2025 年 12 月 29 日 橡胶：震荡偏强 20251229 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 15. 780 | 15, 730 | +50 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 15, 775 | 15, 715 | +60 | | | | 成交量(手) | 340, 531 | 382, 797 | -42, 266 | | | (05合约) | 持企量 (手) | 185, 943 | 182, 848 | +3, 095 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 93.930 | 93, 230 | +700 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 40. 467 | 39.946 | +521 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 现货-期货主力 | -480 | -430 | -20 | | | | 混合-期货主力 | -1.000 | -930 | -70 | | | 月差 | RU0 ...

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of December 25, cup rubber is priced at 51.00 Thai Baht/kg (+0.73), while latex is at 54.70 Thai Baht/kg (-0.50) [1] - Hainan private rubber water is at 14,600 Yuan/ton, Qingdao bonded zone Thai standard at 1,880 USD/ton (+15), and Thai mixed at 14,800 Yuan (+50) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate for Chinese semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 70.36%, up 0.35 percentage points month-on-month but down 8.37 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for Chinese all-steel tire sample enterprises is 61.69%, down 1.92 percentage points month-on-month but up 1.72 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Semi-steel tire average inventory turnover days are at 46.86 days, up 0.38 days month-on-month and up 5.64 days year-on-year; all-steel tire average inventory turnover days are at 43.78 days, up 1.87 days month-on-month but down 0.41 days year-on-year [1] Export Data - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 8.83 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with an export value of 153.7 billion Yuan, up 2.5% [2] - The export volume of new inflatable rubber tires was 8.5 million tons, up 3.5% year-on-year, with an export value of 147.7 billion Yuan, up 2.3% [2] - The export volume of automotive tires was 7.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with an export value of 126.6 billion Yuan, up 1.7% [2] Market Dynamics - Supply-side pressures from previous flooding in southern Thailand and conflicts in Thailand-Cambodia have kept raw material prices high, but seasonal increases in supply from Thailand are expected to ease costs [2] - Demand is supported by the resumption of operations at previously shut-down enterprises, but high inventory levels are leading to production control measures [2] - Inventory levels in Qingdao bonded and general trade are higher than the same period last year and at a relative high over the past five years, putting pressure on rubber prices [2]