2026年2月26日亚洲早盘，澳元兑美元强势震荡，至截稿汇价交投于0.7129（涨0.0010，涨幅 0.0842%），今开0.7119，日内高低点0.7138/0.7115。2026年初至今澳元累计升值6.2%，在主要货币中 表现突出。 澳元走强核心源于通胀高企与澳央行鹰派立场。澳大利亚1月CPI同比3.8%（与12月持平，超预期）， 核心CPI升至3.4%，持续超出2%-3%政策目标。2月3日澳央行加息25基点至3.85%，为2026年首个加息 的发达经济体央行，强化鹰派预期。目前市场预计5月加息概率70%，年末利率或达4.2%，支撑澳元走 势。 今日重点关注：美国初请失业金人数、美联储官员表态及大宗商品价格。美国数据走弱或助推澳元，美 联储鹰派表态可能短期压制澳元；同时需跟踪澳央行政策信号、国内通胀及中国经济动态。 综合来看，澳元短期强势明确，通胀、加息预期及商品涨价构成支撑，但消费疲软、加息空间有限及阻 力位制约上行。短期大概率强势震荡，投资者需关注央行动向、通胀及美元走势，谨慎操作。 商品属性与外部环境同步发力。作为商品货币，澳元受益于工业金属、贵金属涨价及铁矿石出货量创新 高；美元持续承压（美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar, Norwegian krone, and New Zealand dollar have significantly outperformed other major currencies this year as traders bet on a shift from interest rate cuts to hikes in global monetary policy [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The Australian dollar has appreciated over 6% against the US dollar year-to-date, reaching its highest level in nearly three years [1]. - The New Zealand dollar has risen approximately 3.7% against the US dollar this year, with expectations of an upcoming interest rate hike [3]. - The Norwegian krone has gained over 5% due to unexpectedly high inflation, leading traders to speculate on a potential small rate hike in the first half of the year [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Shifts - The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking its first rate hike in over two years [1][3]. - Analysts believe this could signal the beginning of a sustained tightening cycle, with expectations of one to two more rate hikes this year, each by 25 basis points [3]. - The shift in monetary policy reflects a broader trend among major economies to end years of rate cuts and focus on controlling inflation [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - The economic structures of Australia, New Zealand, and Norway are heavily weighted towards commodities, often categorizing them as "commodity currencies" [3]. - Recent increases in oil, copper, and other export commodity prices have provided additional support for these currencies [3]. - Concerns over the U.S. government's fluctuating policies and rising debt levels have led investors to seek diversification away from dollar-denominated assets, benefiting these commodity currencies [4].

智通财经获悉，在澳洲央行意外重启加息周期与全球大宗商品市场大幅波动的双重夹击下，此前大规模 看涨澳元的对冲基金正陷入一场复杂的博弈。澳洲央行在近期宣布将官方现金利率上调25个基点至 3.85%，这一举措打破了长达两年的政策观望期，旨在应对依然具有粘性的通胀压力。然而，本应受益 于利差收窄而走强的澳元，却在触及近三年高位后迅速遭遇阻力。其核心诱因在于全球贵金属市场的剧 烈震荡，黄金和白银价格从历史高点大幅回落，直接削弱了澳元作为典型商品货币的上涨逻辑。 这一逻辑反转的后果正在显现：贵金属价格下跌不仅抵消了加息预期带来的乐观情绪，更将澳元推向愈 发严峻的下行通道。该货币已从上周创下的近三年高点回落，引发市场质疑对冲基金是否误判形势—— 当前其看涨澳元的仓位规模已攀升至2017年12月以来最高水平。 值得注意的是，上月澳元曾在澳洲央行收紧政策预期升温、叠加金银价格大幅上扬的双重利好推动下飙 升4.4%，彼时对冲基金的乐观立场尚有合理依据;而如今，同一批机构却面临政策转向与商品熊市的双 重夹击，其策略有效性正遭受前所未有的考验。 "这是个老生常谈的故事——鉴于澳洲央行的鹰派立场，投机者能否押对宝，或者说，押对澳元?" ...

智通财经APP获悉，在澳洲央行意外重启加息周期与全球大宗商品市场大幅波动的双重夹击下，此前大规模看涨澳元的对冲基金正陷入一场复杂的博弈。澳 洲央行在近期宣布将官方现金利率上调25个基点至3.85%，这一举措打破了长达两年的政策观望期，旨在应对依然具有粘性的通胀压力。然而，本应受益于 利差收窄而走强的澳元，却在触及近三年高位后迅速遭遇阻力。其核心诱因在于全球贵金属市场的剧烈震荡，黄金和白银价格从历史高点大幅回落，直接削 弱了澳元作为典型商品货币的上涨逻辑。 值得注意的是，上月澳元曾在澳洲央行收紧政策预期升温、叠加金银价格大幅上扬的双重利好推动下飙升4.4%，彼时对冲基金的乐观立场尚有合理依据;而 如今，同一批机构却面临政策转向与商品熊市的双重夹击，其策略有效性正遭受前所未有的考验。 "这是个老生常谈的故事——鉴于澳洲央行的鹰派立场，投机者能否押对宝，或者说，押对澳元?"新加坡StoneX货币交易员吴明泽表示，"澳元确实有很多利 好因素，但问题在于贵金属市场的波动最终是否会将多头压垮。" 与大宗商品价格联动紧密的澳元在1月29日一度攀升至70.94美分，创下2023年2月以来最高水平，但随后快速回落。此次调整恰逢 ...

对于投资者而言，需重点关注澳央行后续议息声明、澳大利亚1月通胀数据及大宗商品价格走势，警惕 汇率在数据催化下的波动；中长期来看，需跟踪澳大利亚通胀回落进度、经济复苏韧性及全球央行政策 分化格局，合理控制投资风险。 作为典型商品货币，大宗商品价格走强进一步夯实澳元基本面。澳大利亚资源出口依赖度较高，铁矿 石、铜、黄金等大宗商品价格近期表现强势，铁矿石站稳130美元/吨，铜价、金价创下新高，镍价维持 九个月高位。中国需求回暖叠加供应端扰动，推动大宗商品价格延续强势，直接利好澳大利亚贸易收 支，提升澳元资产吸引力，成为支撑澳元的重要筹码。与此同时，澳大利亚经济展现出较强韧性，2025 年四季度GDP增长超出预期，私人需求、住房投资表现强劲，失业率稳定在4.1%左右，就业市场紧张 态势未改，为央行加息及澳元强势提供了坚实支撑。 对比全球主要央行政策分化，进一步凸显澳元的相对优势。当前美联储、欧洲央行聚焦降息节奏讨论， 市场预期美联储下一次降息可能推迟至6月，而澳央行则在通胀压力下开启加息周期，美澳利差扩大至 2022年以来新高，吸引跨境资金流入澳元资产，进一步助推澳元走强。不过，短期需警惕美元指数反弹 带来的压制，以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown strong performance against the US dollar (USD) and is positioned as a leading currency among G10 currencies, driven by monetary policy divergence and robust commodity prices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the AUD/USD exchange rate reached 0.7016, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 4% [1]. - The AUD has consistently broken key resistance levels against the USD, reaching a 16-month high of 0.6931 on January 26 and further climbing to 0.7050 [1]. - The AUD/CNY exchange rate has shown high volatility, fluctuating between 4.86 and 4.90, indicating a strong overall performance since the beginning of the year [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained a benchmark interest rate of 3.6% and indicated a shift towards potential rate hikes, contrasting with the US Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts [2]. - Australia's consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.7% in December 2025, exceeding the RBA's target range, which has strengthened the case for interest rate increases [2]. - The market is pricing in a nearly 50% chance of a rate hike in March, with predictions that the benchmark rate could rise to 3.85% [2]. Group 3: Commodity Prices and Economic Indicators - The AUD is closely linked to commodity prices, with recent strong performances in gold, copper, and iron ore, benefiting Australia's trade balance [3]. - Australia's GDP grew by 2.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, indicating a robust economic environment [3]. - The National Australia Bank's business survey showed a capacity utilization rate of 83.3%, reflecting strong operational performance across sectors [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The USD index has weakened due to expectations of coordinated intervention to support the Japanese yen and rising concerns over US government debt [4]. - The AUD is viewed as a preferred alternative investment due to its high yield and solid fundamentals, with analysts expressing optimism about its future performance [4]. - Technical indicators suggest a clear bullish trend for the AUD/USD, with significant support levels identified at 0.7000 and 0.6931 [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts from major banks predict that the AUD/USD could reach the 0.70 mark by the end of March 2026, with a probability exceeding 70% according to options market data [5]. - Despite the positive outlook, potential risks include a downturn in commodity prices, lower-than-expected interest rate hikes, and geopolitical tensions that could affect the AUD's performance [6]. - Key variables to monitor include the RBA's upcoming policy meeting, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, and changes in Chinese demand and commodity prices [6].

截至2026年1月30日，加元兑美元报0.7389，较前一交易日微跌0.3249%，当日开盘0.7413，盘中最高触 及0.7419，最低下探至0.7383，延续近期震荡上行态势。同期美元兑加元下跌0.5%，跌至1.3482的16个 月低点，凸显加元强势格局。开年以来，加元依托加拿大央行政策稳健、美元走弱的双重支撑持续回 暖，累计涨幅超1.4%，成为汇市中表现稳健的品种，当前多空博弈围绕0.74关口展开，核心聚焦加央行 政策动向、美加贸易局势及全球风险偏好变动。 加拿大央行(加央行)的稳健货币政策是支撑加元走强的核心内生动力。1月28日，加央行宣布将基准利 率维持在2.25%不变，符合市场普遍预期，这也是其延续当前利率水平的阶段性决策，凸显对经济不确 定性的审慎态度。行长蒂夫.麦克勒姆在新闻发布会上七次提及"不确定性"，明确当前基准利率处于适 当水平，但需密切监测各类风险，相较于此前表述，进一步强化了对经济前景的谨慎立场。 此次政策坚守贴合加拿大经济复苏节奏与通胀格局，2025年加拿大通胀率为2.1%，预计未来一段时间 将维持在接近2%的目标水平，无需通过激进货币政策调控。市场普遍解读，加央行短期内既不会降息 ...

加拿大经济韧性为加元提供底层支撑。2025年第三季度年化GDP增长达2.6%，远超市场预期；9月至11 月期间新增就业岗位18.1万个，劳动力市场持续改善，服务业就业增速加快。不过央行提示四季度GDP 增速大概率走弱，企业招聘意愿趋谨慎，且伦敦失业率攀升至7.2%，区域就业分化问题凸显，一定程 度上制约了加元走强动能。机构预测2026年加拿大经济将温和复苏1.1%，整体基本面难以支撑加元脱 离震荡区间。 作为商品货币，加元走势与原油价格高度联动。近期WTI原油在连续两日反弹后再度回落至59.30美元 附近，叠加美欧贸易担忧发酵，市场担心摩擦升级抑制全球能源消费前景，直接削弱加元表现，为美元 兑加元提供阶段性上行动力。但亚洲大国经济数据提振原油需求预期，又限制了油价下行空间，使得汇 价难以持续突破区间。此外，美国计划对欧洲国家加征关税引发的外交不确定性，让美元在避险属性与 政策疑虑间摇摆，进一步加剧汇市震荡。 日线级别来看，美元兑加元整体维持震荡偏强态势，在1.3800上方多次获得支撑，短期均线系统呈现粘 合向上迹象，暗示多头略占优势。但汇价在上探1.3900-1.3920区间时持续遇阻，未能有效突破，显示上 ...

值得关注的是，加元对加拿大总理马克.卡尼寻求拓展全球贸易伙伴的相关消息作出了积极反应。卡尼 政府致力于强化与中国的合作关系，目前已签署多项小型贸易协议。不过，受加拿大地理位置限制，且 其经济对美国仍存在巨额依赖，这意味着该国摆脱美国经济影响的空间相对有限。 1月21日回顾前一交易日(1月20日)美国盘初表现，尽管美股自早盘低谷逐步回升，整体市场风险偏好却 依旧处于低迷状态——但这一情绪若仅通过商品货币走势观察，恐怕会得出完全相反的结论。 实际上，澳元、纽元和加元兑美元汇率均录得上涨，这种走势在市场避险情绪升温的环境下实属罕见。 这一异常表现让人联想到去年类似的市场异动，当时特殊交易逻辑曾引发"抛售美元资产"的市场浪潮。 而此次，特朗普对相关议题态度坚决，并无退让迹象，甚至再度重申了收购格陵兰岛的诉求。更令人难 以设想的极端情景是，特朗普可能动用军事力量夺取格陵兰岛控制权。尽管他在面对记者追问时回避了 这一问题，但"吞并"这一构想本身就足以引发市场动荡，给全球市场带来不确定性冲击。 与此同时，美国最高法院就相关政策合法性的裁决再度搁置，结果预计推迟至2月20日公布。这一延迟 为市场预留了充足的反应时间，在特朗普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a range-bound trading pattern against the US dollar (USD), influenced by commodity price fluctuations and changing market expectations regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 20, the AUD/USD exchange rate is at 0.6698, showing a slight decline of 0.16% from the previous trading day, with fluctuations between 0.6685 and 0.6702 [1]. - The AUD has been under pressure since reaching a high of 0.68 on January 7, currently trapped in a consolidation range of 0.6650 to 0.6750 [1]. - The recent price action reflects a balance of bullish and bearish forces, with the AUD showing signs of hesitation [1]. Group 2: Commodity Price Influence - The AUD's performance is significantly influenced by the divergent trends in commodity prices, particularly iron ore and copper [1]. - Iron ore prices remain above $130 per ton, supported by temporary demand from Chinese infrastructure projects, but are expected to decline by 4% by 2026 due to a sluggish real estate market in China [1]. - Conversely, copper prices are projected to rise by 1% by 2026, driven by demand from renewable energy technologies and AI infrastructure, providing some support for the AUD [1]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations regarding RBA policy have shifted from a focus on rate hikes to anticipations of early rate cuts, influenced by recent inflation data [2]. - The probability of a rate hike in February has decreased from 36% to 22% following a lower-than-expected CPI increase of 3.4% year-on-year [2]. - Some institutions are betting on a rate cut cycle, with JPMorgan predicting potential cuts as early as mid-2026 if core inflation falls below 3% [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The short-term outlook for the AUD/USD shows increasing downward pressure, with technical indicators suggesting a bearish trend [2]. - Key resistance levels are identified at 0.6745 and 0.6768, while support levels are at 0.6665 and 0.6650, with a potential test of the 0.6610-0.6595 range if the 0.6650 support is breached [2]. Group 5: Institutional Perspectives - There is a notable divergence in institutional views on the AUD's trajectory, with some predicting short-term volatility and others maintaining a bullish outlook for the medium term [3]. - JPMorgan forecasts a trading range of 0.66-0.68 for the AUD in the short term, while Goldman Sachs is more optimistic, projecting a rise to 0.69 by the third quarter [3]. - The overall outlook for 2026 suggests a strengthening AUD, with a projected average exchange rate of 0.69, although falling iron ore prices may limit appreciation [3]. Group 6: Risk Factors - Key risk factors that could disrupt the current trading range include upcoming inflation data from the RBA, developments in China's real estate policies, and fluctuations in the USD index [3]. - Monitoring the 0.6650 support level is crucial for assessing the potential for further short-term adjustments in the AUD [3].