Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened low and moved high, closing down at the end of the session. The weak futures market affected the spot sentiment, with upstream factories having poor sales and prices showing a downward trend. The supply is sufficient, and although some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance in August, the daily output remains high. The demand in the main delivery areas has weakened, and the domestic demand has declined. Despite the support of export containerization, the inventory reduction rate has slowed down, indicating weak terminal demand. The current market is bearish, but there is still a possibility of a rebound. Overall, the market remains in a weak and volatile state [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures market was weak, affecting the spot market. Supply is ample, and although there will be maintenance in August, the daily output stays high. The demand in the main delivery areas has weakened, and domestic demand is sluggish. The market is currently bearish but may rebound, remaining weak and volatile [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1730 yuan/ton, moved high, and closed down at 1744 yuan/ton, with a decline of -0.06%. The trading volume was 152,980 lots (-144 lots). Among the top 20 major positions, long positions increased by 1,701 lots, and short positions increased by 3,744 lots [2] - **Spot**: The weak futures market affected the spot sentiment, with upstream factories having poor sales and prices showing a downward trend. The mainstream ex - factory prices of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton, and the transaction center continued to move down [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the September contract basis at 26 yuan/ton (-26 yuan/ton) [8] - **Supply Data**: On July 29, 2025, the national daily urea output was 193,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.47% [11]

7月2日，国内商品多数上涨，多晶硅大涨7%，触及涨停并维持至收盘，玻璃涨超6%，工业硅、氧化铝涨超4%，硅铁、生猪、碳酸锂、烧碱、焦煤、焦炭、 纯碱涨超3%，螺纹、热卷、锰硅涨超2%，红枣、PVC、尿素、铁矿石、菜油、棕榈油、原木、甲醇、沪胶等涨超1%；下跌品种跌幅均不足1%。 中证商品期货价格指数日内走势图（来源：新华财经专业终端） 同样产能过剩的玻璃今日也在市场预期下显著走强。市场消息显示，面对"内卷式"竞争加剧和需求减弱的背景，多数光伏玻璃企业已计划自7月起主动减 产，预计减产规模将达到30%。光伏玻璃的减产也对玻璃盘面形成了一定的支撑。但当前终端需求持续下滑而库存虽然开始去化但仍旧处在高位，因此展望 后市，西南期货认为，当前多数深加工企业仍然刚需维持，实际供需矛盾不突出，市场情绪偏淡，盘面已然历史绝对低位，短时或有多头情绪发酵，但预计 持续性一般。 鸡蛋反弹依然乏力 今日下跌品种较少，且跌幅均不足1%。鸡蛋近期低位企稳，但反弹力度仍显不足。目前蛋鸡存栏量处于高位，前期补栏的蛋鸡新开产压力较大，鸡蛋供应 比较充足。同时，受梅雨季节影响，高温高湿气候下鸡蛋存储成本增加，下游经销商采购谨慎，蛋价持续处于同期 ...