食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《春节动销趋势向好，聚焦龙头布局 景气赛道—行业周报》-2026.2.23 《包装水行业发展稳健，头部分化孕 育 结 构 性 机 遇 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.11 《复苏态势明朗，板块预期乐观—行 业周报》-2026.2.8 节后需求稳健格局优化，健康功能饮品长期向好 ——行业周报 | 张宇光（分析师） | 张思敏（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | zhangsimin@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790525080001 | zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：春节动销回暖结构分化，看好健康化饮品赛道龙头 2 月 23 日-2 月 27 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 1.5%，一级子行业排名第 2 ...

食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《春节动销趋势向好，聚焦龙头布局 景气赛道—行业周报》-2026.2.23 《包装水行业发展稳健，头部分化孕 育 结 构 性 机 遇 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.11 《复苏态势明朗，板块预期乐观—行 业周报》-2026.2.8 节后需求稳健格局优化，健康功能饮品长期向好 ——行业周报 | 张宇光（分析师） | 张思敏（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | zhangsimin@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790525080001 | zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：春节动销回暖结构分化，看好健康化饮品赛道龙头 2 月 23 日-2 月 27 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 1.5%，一级子行业排名第 2 ...

投资建议 白酒：春节旺销窗口收官，结合渠道反馈，我们认为春节白酒动销整体符合市场预期，预计全渠道动销量同比下滑 10~15%。其中，略超预期的反馈在于：1.节前&节内飞天茅台批价表现相对不错、未有显性回落；2.部分区域节内大众 价位产品有零星终端补货行为，当然这也与近年来终端小批量、高频次进货习惯相关，目的是规避资金占用和存货跌 价风险，但仍反映一定的动销韧性。 从节后首周反馈来看，行业价盘整体趋稳、略好于节前市场预期，目前原箱飞天茅台批价约 1690 元、环比小幅回落。 我们认为当前已经处于行业价盘筑底窗口，酒企普遍在发力去库存、春节反馈已可见一斑。本身春节飞天茅台超预期 的动销表现已进一步维稳了渠道对行业景气度的预期、修复了渠道库存容忍阈值，间接舒缓了行业秩序压力。 我们看好当前白酒板块配置价值、低预期下胜率可观，预期先行、节后亦具备自上而下催化，例如近期上海发布《关 于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》，进一步调减住房限购政策、优化住房公积金贷款政策等。中期维度伴随 "反内卷"政策持续落地、企业 ROE 有望改善，并传导至企业招待等支出提升、居民收入预期改善，拐点逐步临近。 配置方向建议：1）品牌力突 ...

一只去骨鸡爪，能做到怎样的生意规模？卓希集团旗下品牌脱骨侠给出了答案：连续4年拿下全国无骨 鸡爪销量第一，累计卖出1亿+罐，年GMV超20亿元，线下覆盖10万+终端，成为名副其实的"全球鸡爪 专家"。 从2021年品牌上线到跻身行业头部，脱骨侠用五年时间，把一个休闲零食单品，做成了融合地域风味、 打通全球供应链、线上线下全渠道的标杆品牌，背后是对产品、供应链和渠道的三重深耕。 iiMedia Research(艾媒咨询)发布的《2025年中国肉制休闲零食行业发展状况与消费行为调查数据》显 示，2025年中国休闲零食行业规模为11804亿元，2027年预计将达到12378亿元。随着休闲零食市场规模 的扩大，肉制食品从餐桌上的硬菜，摇身一变成为下午茶、追剧时的好搭子。 而消费者购买肉制休闲零食时，最关注的因素就是味道口感是否喜欢，占比近半数。同时，食品原料和 产品品质也是消费者较为关注的方面。鸡爪在鸡肉制品中拥有独特的口感及丰富的层次，尤为受喜爱。 但其难以摄食、鸡骨多且碎的痛点，使鸡爪食用场景较为有限。 而脱骨侠的起步，踩准了休闲零食消费升级的节奏与去骨鸡爪迎痛点而生的高速发展期。2020年6月， 卓希集团旗下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the integration of high-quality development and health strategies in China's economic landscape, highlighting Tianjin Cuishengsheng Food Co., Ltd. as a leading example in the potato snack industry that aligns with national development goals [1][15]. Group 1: Technological Breakthroughs - The company addresses the challenge of combining health and taste in the snack food sector, overcoming the traditional dilemma of high oil and salt content versus healthiness [3]. - Cuishengsheng utilizes proprietary vacuum low-temperature preservation technology, maintaining nutritional value and flavor while avoiding the pitfalls of traditional frying methods [5]. - This innovation allows the company to produce snacks that are both nutritious and enjoyable, marking a shift in the industry towards healthier options without sacrificing taste [5]. Group 2: Industry Upgrade - Cuishengsheng's development signifies a transition in the potato snack industry from "1.0 puffed era" to "2.0 fresh-cut era," creating a high-value path for traditional agricultural processing [7]. - The company’s approach respects the natural structure of potatoes, enhancing flavor and nutritional retention through innovative processing techniques [7]. - This shift represents a broader industry logic upgrade, focusing on comprehensive value that includes taste, nutrition, and clean labeling [7]. Group 3: Brand and Market Positioning - Cuishengsheng has achieved international recognition, winning awards such as the silver medal at the 2024 Monde Selection for its original flavor, showcasing its competitive edge in the high-end snack market [8]. - The company effectively engages with the Z generation by integrating its products into various social contexts, transforming snacks into social currency and lifestyle items [11]. - Cuishengsheng has established a comprehensive online and offline presence, ensuring product availability and meeting consumer demand for instant gratification [13]. Group 4: Value Empowerment - The company’s growth story illustrates the alignment of its business model with national strategies for high-quality development and health, demonstrating that local enterprises can contribute to broader economic goals [15][17]. - Cuishengsheng’s commitment to innovation, quality, and cultural relevance positions it as a model for other companies in the consumer goods sector, emphasizing the importance of integrating technology and consumer values [17]. - The company’s success reflects a collective effort of numerous market players to strengthen the foundation of the Chinese economy through innovative practices [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial troubles of Liangpinpuzi, a leading snack brand in China, highlighting the debt crisis faced by its controlling shareholder, Ningbo Hanyi, and the potential implications for the company's operations and market confidence [5][6]. Debt Crisis Background - In January 2024, Ningbo Hanyi applied for three loans totaling 300 million yuan from Yunnan International Trust, pledging 53.4 million shares of Liangpinpuzi, which represents 37.8% of its holdings and 13.32% of the company's total shares [7][10]. - The debt has now become overdue, with a principal balance of 280 million yuan, raising concerns in the capital market about the financial stability of the controlling shareholder [7][11]. Company Performance and Financial Struggles - Liangpinpuzi, listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2020, has seen its performance decline significantly, with a net profit drop of 46.26% in 2023 and projected losses for 2025 [8][13]. - The company has initiated a "store closure + price reduction" strategy since the end of 2023, reducing prices on over 500 products by an average of over 20%, but this has not resulted in increased sales, leading to continued pressure on gross margins [13][15]. Management Turmoil - The company has experienced frequent changes in its management team, with the resignation of co-founder Yang Yinfeng in March 2025 and the ongoing search for a permanent general manager [16]. - The financial issues of the controlling shareholder and the operational challenges faced by Liangpinpuzi reflect deeper challenges within the snack industry [16].

Overview - The leisure snack category, particularly candy and chocolate, has faced significant challenges in recent years due to health trends and rising raw material costs, with cocoa prices expected to remain high in 2024 and 2025, having increased several times compared to a decade ago [1][3]. Market Dynamics - In 2024 and 2025, chocolate accounts for approximately 9% of the leisure snack category, while candy holds about 4%, indicating a significant disparity [5]. - Both categories are experiencing negative sales growth, with chocolate sales declining by about 7% year-on-year, while candy's decline is more pronounced, exceeding 10% [5][9]. - The overall market for leisure snacks in traditional retail channels is shrinking, affecting all subcategories, with candy facing more severe pressure than chocolate [5][14]. Seasonal Trends - Chocolate sees higher sales in the autumn and winter months due to increased caloric needs and holiday celebrations, while candy's market share has shown a noticeable decline in 2025 [7][9]. Pricing Trends - The average price per 100 grams for chocolate has been rising, influenced by increased raw material costs, while candy prices have generally decreased [11][14]. - The price index for both chocolate and candy has shown a similar trend, with fluctuations indicating a general decline in prices for leisure snacks overall [13][14]. Regional Insights - In 2025, the market share of candy has declined across seven regions, with the Southwest region having the highest share, while the Northeast has the lowest [16]. - Chocolate's market share is higher in East China, North China, and Southwest regions, with some regions showing growth in 2025 compared to 2024 [17]. Market Concentration - The chocolate category has a high market concentration, with the top three companies holding over 70% of the market share, which is expected to increase further [19]. - In contrast, the candy category has a much lower concentration, with the top three companies holding only about 20% of the market share, indicating a fragmented market [19]. Brand Performance - Among chocolate brands, Meiji has shown significant sales growth, while Mars maintains the largest market share [22][27]. - In the candy sector, all top ten companies reported negative sales growth, with Mars being the only one exceeding 8% market share [36][42]. Product Trends - The chocolate category is seeing a rise in the number of SKUs, particularly in milk chocolate, while the market share of nostalgic products like M&Ms is declining [30][33]. - In the candy category, products like pressed candy and sugar-free options are gaining traction, but traditional candy faces challenges in maintaining market share [43][50]. Future Outlook - The candy and chocolate sectors are expected to evolve with a focus on health-oriented products and innovative marketing strategies, such as IP branding, to enhance consumer appeal and pricing power [53].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the misleading marketing practices in the nut gift box market during the Spring Festival, specifically criticizing the quality and content of products sold by companies like Liangpinpuzi, which misrepresent the proportion of nuts in their gift boxes [6][14]. Summary by Sections Product Misrepresentation - A specific nut gift box from Liangpinpuzi weighing 1800 grams contains nearly 70% of its weight from non-nut items such as drinks and red dates, raising concerns about transparency in product labeling [6][14]. - In a store visit, it was found that a gift box labeled as "healthy nut gift" weighing 1672 grams had only 16% of its weight from nuts, with the majority coming from low-cost fillers like snacks and drinks [11][14]. Marketing and Consumer Rights - The article emphasizes that misleading marketing practices violate consumer rights as per the Consumer Rights Protection Law, which mandates that consumers should be informed about the true nature of the products they purchase [6][14]. - Liangpinpuzi's customer service acknowledged the potential for consumer misunderstanding regarding the product descriptions and stated intentions to improve labeling for better transparency [7][10]. Financial and Operational Challenges - Liangpinpuzi is facing significant operational challenges, with a reported revenue decline of 24.45% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, resulting in a net loss of 1.22 billion yuan [18]. - The company has seen a reduction in its store count from a peak of 3293 to 2227, indicating a shrinkage of nearly one-third over two years, which further impacts revenue growth [18][19]. Governance and Legal Issues - The company is entangled in a shareholder dispute that complicates its governance and operational stability, with ongoing legal issues affecting its financial credibility and investor confidence [19]. - The shareholder dispute involves allegations of "double selling" shares, which has led to court proceedings and a freeze on some of the company's shares, exacerbating its financial difficulties [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights issues in the nut gift box market during the Spring Festival, particularly focusing on misleading marketing practices by companies like Liangpinpuzi, which has resulted in consumer confusion and potential legal implications [3][4][19]. Group 1: Product Marketing Issues - Liangpinpuzi's 1800g nut gift box contains nearly 70% of its weight from non-nut items such as drinks and red dates, raising concerns about transparency in product labeling [3][4][19]. - The company has been criticized for mixing pure nut gift boxes with mixed snack boxes in stores without clear differentiation, leading to consumer mispurchases [8][10]. - Customer service has acknowledged the potential for misunderstanding regarding the contents of the gift boxes and stated that they will work on improving product labeling for better transparency [6][20]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Liangpinpuzi reported a 24.45% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net loss of 1.22 billion yuan, marking a significant downturn in financial performance [4][27]. - The company has seen a reduction in store count from a peak of 3,293 in 2023 to 2,227 by the end of the third quarter of 2025, indicating a shrinkage of nearly one-third in two years [14][28]. - Ongoing legal disputes regarding shareholder equity have compounded the company's operational challenges, affecting investor confidence and financial support [15][28]. Group 3: Industry Context - The snack food industry is experiencing intense competition, with many brands facing similar issues of misleading marketing practices, as seen with other companies like Three Squirrels and Baicaowei [12][26]. - The market is shifting towards a saturated competition phase, which has led to declining revenues for established brands like Liangpinpuzi amid rising operational costs [27].

Market Overview - US stock indices fell across the board, with December JOLTS job openings hitting a five-year low, significantly below expectations [1] - Challenger companies announced 108,000 layoffs in January, the highest for the same period since 2009, with a month-on-month increase of 205% [1] - Initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week, exceeding expectations, indicating a deteriorating economic situation [1] - Hong Kong stocks were also affected, closing down 1.21% [1] Technology Impact - The decline in job openings is partly attributed to advancements in artificial intelligence, such as Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, which outperforms GPT-5.2 in various fields [1] - Financial data service providers like FactSet experienced a significant drop of 10% in stock price, with S&P Global, Moody's, and Nasdaq also declining [1] Automotive Sector - NIO (09866) forecasted adjusted operating profit for Q4 2025 between RMB 700 million (approximately $100 million) and RMB 1.2 billion (approximately $172 million), driven by sales growth and improved product mix [3] - Li Auto (02015) is preparing to launch the new Li L9, featuring advanced technology and a price of RMB 559,800, with a market focus on high-end segments [3] - Both NIO and Li Auto showed positive stock performance, with NIO rising nearly 7% and Li Auto increasing by nearly 4% [3] Consumer Goods - The upcoming Spring Festival is boosting sales in the snack sector, with major companies ramping up production to meet demand [4] - Zhongtong Express (02057) projected total revenue for 2025 between RMB 48.5 billion and RMB 50 billion, a growth of approximately 9.5% to 12.9% from 2024 [4] - SF Express (09699) expects a profit of no less than RMB 238 million for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of over 80% [4] Dairy Industry - Dairy prices are at a low point, with a reduction in dairy cow inventory and losses in farms leading to the exit of inefficient production capacity [5] - The price of milk is expected to stabilize and rise by 2026, benefiting upstream farms and downstream dairy companies [5] - Yurun Dairy (09858) and Mengniu Dairy (02319) saw stock increases of over 4% and 3%, respectively [5] Pharmaceutical Sector - Innovent Biologics (09969) announced a positive earnings forecast, expecting revenue of RMB 2.37 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 134% [6] - The company anticipates its first profitable year with a net profit of around RMB 630 million [6] - Federal Pharmaceutical (03933) received approval for a new drug, enhancing its position in the market [6] Oil Market - Reports indicate that Russia has increased discounts on oil exports to China, aiming to attract demand amid declining purchases from India [7] - If India reduces its imports, China may become the primary buyer of discounted Russian oil, benefiting oil refining companies [7] - Major companies in the Hong Kong market include Sinopec (00386) and Shanghai Petrochemical (00338) [7] Duty-Free Market - China Duty Free Group (01880) reported a nearly 20% year-on-year increase in shopping totals at duty-free stores in Hainan since the new policy implementation [8] - The company holds a significant market share in Hainan's duty-free sector, with a strong supply chain and partnerships with over 1,000 luxury brands [9] - The expansion of duty-free shopping in Hainan is expected to enhance the company's growth prospects [9]