热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 天然橡胶和20号胶评论： 今日商品期货市场涨跌互现，前期强势的贵金属、有色及新能源板块跌幅较大，市场情绪不及前期。橡 胶回落幅度较小，维持震荡格局，RU05日线收跌0.44%；NR02日线收跌0.43%；技术上，天然橡胶和20 号胶在60日均线上方。 橡胶供应端来看，由于11月泰国南部地区洪水导致橡胶产出不及往年同期，橡胶供应端压力较前期有所 缓解；QinRex数据显示，2025年前11个月，泰国出口天然橡胶合计为241.9万吨，同比降7%；1-11月， 出口到中国天然橡胶合计为94.5万吨，同比增14%。东南亚主产区四季度产量大概率维持稳中有增，阶 段性、区域性的产出降低对全年的产出影响或有限。 库存方面：钢联数据显示，12月26日当周青岛干胶库存为52.48万吨，高于前一周的51.52万吨；社会库 存数据未更新，预计社会库存仍为累库态势，库存压力大于前期。 需求端来看，下游开工率方面，12月25日当周全钢胎开工率61.95%，半钢胎开工率为72.05%，全钢胎 开工率均较前一周回落，半钢胎开工率较前一周略回升，全钢胎、半钢胎的开工率均不及去 ...

2025 年 12 月 29 日 橡胶：震荡偏强 20251229 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 15. 780 | 15, 730 | +50 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 15, 775 | 15, 715 | +60 | | | | 成交量(手) | 340, 531 | 382, 797 | -42, 266 | | | (05合约) | 持企量 (手) | 185, 943 | 182, 848 | +3, 095 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 93.930 | 93, 230 | +700 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 40. 467 | 39.946 | +521 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 现货-期货主力 | -480 | -430 | -20 | | | | 混合-期货主力 | -1.000 | -930 | -70 | | | 月差 | RU0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - On Wednesday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and closing sharply higher. The intraday price center shifted significantly up to around 15,650 yuan/ton, closing up 2.42% at 15,650 yuan/ton. The 1-5 month spread discount widened to 30 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply and demand fundamentals, and the rubber price broke out of the triangular range and formed an upward breakthrough pattern [6]. - On Wednesday this week, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,179 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,143 yuan/ton, closing up 0.88% at 2,172 yuan/ton. The 1-5 month spread discount widened to 38 yuan/ton. Supported by a small rebound in domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures started an oscillating and strengthening trend [6]. - On Wednesday this week, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of decreasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rebounding. The futures price rose to a maximum of 444.8 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 439.7 yuan/barrel, closing up 0.68% at 444.7 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have become prominent again, and the conflict between the United States and Venezuela has escalated, posing risks to the export of Venezuelan crude oil. The strengthening of geopolitical premiums has driven the oil price to rebound, and crude oil futures may temporarily stabilize in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,300 tons or 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%. The general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 3.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.02 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.73 percentage points [10]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week-on-week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week-on-week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The resumption of production by maintenance enterprises during the week drove the capacity utilization rate to a certain extent. The overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run steadily and weakly this week. Currently, the shipment rhythms of enterprises vary, with most enterprises having slow shipments. Under production and sales pressure, enterprises will continue flexible production control. As the finished product inventory continues to rise, it is not ruled out that individual enterprises will conduct maintenance or reduce production [10]. - In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year-on-year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom-bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [11]. - In November 2025, China's heavy truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month-on-month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year and a year-on-year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth, from April to November, with an average growth rate of up to 42%. Cumulatively, from January to November this year, China's heavy truck market has sold more than 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 26% [11]. Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 84.31%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.57%, a slight month-on-month increase of 0.37%, and a small increase of 2.95% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 31.37%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.03%. In the case of dimethyl ether, the operating rate remained at 8.68%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 73.81%, a week-on-week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 59.12%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.21%. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefins plants was 82.06%, a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a slight month-on-month increase of 0.24%. As of December 18, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was -205 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a significant month-on-month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East China and South China regions in China remained at 1.0201 million tons, a significant week-on-week decrease of 98,400 tons, a significant month-on-month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a significant increase of 88,400 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 391,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 38,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 32,500 tons, and a small increase of 9,500 tons compared with 381,700 tons in the same period last year [13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 19, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 406, a week-on-week decrease of 8 and a decrease of 77 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.843 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a significant year-on-year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [13]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424.4 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a significant year-on-year increase of 3.401 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, in the United States reached 20.862 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 742,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 412.2 million barrels, a week-on-week increase of 249,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States remained at 94.8%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month-on-month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a small year-on-year increase of 3.0 percentage points [14]. - As of December 9, 2025, the average non-commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 58,433 contracts, a significant week-on-week increase of 7,396 contracts and a significant decrease of 6,438 contracts or 9.92% compared with the November average of 64,871 contracts. On the other hand, as of December 16, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 40,988 contracts, a significant week-on-week decrease of 72,871 contracts and a significant decrease of 114,200 contracts or 73.59% compared with the November average of 155,188 contracts [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,100 yuan/ton | +250 yuan/ton | 15,650 yuan/ton | +360 yuan/ton | -550 yuan/ton | -110 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,175 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,172 yuan/ton | +16 yuan/ton | +3 yuan/ton | -6 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 408.2 yuan/barrel | -0.3 yuan/barrel | 444.7 yuan/barrel | +3.8 yuan/barrel | -36.5 yuan/barrel | -4.1 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Relevant Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, rubber 1-5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all-steel tire operating rate trend, and semi-steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][18][21][22][24]. - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 1-5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefins operating rate change, and coal-to-methanol cost accounting [29][31][33][35][37][39]. - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][44][46][48][50][52].

近期，沪胶期货2605合约延续区间震荡走势。一方面，国内云南、海南等天然橡胶主产区已步入停割 季，供应压力有所缓解。同时，国内新车产销量好于市场预期，为胶价提供利多支撑。另一方面，轮胎 出口遇阻，青岛保税区橡胶库存持续攀升，偏空因素不容忽视。在多空因素交织背景下，预计沪胶期货 短期内难以摆脱区间震荡格局。 2025年国内轮胎市场呈现 "总量稳增、结构优化、内外协同"的发展特征，产业规模与发展质量实现双 提升。据国家统计局数据，2025年11月，我国橡胶轮胎外胎产量为10182.8万条，同比小幅下降2.6%；1 —11月累计外胎产量达110311.5万条，同比微增0.6%。受下游采购节奏放缓影响，青岛保税区橡胶库存 持续回升。 据统计，截至2025年12月21日，青岛地区天然橡胶保税及一般贸易总库存量达51.52万吨，周度增加1.63 万吨，增幅为3.28%。这已是库存连续第8周增长，凸显当前天然橡胶市场的淡季需求特征。 综上所述，当前国内胶市多空因素分歧显著，后市沪胶期货将延续区间整理走势。（作者单位：宝城期 货） 编辑：吴郑思 相较于云南，海南产区停割进程稍晚，目前已进入收尾阶段。上周末，受气温走低影响，海 ...

2025 年 12 月 22 日 合成橡胶：逐渐步入震荡格局 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （02合约） | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,020 127,276 | 11,040 127,434 | -20 -158 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 101,995 | 101,376 | 619 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 703,480 | 706,452 | -2972 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -170 | -90 | -80 | | | 月差 | BR01-BR05 | | -80 | -125 | 45 | | 现货市场 | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 10,600 | 10,650 | | | | | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Rubber - On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The intraday price center slightly moved down to around 15,210 yuan/ton, closing down 0.46% to 15,210 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices remain volatile within a range [6]. Methanol - On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price reached a maximum of 2,140 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,115 yuan/ton, closing down 0.79% to 2,128 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 86 yuan/ton. As the supply - demand outlook for methanol shows an improving trend, methanol futures prices are expected to see a valuation repair in the future [7]. Crude Oil - On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price rose to a maximum of 452.8 yuan/barrel and fell to a minimum of 444.6 yuan/barrel, closing down 1.15% to 448.1 yuan/barrel. The oversupply situation is pitted against the seasonal recovery in demand. Coupled with the weakening of macro - sentiment and the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium of crude oil is weakening [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons or 2.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 72,400 tons with a growth rate of 0.69%, and the general trade inventory was 409,200 tons with a growth rate of 3.07%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 6.55 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.43 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.23 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.66 percentage points [10]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points week - on - week and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points week - on - week but an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased this week due to maintenance in some semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises, mainly because of insufficient orders, slow shipments, and equipment upgrades in some sample enterprises. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will recover next week, but the overall demand growth is limited, and production control by enterprises will restrict the increase in capacity utilization [11]. - In November 2025, China's auto dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year - on - year and 3.0 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory warning index is above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the auto circulation industry [11]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a decrease of about 6% from October this year but a significant increase of about 46% from 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth from April to November, with an average growth rate of up to 42%. Cumulatively, from January to November this year, the total sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [12]. Methanol - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.77%, a slight decrease of 0.17% week - on - week, a small increase of 1.06% month - on - month, and a small increase of 4.08% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0142 million tons, a small increase of 38,100 tons week - on - week, a small increase of 70,700 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 134,000 tons compared with 1.8802 million tons in the same period last year [13]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.28%, a slight increase of 0.05% week - on - week. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 5.31%, a slight decrease of 0.96% week - on - week. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 66.53%, a small increase of 2.89% week - on - week. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.91%, a small increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a slight increase of 0.85 percentage points week - on - week but a small decrease of 3.78% month - on - month. As of November 21, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was 316 yuan/ton, a slight recovery of 7 yuan/ton week - on - week and a significant rebound of 537 yuan/ton month - on - month [13]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.2439 million tons, a small decrease of 35,100 tons week - on - week, a small decrease of 25,900 tons month - on - month, but a significant increase of 184,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of November 27, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 373,700 tons, a small increase of 15,000 tons week - on - week, a small increase of 13,300 tons month - on - month, and a slight increase of 4,500 tons compared with 369,200 tons in the same period last year [14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 419, a small increase of 2 rigs week - on - week but a decrease of 60 rigs compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.814 million barrels, a small decrease of 20,000 barrels per day week - on - week but a significant increase of 321,000 barrels per day year - on - year, remaining at a historical high [14]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426.9 million barrels, a significant increase of 2.774 million barrels week - on - week but a significant decrease of 1.519 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 21.753 million barrels, a small decrease of 68,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 411 million barrels, a small increase of 498,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 92.3%, a small increase of 2.3 percentage points week - on - week, a small recovery of 5.7 percentage points month - on - month, and a small increase of 1.8 percentage points year - on - year [15]. - As of October 14, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 60,991 contracts, a significant decrease of 13,318 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 36,857 contracts or 37.67% compared with the average in September. As of November 25, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 125,587 contracts, a significant decrease of 52,240 contracts week - on - week but a significant increase of 6,176 contracts or 5.17% compared with the average in October [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,210 yuan/ton | -150 yuan/ton | -360 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,135 yuan/ton | -5 yuan/ton | 2,128 yuan/ton | -4 yuan/ton | +7 yuan/ton | -1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 417.1 yuan/barrel | -0.2 yuan/barrel | 448.1 yuan/barrel | -5.7 yuan/barrel | -31.0 yuan/barrel | +5.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (including rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend), methanol (including methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting), and crude oil (including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change) [17][30][43].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Chlor-alkali Industry**: The PVC market is facing significant challenges due to weak real estate demand and export uncertainties. As of mid-October, the profit from externally sourced calcium carbide for PVC has further declined, reaching below negative 300 yuan, and expanding to a range of negative 350 to 400 yuan [1][3]. - **Soda Ash**: The industry is expected to see new capacity coming online in 2025, maintaining supply pressure. Soda ash prices have slightly decreased to around 2,450 yuan, with ECU profits falling to the range of 200 to 300 yuan, which is an improvement compared to August and September [1][6]. Key Points on PVC Market - **Capacity and Production**: By 2025, PVC capacity is projected to reach 33.94 million tons, with an increase of 2.6 million tons, marking an 8.3% growth, the highest in nearly a decade. However, weak real estate demand and export uncertainties are expected to keep the market fundamentals weak [2][4]. - **Inventory Levels**: PVC inventory levels are significantly higher than in previous years, with the latest inventory at 505,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 25%. High inventory is attributed to new capacity, reduced maintenance, and insufficient demand [5]. - **Export Outlook**: The export volume is expected to slightly decline in Q4 compared to Q3 due to the Indian anti-dumping policy being a core variable. However, the recent removal of BS certification requirements for PVC by India may reduce export volatility [4]. Key Points on Soda Ash Market - **Production and Supply**: The soda ash industry plans to add 1.5 million tons of new capacity in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%. Current production is stable, with weekly output maintaining around 80,000 tons [6][8]. - **Export Performance**: From January to September 2025, soda ash exports reached approximately 3.098 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 46%, primarily to the overseas alumina industry [10]. - **Domestic Demand**: The domestic alumina industry maintains a high operating rate, supporting strong demand for soda ash. The textile and dyeing industry has also seen a recovery, contributing to stable soda ash demand [11][12]. LPG Market Insights - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: In November, delays in port operations reduced LPG imports, but increased pressure is expected in late November. The PDH units' maintenance has led to a temporary decline in demand, but a recovery is anticipated in December [14][15]. - **Import Trends**: Domestic LPG production is expected to be around 40 million tons, with net imports of 19.4 million tons, accounting for 48% of total supply. The impact of U.S. tariffs has significantly reduced the share of U.S. LPG imports [15]. Natural Rubber Market Overview - **Price Stability**: Natural rubber prices have stabilized between 15,000 and 15,500 yuan. Despite concerns about inventory accumulation, current absolute inventory levels are not high, and no significant accumulation has been observed [24][25]. - **Demand Growth**: From January to September, natural rubber imports increased by 20%, indicating strong consumption. The total inventory levels are similar to last year, suggesting that the increased imports have been absorbed by the market [29]. - **Market Sentiment**: The market is currently dominated by short positions, with significant short interest remaining. However, the absence of strong long positions indicates a potential for price volatility [34][36]. Conclusion - The chlor-alkali and natural rubber markets are facing various challenges, including high inventory levels and weak demand. The soda ash market shows some resilience due to strong domestic demand, while the LPG market is adjusting to supply chain pressures. Overall, careful monitoring of export policies and domestic demand trends will be crucial for future market performance.

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Natural Rubber - Short - term macro - atmosphere improves, fundamentals improve, and rubber prices rebound. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak production season of main producing areas and macro - level changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward space; if not, rubber prices are expected to run around 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. Logs - Currently, there is no obvious driving force in the log supply - demand situation. The 01 contract is relatively strong. New rounds of foreign quotes have increased, and subsequent port fees are expected to rise, providing strong cost support. During the seasonal peak season, there is some support below the futures price, and the 01 contract may be strong [4]. Industrial Silicon - Some industrial silicon spot prices have decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and futures have fluctuated and closed down by 20 yuan/ton to 8,485 yuan/ton. In September, exports decreased by 8% month - on - month to 70,200 tons, but still increased year - on - year. In October, industrial silicon supply has increased significantly, with inventory risks, and prices will still be under pressure. Although some enterprises in the southwest region have reduced production, the impact on output is small. Considering the possible increase in raw material costs, the price center of gravity is expected to move up in the future. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is relatively stable. On one hand, pay attention to policy implementation and production control; on the other hand, pay attention to whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side. Currently, it is mainly in a high - level shock. In November, production reduction in the southwest region during the dry season will relieve the pressure of production growth and support prices. Be vigilant against the risk of inventory accumulation due to insufficient demand [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: Driven by the strengthening of coking coal - related varieties, the soda ash futures price has rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Previously, soda ash has been weak, with manufacturers' inventories and mid - stream delivery inventories increasing. The supply is in excess. In the medium - term, downstream demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid - demand level. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the strategy of short - selling on rebounds can be continued [7]. - **Glass**: Driven by the strengthening of coking coal - related varieties, the glass futures price has rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Manufacturers' sales are average, and prices are continuously decreasing. The trading sentiment reflects that the peak season is not prosperous and the supply is in excess. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and capacity clearance is needed to solve the over - supply problem [7]. Summaries by Directory Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of SCRWF in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.70%. The basis improved by 100 yuan/ton to - 750 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.34% [1]. - The FOB intermediate price of cup - lump in the international market increased by 0.25 Thai baht/kg to 50.45 Thai baht/kg, with a growth rate of 0.50% [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 11.11% [1]. - The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamentals - In August, Thailand's production decreased by 2,000 tons to 460,800 tons, with a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 8,500 tons to 189,000 tons, with a decline of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5,000 tons to 50,000 tons, with a growth rate of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12,200 tons to 113,700 tons [1]. - The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires increased by 26.21 percentage points to 72.72%, and the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 20.56 percentage points to 64.52% [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures fluctuated. The 2601 contract closed at 831.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan/cubic meter [4]. - The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 760 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter [4]. Supply - As of October 17, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week [4]. - This week, 12 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 0 ships from the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 438,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 5% [4]. Demand - As of October 17, the daily average log delivery volume was 63,200 cubic meters, an increase of 5,900 cubic meters from the previous week [4]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis of Main Contracts - The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,350 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 20 yuan/ton to 865 yuan/ton [5]. - The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,650 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 365 yuan/ton [5]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 8,445 yuan/ton to - 8,485 yuan/ton, with a decline of 21,112.50% [5]. - The 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 370 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.37% [5]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon production increased by 35,100 tons to 420,800 tons, with a growth rate of 9.10% [5]. - The production in Xinjiang increased by 33,600 tons to 203,200 tons, with a growth rate of 19.78% [5]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 10 tons to 108,500 tons, with a decline of 0.09% [5]. - The social inventory increased by 17,000 tons to 562,000 tons, with a growth rate of 3.12% [5]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of polysilicon increased by 0.2 yuan/kg to 53 yuan/kg and then stabilized; the futures price fluctuated and slightly decreased by 405 yuan/ton to 50,310 yuan/ton, with the futures at a discount [6]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The main contract decreased by 405 yuan/ton to 50,310 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.80% [6]. - The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 52,235 yuan/ton to - 50,310 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2,713.51% [6]. Fundamental Data - This week, the production of silicon wafers increased by 1.52 GW to 14.35 GW, with a growth rate of 11.85% [6]. - The production of polysilicon remained unchanged at 31,000 tons [6]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 253,000 tons, with a growth rate of 5.42% [6]. - The silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.53 GW to 17.31 GW, with a growth rate of 3.16% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,140 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.72% [7]. - The 2505 glass contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1,236 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.40% [7]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash price remained unchanged at 1,300 yuan/ton [7]. - The 2505 soda ash contract increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,308 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.77% [7]. Supply - The weekly production of soda ash increased by 25,000 tons to 770,800 tons, with a growth rate of 3.37% [7]. - The daily melting volume of float glass remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [7]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 346,900 heavy boxes to 6.2824 million heavy boxes, with a growth rate of 5.84% [7]. - The soda ash factory inventory increased by 27,000 tons to 699,100 tons, with a growth rate of 4.05% [7].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Short - term drivers are limited, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak - production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if raw material supply is poor, rubber prices are expected to trade between 15,000 - 15,500 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 16, prices of various natural rubber varieties showed different changes, with the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai rising 50 yuan to 14,300 yuan/ton, a 0.35% increase. The basis of whole latex increased by 6.98%. Other varieties also had corresponding price and basis changes [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan to - 10 yuan/ton, a - 166.67% change; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 yuan to 10 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 15 yuan to 0 yuan/ton, a 100% increase [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 20,000 tons to 458,800 tons, a - 0.43% change; Indonesia's production decreased by 85,000 tons to 189,000 tons, a - 4.30% change. China's production increased by 122,000 tons to 113,700 tons. The weekly开工 rates of semi - steel and full - steel automobile tires increased significantly. Domestic tire production in August increased by 8.59 million to 102.954 million, a 9.10% increase. Tire exports decreased by 364,000 to 6.301 million, a - 5.46% change. Natural rubber imports increased by 46,000 tons to 520,800 tons, a 9.68% increase [2]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 4,663 tons to 456,525 tons, a - 1.01% change; the warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 705 tons to 41,329 tons, a - 1.68% change [2]. Group 2: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Currently, there is no obvious driver in the supply and demand of logs. The near - month 11 - contract has insufficient willingness of long - positions to take delivery, and the far - month 01 - contract is relatively strong. The external quotation is firm, while the spot price has limited upward momentum. The 11 - contract is approaching the delivery month and may face greater pressure from hedging positions. The overall inventory is low, and the market may mainly fluctuate widely in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 16, the log 2511 contract closed at 797 yuan/cubic meter, up 4 yuan. The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 760 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter [4]. - **Supply**: This week, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive, 6 more than last week; the total arrival volume is about 455,500 cubic meters, an increase of 200,500 cubic meters from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country was 2.99 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from last week. The daily average log delivery volume was 57,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,300 cubic meters from last week [4]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The overall trend is weakening, with factory and intermediate - level inventories increasing. Supply is in excess, and demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid - demand level in the medium term. The market should follow macro - level fluctuations and the production - load adjustment of soda - ash plants. The overall strategy is to short on rebounds [5]. - **Glass**: The market is sluggish during the peak season, with fundamental oversupply. Deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak. In the long - term, the industry needs to clear excess capacity. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions for now and pay attention to spot - purchasing rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers in the medium term [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The North China quotation decreased by 10 yuan to 1,210 yuan, a - 0.82% change; the glass 2505 contract increased by 17 yuan to 1,284 yuan, a 1.34% increase. The 05 basis decreased by 27 yuan to - 74 yuan, a - 57.45% change [5]. - **Soda - Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The North China quotation remained at 1,300 yuan; the soda - ash 2505 contract increased by 6 yuan to 1,325 yuan, a 0.45% increase. The 05 basis decreased by 6 yuan to - 25 yuan, a - 31.58% change [5]. - **Supply**: The soda - ash well - working rate increased by 3.37% to 88.41%, and the weekly soda - ash production increased by 25,000 tons to 770,800 tons, a 3.37% increase. The float - glass daily melting volume increased by 2,000 tons to 161,300 tons, a 1.16% increase [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass end - user inventory increased by 346,900 heavy - boxes to 6.2824 million heavy - boxes, a 5.84% increase; the soda - ash factory inventory increased by 60,000 tons to 1.6598 million tons, a 3.74% increase [5]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year change of new construction area was - 0.09%, an improvement of 0.09 percentage points; the construction area decreased by 2.43 percentage points to 0.05%; the completion area decreased by 0.03 percentage points to - 0.22%; the sales area decreased by 6.50 percentage points to - 6.55% [5]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Industrial silicon supply increases, putting pressure on prices, but there is also cost support below. It is expected to trade in a low - level range, mainly between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract drops to around 8,000 yuan/ton, long positions can be considered [6]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 15, the prices of various industrial - silicon varieties remained unchanged, while the basis decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon decreased by 50 yuan to 830 yuan, a - 5.68% change [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 120 yuan to 90 yuan, a 400% increase; the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 7 yuan to - 375 yuan, a 2.60% increase [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the national industrial - silicon production increased by 35,100 tons to 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase; the national开工 rate increased by 6.07 percentage points to 61.94%. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 12,900 tons to 210,200 tons, a - 5.78% change [6]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2,200 tons to 108,600 tons, a 2.07% increase; the social inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 545,000 tons [6]. Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The polysilicon market is relatively stable. On one hand, pay attention to policy implementation and production control; on the other hand, focus on whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side. Currently, polysilicon is mainly in high - level fluctuations. Supply pressure increases, which may lead to price pressure, but if the spot is firm, the downside support is still strong [7]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 15, the average price of N - type re - feedstock remained at 52,750 yuan/ton; the N - type material basis decreased by 875 yuan to 1,885 yuan, a - 31.70% change [7]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract increased by 875 yuan to 20,800 yuan, a 1.75% increase; the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was - 110 yuan [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon - wafer production decreased by 0.95 GW to 12.83 GW, a - 6.89% change; monthly polysilicon production decreased by 1,700 tons to 130,000 tons, a - 1.29% change [7]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 14,000 tons to 240,000 tons, a 6.19% increase; silicon - wafer inventory increased by 55,000 tons to 167,800 tons, a 3.39% increase [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rebar and Coil: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Soda Ash: Weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Palm Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No.2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No.1: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live Pigs: Oscillating weakly [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: Buy on dips [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The short - term recovery of the manufacturing industry has been interrupted, and the market has seen corrections due to expected deviations. Different industries face various supply - demand situations and policy impacts, leading to diverse price trends [2] - Market sentiment in the financial sector is warming up, with increased liquidity. Interest rate policies and geopolitical factors are influencing market trends [4] - In the agricultural and soft commodity sectors, factors such as production, consumption, and policies are affecting the supply - demand balance and price movements of different products [6][7][9] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global shipments have increased significantly, port inventories have slightly risen, and terminal demand is weak. Although there is a production - cut expectation in the north in late August, the limit - production intensity is not as expected. The short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. The recovery of coal mines is slow, and downstream enterprises'开工 is high. The short - term adjustment range is limited, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the bearish sentiment in the black sector is released [2] - **Rebar and Coil**: The production - limit policy in Tangshan is clear, but the production - cut is not as expected. Building material demand has declined, external demand has been overdrawn in advance, and real - estate investment continues to fall. The overall steel market inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term futures price is expected to adjust downward to find support [2] - **Glass**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the mid - and downstream are in the stage of digesting previous inventories. Supply and demand have not improved significantly in the short term. The long - term demand is difficult to pick up due to the adjustment of the real - estate industry [2] - **Soda Ash**: The short - term spot is weak, and the futures price has broken through the support level. Attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2] Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indexes. There is capital inflow in some sectors and outflow in others. The new LPR remains unchanged, and policies are being implemented to support the economy. Market sentiment is warming up, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased, and the central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations. The market interest rate fluctuates, and the Treasury bond trend is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as the US debt problem, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks are affecting the price. The short - term price is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4] Soft Commodities and Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is stable, and the cost support for the pulp price has weakened. The paper - making industry's profitability is low, and demand is in the off - season. The pulp price is expected to consolidate [6] - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume at the port has decreased slightly, and the supply pressure is not large. The inventory is declining, and the cost support has increased. The short - term price is expected to range - bound oscillate [6] - **Rubber**: The impact of weather factors on the main producing areas has weakened, but geopolitical conflicts still have a small impact. The demand for tires is relatively stable, and the inventory at Qingdao Port is decreasing. The short - term price is expected to be strong [9] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are increasing, but the inventory is lower than expected. The export demand is strong. Domestic soybean imports are high, and the inventory of different oils is changing. The short - term price is expected to oscillate and correct [6] - **Meal Products**: The USDA has lowered the planting area of soybeans, and the production and inventory are expected to decline. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed have increased the cost. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply is increasing. The demand is restricted by high temperatures. The price is expected to oscillate in the future [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The US commercial crude oil inventory has decreased significantly, and the price is oscillating and rising. The short - term supply is still tight, and the price follows the oil price [9] - **PTA**: The cost - side support is general, the supply is gradually recovering, and the demand from downstream polyester factories is increasing. The price follows the cost [9] - **MEG**: The port inventory has decreased slightly, and the supply pressure is increasing. The short - term cost fluctuates greatly, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to buy on dips [9] - **PR**: The cost is supported by the overnight rise in crude oil, but the demand is only for rigid low - price replenishment, and the trading is dull [9] - **PF**: Downstream orders have improved slightly, and the factory inventory pressure is not large. Multiple factors are boosting the market, and it is expected to strengthen [9]