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食品饮料行业跟踪报告:茅台控量稳价,批价反弹回升
Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [1][33] Core Insights - The liquor industry is entering a phase of rapid performance clearing, with demand expected to show weak recovery as policy pressures ease. The industry is currently at a low valuation, and pessimistic expectations are fully priced in. The top liquor companies are stabilizing prices and increasing dividends, making them attractive for investment [4] - In the consumer goods sector, there are high-growth opportunities, with some segments benefiting from new products and channels. The market is likely to give a valuation premium to "scarce" growth stocks, such as Wancheng Group and Dongpeng Beverage, which are showing good growth trends [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 1.63% compared to the index's decline of 0.34%, ranking 22nd among 31 sub-industries [5][6] - Within the food and beverage sub-sectors, the highest to lowest performance was as follows: dairy (-1.05%), beer (-1.31%), seasoning and fermentation products (-1.35%), liquor (-1.50%), snacks (-1.77%), soft drinks (-2.16%), meat products (-2.34%), other alcoholic beverages (-3.26%), pre-processed foods (-3.45%), health products (-3.67%), and baked goods (-4.48%) [5] Company-Specific Insights - Guizhou Moutai has implemented a volume control policy, leading to a rapid recovery in product prices. The price of Feitian Moutai rebounded from a low of 1499 yuan to 1590 yuan as of December 14, 2025, following a temporary halt in product distribution to dealers [5] - Salted Fish has clarified its focus on major product strategies during its dealer conference, emphasizing category upgrades and channel transformations to solidify growth foundations. The company aims to focus on "Chinese-flavored snacks," "healthy high-protein snacks," and "healthy sweet snacks" [5]