Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Gold Market Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the gold market and its current trends, particularly in relation to macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Expectations**: The deterioration of the U.S. ADP employment data has strengthened market expectations for a potential 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, which could further drive up gold prices [1][2][3] 2. **De-dollarization Trend**: The challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve by Trump has accelerated the de-dollarization process, impacting gold's reserve value. The potential firing of Fed Governor Cook could lead to significant increases in gold prices [1][2][4] 3. **Technical Breakthrough**: Gold prices have surpassed $3,500 per ounce, marking a significant technical breakthrough with a 15% increase since then. Although the momentum may weaken, short-term adjustment pressure remains low [1][2][6] 4. **Gold Pricing Model**: The most critical factor in gold pricing is its reserve value rather than its trading or consumption value. Since 2016, gold prices have increasingly reflected the cracks in U.S. dollar credit rather than being tied to the dollar index or U.S. Treasury yields [3][4] 5. **Historical Context**: The current market is compared to historical events, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, suggesting that gold could see significant long-term growth, potentially exceeding tenfold increases over the next decade [6][8] Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Future Events to Monitor**: Key events to watch include the appointment of a compliant Federal Reserve Chair and the Supreme Court's decision regarding Cook's status, as these could further impact the independence of the Fed and, consequently, the credibility of the dollar [4][5] 2. **External Factors**: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and fluctuations in oil prices are highlighted as external factors that could influence gold prices in the short term [5][7] 3. **Investment Strategy**: Investors are advised to hold significant positions in gold and to be prepared for potential adjustments based on market signals, particularly regarding geopolitical developments and economic recovery indicators [8][9] Conclusion - The current gold market is characterized by a bullish trend driven by interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions, and technical factors. Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-term holding strategy while remaining vigilant to market changes that could present buying opportunities.

Core Insights - The global commodity futures market has shown significant divergence in performance during the first three quarters of the year, with the CRB price index closing at 300.6 points, reflecting a cumulative increase of 1.31% [1][3] - Precious metals, particularly U.S. platinum futures, have seen substantial gains, with platinum futures rising by 77.45%, leading the performance among other commodity futures [1][3] - The outlook for the fourth quarter suggests that the macro environment for commodities may stabilize due to the onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, although the divergence in commodity performance is expected to continue due to fundamental differences among various commodities [1][5] Commodity Performance - Among the 32 major global commodity futures, 12 commodities achieved positive returns in the first three quarters, representing 37.5% of the total [3] - Precious metals such as COMEX silver, COMEX gold, and U.S. palladium futures also recorded significant gains, with increases of 60.12%, 47.35%, and 42.11% respectively [3] - Conversely, several soft commodities experienced notable declines, with ICE orange juice futures dropping by 50.23%, and ICE cocoa futures down by 41.91% [4][5] Market Analysis - Analysts indicate that the recent surge in platinum prices is driven by both macroeconomic and supply-demand factors, with a projected supply-demand gap for platinum expected to reach a historically high level by 2025 [5] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts are anticipated to continue, with expectations of two more cuts in the fourth quarter, which may support the prices of gold and other assets [5][6] - The outlook for oil prices suggests a potential decline due to increasing supply and seasonal demand drops, with Brent crude oil futures expected to trade between $59 and $74 per barrel [6] Sector-Specific Insights - In the copper market, the initiation of a preventive rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve is expected to bolster overseas demand, while supply constraints due to mining accidents may support copper prices, projected to range between $9,800 and $11,000 per ton in the fourth quarter [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Oscillation [1] - Silver: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driving factors for the rise in gold prices, such as the US government debt issue and the long - term logic of de - dollarization trading, remain intact, determining the bull market pattern of gold. The issue of the Fed's independence still has room to ferment in the long run, which will push up the gold price when it resonates with other assets. In the fourth quarter, gold is expected to enter an oscillation phase [4]. - The silver price increase is basically in place. In the fourth quarter, the London silver is expected to trade in the range of $40 - 50 per ounce, and the main contract of Shanghai silver in the range of 9000 - 12000 yuan per kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Third - quarter Gold Market Review - After the gold price rose to a maximum of $3500 per ounce due to tariffs in the first half of the year, it entered a range - bound oscillation. From late April to late August, London gold oscillated horizontally in the range of $3100 - 3500 per ounce. A new upward trend started at the end of August. The weak non - farm employment reports from August to September strengthened the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts, driving capital into gold. In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, entering the second half of the rate - cut cycle. Trump's intervention in the Fed also contributed to the rise in gold prices. In the third quarter, the gold price rose by 16%, with a 11% increase in September alone [13][16]. 3.2 Standing at the Historical High and Looking Ahead 3.2.1 The US Economy Is in a State of Decline but Not in Recession, and Stagflation Needs Further Verification - The US economic growth has gradually slowed down in the first three quarters. Although consumption has some resilience, the economic endogenous expansion momentum is weakening. After the equal - tariff policy was implemented in August, its impact on the real economy remains to be seen. The labor market has weakened significantly in the third quarter, and inflation has stopped falling and rebounded. The potential risk of stagflation has not been ruled out and requires hard data verification [22]. 3.2.2 The Sharp Drop in Employment Data Strengthens the Expectation of Rate Cuts - In the third quarter, the US labor market reached a turning point. The non - farm employment data was significantly revised downwards, and the average non - farm employment increase in the past four months was only 26,000. The employment market has no supply - demand gap, and the unemployment rate may rise further. Most service industries and the manufacturing industry are reducing employment. The market's trust in the data quality of the US Department of Labor is also declining [34]. 3.2.3 Inflation Rebounds and Faces Upward Risks - Since the second half of 2024, US inflation has stopped falling and rebounded. In the third quarter of 2025, inflation rebounded again. Although the impact of tariffs has not fully manifested, core inflation still has upward space. In August, the core PCE increased to 2.9% year - on - year [45]. 3.3 The Fed's Independence Is Disturbed, and There Are Concerns about Fiscal Deficit Monetization 3.3.1 The Fed Resumes Rate Cuts, and Its Independence Is Worrisome - In the third quarter, after the significant decline in non - farm employment data, the Fed turned dovish and cut interest rates in September. The market expects the Fed to cut rates twice more in the fourth quarter. The internal division between hawks and doves in the Fed has intensified. Trump's interference in the Fed's personnel has undermined the Fed's independence, which may drive up the gold price in the long run [52][55]. 3.3.2 The US Fiscal Deficit Continues to Expand, and the Logic of Gold as a Credit Hedge Remains - In the 2025 fiscal year, the US fiscal deficit has continued to grow, reaching $1.8 trillion as of August, and the deficit - to - GDP ratio has expanded to - 6.6%. The Trump administration aims to maintain economic growth, which requires continued fiscal expansion and rate cuts. The US government debt problem is difficult to solve quickly, and the combination of high inflation and low interest rates will lead to a decline in the US dollar's credit, making the logic of going long on gold firm [60][65]. 3.3.3 Overseas Markets Increased Their Allocation of Gold in the Third Quarter - In the process of the continuous rise in the gold price, there has been a rotation in the allocation of gold between overseas and Chinese markets. In the third quarter, due to the weakening of the US employment market, the strengthening of rate - cut expectations, and the outbreak of the Fed's independence issue, overseas markets increased their long - position sentiment towards gold. The North American gold ETF holdings increased significantly, while the domestic market showed less enthusiasm for gold [69][70]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - For the fourth quarter, the London gold is expected to trade in the range of $3400 - 4000 per ounce, and the main contract of Shanghai gold in the range of 800 - 900 yuan per gram. The domestic gold is expected to remain at a discount to overseas gold. The London silver is expected to trade in the range of $40 - 50 per ounce, and the main contract of Shanghai silver in the range of 9000 - 12000 yuan per kilogram [77].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US dollar, highlighting the divergence between a weakening dollar and rising US Treasury yields, suggesting caution in interpreting these signals as indicative of a broader trend towards de-dollarization [2]. Group 1: Conceptual Clarification - Two key concepts are defined: de-dollarization transactions, which involve selling dollar assets and reflect a contraction of US asset exposure, and weak dollar transactions, which do not require reducing dollar asset exposure but rather increasing short positions on the dollar [3]. Group 2: Background Context - Background 1: Since the strong dollar cycle began in 2014-2015, overseas institutions have maintained dollar exposure to benefit from both US Treasury yield spreads and dollar appreciation. By 2024-2025, major global pension funds have reduced their dollar hedging ratios to historical lows, indicating a significant dollar exposure [4]. - Background 2: There is a positive correlation between the dollar hedging ratios of pension funds and exchange rate volatility; higher volatility leads to stronger hedging demand [4]. Group 3: Current Analysis - Following the implementation of equal tariffs on April 3, the volatility of the dollar exchange rate has increased significantly. For institutions with large dollar exposures, there are two strategies: de-dollarization transactions or weak dollar transactions. The article leans towards weak dollar transactions as the primary reality, noting no significant outflows from US equities or bonds and a rise in speculative short positions on the dollar [5]. Group 4: Future Predictions - To predict the future of the dollar, two questions are posed: whether the short positions on the dollar have been fully covered and the structure of the holders of these short positions. Current data suggests that while some institutions have raised their hedging ratios, the momentum for covering short positions may have peaked, indicating a potential end to rapid dollar depreciation [9][10]. - The concentration of dollar short positions is at a historical low, suggesting a fragile trading structure. If the US economy remains stable and tech stocks perform well, there may be a risk of a rebound in the dollar as volatility decreases [10]. - Overall, the macro environment is characterized as "internal stability with external changes," with the narrative of de-dollarization being misinterpreted. The article concludes that the weakening of the dollar is nearing its end, with potential for a period of volatility or even a rebound [11].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley indicates that as "de-dollarization transactions" stagnate, a "zero-sum game" emerges between gold and Bitcoin [1][4] - Since April 22, gold prices have dropped nearly 8% from a peak of $3,500, while Bitcoin prices have increased by 18% during the same period [1][3] - The report highlights a shift in fund flows, with gold ETFs experiencing outflows and Bitcoin and cryptocurrency ETFs attracting inflows over the past three weeks [3][7] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the "zero-sum game" between gold and Bitcoin will continue for the remainder of the year, with specific catalysts for cryptocurrencies expected to create more upward potential for Bitcoin in the second half [3][4] - Notable catalysts for Bitcoin include increased holdings by companies like MicroStrategy and legislative changes in New Hampshire allowing state treasury investments in Bitcoin [3][4] - Futures data shows a continued decline in gold futures positions, while Bitcoin futures have seen a significant increase [10]