Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation of the bond market remains unchanged due to the "moderately loose" monetary policy orientation and high tariff uncertainty. Short - term, the bond market, especially long - term varieties, is under pressure as tariff uncertainties are settled, risk - aversion sentiment cools, and commodities and the stock market strengthen. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of going long on short - term and shorting long - term bonds. Also, pay attention to the marginal changes in July economic data [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: On August 14, weak financial data and the stock market's performance had limited impact on the bond market. Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield up 1.4bp to 1.734%. The central bank conducted net repurchase, resulting in a net withdrawal of 320 billion yuan. Inter - bank funds were loose, short - term fund rates changed slightly, and medium - long - term funds were stable [8][9][10] - **Conclusion and Suggestions**: Long - term, the bullish foundation remains. Short - term, long - term bond varieties are under pressure. Short - term 2 - year and 5 - year varieties may be more resilient. Consider a strategy of going long on short - term and shorting long - term bonds. Pay attention to July economic data after the central bank's 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation [11][12] 2. Industry News - The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright repurchase operation on August 15. From January to July, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Two discount policies were detailed, and post - policy evaluations will be carried out. 188 billion yuan in investment subsidies for equipment upgrades supported by ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds in 2025 have been allocated, driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment. There are international news about US - Russia cooperation proposals, potential US sanctions on Russia, and a call for the Fed to cut interest rates [13][14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Includes data on trading, spreads, and trends of Treasury bond futures contracts [6][15][16] - **Money Market**: Involves data on SHIBOR, inter - bank repurchase rates, etc. [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Contains data on Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixed - rate curves [34]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the Politburo meeting in July maintained the stance of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, indicating that the easing orientation remains unchanged. With high tariff uncertainties and potential risks of post - export - rush decline, the bull - market foundation for bonds remains. However, in the short term, the joint statement on tariff exemption extension between China and the US reduces uncertainties, cools down risk - aversion sentiment, and the strength of commodities and the stock market put pressure on the bond market, especially long - term bonds. Considering the supportive factors for the capital market in August, short - term bonds (2 - year and 5 - year) may be more resilient, and a strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds is recommended [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: The stock market reached a new high, but treasury bond futures fluctuated and recovered, possibly boosted by rumors of a 6 - month buy - back repurchase and a potential reduction in the operating rate [8]. - **Cash Bond Yields**: Yields of major term interest rate cash bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with long - term yields dropping by about 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.72%, down 0.75bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank continued net withdrawals, but inter - bank funds remained loose. There were 138.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index loosened, short - term funding rates changed slightly, and medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - **Conclusion**: Long - term, the bull - market foundation for bonds remains, but short - term, long - term bonds are under pressure. Short - term bonds may be more resilient, and a "long short - term, short long - term" strategy is recommended [11][12]. 2. Industry News - **China - US Relations**: The US and China issued a joint statement. The US promised to continue adjusting tariffs on Chinese goods, and both sides suspended relevant tariff and non - tariff counter - measures for 90 days. China also continued to suspend relevant measures on the unreliable entity list [13]. - **Domestic Policies**: Three departments jointly issued a plan for fiscal subsidies on personal consumption loans, and nine departments issued a plan for fiscal subsidies on loans to service - industry business entities [13]. - **US News**: Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates, threatened to sue Fed Chairman Powell, and planned to nominate E.J. Anthony as the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. US Treasury Secretary suggested a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September. US July CPI and core CPI data were released, and the market expected a high probability of a rate cut in September. The US national debt exceeded $37 trillion [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on trading data of treasury bond futures contracts on August 13, including prices, trading volumes, and open interests, is provided. Also, there are data on cross - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and price trends of the main contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: Data on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase rate changes are presented [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves is given [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Long - term, the Politburo meeting in July indicated that the "moderately loose" monetary policy orientation remains unchanged, and high tariff uncertainty and potential export - related risks suggest the bull - market foundation for bonds is intact. Short - term, the joint statement on tariff exemption extension reduces uncertainty, cools risk - aversion sentiment, and with the strength of commodities and the stock market, the bond market, especially long - term bonds, is under pressure. Given the supportive factors for the August capital market, short - term 2 - year and 5 - year bond varieties may be more resilient, and a strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds is recommended. Also, attention should be paid to the marginal changes in July economic data this week [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Performance**: The stock - bond seesaw continued. Bank - to - bank funds were loose but had limited impact, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Interest rates of major on - the - run bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 yield rising 0.75bp to 1.725% by 16:30 [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank conducted consecutive net withdrawals, but inter - bank funds remained loose. There were 1607 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank carried out 1146 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 461 billion yuan. The inter - bank funds sentiment index eased, short - term fund rates fluctuated slightly, and medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - **Conclusion**: Long - term, the bull - market foundation for bonds remains. Short - term, long - term bonds are under pressure. Short - term bonds may be more resilient, and a strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds is recommended. Attention should be paid to July economic data [11][12]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Sino - US Relations**: On August 12, China and the US issued a joint statement. The US promised to continue adjusting tariff measures on Chinese goods, and both sides continued to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [13]. - **Domestic Policies**: Multiple policies were introduced, including a personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy, a service industry business loan subsidy policy, an expansion of the use scope of housing provident funds in Suzhou [13][14]. - **International Relations**: US and Russian leaders are scheduled to meet on August 15. Different parties have expressed their attitudes and demands regarding the Russia - Ukraine peace process, and there are many differences among them [15]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on trading data, spreads, and trends of treasury bond futures was provided, including cross - maturity spreads, cross - variety spreads, and the trends of main contracts [6][16][21]. - **Money Market**: Information on the money market was presented, including the term structure and trends of SHIBOR, and the weighted interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase [25][30][35]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [37].