今日需重点关注美国初请失业金数据，若数据表现强劲提振美元，澳元兑美元或迎来小幅技术回调；若 数据不及预期，汇价有望依托0.6980支撑再度上攻0.7050阻力。在澳洲联储鹰派立场未转向、技术面多 头结构完好的前提下，澳元兑美元短期偏强格局难改。 技术面与基本面形成同向指引，日线级别汇价沿MA5、MA10短期均线稳步攀升，均线系统呈多头排 列，多头趋势结构完整。上方关键阻力聚焦0.7050阶段高点，突破后将打开至0.7100的上行空间；下方 核心支撑为0.6980，该位置叠加短周期布林带中轨支撑，是短线多空分水岭，若失守则汇价或转入震荡 整理，进一步支撑看0.6930的MA10共振位。 指标层面，MACD在零轴上方保持金叉，红柱动能持续释放，确认上涨动能充沛；RSI处于58-62的中性 偏强区间，未进入超买区域，汇价仍有延续上行的空间。60分钟周期布林带开口向上，汇价贴附上轨运 行，短线回调力度有限，整体维持震荡上行节奏。 2月5日(周四)亚市盘中，澳元兑美元窄幅偏强运行，汇价交投于0.7005附近，日内小幅上行，牢牢站稳 0.70整数关口。澳洲联储2月3日超预期加息25个基点至3.85%，且释放后续仍有收紧可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has strengthened significantly against the US dollar (USD), reaching a nearly 14-month high, driven by divergent monetary policies between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The RBA has maintained its policy interest rate, emphasizing upward inflation risks and the possibility of further tightening, which has ended market expectations for rate cuts [1]. - In contrast, the Fed has implemented multiple rate cuts, maintaining a relatively low policy rate, with market expectations leaning towards continued easing in the future [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Australia's economy shows resilience, with strong private demand and business investment, and inflation levels approaching the upper target range, providing a solid foundation for policy stability or tightening [1]. - The weakening of the USD, alongside structural trends, has diminished its attractiveness, indirectly supporting the AUD's rise [2]. Group 3: Commodity Prices and Trade - The AUD benefits from recovering commodity prices and improved demand from China, Australia's largest trading partner, enhancing export prospects [2]. - Prices for key Australian exports like iron ore and coal have stabilized, while precious and industrial metal prices have surged, positively impacting Australia's trade balance [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Technical indicators and institutional forecasts suggest a clear upward trend for the AUD, with expectations for further gains if the current strength is maintained [3]. - Major international banks predict that the AUD will continue to rise, with an overall upward shift in its trading range [3]. Group 5: Risks and Future Outlook - Domestic consumption in Australia shows signs of weakness, with a significant drop in consumer confidence and mixed employment market signals, which may hinder economic recovery [3]. - The potential for an overly strong AUD could weaken the competitiveness of non-resource exports, while external risks such as global economic slowdown and trade tensions may lead to volatility [3]. - Investors should monitor Australian inflation data and the Fed's future rate-cutting path, as well as commodity price fluctuations and China's economic recovery, to gauge the AUD's trajectory [3].