当前黄金价格突破 4,000 美元大关，您认为这一轮黄金牛市的核心驱动因素有 哪些？ 本轮黄金牛市有三大核心驱动因素。首先是降息交易。8 月末和 9 月初，美联 储降息预期已经非常强烈，随后公布的 8 月非农就业数据和 CPI 数据验证了劳 动力市场走弱、通胀温和，从而强化了降息预期。这一逻辑在当前依然强劲， 9 月的美国 ADP 就业数据继续恶化，市场普遍预期年内大概率再次降息 50 个 基点左右。尽管明年（2026 年）的降息路径存在不确定性，但如果就业数据 没有明显改善，降息交易可能会进一步推动金价上涨。 第二个核心逻辑是去美 元化交易，即美元信用裂痕定价黄金的储备价值。特朗普挑战美联储独立性， 加速了去美元化进程。今年 8 月底至 9 月初，特朗普宣布解雇美联储理事库克， 这严重挑战了美联储的独立性。目前库克一案被最高法院暂时搁置，将在明年 1 月份落地。如果库克被解雇，黄金可能会继续大涨；如果库克留任，则金价 上涨斜率可能放缓。然而，美联储独立性的担忧仍然存在，这种担忧将继续推 动黄金价格上涨。 第三个逻辑是技术面的积极信号。今年 8 月底至 9 月初，金 价重回 3,500 美元每盎司以上，这是一 ...

截至9月30日收盘，全球大宗商品期货市场三季度交易正式落幕。 今年前三季度，全球大宗商品市场呈现出明显的分化态势，代表走势的CRB价格指数最新收报300.6 点，累计涨幅达1.31%。其中，贵金属期货集体大幅上扬，美国铂金期货主力连续合约累计涨幅最大， 达到77.45%，显著领涨其他商品期货；部分软饮料期货品种主力连续合约则跌幅显著。 展望四季度，业内人士表示，美联储降息周期开启将使大宗商品的宏观环境趋于稳定，但受品种基本面 差异影响，大宗商品走势分化的格局或持续。 全球主要大宗商品期货走势分化 今年前三季度，全球主要大宗商品期货走势分化。文华财经数据显示，截至9月30日，代表全球大宗商 品价格走势的CRB价格指数收盘报300.6点，前三季度累计上涨1.31%。 分品种来看，在统计的32个全球主要大宗商品期货中，前三季度，12个品种累计涨幅实现正收益，比例 为37.5%。 其中，贵金属家族期货表现亮眼，美国铂金期货主力连续合约累计涨幅最大，达到77.45%，显著领涨 其他商品期货；COMEX白银期货、COMEX黄金期货、美国钯金期货主力连续合约涨幅依次位于第二 名至第四名，累计涨幅分别为60.12%、47.3 ...

季度报告-黄金/白银 山外有山，黄金先抑后扬 | | 白银：震荡 | | --- | --- | | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 报告日期： | 黄金：震荡 2025 年 9 月 30 日 | [★Ta降bl息e_预Su期mm强a化ry]推动金价迭创新高 三季度美国就业市场走弱后，市场对美联储降息预期不断强化， 特朗普的干预引发美联储独立性担忧，三季度金价上涨 16%， 伦敦金上涨至 3860 美元/盎司刷新历史高点。 ★站在历史高点眺望远方 贵 金 属 年初至今美国经济增速逐渐降温但尚未步入衰退，关税对进出 口的扰动告一段落，消费有一定韧性但动能放缓，就业市场的 拐点已经出现，全面对等关税落地后，关税将推动通胀继续上 行，美国经济的滞胀风险犹存，但还需经济数据验证。 美联储 9 月再度降息开启降息周期下半场，四季度预计仍有两 次降息，官方对经济软着陆的预期增加。特朗普对美联储的口 诛笔伐以及人事任免的干预损害美联储货币政策的独立性。2025 财年至今美国财政赤字延续扩张态势，财政问题无法快速解决， 特朗普政府的政策倾向于维持高通胀和经济增长，但人为压低 利率对美元信用构成侵蚀，也决定了黄金等资产价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US dollar, highlighting the divergence between a weakening dollar and rising US Treasury yields, suggesting caution in interpreting these signals as indicative of a broader trend towards de-dollarization [2]. Group 1: Conceptual Clarification - Two key concepts are defined: de-dollarization transactions, which involve selling dollar assets and reflect a contraction of US asset exposure, and weak dollar transactions, which do not require reducing dollar asset exposure but rather increasing short positions on the dollar [3]. Group 2: Background Context - Background 1: Since the strong dollar cycle began in 2014-2015, overseas institutions have maintained dollar exposure to benefit from both US Treasury yield spreads and dollar appreciation. By 2024-2025, major global pension funds have reduced their dollar hedging ratios to historical lows, indicating a significant dollar exposure [4]. - Background 2: There is a positive correlation between the dollar hedging ratios of pension funds and exchange rate volatility; higher volatility leads to stronger hedging demand [4]. Group 3: Current Analysis - Following the implementation of equal tariffs on April 3, the volatility of the dollar exchange rate has increased significantly. For institutions with large dollar exposures, there are two strategies: de-dollarization transactions or weak dollar transactions. The article leans towards weak dollar transactions as the primary reality, noting no significant outflows from US equities or bonds and a rise in speculative short positions on the dollar [5]. Group 4: Future Predictions - To predict the future of the dollar, two questions are posed: whether the short positions on the dollar have been fully covered and the structure of the holders of these short positions. Current data suggests that while some institutions have raised their hedging ratios, the momentum for covering short positions may have peaked, indicating a potential end to rapid dollar depreciation [9][10]. - The concentration of dollar short positions is at a historical low, suggesting a fragile trading structure. If the US economy remains stable and tech stocks perform well, there may be a risk of a rebound in the dollar as volatility decreases [10]. - Overall, the macro environment is characterized as "internal stability with external changes," with the narrative of de-dollarization being misinterpreted. The article concludes that the weakening of the dollar is nearing its end, with potential for a period of volatility or even a rebound [11].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley indicates that as "de-dollarization transactions" stagnate, a "zero-sum game" emerges between gold and Bitcoin [1][4] - Since April 22, gold prices have dropped nearly 8% from a peak of $3,500, while Bitcoin prices have increased by 18% during the same period [1][3] - The report highlights a shift in fund flows, with gold ETFs experiencing outflows and Bitcoin and cryptocurrency ETFs attracting inflows over the past three weeks [3][7] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the "zero-sum game" between gold and Bitcoin will continue for the remainder of the year, with specific catalysts for cryptocurrencies expected to create more upward potential for Bitcoin in the second half [3][4] - Notable catalysts for Bitcoin include increased holdings by companies like MicroStrategy and legislative changes in New Hampshire allowing state treasury investments in Bitcoin [3][4] - Futures data shows a continued decline in gold futures positions, while Bitcoin futures have seen a significant increase [10]