1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the reports [1][3][6][7][8] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Yesterday's steel prices remained stable. Steel production continued to decrease and inventories declined. There was a large supply - demand gap for rebar, with good inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coil inventory reduction was still slow. Seasonal decline in apparent demand led to weak demand. Although production cuts and strong raw materials supported steel prices to repair upwards from low levels, the weak demand limited the upward drive. Rebar price fluctuations were expected to be in the 3000 - 3200 range, and hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range. It was recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1] Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the 09 iron ore contract fluctuated. In terms of fundamentals, the supply side was in the shipping peak season, with some mines ramping up production at the end of the year. Although the arrival volume decreased slightly, it was still at a high level in the same period of history. Based on shipping calculations, the arrival volume would remain high in the next two weeks, but it would enter the off - season in the first quarter of next year, and the impact of weather on supply needed attention. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained flat week - on - week, at a historically low level. Some steel mills resumed production, while others were under maintenance. The profitability of steel mills improved, but due to the off - season and many overhauls, the subsequent resumption of production was expected to be limited. In terms of inventory, iron ore inventory was at a high level in the same period, and it would continue to accumulate due to high future arrival volumes and low off - port volume in the off - season. Although the short - term resumption of molten iron production was limited, winter storage and pre - festival restocking might support the ore price. In the future, iron ore would transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand weakness. The price was capped by high inventory, and the demand could not absorb the supply increase when priced above $110 in the off - season. There was support from the restocking expectation of steel mills with low inventory. In the short term, the focus was on the molten iron trend and the restocking rhythm of steel mills, and in the long term, on the negotiation situation. It was expected that the iron ore price would fluctuate strongly. Short - term operations were recommended, with the reference range of 770 - 840 [3] Coke Industry - Yesterday, the coke futures rebounded in a fluctuating manner. On the spot side, the third round of price cuts for coke was implemented on December 22, and the fourth round was launched on the 29th. The port price fell in advance and was currently stable with a weak trend. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market showed mixed trends, and the auction prices of various coal types showed signs of bottom - rebounding. Coke price adjustment lagged behind coking coal, squeezing the coking profit and reducing the start - up rate. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, molten iron output declined, and steel prices fluctuated at a low level, with the intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased their inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly. Coke supply - demand weakened. The coke futures fell in advance, and the spot price decline referred to the coking coal decline space. For strategies, after three rounds of spot price cuts, the basis weakened, and the expected - driven rebound was difficult to sustain. It was recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies, and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [6] Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, the coking coal futures rebounded in a fluctuating manner. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal turned to a mixed trend, Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with futures, the auction failure rate rebounded again recently, and traders were cautious about restocking. The thermal coal market continued to decline. On the supply side, near the end of the year, coking coal production might continue to decline; for imported coal, the port inventory was at a high level at the end of the year, and mines carried out shipping volume ramping up. On the demand side, steel mill losses and maintenance decreased, and molten iron output remained stable, but the coking profit declined, the daily output of coking plants decreased slightly, and the market's restocking demand weakened. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, coke enterprises, mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased their inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly. The policy focused on ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants. For strategies, the rebound expectation was over - priced in advance. Unilateral operations were recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon price continued to be strong, breaking through the previous pressure level, and the spot market was also strong, with discussions about capacity elimination in Shaanxi. On the supply side, this week's ferrosilicon production continued to decline, but the decline narrowed compared with the previous period. The production cuts were mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu, while production in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai increased slightly. In terms of steel - making demand, the molten iron output was basically flat week - on - week, with some steel mills under maintenance and some resuming production. With more large - scale overhauls and weak demand, the molten iron output was expected to remain stable in the short term, and the steel - making demand would be stable. In terms of non - steel demand, downstream restocking increased near the end of the month, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. In terms of exports, overseas inquiries and transactions were okay near Christmas, but the acceptance of high prices was insufficient, and there were still impacts from the re - export trade of Russia and North Korea. On the cost side, the semi - coke price decreased slightly, and low - cost power regions had an advantage. Looking forward, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needed to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation was priced in. The improvement expectation of the demand side was insufficient, and the price lacked upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the expectation change and the semi - coke price. In the short term, the price was expected to fluctuate within the range of 5650 - 5900 [8] - Ferromanganese: Recently, ferromanganese was strongly running, and the spot market was stable. On the supply side, the production increased slightly, and the supply remained at a normal level in the same period of history. Recently, new capacities in Inner Mongolia were released, and the short - term production still had room for growth. There were rumors of production cuts in Guangxi and Guizhou, but they were not implemented. In terms of steel - making demand, the molten iron output was basically flat week - on - week, with some steel mills under maintenance and some resuming production. With more large - scale overhauls and weak demand, the molten iron output was expected to remain stable in the short term, and the steel - making demand would be stable. The price - pressing sentiment of steel mills in the copper - aluminum industry was strong. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory remained at a high level, and the inflection point had not appeared, and the supply - demand contradiction still existed. On the cost side, the manganese ore price was stable, and some overseas mines raised their January quotes. The low - inventory situation supported the ore price. Overall, ferromanganese was in a state of self - supply surplus but relatively balanced in the whole market. The manganese ore supported the ferromanganese price, and the key was the production cut amplitude and the end - year winter storage restocking expectation of steel mills. The short - term supply - demand contradiction was priced in, and there was no clear trend - reversal signal. It was expected that the price would fluctuate downward. The strategy was mainly range - trading, with the reference range of 5700 - 6000 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3300 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 increased by 4 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China and South China remained unchanged, while the North China price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and 3 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2940 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 3209 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 226.5 tons, with no significant change. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons to 796.8 tons. Rebar production increased by 2.7 tons to 184.4 tons, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.6 tons to 293.5 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons to 1258.0 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons to 434.3 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 377.2 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 2.5 to 11.3, a decrease of 20.8%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 1.7 to 833.6 tons, rebar apparent demand decreased by 6.0 to 202.7 tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 8.8 to 307.0 tons [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed different trends. The 05 - contract basis of some iron ore powders increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.0 to 22.0, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 to 20.0 [3] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swaps remained unchanged, while the Platts 62% Fe increased by 1.0 to 107.9 [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons to 2646.7 tons, the global shipping volume decreased by 128.0 tons to 3464.5 tons, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 74.7 tons to 11054.0 tons [3] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average off - port volume increased by 1.6 to 315.1 tons, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 320.6 tons to 6234.3 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 212.6 tons to 6987.1 tons [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons to 15858.66 tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 136.2 tons to 8860.2 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 19.0 [3] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract decreased by 6, and the 05 contract increased by 35. The coking profit decreased by 11 [6] Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) price remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, and the coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) price increased by 5 to 1159 yuan/ton [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output increased by 0.3 to 46.8 tons [6] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 12.2 tons to 912.6 tons, the all - sample coking plant coke inventory increased by 1.1 tons to 92.2 tons, the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased by 8.5 tons to 642.2 tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.5 tons to 178.2 tons [6] Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remained at - 0.2 tons [6] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) price increased by 5 to 1159 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract increased by 35, and the 05 contract increased by 32. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 1 [7] Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price remained unchanged at 230 US dollars/ton, the Jingtang Port Australian main - coking coal ex - warehouse price increased by 20 to 1560 yuan/ton, and the Guangzhou Port Australian thermal coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 1.9 to 698 yuan/ton [7] Supply - The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons [7] Demand - The all - sample coking plant daily average output decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output increased by 0.3 to 46.8 tons [7] Inventory Changes - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 134.9 tons, the all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory increased by 3.4 tons to 1039.7 tons, the 247 - steel - mill coking coal inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 806.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 13.3 tons to 299.5 tons [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon: The spot prices in different regions increased to varying degrees, and the main - contract closing price increased by 74 to 5676 yuan/ton. Ferromanganese: The spot prices in different regions also increased, and the main - contract closing price increased by 80 to 5862 yuan/ton [8] Cost and Profit - Ferrosilicon: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the production profit increased. Ferromanganese: The manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port remained stable, and the production costs in different regions remained unchanged [8] Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipping volume increased by 15 to 85.2 tons, the arrival volume increased by 2.5 to 40.8 tons, and the off - port volume decreased by 3.5 to 55.7 tons [8] Supply - Ferrosilicon: The production decreased slightly, and the production enterprise start - up rate decreased. Ferromanganese: The start - up rate increased, and the production increased [8] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons, the five - major - steel - product output decreased by 1.1 tons to 796.8 tons, the ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.8 tons, and the ferromanganese demand increased by 0.0 to 11.3 tons [8] Inventory Changes - Ferrosilicon: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons to 6.4 tons, and the average available days decreased by 0.4 to 15.4 days. Ferromanganese: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons to 38.6 tons, and the average available days increased by 0.1 to 16 days [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are supported by production cuts and strong raw materials but lack upward momentum due to weak demand. The price range for rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils between 3150 - 3350. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and avoid going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply will remain high in the short term, but the demand is limited. The price range is expected to be between 770 - 840. Short-term long positions can be attempted [4]. Coke Industry - Coke supply and demand have weakened. It is recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal prices are expected to decline. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon supply and demand contradictions still exist, and prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the Ningxia production cost [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the rebar spot price in East China increased from 3290 to 3300 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while the cost and profit of different steel products showed different trends. For example, the cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar decreased by 17 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot-rolled coils decreased by 16 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the production of five major steel products decreased slightly. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, and the rebar inventory decreased by 4.0% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 19.8%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.2%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.9%, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 2.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of some varieties decreased. The 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 2.8%, the global shipping volume decreased by 3.6%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 0.5%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 4.9%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 3.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 1.1%, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6%, and the available days of inventory for 64 steel mills decreased by 9.5% [4]. Coke Industry Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke decreased, and the coke futures prices also decreased. The coking profit decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly coke production decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, and the steel mills' willingness to suppress coke prices increased [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.4%, and the inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased slightly, and the coking coal futures prices decreased [8]. Supply - The weekly production of raw coal and clean coal decreased slightly, and the coal mine inventory increased [8]. Demand - The pig iron output remained stable, the coking profit decreased, and the coking plant's production decreased slightly [8]. Inventory - The inventories of washing plants, coking enterprises, coal mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures increased slightly, and the spot prices remained unchanged [9]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions remained stable, and the production profits remained unchanged [9]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the ferromanganese production increased slightly [9]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, the steel mill's procurement volume decreased slightly, and the demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese remained stable [9]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly [9].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a slight increase in spot prices, but the basis remains weak, with production cuts and inventory management being key strategies to address seasonal demand weakness [1][2][4]. Supply - December production has decreased, continuing the trend of production cuts, with a reduction of nearly 200,000 tons, representing a 6.7% month-on-month decline [2] - Current iron and steel output is at 2.26 million tons, down by 30,000 tons from the previous week [2] - The production of major steel products has shown signs of slowing down, with rebar production down by 30,000 tons to 181.7 million tons, below the required level of 208 million tons [2] Demand - Seasonal demand has weakened significantly, with December demand for major steel products at 8.46 million tons, down from 8.75 million tons in November and showing a notable year-on-year decline [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil demand have both decreased, with rebar demand down by 56,000 tons to 208 million tons and hot-rolled coil demand down by 137,000 tons to 298.3 million tons [2] Inventory - Steel mills are reducing production, but inventory levels are still being managed effectively, with a total inventory reduction of 370,000 tons to 12.95 million tons [3] - Rebar inventory decreased by 270,000 tons to 4.52 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 64,000 tons to 3.91 million tons [3] Outlook - The steel market is expected to maintain production cuts and inventory reductions, with a 6.7% decline in high-level production supporting inventory management [4] - The inventory structure remains differentiated, with rebar showing good inventory reduction while hot-rolled coil inventory remains relatively high [4] - Steel prices are expected to stabilize and recover slightly due to production cuts and stable coking coal prices, but weak demand may limit upward momentum [4] - Rebar prices are projected to remain in the range of 3000-3200, while hot-rolled coil prices are expected to be between 3150-3350 [4]

钢材产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 周敏波 Z0010559 | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现信 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某美 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3270 | 3270 | 0 | 188 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3150 | 3160 | -10 | 68 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3250 | 3260 | -10 | 168 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3060 | 3069 | -d | 210 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3093 | 3103 | -10 | 177 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3082 | 3085 | -3 | 188 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3240 | 3250 | -10 | 0 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3170 | 3190 | -20 | -70 | | | 热卷现货 (华南) | 3250 | 3260 | -10 | 1 ...

1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Steel**: Affected by the news that Vanke might be bailed out, the real estate industry's expectations are being restored, and the prices of the black series have risen from their lows. After the Fed cut interest rates and expanded its balance - sheet last night, the overall sentiment is dovish, which is expected to boost the market. The previous decline in steel prices was mainly due to the fall of raw material coking coal prices. The steel fundamentals show a trend of production cut and inventory reduction. The downward driving force is not strong, but the overall demand is average with a year - on - year decline, and the falling iron - water production cycle suppresses raw material prices. Steel will maintain a volatile trend, with the focus on the 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan ranges for May contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil respectively. Considering the differentiation in inventory reduction between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the convergence arbitrage of the January hot - rolled coil - rebar spread can be continued, and the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage should be exited [2] - **Iron Ore**: Stimulated by real estate利好 news, iron ore futures rebounded yesterday. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, steel mills continued to cut production, iron - water production declined, steel mill maintenance increased, steel prices fluctuated at a low level, and the profitability of steel mills improved. From the data of the five major steel products, steel production, inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined seasonally. In terms of inventory, iron ore port inventory increased, the port clearance volume decreased, and the equity inventory of steel mills increased. Looking ahead, as steel mills' iron - water production decreases and steel prices fluctuate at a low level, the market will gradually weaken, and iron ore valuation will decline. For strategies, hold a bearish view on iron ore futures with a volatile trend, and short the iron ore 2605 contract on rallies, with the operating range of 730 - 780 [6] - **Coke**: Coke futures rebounded yesterday. On the spot side, the second round of coke price cuts started on December 10 and is expected to be implemented on the 12th, with short - term price cut expectations still remaining, and port prices have fallen in advance. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, the auction prices of various coal types have continued to fall back, the adjustment of coke prices lags behind that of coking coal, coking profits have been restored, and the start - up rate has increased. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, iron - water production has declined, steel prices have rebounded, steel mill profits have been restored, and there is an intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants have increased inventory, while ports and steel mills have reduced inventory, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. Coke futures have fallen in advance, and the spot price decline refers to the downward space of coking coal and is still in the bottom - finding stage. For strategies, hold a bearish view on coke futures with a volatile trend, with the range of 1450 - 1600, and recommend long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage [8] - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal futures declined yesterday. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal continued to fall, Mongolian coal quotes decreased, and the recent auction failure rate has remained at 30 - 50%. The power coal market has continued to decline, and the coal spot market has become more relaxed again. On the supply side, coal mine shipments have worsened, daily output has slightly decreased, coal mines have accumulated inventory again due to poor sales, and coal mine production may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imports, port inventory has continued to increase, Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down, and the recent customs clearance volume has rebounded to a high level. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, iron - water production has declined, coking plants' start - up rate has slightly increased after profit recovery, and the market's inventory replenishment demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, coking plants and steel mills have reduced inventory, while coal mines, coal - washing plants, ports, and ports of entry have increased inventory, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. In terms of policies, ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants remains the main theme, and the over - capacity pattern continues. For strategies, coking coal spot prices continue to fall, the futures market has declined significantly, the main contract has shifted to coking coal 2605. Hold a bearish view on coking coal futures with a volatile trend, with the range of 1000 - 1150, and recommend long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage [8] 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally rose. For example, rebar spot in East China increased from 3260 yuan/ton to 3280 yuan/ton, and the rebar 05 contract rose from 3079 yuan/ton to 3117 yuan/ton. The cost of steel billets increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2960 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 44 yuan to - 71 yuan [2] - **Production**: The daily average iron - water production decreased by 2.4 to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The production of the five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decline of 3.1%. Rebar production decreased by 16.8 tons to 189.3 tons, a decline of 8.1%, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 4.7 tons to 314.3 tons, a decline of 1.5% [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decline of 2.5%. Rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 503.8 tons, a decline of 5.2%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.5 tons to 400.4 tons, a decline of 0.1% [2] - **Trading and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 2.2 to 11.4 tons, an increase of 23.5%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 864.2 tons, a decline of 2.7%. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 11.0 tons to 217.0 tons, a decline of 4.8%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.4 tons to 314.9 tons, a decline of 1.7% [2] Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders all increased slightly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder increased from 830.4 yuan/ton to 835.9 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore powders decreased. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at 24.0, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 4.0 to - 42.5, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4.0 to 18.5 [6] - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 218.8 tons to 2480.5 tons, a decline of 8.1%. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 45.4 tons to 3368.6 tons, an increase of 1.4%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decline of 4.3% [6] - **Demand**: The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) decreased by 8.5 tons to 318.5 tons, a decline of 2.6%. The national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decline of 0.8%, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a decline of 2.0% [6] - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory (weekly) increased by 48.2 tons to 15348.98 tons, an increase of 0.3%. The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 42.3 tons to 8984.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days, a decline of 5.0% [6] Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract increased by 13 to 1527, and the 05 contract increased by 24 to 1701. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 to - 54 [8] - **Supply**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 tons to 46.6 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8] - **Demand**: The iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0% [8] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 1.7 tons to 883.0 tons, a decline of 0.2%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 4.7 tons to 76.4 tons, an increase of 6.5%, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 tons to 625.3 tons, a decline of 0.0%. The port inventory decreased by 6.1 tons to 181.3 tons, a decline of 3.3% [8] - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 2.2 tons to - 1.3 tons, an increase of 166.8% [8] Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal (warehouse - receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) decreased. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 21 to 983, and the 05 contract decreased by 13 to 1070. The 01 - contract basis increased by 16 to 197, and the 05 - contract basis increased by 8 to 90. The sample coal - mine profit (weekly) decreased by 16, a decline of 2.9% [8] - **Supply**: The raw - coal production decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3%, and the clean - coal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [8] - **Demand**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 tons to 46.6 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8] - **Inventory**: The Fenwei coal - mine clean - coal inventory increased by 20.1 tons to 127.6 tons, an increase of 18.7%. The all - sample coking - plant coking - coal inventory decreased by 1.1 tons to 1009.2 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The 247 - steel - mill coking - coal inventory decreased by 3.0 tons to 798.3 tons, a decline of 0.4%. The port inventory increased by 2.0 tons to 296.5 tons, an increase of 0.7% [8]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View This week, the molten iron production decreased seasonally while the apparent demand was decent, reaching 888 million tons. Under the background of production cuts and inventory reduction, the contradictions in the steel market were not significant. The decline in molten iron production suppressed the price of iron ore. Although the supply - demand contradictions in the steel market were not prominent, iron ore and coking coal fluctuated weakly. It is expected that steel prices will experience a central decline within a range, with rebar referring to the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coil referring to the 3250 - 3400 range. The unilateral driving force is not obvious. Attention can be paid to the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage operation of the January contract, as well as the convergence arbitrage of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread of the January contract [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and contracts mostly declined. For example, the rebar spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract price decreased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of most steel products decreased, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 12 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average molten iron production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons, a decline of 0.9%, while the electric - furnace rebar production increased by 2.6 tons, an increase of 9.5% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decline of 2.3%. The rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decline of 4.0% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 9.3, a decline of 0.5%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 6.2 tons to 888.0 tons, a decline of 0.7% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Yesterday, the iron ore futures fluctuated. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin continued to decline, the molten iron volume decreased, and the steel mill restocking demand increased. The inventory of ports increased, the port clearance volume increased, and the steel mill's equity iron ore inventory decreased. Looking forward, the molten iron volume decreased this week, and the steel mill inventory contradiction improved significantly. With the current steel mill profit margin and inventory accumulation level, it is not enough to trigger a negative feedback. Without new macro - driving factors, it is expected that iron ore will be difficult to have an independent unilateral market. In the short term, it will operate weakly under the condition of futures discount repair and the latest decline in molten iron [5]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some iron ore varieties increased slightly, such as the PB powder's spot price in Rizhao Port increased by 1 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.0 to 26.5, an increase of 12.8% [5]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 548.2 tons to 2817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, a decline of 6.8% [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 1.7 tons to 331.6 tons, an increase of 0.5% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 108.6 tons to 15210.12 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decline of 0.7% [5]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Yesterday, the coke futures fluctuated and declined, and the night - session continued to be weak. The port trade quotation declined, and after the fourth - round price increase of mainstream coke enterprises was fully implemented, there was an expectation of price reduction. The coking coal futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend, and the spot price weakened, showing a pattern of futures - spot resonance decline. For coke, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and it is recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market with a reference range of 1500 - 1650 and recommend the 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage. For coking coal, the market supply has become looser, and it is also recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market with a reference range of 1000 - 1120 and recommend the 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage [8]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke futures and some spot varieties decreased. For example, the coke 01 contract price decreased by 12 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.7%. The coking profit increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 24 yuan/ton [8]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal futures and some spot varieties also decreased. The coking coal 01 contract price decreased by 14 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.2%. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 6 yuan/ton to 587 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%. Some coal mines in Shanxi have stopped production, and the imported coking coal from Mongolia has increased significantly in customs clearance since November [8]. - **Demand**: The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7% [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The coking coal inventory in some sectors increased, while in some sectors decreased. For example, the fine - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 10.4 tons to 98.0 tons, an increase of 11.9% [8]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap calculation result increased by 1.5 tons to - 43 tons, an increase of 34.2% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - This week, the seasonal decline in hot metal production and stable apparent demand led to a relatively balanced steel market. However, the weak performance of iron ore and coking coal caused steel prices to decline within a certain range. The expected price range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400 yuan. There is no obvious unilateral driving force, and attention can be paid to the arbitrage operations of going long on rebar and short on iron ore in the January contract, as well as the convergence arbitrage of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the January contract [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, iron ore futures fluctuated. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipments decreased last week, while the arrivals at 45 ports increased significantly. On the demand side, the steel mills' profit margins continued to decline, hot metal production decreased, and the demand for restocking increased. In the inventory aspect, port inventories increased, the port clearance volume increased, and the steel mills' equity iron ore inventories decreased. Without new macro - driving factors, it is difficult for iron ore to have an independent unilateral market, and it is expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, coke futures declined with oscillations, and the night session continued to be weak. After the fourth round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises was fully implemented, there are expectations of price cuts. The coking industry's profit has been restored, and production has increased. On the demand side, steel mills' losses have increased, hot metal production has declined, and steel prices have fluctuated weakly, so steel mills have the intention to suppress coke prices. Coking coal futures showed a weak oscillating trend, and the spot market weakened, resulting in a pattern of simultaneous decline in futures and spot. The supply side has some short - term disruptions, and the import volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly. It is recommended to take a bearish view on both coke and coking coal in a volatile manner, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage for both [8]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan; rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 decreased by 11 yuan, 11 yuan, and 6 yuan respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in North China and South China decreased by 10 yuan, while the price in East China remained unchanged; hot - rolled coil futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 decreased by 14 yuan, 13 yuan, and 11 yuan respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 10 yuan, and the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 12 yuan, 2 yuan, and 12 yuan respectively. The profits of rebar in East China and North China decreased by 2 yuan and 12 yuan respectively, while the profit in South China decreased by 2 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons to 206.1 tons, a decrease of 0.9%, among which electric - furnace production increased by 2.6 tons to 29.3 tons, an increase of 9.5%, and converter production decreased by 4.4 tons to 176.7 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.0 tons to 319.0 tons, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decrease of 2.3%. Rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decrease of 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 400.9 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 9.3, a decrease of 0.5%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.2 to 888.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.8 to 227.9 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.2 to 320.2 tons, a decrease of 1.3% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 01 contract for some iron ore varieties decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.0 to 26.5, an increase of 12.8% [5]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of PB powder and Jinbuba powder at Rizhao Port increased by 1 yuan, while the prices of other varieties remained unchanged. The Singapore Exchange's 62% Fe swap increased by 0.1 to 104.9 dollars/ton, and the Platts 62% Fe increased by 0.8 to 107.4 [5]. Supply - The weekly arrivals at 45 ports increased by 548.2 tons to 2817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%. The global weekly shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 6.8%. The monthly national import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [5]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 1.7 tons to 331.6 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The monthly national pig iron production decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The monthly national crude steel production decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [5]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventories increased by 108.6 tons to 15210.12 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The imported iron ore inventories of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 20 days [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the prices of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and coke futures contracts 01 and 05 decreased. The coking industry's profit increased by 11 yuan to - 24 yuan [8]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal futures contracts 01 and 05 decreased, and the sample coal mine profit decreased by 6 yuan to 587 yuan [8]. Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.4 tons to 851.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3%, and the clean coal production decreased by 1.8 tons to 433.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4% [8]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills increased [8]. Inventory Changes - Coke total inventories increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. Coking coal inventories showed a mixed trend, with some increasing and some decreasing [8]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 1.5 tons to - 43 tons, an increase of 34.2% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Bottle Chip (PR)**: The market is expected to be in a weak oscillation state. With the implementation of production cuts and potential inventory reduction, there is room for the processing fee to expand. It is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [8]. - **Staple Fiber (PF)**: The market will experience short - term oscillation and face medium - term pressure. It is also advisable to go long on PR and short on PF [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bottle Chip (PR) 3.1.1 Valuation and Profit - The cost of polymerization has decreased, and the spot processing fee of bottle chips has recovered to around 350 yuan/ton. The export profit has also improved, and the internal - external price difference has narrowed [50]. - The bottle chip - slice spread has been at a historical low since 2024, and some producers may switch production. The short - fiber - bottle chip spread is currently at a high valuation, and it is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [27]. - The bottle chip - PVC spread is at a high level, with limited further substitution drive. The bottle chip has high cost - effectiveness compared to PP, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [28][29]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Operation - **Production and Operation**: The effective production capacity has reached 2.168 billion tons. This week, the operating rate dropped to 86.5%, but the weekly output remained at a high level [33]. - **Raw Material End**: The absolute inventory of PTA is still at a low level, and the MEG port inventory in East China is also at a certain level [40][46]. - **Inventory**: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has decreased. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories is about 18 days, and the social inventory is expected to be 3.02 million tons in July [55]. - **Device Changes**: Production cuts are being implemented as expected. For example, Yisheng Hainan has shut down 1.25 million tons of production capacity, and Chongqing Wankai has postponed its shutdown [60]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate has remained stable. In 2025, from January to May, the consumption of soft drinks and edible oils was relatively weak, but there are still new production lines being put into operation in the beverage industry. The demand for sheet materials is average, and the supermarket consumption has improved month - on - month [64][70]. - **Export**: From January to May, the export increased rapidly year - on - year, but in June, it was affected by freight rates. The traditional important export destinations have maintained good growth, and the re - export trade to North America through South Korea and Mexico is also showing positive trends [83][88]. 3.1.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In July - August, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. Assuming that the production cuts of large manufacturers are implemented on schedule and the downstream demand increases by 5% compared to the same period last year, the market may experience a slight inventory reduction in July [95][96]. 3.2 Staple Fiber (PF) 3.2.1 Valuation - The PF basis has remained stable in oscillation, and the futures - spot structure has maintained a back structure. The processing fee on the futures market has recovered [101][110]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Operation - **Production**: The operating rate of staple fiber factories is at a high level, with sporadic production cuts. The average operating rate of direct - spinning staple fiber is 93%, and the operating rate of spinning - used direct - spinning staple fiber is 96% (down 1%) [112][115]. - **Inventory**: Downstream customers are on the sidelines, and the inventory of polyester filament has rapidly increased again [118]. - **Export**: The export data in May was good [124]. - **Profit**: With the decrease in cost, most profits have recovered, but polyester chips are still in a loss state [125]. - **Downstream**: The operating rate of polyester yarn has slightly decreased. Yarn replenishment is average, mainly consuming raw material inventory, and the finished product inventory has increased. The profit of polyester yarn is generally better than last year, and the reverse substitution between virgin and recycled materials continues [135][140][141]. - **Weaving**: Some weaving machines have reduced their operating rates seasonally [150][153].