2026 年春节社服行业数据点评 20260223 具体子行业在 2026 年春节期间有哪些亮点？ 在交通出行方面，与之密切相关的酒店业在 2025 年双位数下滑的低基数上实 现显著正增长。限时饮品方面，如茶百道和沪上阿姨分别实现双位数和高个位 数的单店或同店增长。此外，海南离岛免税销售额同比增长 19%，虽然较 1 月 日本通过短期直接刺激与中长期制度优化相结合的综合政策路径提升服 务消费发展，如 Go To Campaign 和完善休假制度，为中国当前服务 消费政策提供了参考借鉴意义。 餐饮行业重点推荐瑞幸、古茗、蜜雪和百胜。海底捞创始人回归，推动 红石榴计划。九毛九旗下太二餐厅调改效果逐渐显现。建议关注陕西旅 游，主要项目包括长恨歌演艺和华山索道。 份 40%的增速有所放缓，但仍表现良好。 你们对社服行业未来发展的总体观点是什么？ 摘要 春节期间社服行业复苏明显，交通出行提速，铁路增速达 10.7%，民航 增长 8%，酒店业在低基数上实现显著增长，海南离岛免税销售额同比 增长 19%，表明消费环境企稳，休闲需求强劲。 看好社服行业配置价值，政策刺激效果尚未完全显现，但需求已呈现企 稳回升迹象，政策支持服 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the food and beverage sector is expected to stabilize and improve in 2023, driven by the timing of the Spring Festival and accelerated sales performance in January [1] - The report suggests that investors should consider accumulating quality leading companies in the food and beverage sector during dips [1] - There is optimism regarding the recovery of dining scenarios due to policies promoting service consumption by 2026, with some leading companies slightly raising prices, indicating improved market conditions and reduced competition [1] Group 2 - Current inventory levels for food supply and seasoning companies are healthy, with proactive stocking and strong channel confidence, contributing to a successful start in January [1] - The report continues to recommend leading companies in the dining supply chain and seasoning sectors, particularly those with strong dividend yields and positive operational trends [1] - Attention is also drawn to flexible investment targets within the sector [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The service consumption sector is experiencing growth through increased holidays and policy openings, despite the absence of large subsidies like those in the home appliance and automotive sectors. Future subsidies could further boost industry development, particularly in cultural tourism and travel, including segments like scenic spots, hotels, travel agencies, dining, sports, and duty-free markets in Hainan [1][2][3]. Key Companies and Their Insights 1. **Songcheng Performance**: Traditional project performances have stabilized, new projects are ramping up, and the company has ample cash flow, which may lead to increased dividend rates [5]. 2. **Huangshan Tourism**: New cable car and hotel openings are expected to drive growth, alongside reduced losses from Huashan cuisine and potential expansion projects [5]. 3. **China Youth Travel Service (CYTS)**: Benefits from the restoration of Gubei Water Town and Wuzhen scenic area, along with new project expansions [5]. 4. **Tianfu Culture and Tourism**: Anticipated improvements from ice and snow economy projects, acquisitions, and asset injections from the controlling shareholder [5]. 5. **Emei Mountain Tourism**: Although the cable car launch is delayed until 2027, asset integration from Leshan Giant Buddha and the opening of Leshan Airport are expected to provide growth [5]. 6. **Guilin Tourism**: Focus on the integration of Li River cruise operations and potential capital injection from the controlling shareholder [5]. 7. **ST Zhangjiajie**: Significant potential for regional asset integration, currently under observation [5]. 8. **Yunnan Tourism**: Engaging in AI and cultural tourism asset integration, though with less direct correlation to scenic spots [5]. Market Trends and Opportunities - The service consumption sector is seeing notable changes in 2026, including an increase of 5 days in holiday adjustments, with spring and autumn holidays now covering about one-third of the Chinese population. The gradual relaxation of inbound tourism policies is also providing new growth points [2]. - The sports sector is benefiting from major events like the Winter Olympics and the World Cup, with increased investments from various provinces. Key beneficiaries include China Sports Industry, Lisheng Sports, and Jiaoyun Co., among others [3][20]. Additional Noteworthy Points - **Jinjiang Hotel Group**: Expected demand increase in 2026, with a projected decline in supply. Focus on improving internal operational efficiency and reducing losses from overseas direct stores, potentially through mergers and stock incentives [13]. - **Sima Media**: After acquisition, it remains focused on media business and may inject assets related to Sichuan's western region and hotel assets [11]. - **Nanjing Business Travel**: Originally a retail company, now integrating the Confucius Temple boat project with potential for future scenic and cultural tourism asset injections [12]. - **Sports Sector**: Companies like Zhujiang Co., Gongchuang Turf, and Xue Ren Group are involved in the sports field and have clean chip structures, indicating significant upside potential with marginal changes [20]. Conclusion The service consumption sector is poised for growth driven by policy support and market recovery, with various companies positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities. The focus on cultural tourism, sports events, and strategic asset integrations will be critical for sustained development in the coming years.

Core Viewpoint - Domestic cotton prices are supported by a warm macro atmosphere and quick spot sales, while international cotton prices are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and a decline in U.S. cotton export contracts, leading to a continued weak oscillation pattern [1][2]. Price Review - Domestic cotton supply is abundant, with spot sales increasing, resulting in a slight rise in cotton prices. The main contract price for Zhengzhou cotton futures averaged 14,726 CNY/ton, up 130 CNY/ton (0.9%) from the previous week. The national cotton price B index averaged 15,947 CNY/ton, up 121 CNY/ton (0.8%) [2]. - Internationally, geopolitical tensions have led to a decline in market sentiment, with the main contract price for New York cotton futures averaging 63.44 cents/pound, down 0.64 cents/pound (1.0%) from the previous week. The international cotton index (M) averaged 72.36 cents/pound, with an import cost of 12,394 CNY/ton, down 26 CNY/ton (0.2%) [2]. - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has widened to 3,553 CNY/ton, an increase of 147 CNY/ton from the previous week [2]. Textile Market - Yarn prices continue to rise, with domestic yarn prices stronger than imported yarn. The average price for domestic C32S yarn is 21,376 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton (0.3%), while the average price for imported C32S yarn is 20,980 CNY/ton, up 48 CNY/ton (0.2%) [3]. - Polyester staple fiber prices increased by 195 CNY/ton to 6,696 CNY/ton [3]. Market Outlook - The macro market shows weak expectations for short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with ongoing risks of a U.S. government shutdown and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions affecting market sentiment. The Fed has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% since January, reducing expectations for immediate rate cuts [4]. - Domestic policies aimed at boosting service consumption and improving industrial profits are expected to support economic expectations. The State Council has issued a plan to stimulate service consumption, and industrial profits have shown positive growth for the first time in four years [4]. - The cotton market is experiencing tightening international supply and resilient consumption demand. Brazilian cotton exports have significantly slowed, and Australian cotton production is expected to decline due to irrigation water shortages. U.S. cotton contract signings have dropped by 51% week-on-week [5]. - Domestic cotton sales are stable, with a sales rate of 64.5%, up 22.9 percentage points year-on-year. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, market activity is expected to slow down, with companies focusing on recovering payments and clearing inventory [5][6]. Summary - The current cotton market is characterized by domestic fundamentals supporting prices while international macro factors exert pressure. Despite domestic sales and yarn price support, market drivers are expected to weaken as production winds down ahead of the Spring Festival. Short-term cotton prices are anticipated to oscillate within a range, with attention needed on post-holiday textile enterprise resumption, global trade policies, and U.S. planting intentions [6].

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Industry**: Consumer Sector, specifically focusing on the restaurant and jewelry industries - **Companies Discussed**: Haidilao (restaurant), Laopuhuang (jewelry), and Proya (cosmetics) Key Points and Arguments Haidilao 1. **Performance Recovery**: Haidilao's performance is showing signs of stabilization, with a notable recovery in customer turnover rates in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, maintaining an average customer spend of around 100 RMB [2][6] 2. **Management Changes**: The return of Zhang Yong is expected to positively influence the company's operations, although specific growth targets have not been set. The potential for new store openings is contingent on stabilizing turnover rates [3][4] 3. **Brand Expansion**: Haidilao is exploring multi-brand strategies, with new concepts like barbecue and sushi being developed, which could enhance its market presence [4][5] 4. **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the consumer sector is at a low point, particularly in the Hong Kong market, but there is potential for a rebound due to low expectations and valuations [1][6] 5. **Future Outlook**: For 2026, the revenue forecast is cautiously optimistic, with estimates suggesting a recovery in performance, potentially reaching 4.5 to 4.7 billion RMB [6][7] Laopuhuang 1. **Sales Momentum**: Laopuhuang is experiencing a surge in customer interest, particularly during the Valentine's Day season, with expectations of exceeding previous sales records due to rising gold prices and promotional activities [9][10] 2. **Brand Strength**: The brand's positioning and market presence have strengthened, with significant customer engagement observed during promotional events, indicating a robust demand outlook [11][12] 3. **Pricing Strategy**: There is anticipation of price increases following the Valentine's Day period, which could further enhance sales performance [10][11] 4. **Market Positioning**: Laopuhuang's strategy includes optimizing store locations and expanding its product offerings, which is expected to drive growth in the coming years [12][13] Proya 1. **Valuation and Growth Potential**: Proya is currently undervalued, with a projected earnings multiple of around 15 times for 2026, making it an attractive investment opportunity [19][20] 2. **Management Changes**: Recent leadership changes are expected to bring new strategies and innovations, particularly in product development and market positioning [19][20] 3. **Product Innovation**: The introduction of new product lines, particularly in the skincare segment, is anticipated to capture market share and drive sales growth [20][21] 4. **Acquisition Strategy**: Proya is actively pursuing acquisition opportunities, particularly in the cosmetics sector, to enhance its market presence both domestically and internationally [22][23] Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Sentiment**: The overall consumer sentiment remains cautious, but there are signs of potential recovery in spending, particularly in the restaurant and jewelry sectors [1][6] - **Market Dynamics**: The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies like Haidilao and Laopuhuang adapting their strategies to meet changing consumer preferences and market conditions [4][10] - **Future Monitoring**: Continuous monitoring of market trends and consumer behavior will be essential for assessing the performance of these companies in the upcoming quarters [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the social services industry, indicating an expectation of performance that is stronger than the market benchmark by over 5% [4][12]. Core Insights - The tourism industry is expected to return to stable growth, supported by favorable policies anticipated in 2026, with both sentiment and fundamentals improving [3]. - The report highlights a recovery in demand for hotels and scenic spots, with a focus on structured opportunities in the market [2][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of segment differentiation, as various sub-sectors within the industry are expected to perform differently based on their fundamentals and seasonal dynamics [7]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in sub-sectors benefiting from tourism, as well as those showing signs of recovery and new consumer trends. Recommended stocks include China Duty Free Group (601888, Buy), among others [3]. Market Performance - The report notes that the overall market, represented by the CSI 300 index, increased by 1.9%, while the consumer services sector saw a rise of 1.8% during the week of December 22-26 [7]. Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free shopping in Hainan has shown remarkable growth, with sales reaching 1.1 billion yuan during the week of December 18-24, marking a year-on-year increase of 54.9% [7]. Scenic Spots and Ice-Snow Tourism - The report anticipates a stable growth return for scenic spots, particularly those with regional and thematic attractions, as evidenced by increased bookings for ice-snow tourism [7]. Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) - The report maintains a positive outlook on OTAs, predicting continued growth driven by the recovery of outbound travel and the aging population's travel needs [7]. Hotel Sector - The hotel sector is showing signs of recovery, with data indicating a slight increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR) in October, suggesting that hotel profitability is at a bottoming phase [7]. New Consumption Trends - The report identifies opportunities in new consumption, particularly in affordable dining options and brands that cater to changing consumer preferences [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the potential for short-term expansion and long-term undervaluation in the restaurant industry, highlighting the need to focus on operational improvements and high valuation during expansion periods [1] - Key recommended stocks include Yum China (09987) for its operational capabilities, Little Garden (00999) for its strong team and supply chain during store expansion, Haidilao (06862) for its execution during reform, and Dashihua (01405) for its high potential in store expansion [1] - The service consumption policy is expected to benefit the restaurant sector significantly, with specific measures introduced to boost service consumption, making restaurants a core focus of these initiatives [1] Group 2 - The restaurant sector is showing a differentiated performance, with its revenue share in the retail sector increasing and demonstrating higher elasticity compared to the overall retail sector [2] - In 2024, restaurant revenue is projected to account for 12% of total retail sales, with growth rates of 20% and 5% for 2023 and 2024 respectively, outpacing the overall retail growth rates of 7% and 4% [2] Group 3 - The Japanese restaurant industry is experiencing high valuation premiums, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements alongside multi-format integration [3] - The external dining industry in Japan has faced a decline since its peak in 1997, with a recovery only starting in 2006, and the restaurant sector's market capitalization in consumer services has increased by 9 percentage points since 2014 [3] - Key changes in the Japanese restaurant sector during downturns include balancing extreme cost-effectiveness with consumer experience, achieving high store efficiency through supply chain optimization, and the emergence of restaurant giants through multi-category integration [3]

Summary of Hotel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The hotel industry is experiencing significant changes due to evolving service consumption policies, which are expected to enhance tourism demand in the second quarter of 2026, particularly with the potential nationwide promotion of spring break [1][2] - The overall supply growth in the hotel industry is not expected to slow down, with a focus on small properties while large properties see a deceleration in growth [1][5] Key Insights and Arguments - The hotel sector is anticipated to improve sequentially in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, driven by stable demand and a decreasing base effect, with companies like Huazhu showing signs of recovery [1][3][4] - Recent fluctuations in the hotel sector are attributed to changes in policy expectations, particularly regarding service consumption, which has led to capital movement within the sector [2] - The introduction of hotel REITs policies is expected to be a significant breakthrough, likely to be launched around February 2026, benefiting the high-end hotel segment and promoting marketization and resource consolidation [3][9][10] Company-Specific Developments - Junting Hotel Group, following the entry of Hubei State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, is expected to enhance performance through the injection of light-asset, high-profit businesses like hotel management, rather than heavy assets [1][6][11] - The company has resumed normal profitability with its direct-operated stores and aims to leverage resources from Hubei State-owned Assets for significant performance improvement over the next two years [7][11] - Junting has partnered with Select International and Hilton to launch new products, Kaiyi and Kaifu, which have lower renovation costs and shorter payback periods compared to competitors [8] Additional Important Points - The supply growth in the hotel industry is primarily concentrated in small properties (15-30 rooms and 30-69 rooms), while larger properties (70-149 rooms) have seen a slowdown since June 2025 [5] - Junting's differentiated franchise strategy includes favorable terms for franchisees, such as a take rate below 8% for stores with low overall revenue, which helps attract more inbound traffic [8] - The new REITs policy is expected to facilitate the integration of high-end hotel properties, allowing them to utilize social leverage for resource consolidation, which is not applicable to mid- and low-end hotels [10]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower on November 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index rebounding into positive territory, while the Shenzhen Component Index found strong support at 13,000 points [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index had turned positive [1] Sector Performance - The Hainan Free Trade Zone, tourism, forestry, and power grid equipment sectors saw significant gains, while gaming, communication equipment, consumer electronics, and quantum technology sectors experienced declines [1] - The Hainan sector has been strong recently, with a notable increase of over 6% on the day, reaching a new high in over seven years [3] Notable Stocks - Haima Automobile hit the daily limit up for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a ten-year high [3] - Haixia Co. also quickly reached its daily limit up, achieving a historical high [3] - Caesar Travel, Yingxin Development, Dongbai Group, and Palm Holdings saw their stock prices surge, with several hitting the daily limit up [7] Policy Impact - The implementation of the Hainan duty-free shopping policy on November 1 showed immediate effects, with a 6.1% increase in sales on the first day compared to the previous day [5] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to fully close by December 18, 2025, expanding the range of zero-tariff goods significantly, which is expected to enhance policy benefits [5] Future Outlook - CITIC Securities believes the closure will significantly impact trade and help Hainan accelerate its development as an international tourism consumption center, benefiting various stakeholders in the tourism industry [6] - The announcement of holiday arrangements for 2026 has led to a surge in travel bookings, indicating strong consumer interest in travel during the upcoming holiday periods [9]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index turning positive, while the Shenzhen Component Index found strong support at 13,000 points [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3962.04, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13155.6, down 0.15% [2] Sector Performance - Hainan Free Trade Zone and tourism sectors saw significant gains, with Hainan stocks rising over 6%, reaching a 7-year high [3] - Game, communication equipment, consumer electronics, and quantum technology sectors experienced declines [1] Hainan Free Trade Zone Developments - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to fully close its borders by December 18, 2025, expanding the list of zero-tariff goods from 1,900 to 6,637 items, indicating a significant policy benefit [5] - The implementation of the new duty-free shopping policy on November 1 led to a 6.1% increase in sales on the first day, with total shopping amounting to 78.549 million yuan [3][5] Tourism Sector Insights - The tourism sector continues to strengthen, with stocks like Caesar Travel and Yingxin Development hitting their daily limits [7] - The announcement of the 2026 holiday schedule led to a surge in travel inquiries, with a 200% increase in consultations for European travel [9] Investment Opportunities - Central enterprises are increasingly collaborating with the Hainan provincial government, covering various sectors and indicating strong investment potential in the region [5] - The trade aspect of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to accelerate the development of an international tourism consumption center, benefiting related businesses [6]