中东欧第一、欧盟第六、全球第二十 在欧洲各国的首都中，华沙充满现代都市的感觉。《环球时报》驻波兰特派记者在华沙生活的3年里， 亲眼看到市中心一座座摩天大楼拔地而起，便捷的交通和移动支付、无处不在的连锁便利店甚至无人便 利店、不断上涨的写字楼租金和劳动者平均收入等，都是这个国家近年来经济亮眼表现的真实写照。 根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）去年10月发布的《世界经济展望报告（2025）》中的国内生产总值 （GDP）全球排名，波兰2025年的GDP预计达到1.04万亿美元，跃升为中东欧地区最大经济体、欧盟第 六大经济体，同时超过瑞士成为世界第二十大经济体。 【环球时报驻波兰特派记者 禹丽敏】编者的话：2026年欧洲整体及内部国家经济走势是受到国际社会 广泛关注的议题。"当欧盟各国普遍深陷经济低迷之际，却有一个较大的欧盟成员国持续交出亮眼成绩 单——波兰。"有德国媒体这样报道称。国际货币基金组织在新年到来前预测说："到2026年，波兰仍将 是欧盟增长最快的大型经济体。"欧盟委员会的预测数据也显示，波兰2026年经济增速将达到3.5%，远 高于欧盟整体约1.4%的经济增速，以及传统强国德国、法国1%左右的经济增速。在《 ...

伍慧萍表示，默茨外交政策一个非常重要的原则，就是要做强做大德国和欧洲，使德国在其中发挥领导 作用，承担更多责任。 从"'美国治下的和平'落幕"到"德国不是'大国博弈中的棋子'"，年末德国总理默茨在国际舞台上频频发 声，试图为欧洲在地缘政治的迷雾中指明方向。 2月大选、5月新政府组建，作为欧洲最大经济体，从对美欧关系的强势回应，到组局欧洲为乌克兰在俄 乌冲突解决中出谋划策，默茨新政府半年多来在外交舞台上的表现可圈可点。 但反观德国经济，在德国联邦统计局公布本年度经济增速前，德国经济已在2023年和2024年连续下滑， 国内生产总值（GDP）分别缩水0.3%和0.2%。今年12月中旬，德国多家重要经济研究机构分别发布的 冬季预测报告显示，受对美国出口明显下滑等因素影响，2025年德国经济预计仅增长0.1%，较秋季预 测的0.2%增幅再度下调。 缘何当前的德国在政治与经济领域出现如此"温差"？在同济大学德国研究中心副主任伍慧萍教授看来， 这背后恰恰折射出当前德国的内政外交正处于冷战结束以来前所未有的转型中。 近日，在德国蓝皮书《德国发展报告（2025）：政治"右转"背景下的德国》发布会现场，伍慧萍在接受 第一财经采 ...

Group 1 - Macron calls for a shift in the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy to focus on economic growth and employment alongside inflation control, breaking the norm of leaders avoiding comments on central bank policies [1][3] - The ECB's current core mission is to maintain medium-term inflation close to 2%, differing from the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve which includes maximizing employment [1] - Macron has previously suggested broadening the ECB's policy objectives to include economic growth and decarbonization goals [1] Group 2 - Macron highlights financial stability risks due to the U.S. relaxing regulations on crypto assets and stablecoins, urging Europe to maintain its status as a stable and credible investment zone [2] - He supports the issuance of European common debt to create more high-liquidity, safe assets, thereby enhancing the euro's status as an international reserve currency [2] - Macron criticizes the ECB's ongoing policy of selling government bonds, suggesting it could lead to higher long-term interest rates, suppress economic activity, and strengthen the euro [3]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting organized by the Employers' Association of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina focused on the challenges and opportunities facing the Bosnian economy in 2026, emphasizing the need for economic reform and industrial prospects [1] Group 1: Economic Challenges and Opportunities - The meeting discussed the challenges and opportunities for the economy in 2026, including the introduction of suitable labor, EU regulations, and green transition [1] - The Vice President of the Employers' Association highlighted the importance of finding solutions to enhance the competitiveness of Bosnian companies and reduce their financial burdens [1] Group 2: Industrial Development - The Chairman of the Federation's Economic and Social Council pointed out that deindustrialization policies have led to the destruction of many economic entities, and privatization processes have caused further losses [1] - There is a pressing need to redevelop the industrial production sector in Bosnia, with government action required to improve the business environment and accelerate infrastructure development [1] Group 3: Stakeholder Involvement - The meeting brought together employers, government representatives, unions, and academic figures to coordinate future development directions in the context of European integration and reindustrialization [1] - The meeting also included an assessment report on the implementation of the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights in the Bosnian business sector [2]

Core Points - The recent Dutch parliamentary elections resulted in the unexpected rise of the Six Six Party, which became the largest party, with Rob Jetten as a leading candidate for Prime Minister [2][3] - Jetten's party gained significant seats compared to the previous election, increasing from 9 to an expected 27 seats, while traditional parties faced setbacks [3][4] - The political landscape in the Netherlands has shifted, with voters expressing fatigue over political polarization and seeking solutions to pressing issues like housing and immigration [5][6] Election Results - The Six Six Party, led by Jetten, is projected to win 27 seats, narrowly ahead of the Freedom Party with 25 seats, and the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy with 23 seats [2][3] - The total votes for the Six Six Party were approximately 1.77 million, while the Freedom Party received around 1.75 million votes [2] Political Context - The previous coalition government, which included the Freedom Party, collapsed due to disagreements over immigration policies, leading to the early elections [4][5] - Jetten's rise is attributed to a combination of factors, including public dissatisfaction with extreme political views and a focus on more moderate, centrist policies [6][7] Jetten's Leadership - Rob Jetten, at 38, represents a new generation of centrist leadership, combining elements from both left and right policies [6][8] - His campaign effectively addressed key voter concerns, particularly housing shortages, proposing the construction of new cities and significant government investment in housing [6][9] Coalition Formation Challenges - Forming a stable coalition will be a significant challenge, as it is anticipated that at least four parties will need to collaborate, with Jetten reaching out to potential allies [10] - The Freedom Party is likely to be excluded from the new coalition, as other parties have expressed unwillingness to partner with them [10]

Core Views - The future of the European Union (EU) is uncertain, facing multiple crises and challenges that threaten its unity and effectiveness [3][11][18]. Group 1: Historical Context and Current Challenges - The EU was established to promote peace and cooperation among European nations after World War II, particularly between France and Germany [2][3]. - The end of the Cold War initially led to optimism within the EU, but subsequent crises, including the global financial crisis, the refugee crisis, Brexit, and deteriorating relations with Russia, have exposed significant weaknesses [3][11]. - Europe is currently grappling with demographic issues, economic stagnation, and a lack of technological competitiveness, leading to social divisions and strained relations with major geopolitical players, including the US and Russia [3][11][18]. Group 2: Serbia's EU Membership Prospects - Serbia's EU accession process has stalled, primarily due to demands from EU member states regarding territorial integrity, particularly concerning Kosovo [6][7][22]. - Despite being surrounded by EU countries, Serbia's path to membership remains uncertain, and the EU is not prepared to expand its membership in the near future due to internal challenges [6][22]. Group 3: Economic and Technological Challenges - Europe has missed opportunities in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, with no major internet companies emerging from the region, leading to a reliance on US technology [12][13]. - The energy crisis, exacerbated by political decisions such as Germany's nuclear phase-out and reliance on Russian energy, has significantly increased production costs in Europe [13][14]. - Regulatory burdens and high taxation have driven innovation and talent away from Europe, further hindering its economic growth [13][14]. Group 4: Geopolitical Dynamics and Future Cooperation - The ongoing Ukraine conflict has intensified perceptions of a security threat from Russia, compelling Europe to seek protection from the US, which complicates its relations with China [18][19]. - There is a recognition of the need for Europe to engage with China for mutual benefits, particularly in technology and sustainable development, despite political hesitations [24][25][29]. - The internal political landscape in Europe complicates the establishment of a unified stance towards global challenges, including cooperation with China [25][29].

Core Points - The European Union (EU) was formed in 1993, but many Eastern European countries have struggled to benefit from the unified market, often feeling marginalized [2] - Countries like Germany and the Netherlands have leveraged their manufacturing advantages to dominate Eastern European markets, leading to the decline of local industries [4] - The EU's financial support to struggling countries, such as Greece, has been insufficient and hindered by bureaucratic processes, resulting in limited benefits for the local population [4] - There is a clear hierarchical structure within the EU, with wealthier Northern countries benefiting disproportionately compared to Southern and Eastern nations [6] - The high welfare system in Europe is under threat due to rising energy costs, reduced military support from the U.S., and competition from upgraded Chinese manufacturing [6] - Cultural and ethnic differences among EU member states contribute to integration challenges, making it difficult to achieve a unified fiscal and policy framework [9] - The EU faces multiple crises, with Western countries reluctant to share responsibilities and Eastern nations unable to resist economic pressures, leading to a decline in welfare benefits [11] - The current situation in the EU serves as a cautionary tale for other nations, highlighting the importance of self-sufficiency and resilience in the face of external challenges [11]

Core Points - The European Union has begun the phased introduction of a new digital border management system in the Schengen Area to enhance border management, information sharing, and combat identity fraud and illegal immigration [1][2] - Non-EU citizens must electronically register upon their first entry into the Schengen Area, providing passport information and biometric data [1] - The new system is part of the EU's border control reform, with a subsequent phase planned to introduce a European Travel Information and Authorization System [2] Summary by Sections - **Digital Border Management System**: The new system requires non-EU citizens to register electronically at designated counters, providing biometric data to streamline border checks [1] - **Implementation Timeline**: Smaller Schengen member states will fully implement the system starting from the 12th, while larger countries like France and Germany will use it at select ports initially, with full implementation expected by April 10 next year [1] - **Historical Context**: The Schengen Agreement was signed in 1985 to facilitate free movement among member countries, currently comprising 29 nations with a total population of approximately 420 million [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that European governments must not be complacent regarding tariffs and competition with China, as Chinese companies are increasingly capable of supplying products traditionally dominated by German firms, often at lower prices [1][2] - In the first half of the year, Chinese automotive brands nearly doubled their sales in Europe, approaching the sales levels of Mercedes-Benz [1] - The European Central Bank's position in trade negotiations with China is favorable, as China's demand for European goods exceeds Europe's demand for Chinese products [1][2] Group 2 - The Trump administration's tariff policies and inconsistent support for Ukraine have caused unease among European governments, prompting them to strengthen internal economic ties and increase defense spending [2] - Despite a trade agreement framework with the U.S. easing some tariff impacts, Europe faces significant challenges, including heavy debt burdens and political uncertainty [2] - Germany's economy is expected to continue shrinking from 2023 to 2024, with external demand weakening and a projected growth of only 0.2% by 2025 [2] Group 3 - The current economic recovery in Germany is driven by domestic demand rather than foreign trade, with a focus on government spending in infrastructure and defense [3] - The German government plans to borrow over €100 billion by 2025, primarily for military and infrastructure projects, but public patience for the effectiveness of these policies is waning [3] - Key policy recommendations include simplifying administrative processes, increasing labor supply, enhancing technology investments, and lowering energy prices [3] Group 4 - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised, with the German central bank's history linked to post-war economic recovery [4] - The current exchange rate of the euro against the dollar is around 1.17, which is being monitored but not considered a major issue [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints France is a developed industrial country with a strong industrial base in sectors such as steel, automotive, and construction, as well as leading industries in aerospace, nuclear energy, and ocean development. It is also a major agricultural producer and exporter in the EU. However, France has limited natural resources and relies heavily on imports for energy and industrial raw materials. The country's energy mix is dominated by nuclear power, and it has been actively involved in international trade and investment [1][2][10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 National Overview - **Geographical Location**: France, the largest country in the EU by area, is located in Western Europe, with a hexagonal mainland bordering multiple countries and facing four major seas. It has diverse climates, including temperate maritime, Mediterranean, and continental [7]. - **Economic Overview**: In 2024, France's GDP was €2.91 trillion, with a 1.1% year - on - year increase and an inflation rate of 1.3%. The industrial value - added was €3565 billion, and the agricultural value - added was €380 billion. It is highly dependent on imports for minerals and energy, with nuclear power accounting for about 65% of electricity in 2024. It has a high - welfare system and is an attractive destination for foreign investment [10][11][12]. - **Historical and Political Situation**: France has a long history, with the current Fifth Republic established in 1958. The president has significant powers, and the country has a bicameral parliament. There are multiple political parties with different policy stances [14][15][16]. 3.2 Oil and Other Liquids - As of January 1, 2023, France's proven oil reserves were 83 million barrels. It banned oil and gas production and exploration until 2040, leading to a continuous decline in production. In 2022, its oil consumption was 1.5 million barrels per day, showing a downward trend since 2003 - 2004. Worker strikes in refineries have caused shortages of petroleum products [20][22]. 3.3 Natural Gas - As of January 1, 2023, France's proven natural gas reserves were 590 Bcf. It has almost no dry natural gas production and depends entirely on imports. In 2022, consumption decreased due to high winter temperatures and the Russia - Ukraine conflict. GRTgaz and EDF play important roles in gas distribution and supply [24]. 3.4 Coal - France has no proven coal reserves and does not produce coal, relying entirely on imports. Due to the European energy crisis in 2022, two coal - fired power plants were temporarily restarted and their operation was extended to 2024 [28]. 3.5 Electricity - In 2021, France had a power generation of 530 TWh, an installed capacity of 142 GW, and was one of the largest power - surplus countries. Nuclear power accounted for 68% of electricity generation, with an installed capacity of 61 GW, second only to the US. The Flamanville EPR nuclear reactor started operation in 2024. EDF and its subsidiaries dominate the power market [30][33]. 3.6 Energy Trade - **Oil and Other Liquids**: In 2022, France imported over 822,000 barrels per day of oil and other liquids, reversing a downward trend since 2017. Its oil product exports have been declining since 2011. It mainly imports from European neighbors and Russia, and refinery strikes have increased its dependence on imports [34][36]. - **Natural Gas**: In 2021, France imported 1.6 Tcf and exported 188.9 Bcf of natural gas. In 2022, gas flow increased by 32% due to a 203% surge in LNG imports. It mainly imports from Norway and has started re - exporting to neighboring countries [38]. - **Electricity**: In 2021, France was the world's largest net power exporter, with exports mainly going to Switzerland, the UK, Italy, and Spain [41].