Core Logic - The supply-demand balance of commodities is fundamental, with cost valuation serving as a strong support when there is a clear oversupply, while it becomes a mere reference when there is a significant shortage [1] - The analysis focuses on representative varieties from non-ferrous metals, black metals, and energy chemicals, assessing their performance over the next 3-5 years based on the surplus ratio [2][4] Historical & Future Analysis - Over the past 3-10 years, only copper has consistently shown a shortage, with projections indicating that copper and zinc will be in short supply by 2025, particularly copper [4] - For the next 3-5 years, copper remains the best long-term investment, followed by aluminum and zinc [4] Cost Valuation Overview - The article provides a detailed table of historical and projected balance estimates for various metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, nickel, iron ore, and crude oil, indicating whether cost valuation is considered [6] - The cash cost structure of copper mining is closely linked to crude oil prices, with significant components including materials, labor, fuel, and electricity [11][19] Copper Market Insights - The cash cost of copper mining is expected to rise slightly, influenced by oil price fluctuations and mining efficiency [15][21] - The current supply of copper cannot meet the demand for electrolytic copper, suggesting that copper prices will not enter a cost-based pricing phase unless a global recession occurs [20][22] Aluminum Market Outlook - The aluminum market is expected to experience an expanding supply-demand gap, with domestic production capacity constraints and increasing demand driven by electrification [24][30] Lead-Zinc Market Dynamics - The cash costs of lead-zinc mining are driven by GDP growth and energy prices, with labor and consumables being significant cost components [31][32] - The cash cost structure indicates that zinc prices are closely aligned with cash costs, providing a solid support level [37][42] Tin Market Analysis - The cost structure of tin mining is complex, with mining costs, energy costs, and compliance costs significantly impacting overall expenses [44][50] - The global tin mining cost center is expected to rise due to declining ore grades and increasing energy and labor costs [47][51] Nickel Market Projections - Nickel is projected to remain in a surplus state for the next few years, with cost valuation becoming more significant post-2026 as production growth slows [52][57] Iron Ore and Crude Oil Cost Structures - The cost structure of iron ore mining varies significantly by region, with Australian and Brazilian operations generally having lower costs compared to Chinese operations [61][66] - Crude oil extraction costs are influenced by geological conditions and regional policies, with significant variations across different countries [78][80]