周三的汇市中，澳元兑美元延续涨势，实现四连升，盘中交易于0.6480附近，最新报价已触及0.6483。 这波上涨的关键推力，来自澳大利亚统计局发布的10月完整CPI数据——同比3.8%的增幅，不仅高于前期3.5%的水平，也超出市场预期的3.6%。 通胀数据超预期，让澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）的政策态度更受关注。 澳大利亚经济基本面的改善也提供支撑。11月制造业PMI初值升至51.6，重返扩张区间，服务业与综合PMI也同步上行。不过RBA副行长提醒，月度通胀数 据可能波动，央行不会对单月数据过度反应，当前政策立场更趋平衡。 技术面来看，澳美货币对处于矩形整理区间，0.6420附近形成有效支撑，上方则受限于9日指数移动平均线0.6479。若能成功突破这一关键位置，澳元有望进 一步向0.6500的心理关口发起冲击，后续更强阻力则在0.6630附近。 目前市场普遍预计，12月RBA将维持3.6%的官方现金利率不变，毕竟当前通胀仍高于2-3%的目标区间。RBA11月会议记录也显示，央行倾向于利率维稳， 利率期货数据显示，12月降息至3.35%的概率仅为6%。 澳元的走强，还与美元的承压形成对比。衡量美元综合表现的美元指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the movements of the Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, and commodity currencies against the US Dollar on November 18. Currency Movements - The Euro against the US Dollar decreased by 0.08%, closing at 1.1583, with a daily high of 1.1608 and a low of 1.1572 [1] - The British Pound against the US Dollar fell by 0.03%, settling at 1.3151 [1] - The US Dollar appreciated by 0.43% against the Swiss Franc, reaching 0.7996, after hitting a daily low of 0.7938 [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian Dollar increased by 0.31% against the US Dollar [1] - The New Zealand Dollar rose by 0.11% against the US Dollar [1] - The US Dollar declined by 0.52% against the Canadian Dollar [1] Other Currency Movements - The Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krona both appreciated by 0.03% against the US Dollar [1] - The Danish Krone decreased by 0.08% against the US Dollar [1] - The Polish Zloty fell by 0.18% against the US Dollar, while the Hungarian Forint increased by 0.12% [1]

Core Insights - The article provides a market analysis focusing on currency pairs including Euro to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar to US Dollar, and New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar [1] Group 1: Currency Pair Analysis - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is a key focus, indicating fluctuations that may impact investment strategies [1] - The US Dollar to Japanese Yen is analyzed for its potential volatility and implications for trade [1] - The Australian Dollar to US Dollar and New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar pairs are also examined, highlighting their relevance in the current market landscape [1]

反观美联储，仍深陷政府停摆后的"数据真空"困境。鲍威尔近期释放的鹰派信号，已显著降温市场对12 月降息25个基点的押注。与此同时，美元指数正运行于98-102的短期上行通道，叠加澳美利差收窄与美 元避险属性的双重作用，共同对澳元的反弹空间形成强力压制。 周一（11月17日）澳元兑美元交投于0.6525，日内震荡0.6508-0.6536，受澳央行维稳支撑与美元强势压 制，0.65关口多空胶着。 当前澳元兑美元的基本面逻辑，核心聚焦于澳、美两大央行的政策路径分化。澳大利亚央行在11月明确 暂停降息步伐，维持3.6%的现金利率不变，这一决策直接源于三季度通胀数据的超预期反弹——整体 通胀率攀升至3.2%。机构研判已随之调整，甚至预测其下次利率动向或为2027年初的加息，这种"降息 周期基本终结"的明确预期，为澳元提供了坚实支撑。 技术面呈弱势整理，核心区间0.6500-0.6550。0.6500（200日均线+心理关口）为支撑，破位下看 0.6460；0.6550（50日均线阻力）为反弹关键，突破上探0.6580-0.6600。 指标上，均线空头排列，MACD零轴下绿柱收窄但未金叉，KDJ超卖存反弹需求但动能有限 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index increased by 0.07% to 99.62, with mixed performance among non-US currencies [1] Currency Performance - The euro declined by 0.06% against the US dollar, trading at 1.1557 [1] - The British pound appreciated by 0.10% against the US dollar, reaching 1.3176 [1] - The Australian dollar rose by 0.65% against the US dollar, at 0.6536 [1] - The US dollar strengthened by 0.46% against the Japanese yen, trading at 154.1325 [1] - The US dollar decreased by 0.18% against the Canadian dollar, at 1.4021 [1] - The US dollar fell by 0.02% against the Swiss franc, trading at 0.8049 [1]

Economic Impact - The White House economic advisor Hassett stated that the government "shutdown" could have a far greater impact on the U.S. economy than previously expected, potentially causing long-term damage to government efficiency and leading to a slowdown in Q4 GDP growth [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant indicated that if the "shutdown" continues, economic growth in Q4 could be halved [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson suggested that the Fed should be more cautious in future policy actions as interest rates are closer to neutral levels [2] - New York Fed President Williams mentioned that the Fed may soon need to expand its balance sheet through asset purchases to meet liquidity needs, although this does not indicate a change in monetary policy stance [2] - St. Louis Fed President Bullard projected that monetary policy is in a moderately tight to neutral range, with 50 to 75 basis points of policy adjustment space remaining if rates decline further [2] Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for November is at 50.3, marking the lowest level since June 2022 [3] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.16% to 46,987.1 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.13% to 6,728.8 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.21% to 23,004.54 points [4] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.42% to $4,007.8 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 0.57% to $48.225 per ounce [5] Oil and Bond Market - The main contract for U.S. oil rose by 0.69% to $59.84 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.47% to $63.68 per barrel [6] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.43 basis points to 3.560%, the 5-year yield increased by 0.52 basis points to 3.682%, the 10-year yield rose by 1.54 basis points to 4.097%, and the 30-year yield increased by 2.04 basis points to 4.699% [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the VPC indicator strategy, which is intended for reference and not as investment advice [1] - The strategy update was released on November 7, 2025, at 15:50 Beijing time [1] Group 2 - The article provides a bullish scenario for the price above 48.07 and a bearish scenario below this level [5] - Key resistance levels are identified at 48.73, 49.02, and 49.23, while support levels are at 48.40, 48.17, and 47.80 [5] Group 3 - The article includes information on the Euro/USD currency pair, with a current price of 1.15316, showing a slight decrease of 0.00001 (-0.00%) [9] - The article outlines a bearish scenario below 1.1533 and a bullish scenario above this level [9] - Key support levels are at 1.1521, 1.1509, and 1.1496, while resistance levels are at 1.15550 and 1.15525 [9] Group 4 - The article mentions a bullish scenario for the price above 0.6485 and a bearish scenario below this level [15] - Key support levels are at 0.6470, 0.6442, and 0.6370, while resistance levels are at 0.6496, 0.6512, and 0.6522 [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) remains above the 0.6500 level following a trade surplus that exceeded expectations, despite a general decline in the USD and a recovery in risk sentiment [1] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD pair is currently consolidating, with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at approximately 0.6440 acting as a significant support level, reinforced by the October low [1] - A potential downward trend could lead the AUD/USD to test the critical 200-day moving average support at 0.6445, with further declines possibly reaching the August low of 0.6414 and the June low of 0.6372 [1] - If bullish momentum returns, the October high at 0.6629 will be the immediate resistance, with potential upward movement towards 0.6707, followed by key levels at 0.6942 and 0.7000 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded above 45, indicating potential upward movement, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) above 16 suggests a sustained but weak trend [1] - The daily chart indicates that the AUD/USD pair is consolidating within a rectangular formation, showing sideways movement and remaining below the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA), which indicates weak short-term momentum [1] Group 3: Support and Resistance Levels - A successful breakout above the psychological level of 0.6500 could lead to testing the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.6460, followed by the five-month low of 0.6414 recorded on August 21 [2] - Initial resistance is found at the nine-day EMA of 0.6520, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6539; breaking these levels would improve short- and medium-term price momentum [2] - Further upward movement would indicate a bullish trend, supporting the AUD/USD pair to approach the 13-month high of 0.6707 set on September 17 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The news outlines key support and resistance levels for various currency pairs, indicating potential trading strategies based on market movements. Currency Analysis - **USDJPY**: Monthly resistance at 102.10, weekly support at 98.30, daily resistance at 99.30, and a critical short-term range between 100.10-20 [1][2] - **USDCAD**: Monthly support at 1.4030, weekly support at 1.3890, daily resistance at 1.4020, with a short-term critical range at 1570-80 [5][6] - **USDCHF**: Monthly support at 1.4100-1.4110, with no reversal signal indicating a bearish outlook [7] - **EURUSD**: Weekly support at 0.8000, daily resistance at 0.8000, and a critical range at 0.8090-0.8100 [9] - **GBPUSD**: Monthly support at 1.1120, weekly resistance at 1.1670, daily resistance at 1.1575, with a critical range at 1.1485-1.1495 [11] - **AUDUSD**: Monthly support at 1.3070, weekly resistance at 1.3415, daily resistance at 1.3220, with a critical range at 1.3040-50 [13] - **NZDUSD**: Weekly resistance at 0.6540, daily resistance at 0.6520, and a critical range at 0.6490-0.6500 [15] - **General Market Sentiment**: The analysis suggests a cautious approach, waiting for reversal signals before making significant trades [2][7][9][11][13][15] Economic Events - Key economic events to watch include Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, Germany's industrial output, Switzerland's unemployment rate, Eurozone retail sales, and the Bank of England's interest rate decision [17]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index decreased by 0.05% to 100.16, while most non-US currencies appreciated against the dollar [1] Currency Movements - The euro rose by 0.09% against the dollar, reaching 1.1493 [1] - The British pound increased by 0.24% to 1.3052 against the dollar [1] - The Australian dollar appreciated by 0.27% to 0.6506 against the dollar [1] - The Japanese yen strengthened by 0.29% against the dollar, with a rate of 154.1220 [1] - The Canadian dollar saw a slight increase of 0.04% to 1.4108 against the dollar [1] - The Swiss franc declined by 0.05% against the dollar, with a rate of 0.8102 [1]