Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index increased by 0.23% to 97.08, indicating a strengthening of the dollar against most non-US currencies [1] Currency Movements - The euro declined by 0.15% against the dollar, trading at 1.1851 [1] - The British pound fell by 0.20% against the dollar, with a rate of 1.3628 [1] - The Australian dollar remained stable against the dollar, holding at 0.7072 [1] - The Japanese yen depreciated by 0.54% against the dollar, with a rate of 153.5205 [1] - The Canadian dollar weakened by 0.14% against the dollar, trading at 1.3637 [1] - The Swiss franc decreased by 0.26% against the dollar, with a rate of 0.7697 [1]

今日需重点关注美国初请失业金数据，若数据表现强劲提振美元，澳元兑美元或迎来小幅技术回调；若 数据不及预期，汇价有望依托0.6980支撑再度上攻0.7050阻力。在澳洲联储鹰派立场未转向、技术面多 头结构完好的前提下，澳元兑美元短期偏强格局难改。 技术面与基本面形成同向指引，日线级别汇价沿MA5、MA10短期均线稳步攀升，均线系统呈多头排 列，多头趋势结构完整。上方关键阻力聚焦0.7050阶段高点，突破后将打开至0.7100的上行空间；下方 核心支撑为0.6980，该位置叠加短周期布林带中轨支撑，是短线多空分水岭，若失守则汇价或转入震荡 整理，进一步支撑看0.6930的MA10共振位。 指标层面，MACD在零轴上方保持金叉，红柱动能持续释放，确认上涨动能充沛；RSI处于58-62的中性 偏强区间，未进入超买区域，汇价仍有延续上行的空间。60分钟周期布林带开口向上，汇价贴附上轨运 行，短线回调力度有限，整体维持震荡上行节奏。 2月5日(周四)亚市盘中，澳元兑美元窄幅偏强运行，汇价交投于0.7005附近，日内小幅上行，牢牢站稳 0.70整数关口。澳洲联储2月3日超预期加息25个基点至3.85%，且释放后续仍有收紧可 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has continued its upward trend against the US dollar (USD), reaching a high of 0.7094, the highest since January 2023, driven by positive economic data from China and Australia, a resumption of the interest rate hike cycle by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and a weakening USD index [1][2] - China's economic performance directly impacts the AUD, with improvements in service and manufacturing PMIs indicating a positive outlook for Australian commodity exports [2][3] - Australia's domestic economy showed strong performance, with the composite PMI rising from 51.0 to 55.7, marking the strongest expansion in 45 months, and the services PMI reaching its highest level since February 2022 [3] Group 2 - The RBA raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking its first rate hike since November 2023, driven by higher-than-expected inflation data [4] - Inflation pressures in Australia are significant, with the December CPI rising by 1.0%, exceeding expectations, and the January TD-MI inflation indicator showing a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [4][5] - Market expectations for further rate hikes by the RBA have increased, with an 80% probability of a rate hike in May and potential additional hikes totaling around 40 basis points within the year [6] Group 3 - The USD index has been weak, trading around 97.40, influenced by a lack of key economic data from the US and cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rates [6] - Despite stronger-than-expected PPI data in the US, market expectations for an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve have not completely dissipated, maintaining a weak outlook for the USD [6] Group 4 - Technically, the AUD/USD is in an upward channel, with a strong bullish trend, although it may face short-term adjustment pressure due to being in the overbought zone [8] - Key resistance for the AUD/USD is at the 0.7100 level, with potential to test the upper channel at 0.7210, while support is concentrated around the 9-day EMA at 0.6964 [8]

Group 1: Government and Monetary Policy - The U.S. Congress passed a funding bill to resolve the partial government shutdown that began on January 31 [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the Fed needs to lower interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, while Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized the need for cautious monetary policy until inflation returns to target [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking its first rate hike in 2023 and becoming the first major developed economy to raise rates since 2026 [1] Group 2: Real Estate and Economic Measures - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung announced that the government will take all necessary measures to curb real estate speculation, urging multiple property owners to sell before the expiration of a high capital gains tax exemption policy in May [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.34% at 49,240.99 points, the S&P 500 down 0.84% at 6,917.81 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.43% at 23,255.19 points [3] - International precious metal futures saw gains, with COMEX gold futures up 6.83% at $4,970.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 10.27% at $84.92 per ounce [3] Group 4: Oil and Bond Market - U.S. oil futures rose by 2.83% to $63.90 per barrel, while Brent oil futures increased by 2.55% to $67.99 per barrel [4] - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 2-year yield up 0.01 basis points at 3.570% and the 10-year yield down 0.59 basis points at 4.266% [4] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.22% to 97.39, with most non-U.S. currencies appreciating against the dollar [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has entered a technical partial "shutdown" due to the inability to complete the legislative process before the budget authorization deadline on January 31, despite the Senate passing a $1.2 trillion funding bill [1] - The Indian government plans to borrow a record ₹17.2 trillion for the fiscal year 2026-27, with a projected reduction in the fiscal deficit from 4.4% to 4.3% and a decrease in debt-to-GDP ratio from 56.1% to 55.6% [2] - South Korea's semiconductor exports surged by 102.7% year-on-year in January, reaching $20.5 billion, contributing to an overall export growth of 33.9% to $65.85 billion, setting a record for January [4] Group 2 - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has initiated an emergency operational plan due to the partial government shutdown, retaining only essential personnel to maintain basic functions until funding is restored [2] - The U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee is advancing a cryptocurrency federal regulatory framework bill, highlighting partisan divisions that may hinder its passage in the full Senate [1][2] - Japan's core CPI rose by 2% year-on-year in January, lower than the expected 2.2%, indicating a slowdown in inflation and reducing expectations for recent interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3]

近期澳元兑美元（AUD/USD）走势表现强势，截至周四亚洲交易时段，该货币对已连续第三个交易日延续涨势，交投于0.7040附近，整体呈现稳步上行态 势。此次涨势并非偶然，核心驱动力来自澳大利亚最新公布的通胀数据超预期，直接推升了澳洲联储（RBA）的加息预期，为澳元提供了强劲支撑。 周三公布的澳大利亚通胀数据成为市场焦点，多项关键指标均超出市场预期，印证了国内通胀压力仍在持续。数据显示，澳大利亚12月消费者价格指数 （CPI）同比上涨3.8%，较前一个月的3.4%有所回升，也高于市场普遍预期的3.6%；月度CPI环比上涨1.0%，相较于前值0%的持平状态大幅改善，同样超出 0.7%的预期值。作为核心通胀参考的澳大利亚央行截尾均值通胀率，环比上升0.2%、同比上升3.3%，始终高于澳洲联储设定的2%-3%政策目标区间，进一 步强化了加息必要性。 通胀数据的向好，直接改变了市场对澳洲联储后续货币政策的预期。目前市场预测，澳洲联储最早可能在下周的议息会议上启动加息，将现金利率从当前的 3.6%上调25个基点，这一加息概率已从数据公布前的60%升至70%以上。 从长期利率定价来看，市场预计到5月份，利率将完全定价至3. ...

Group 1 - The article provides updates on various international commodities, including spot gold and silver prices [2][4] - It also covers foreign exchange currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the US Dollar Index and its comparisons with other currencies such as the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Australian Dollar [6][8][10][12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown a slight increase against the US dollar (USD), supported by positive domestic economic data and a weakening USD, although overbought signals indicate potential for a pullback [1][4]. Economic Data - Australia's economic indicators have been strong, with the January manufacturing PMI rising to 52.4 from 51.6, and the services PMI increasing significantly from 51.1 to 56.0, indicating robust demand and economic momentum [1]. - Employment data also reflects a strong labor market, with December job changes recorded at 65.2K, significantly improving from the revised November figure of 28.7K, and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, below the expected 4.4% [1]. Inflation Trends - Recent inflation data shows a rebound, with the December TD-MI inflation indicator increasing to 3.5% year-on-year from 3.2%, and a month-on-month surge of 1.0%, the fastest since December 2023 [2]. - Despite a decrease in core CPI to 3.4% in November, it remains above the RBA's target range of 2%-3%, prompting calls for caution from the IMF regarding ongoing inflation concerns [2]. USD Performance - The USD has been weak, with the DXY index stabilizing around 98.30, influenced by US economic data and Federal Reserve policy expectations [4]. - The US GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 2025 was reported at 4.4%, slightly above expectations, while initial jobless claims were lower than anticipated at 200,000 [4]. Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD pair is showing a clear bullish pattern, trading around 0.6850, with technical indicators suggesting a potential breakout above the upper channel [5]. - If the pair closes above the upper channel, it may target 0.6942, while key support is at 0.6762; a drop below this level could weaken momentum and test further support at 0.6680 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is expected to rise to 0.70 against the US dollar (USD) by the end of the year, supported by the widening interest rate differential between Australia and the US [1] Economic Environment - The domestic economic environment in Australia is robust, with ongoing inflationary pressures [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to reconsider interest rate hikes, contrasting with the potential continuation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Interest Rate Differentials - The divergence in monetary policy between the RBA and the Federal Reserve, along with the expanding interest rate differential, may provide medium-term support for the AUD/USD currency pair [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses various currency pairs and their respective support and resistance levels across different time frames, indicating potential trading strategies based on these levels [1][2][3][5][7][9][11]. Group 2 - Key economic data and events to watch include China's December trade balance, OPEC's monthly oil report, and various U.S. economic indicators such as retail sales and PPI [13][14].