Group 1: Report Summary - The report is about the rubber market on February 27, 2026, indicating that the rubber market is in a wide - range oscillation [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Market - The day - session closing price of the rubber main contract was 17,125 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan from the previous day; the night - session closing price was 17,080 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan. The trading volume was 269,900 lots, a decrease of 2,877 lots, and the open interest of the 05 contract was 172,951 lots, a decrease of 2,140 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity was 114,070 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members was 24,124 lots, an increase of 1,460 lots [2] Spread Data - The basis of spot - futures main contract was - 175, an increase of 15; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was - 1,225, an increase of 15; the monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was 135, an increase of 5 [2] Spot Market - The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,460 dollars/ton, an increase of 20 dollars; STR20 and SMR20 remained unchanged at 2,100 dollars/ton and 2,090 dollars/ton respectively; SIR20 was 2,015 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars. The prices of substitutes like Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene decreased. In the Qingdao market, the prices of some imported rubbers such as Thai standard, African 10 increased [2] Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2] Group 3: Industry News - This week, the natural rubber market saw a strong rise in prices due to the resonance of positive factors at home and abroad. The weekly average price of Shanghai full - latex was 16,738 yuan/ton, an increase of 578 yuan or 3.57%; the weekly average price of 20 - grade Thai standard in the Qingdao market was 2,043 dollars/ton, an increase of 73 dollars or 3.68%; the weekly average price of 20 - grade Thai mixed in the Qingdao market was 15,768 yuan/ton, an increase of 502 yuan or 3.29% [3][4]

2026 年 02 月 02 日 橡胶：宽幅偏弱 20260202 | | | 高琳琳 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 | gaolinlin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 表 | 1：基本面数据 | | | | | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 360 | 16. 690 | -330 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16, 350 | 16, 855 | -505 | | | | 成交量(手) | 518. 534 | 418. 885 | +99.649 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 172, 618 | 195. 654 | -23, 036 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 110. 930 | 110. 970 | -40 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 33, ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 28 日星期三 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日 SR605 合约收盘价 5168 元/吨，日跌幅 0.08%，夜盘收 5165 元/吨；SR609 合约 收盘价 5185 元/吨，日跌幅 0.08%，夜盘收 5180 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1.昨日今日广西白糖现货成交价为 5239 元/吨，下跌 8 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区 | | | | | 间 5250~5320 元/吨，多数下调 10 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5120~5170 元/吨，下 调 10 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5560~5900 元/吨，部分下调 10 元/吨。 | | | | | 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Core View - The rubber market shows a shockingly weak trend, with various data in the futures and spot markets experiencing fluctuations [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,745 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from the previous day; the night closing price was 15,610 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The trading volume was 216,355 lots, a decrease of 131,826 lots. The open interest of the 05 contract was 186,443 lots, a decrease of 4,496 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,500 tons to 109,890 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 4,064 lots to 39,694 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" was -245 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the basis of "mixed - futures main contract" was -895 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan. The monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was 40 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan. The RSS3 outer - disk quotation remained unchanged at 2,160 US dollars/ton, while STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 decreased by 5 US dollars/ton respectively [1] - **Substitutes and Spot Market**: The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 12,100 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,700 yuan/ton. In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber decreased by 10 US dollars/ton, and the price of African 10 decreased by 15 US dollars/ton [1] Industry News - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 58.49 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67 tons, or 2.94%. The bonded area inventory increased by 6.42% to 9.95 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 2.26% to 48.54 tons. The inbound rate and outbound rate of bonded and general trade warehouses both increased [2] Supply Situation - Enterprises adjust production schedules flexibly according to their own inventory, shipments, and orders. Some enterprises that limited production last week may increase production this week, while others may moderately reduce production due to shipment pressure. Overall, the supply side fluctuates slightly, and the shipment of some enterprises in Shandong has slowed down due to weather [4] Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [1] - The trend strength of rubber is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2] Summary of Related Catalogs Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,160 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,155 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The trading volume was 481,772 lots, an increase of 101,516 lots. The open interest of the 05 contract was 199,739 lots, an increase of 5,065 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 105,590 tons. The net short position of the top 20 members increased by 1,154 lots to 47,479 lots [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract decreased by 35 to - 310, the basis of mixed - futures main contract decreased by 85 to - 1,010, and the monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 decreased by 10 to 20 [2] - **Spot Market**: The outer - market quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 remained unchanged. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton. The prices of Thai mixed rubber and Thai standard rubber in the Qingdao market decreased by 10 dollars/ton, and the price of African 10 decreased by 15/10 dollars/ton [2] Industry News - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 56.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 million tons or 3.62%. The bonded area inventory increased by 6.14% to 9.35 million tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 3.13% to 47.47 million tons. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [3][4] - The spread between the main contracts of RU and NR widened by 10 yuan/ton to 3,145 yuan/ton, and the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main RU contract widened by 85 yuan/ton to - 1,010 yuan/ton [4] - There is a certain difference in the release of production capacity between enterprises. Some semi - steel tire enterprises have an increase in foreign trade orders, and their production has been further released. Some are still under production control due to sales pressure. Overall, foreign trade shipments support the overall shipments, but domestic sales pressure remains high [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, surging then giving back gains, and stabilizing with a slight upward shift in the intraday price center to around 16,160 yuan/ton. The contract closed with a 0.53% increase at 16,160 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread premium widened to 20 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is currently driven by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices may maintain a moderately bullish and volatile pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, being moderately bullish and volatile, and closing with a slight increase. The price reached a high of 2,310 yuan/ton and a low of 2,263 yuan/ton, closing 1.15% higher at 2,288 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 0 yuan/ton. With differences between bulls and bears emerging, methanol futures maintained a stable and volatile trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, being moderately bullish and volatile, and slightly rebounding. The price reached a high of 454.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 444.4 yuan/barrel, closing 1.96% higher at 448.0 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical factors have become prominent again, overriding the weak supply - demand fundamentals, and short - term oil prices are expected to maintain a moderately bullish pattern [6]. 3. Summaries by Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons (4.48%). As of January 9, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. In December 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.7%, a year - on - year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 percentage points. The LPI in December 2025 was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high of 1.137 million vehicles in the past four years, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20%, a month - on - month increase of 2.64%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.72%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0424 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 139,200 tons. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.30%, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%; the acetic acid operating rate was 81.89%, a week - on - week increase of 4.28%; the MTBE operating rate was 58.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.33 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.17%. As of January 9, 2026, the futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 264 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.1593 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 402,300 tons. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 80,500 tons [10][11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of January 2, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a week - on - week increase of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.811 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 248,000 barrels per day. As of the week of January 2, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 419 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.832 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.414 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.84 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 728,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 413.5 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 245,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 94.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.4 percentage points. As of January 6, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 57,352 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 7,239 contracts and a 2.41% decrease from the December average. As of January 6, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 120,686 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 6,220 contracts and a 14.44% increase from the December average [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,850 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 16,160 yuan/ton | +185 yuan/ton | - 310 yuan/ton | - 135 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,280 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | 2,288 yuan/ton | +25 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 417.2 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 448.0 yuan/barrel | +1.3 yuan/barrel | - 30.8 yuan/barrel | - 1.2 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and operating rate charts, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [17][30][42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rubber market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,975 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,140 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The trading volume was 380,256 lots, an increase of 30,564 lots. The position of the 05 contract was 194,674 lots, a decrease of 5,832 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity was 105,590 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. The net short position of the top 20 members was 46,325 lots, a decrease of 239 lots [2]. - **Spread Data**: The spot - futures main spread was - 275 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan; the mixed - futures main spread was - 925 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan. The RU05 - RU09 spread was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,170 US dollars/ton, unchanged; STR20 was 1,935 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; SMR20 was 1,925 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; SIR20 was 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber was 12,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; Qilu cis - butadiene rubber was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard rubber was 1900 - 1910 US dollars/ton (near - port) and 1910 - 1915 US dollars/ton (spot), with an increase of 20/15 US dollars; Thai mixed rubber was 1910 - 1915 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; African 10 was 1855 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15/5 US dollars [2]. - **Trend Intensity**: The rubber trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]. 3.2 Industry News - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, or 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [3][4]. - In terms of basis, the spread between the RU and NR main contracts was 3,135 yuan/ton, a month - on - month expansion of 15 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 925 yuan/ton, a month - on - month contraction of 75 yuan/ton [4]. - Recently, some semi - steel tire foreign trade orders have increased, the device capacity has been further released, and some enterprises have moderately increased production, which has boosted the overall capacity utilization rate. The domestic sales performance within the cycle was average, and the enterprise's production increase was to reserve inventory [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The rubber market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The data source for fundamental information is Longzhong Information, Flush iFinD, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rubber is 0, with a range of [- 2,2]. - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [2] 3.3 Industry News - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.62% (19,800 tons). Bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%, and general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13% [3][4] - The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points. For general trade warehouses, the inbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [4] - Tire companies' production schedules vary. Some semi - steel tire companies' foreign trade orders have increased significantly, leading to a notable increase in capacity utilization, while some full - steel tire companies face inventory pressure, limiting their capacity utilization. Overall sales pressure remains [4]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity futures market is experiencing mixed trends, with rubber prices showing minor declines while maintaining a stable oscillation pattern. The supply side pressure has eased due to adverse weather conditions in Thailand, impacting production levels [3][9]. Supply Side - The rubber output in Thailand has been affected by floods in the southern region, leading to a decrease in production compared to previous years. As per QinRex data, Thailand's natural rubber exports for the first 11 months of 2025 totaled 2.419 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. However, exports to China during the same period increased by 14%, totaling 945,000 tons [3][9]. - The production in Southeast Asia's main rubber-producing regions is expected to remain stable or slightly increase in the fourth quarter, suggesting that localized production declines will have a limited impact on overall annual output [3][9]. Inventory - According to Steel Union data, the inventory of dry rubber in Qingdao was 524,800 tons for the week ending December 26, up from 515,200 tons the previous week. The social inventory data has not been updated, but it is anticipated that the overall inventory remains in an accumulation phase, indicating greater inventory pressure than in previous periods [10]. Demand Side - The operating rates for downstream steel tires were reported at 61.95% for full steel tires and 72.05% for semi-steel tires for the week ending December 25. The full steel tire operating rate has decreased compared to the previous week, while the semi-steel tire rate has seen a slight increase. Both rates are below those of the same period last year, indicating stable demand without significant changes [10]. Market Outlook - The recent market performance is characterized by a strong tendency, driven by easing supply-side pressures and macroeconomic support from crude oil prices. However, there is significant inventory pressure as the market enters an accumulation phase, compounded by heightened risk aversion as the holiday season approaches. It is recommended to reduce positions in rubber and 20 rubber before the holiday [4][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the sentiment in the natural rubber market improved, leading to rising rubber prices. Despite factors like the slowdown in factory rubber - purchasing in Hainan due to approaching the end of the harvest season, high - yield overseas production, and increasing port inventories, the positive sentiment among traders supported the price increase. With the expected reduction in overseas ship arrivals, the inventory accumulation at ports may slow down, providing short - term support to the natural rubber market [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The day - session closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,780 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day; the night - session closing price was 15,775 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 42,266 lots to 340,531 lots, while the open interest of the 05 contract increased by 3,095 lots to 185,943 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 700 tons to 93,930 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members increased by 521 lots to 40,467 lots [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" decreased by 20 to - 480, and the basis of "mixed - futures main contract" decreased by 70 to - 1,000. The month - spread of RU05 - RU09 decreased by 15 to 30. Among the foreign quotes, RSS3 increased by 20 to 2,130 dollars/ton, SMR20 increased by 5 to 1,875 dollars/ton, and SIR20 increased by 10 to 1,800 dollars/ton, while STR20 remained unchanged at 1,880 dollars/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 100 to 11,500 yuan/ton, and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber increased by 150 to 11,300 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Market**: In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai mixed rubber was 1,865 dollars/ton for near - port and 1,870 dollars/ton for spot. The price of Thai standard rubber was in the range of 1,860 - 1,865 dollars/ton, down 5 - 10 dollars/ton from the previous day [2] 3.2 Industry News - Last week, the average weekly price of Shanghai full - latex was 15,040 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.60%; the average weekly price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber in the Qingdao market was 1,852 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars or 0.65%; the average weekly price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao market was 14,608 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan or 0.68% [3][4] - In December 2025, the estimated import volume of natural rubber in China is 71.91 tons, an increase of 7.55 tons compared to the final import volume in November. With most overseas production areas in the peak - production period and no significant improvement in EU EUDR procurement, more overseas supplies are flowing into China [4]