Core Viewpoint - Experts believe that the economy will achieve stable operation throughout the year, with an expected investment total of around 15 trillion yuan and consumption total between 13 trillion to 14 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter [1] Investment and Consumption - There may be incremental policies introduced in areas such as stabilizing investment, consumption, and foreign trade, along with strengthening the execution of existing policies [1] - A combination of fiscal, monetary, and industry policies is expected to be implemented [1] Support Policies - Continuous support policies for large-scale consumption will be promoted in the fourth quarter, with potential for further enhancements [1] - The scope of subsidies for the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement program will be expanded, and the application process will be simplified [1] - Consumption in home appliances and home decoration will be linked, with ongoing promotion of old community renovations [1] New Consumption Highlights - Policies may provide support in areas such as health, medical care, cultural tourism, and digital sectors, potentially including the issuance of consumption vouchers [1] - Active promotion of holiday economy and nighttime economy is anticipated [1]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Investment - The fourth quarter is crucial for economic work and planning for the next year, with macro policies being implemented effectively [1] - An estimated investment of around 15 trillion yuan and consumption of 13 to 14 trillion yuan is needed in the fourth quarter [1] - New policy tools are expected to stimulate investment, with a focus on major project construction and financial support [4][5] Group 2: Consumer Support Policies - A new round of consumer support policies is anticipated, including an additional 690 billion yuan in special bonds for consumption upgrades [2] - The "old for new" subsidy program has seen 330 million participants, driving sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2] - Policies may also support sectors like health, tourism, and digital services, with potential issuance of consumption vouchers [2] Group 3: Retail and Consumption Growth - Factors such as childcare subsidies and a recovering stock market are expected to support retail sales growth, with total retail sales projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan [3] - The contribution of consumption to GDP is expected to surpass 50% [3] Group 4: Foreign Trade Policies - Significant foreign trade policies are set to be released in the fourth quarter, with a focus on high-level opening up [6] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is on track for its official operation by December 2025, with plans to ease restrictions on foreign investment in tourism [7] - The 138th Canton Fair will introduce new measures to support foreign trade enterprises [7] Group 5: Financial and Investment Support - Local governments are expected to expedite the use of remaining special bond funds, with an estimated 680 billion yuan available [5] - New policies to encourage private investment in emerging sectors are anticipated [5] - Financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan will be used to support project capital [4]

四季度是全年经济工作冲刺的收官季，也是谋划下一年发展的关键期。近期，从中央到地方，一揽子宏 观政策持续落地，效能不断显现。 受访专家认为，全年经济实现平稳运行，预计四季度需要15万亿元左右的投资总量和13万亿元至14万亿 元的消费总量。在稳投资、稳消费、稳外贸等领域或将推出增量政策，并强化现有政策的执行，结合财 政、货币、行业政策打出组合拳。 全力冲刺四季度经济哪些增量政策值得期待？ ◎记者白丽斐李苑 重大项目建设离不开充足的资金保障。国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、委新闻发言人李超日前表 示，新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲预计，新型政策性金融工具主要面向将要开工或已开工未完工的项目，用作 项目资本金，以尽快实现实物工作量的增长。按照过往经验来看，政策性金融工具将对四季度基建投资 起到一定撬动作用。 大宗消费支持政策或将再加码 为推动消费结构转型升级，一揽子提振消费举措持续落地。 近日，国家发展改革委会同财政部，向地方下达了今年第四批690亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧 换新资金，至此全年3000亿元中央资金已全部下达。今年前8个月，全国共有3.3亿 ...