截至9月30日收盘，全球大宗商品期货市场三季度交易正式落幕。 今年前三季度，全球大宗商品市场呈现出明显的分化态势，代表走势的CRB价格指数最新收报300.6 点，累计涨幅达1.31%。其中，贵金属期货集体大幅上扬，美国铂金期货主力连续合约累计涨幅最大， 达到77.45%，显著领涨其他商品期货；部分软饮料期货品种主力连续合约则跌幅显著。 展望四季度，业内人士表示，美联储降息周期开启将使大宗商品的宏观环境趋于稳定，但受品种基本面 差异影响，大宗商品走势分化的格局或持续。 全球主要大宗商品期货走势分化 今年前三季度，全球主要大宗商品期货走势分化。文华财经数据显示，截至9月30日，代表全球大宗商 品价格走势的CRB价格指数收盘报300.6点，前三季度累计上涨1.31%。 分品种来看，在统计的32个全球主要大宗商品期货中，前三季度，12个品种累计涨幅实现正收益，比例 为37.5%。 其中，贵金属家族期货表现亮眼，美国铂金期货主力连续合约累计涨幅最大，达到77.45%，显著领涨 其他商品期货；COMEX白银期货、COMEX黄金期货、美国钯金期货主力连续合约涨幅依次位于第二 名至第四名，累计涨幅分别为60.12%、47.3 ...

Core Insights - The global commodity futures market has shown a clear divergence in performance during the first three quarters of the year, with the CRB price index closing at 300.6 points, reflecting a cumulative increase of 1.31% [1] - Precious metals, particularly U.S. platinum futures, have significantly outperformed other commodities, with platinum futures showing the highest cumulative increase of 77.45% [2][3] - The outlook for the fourth quarter suggests that the macro environment for commodities may stabilize due to the onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, although the divergence in commodity performance is expected to continue due to fundamental differences among various commodities [1][5] Commodity Performance Overview - Among the 32 major global commodity futures, 12 commodities achieved positive returns in the first three quarters, representing 37.5% of the total [1] - The top-performing commodities include: - U.S. platinum futures: 77.45% - COMEX silver futures: 60.12% - COMEX gold futures: 47.35% - U.S. palladium futures: 42.11% [2][3] - Conversely, several commodities experienced significant declines, with ICE orange juice futures dropping by 50.23%, and ICE cocoa futures down by 41.91% [4][5] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that the strong performance of platinum is supported by both macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, with a projected supply-demand gap for platinum expected to reach a historically high level in 2025 [5] - The anticipated continuation of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle is expected to further support commodity prices, particularly gold, which is projected to maintain a bullish trend due to ongoing U.S. government debt issues [6] - In the oil market, an increase in supply coupled with seasonal demand decline is expected to create downward pressure on prices, with Brent crude oil futures projected to range between $59 and $74 per barrel [6][7] - For copper, the combination of limited supply growth due to production incidents and strong demand from the renewable energy sector is expected to positively influence prices, with forecasts suggesting a trading range of $9,800 to $11,000 per ton [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment is described as "heartfelt but stagnant," indicating a lack of significant movement in the real economy despite some initial optimism regarding commodity prices. After a surge in prices, most commodities have reverted to previous levels as demand remains unchanged [10][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - The current market dynamics have shifted from a focus on existing capital to new capital inflows. This change is driven by certain assets demonstrating clear profitability, leading to increased investment in the context of low interest rates and asset scarcity [11]. - Two main themes for capital inflow have been identified: quantitative strategies and insurance, with corresponding investments in small-cap A-shares and dividend-paying Hong Kong stocks. This trend suggests that small-cap stocks are outperforming large-cap stocks, and H-shares are outperforming A-shares [11]. - A potential shift in market style is anticipated in the coming months, particularly as bank bad debt risks become more apparent. Current fiscal policies, especially in the real estate sector, are expected to gain momentum, which may lead to a performance shift favoring cyclical and large-cap blue-chip stocks over small-cap stocks [11]. Investment Plans - **Gold**: A small allocation is recommended, indicating a cautious approach to this asset class [12]. - **Interest Rates**: The fundamental outlook remains unchanged, with a focus on maintaining a loose monetary environment. A certain proportion of medium- to short-term government bond futures has been allocated [13]. - **Commodities**: A balanced approach with both long and short positions is maintained, reflecting a selective strategy based on fundamental differences among commodities [14]. - **Equities**: No significant changes from the previous month. Long-term holdings consist of 40% in stocks that exhibit cyclical characteristics, high dividends, and low price-to-book ratios [15]. - **Mid-term Holdings**: Approximately 20% in stock index futures, benefiting from high discounts that provide adequate protection against short-term declines [16]. Additional Important Content - The report emphasizes that it is not a legal basis for investment decisions and disclaims any responsibility for investment outcomes resulting from the information provided [8][18][19]. - The document outlines the qualifications required for investors to engage with the fund, including minimum asset thresholds and income requirements, ensuring that only qualified investors participate [18]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current market conditions, investment strategies, and important disclaimers regarding the information provided.