在2012年接受《金融时报》的一次采访中，时任德国总理安格拉·默克尔揭示了欧洲面临的核心困境:"欧 洲如今人口仅占世界总人口的7%多一点，创造了全球GDP（国内生产总值）的约25%，却不得不承担 全球社会支出的50%，那么显而易见，它唯有付出巨大努力，才能维持当前的繁荣与生活水平。" 自法国和德国的政府陷入分裂状态以来，欧盟作为一个整体在如何应对国防、技术与资本市场领域关乎 存亡的地缘政治变局上，决策过程变得异常缓慢且痛苦 文｜沈联涛 无论以何种标准衡量，2025年都将作为一个关键的转折点被载入史册。 冲突在许多地区升级，特别是在乌克兰、以色列-加沙-伊朗-黎巴嫩、巴基斯坦-印度、泰国-柬埔寨、苏 丹等地。在气候方面，2025年是有史以来最热的三个年份之一。根据Earth.org的数据，就自然灾害造成 的损失而言，它也是最昂贵的年份之一。美国总统特朗普于2025年4月发动的关税战既造成了贸易不确 定性，也导致了全球供应链的战略性转移。技术在人工智能、半导体和其他领域实现了巨大的飞跃。金 融市场创下了历史新高，不仅股市如此，黄金（上涨近70%）、白银（上涨近150%）和其他稀有金属 也大幅上涨。 2025年12 ...

Core Insights - The report titled "The Forging and Lasting Success of World Leading Countries: A Study on the Organizational Degree of National Rise and Fall" was released by the Chenghai Global Development and Security Research Institute of Renmin University of China, focusing on the relationship between organizational degree and the rise and fall of great powers [1][3][31] - The report emphasizes the dual significance of addressing the rise and fall of great powers, particularly China, and aims to provide a new perspective on this issue through the lens of organizational sociology [3][8] Summary by Sections Organizational Degree and National Development - The report identifies a close relationship between the rise and fall of great powers and their organizational degree, suggesting that balancing organizational degree to adapt to social development is crucial [3][4] - It highlights the concept of organizational paradox, where there are both organizational benefits and traps, indicating that the degree of organization can lead to different outcomes over time [3][8] Historical Context and Comparative Analysis - The report analyzes historical cases of China and Western countries, noting that China experienced organizational benefits during the pre-modern period, establishing a centralized state earlier than Western nations [8][9] - It contrasts the rise of military-fiscal nation-states in Europe with China's traditional governance model, suggesting that the former has a stronger resource extraction capability, placing China at a competitive disadvantage [9][26] Theoretical Contributions and Methodological Approaches - The report proposes using organizational degree as a variable to connect historical context and economic development, offering a more nuanced understanding of state development compared to traditional institutionalism [11][12] - It calls for a broader examination of factors influencing organizational degree, including political, economic, and ideological dimensions, to enrich the understanding of national rise and fall [16][18] Future Research Directions - Suggestions for future research include expanding the theoretical framework to incorporate the impact of technological revolutions and examining the organizational degree in various global contexts beyond just China and Europe [12][18] - The report advocates for a more inclusive analysis that considers both leading and follower states to enhance the understanding of organizational degree and its implications for national success [18][20]

Group 1 - The core issue of major countries transitioning from the real economy to the financial sector is attributed to technological stagnation, where old technologies fail to foster new industries, leading capital to flow into finance [1][10] - The report highlights the contrasting paths of the US and China, with the US experiencing relative decline due to a fragmented industrial system and reliance on external core technologies, while China benefits from a complete and resilient industrial system [1][7] - The report emphasizes that a strong industrial system is fundamental for driving technological advancement, and finance should serve the real economy rather than operate independently [10][11] Group 2 - The discussion at the seminar underscores the importance of organizational structure and economic forms, such as "de-industrialization," in determining the rise and fall of great powers [2] - The historical context of industrial revolutions illustrates that technological advancements have historically driven new industries, but the current technological landscape lacks disruptive innovations, leading to stagnation [6][10] - The US faces challenges due to its globalized industrial and talent systems, which, while initially beneficial, have created vulnerabilities in the face of new competitors like China [7][8]