Market Overview - A-shares opened lower on November 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index rebounding into positive territory, while the Shenzhen Component Index found strong support at 13,000 points [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index had turned positive [1] Sector Performance - The Hainan Free Trade Zone, tourism, forestry, and power grid equipment sectors saw significant gains, while gaming, communication equipment, consumer electronics, and quantum technology sectors experienced declines [1] - The Hainan sector has been strong recently, with a notable increase of over 6% on the day, reaching a new high in over seven years [3] Notable Stocks - Haima Automobile hit the daily limit up for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a ten-year high [3] - Haixia Co. also quickly reached its daily limit up, achieving a historical high [3] - Caesar Travel, Yingxin Development, Dongbai Group, and Palm Holdings saw their stock prices surge, with several hitting the daily limit up [7] Policy Impact - The implementation of the Hainan duty-free shopping policy on November 1 showed immediate effects, with a 6.1% increase in sales on the first day compared to the previous day [5] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to fully close by December 18, 2025, expanding the range of zero-tariff goods significantly, which is expected to enhance policy benefits [5] Future Outlook - CITIC Securities believes the closure will significantly impact trade and help Hainan accelerate its development as an international tourism consumption center, benefiting various stakeholders in the tourism industry [6] - The announcement of holiday arrangements for 2026 has led to a surge in travel bookings, indicating strong consumer interest in travel during the upcoming holiday periods [9]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index turning positive, while the Shenzhen Component Index found strong support at 13,000 points [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3962.04, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13155.6, down 0.15% [2] Sector Performance - Hainan Free Trade Zone and tourism sectors saw significant gains, with Hainan stocks rising over 6%, reaching a 7-year high [3] - Game, communication equipment, consumer electronics, and quantum technology sectors experienced declines [1] Hainan Free Trade Zone Developments - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to fully close its borders by December 18, 2025, expanding the list of zero-tariff goods from 1,900 to 6,637 items, indicating a significant policy benefit [5] - The implementation of the new duty-free shopping policy on November 1 led to a 6.1% increase in sales on the first day, with total shopping amounting to 78.549 million yuan [3][5] Tourism Sector Insights - The tourism sector continues to strengthen, with stocks like Caesar Travel and Yingxin Development hitting their daily limits [7] - The announcement of the 2026 holiday schedule led to a surge in travel inquiries, with a 200% increase in consultations for European travel [9] Investment Opportunities - Central enterprises are increasingly collaborating with the Hainan provincial government, covering various sectors and indicating strong investment potential in the region [5] - The trade aspect of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to accelerate the development of an international tourism consumption center, benefiting related businesses [6]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Investment - The fourth quarter is crucial for economic work and planning for the next year, with macro policies being implemented effectively [1] - An estimated investment of around 15 trillion yuan and consumption of 13 to 14 trillion yuan is needed in the fourth quarter [1] - New policy tools are expected to stimulate investment, with a focus on major project construction and financial support [4][5] Group 2: Consumer Support Policies - A new round of consumer support policies is anticipated, including an additional 690 billion yuan in special bonds for consumption upgrades [2] - The "old for new" subsidy program has seen 330 million participants, driving sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2] - Policies may also support sectors like health, tourism, and digital services, with potential issuance of consumption vouchers [2] Group 3: Retail and Consumption Growth - Factors such as childcare subsidies and a recovering stock market are expected to support retail sales growth, with total retail sales projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan [3] - The contribution of consumption to GDP is expected to surpass 50% [3] Group 4: Foreign Trade Policies - Significant foreign trade policies are set to be released in the fourth quarter, with a focus on high-level opening up [6] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is on track for its official operation by December 2025, with plans to ease restrictions on foreign investment in tourism [7] - The 138th Canton Fair will introduce new measures to support foreign trade enterprises [7] Group 5: Financial and Investment Support - Local governments are expected to expedite the use of remaining special bond funds, with an estimated 680 billion yuan available [5] - New policies to encourage private investment in emerging sectors are anticipated [5] - Financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan will be used to support project capital [4]

Group 1 - Hong Kong Travel (00308) saw a rise of over 5%, currently up 5.17% at HKD 1.83, with a trading volume of HKD 219 million [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments released policies on September 16 to expand service consumption, suggesting the exploration of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools, and encouraging supply-side product optimization [1] - CICC anticipates good booking data for the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, expecting a positive performance in leisure travel demand [1] Group 2 - Guozheng International recently published a report highlighting the company's active involvement in the ice and snow economy, including the acquisition of a 75% stake in Jilin Songhua Lake International Resort Development Co., Ltd. and Beijing Wanbingxue Sports Co., Ltd. [1] - The related business is expected to be consolidated in November, which is projected to bring additional revenue and profit to the company [1] - The extended 8-day holiday period during National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival is anticipated to lead to rapid growth in the tourism market, thereby driving business growth for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock indices experienced a rebound today, with significant trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 24,029 billion yuan, an increase of 359 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The stock indices are expected to experience wide fluctuations in the short term, with the current implied volatility of options remaining within a normal range [1] Policy Measures - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments recently issued policies aimed at expanding service consumption, proposing 19 specific measures across five areas to stimulate consumer demand [1] - The development of service consumption is anticipated to create new jobs and drive resident consumption, forming a positive cycle between supply and demand [1] Economic Indicators - August data on credit and inflation showed weakness, with a slowdown in consumption growth and poor performance in the real sector's demand [1] - There is a strong expectation for the introduction of policies to stabilize demand, with key developments anticipated in October [1] Funding Environment - Non-bank deposits saw a significant increase in July and August, with high financing balances indicating that the stock market continues to attract incremental capital [1] - However, due to significant valuation increases in some stocks, there is a tendency for profit-taking, leading to short-term technical adjustment pressure on the stock indices [1] Investment Strategy - Given the mid to long-term upward trend of the stock indices, it is suggested to continue holding bull spreads or ratio spreads [1]

Economic Overview - In August, China's economy showed stability in production demand, employment, and prices, with new growth drivers being cultivated, indicating a steady and progressive development trend [1] - The service industry business activity index reached a year-high of 50.5%, while the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 8.1% and 9.3% year-on-year, respectively, significantly outpacing the average level of large-scale industries [1] Policy Impact - The "two new" policies have shown significant results, with retail sales growth for furniture, home appliances, and cultural office supplies exceeding 14% [1] - The implementation of anti-involution policies has led to a narrowing of the year-on-year decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), ending an eight-month downward trend, while the decline in industrial enterprise profits has also narrowed [1] Future Outlook - The current economic situation is characterized by a transition from old to new growth drivers and an improvement in quality and efficiency [1] - With the implementation of replacement subsidies and the focus on service consumption policies, along with rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, domestic demand is expected to continue improving [1] - Future policies will focus on structural issues to consolidate new growth drivers and stimulate effective demand, promoting a sustained economic recovery [1] Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on low-entry rotation opportunities in high-prosperity sectors, specifically in energy storage, new energy, and service consumption, as well as sectors benefiting from potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the HC2601 contract fluctuated weakly. The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued 19 measures in five aspects to expand service consumption on September 16. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.06%, inventory slightly decreased, and apparent demand significantly increased. Overall, the rebound of steel prices affects terminal demand, but the new round of policy benefits in the short term still support steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 axis, and the red column turns green. Operationally, go long on pullbacks, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,390 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2] - HC main contract open interest: 1,391,462 lots, up 523 lots [2] - HC contract top 20 net open interest: -126,409 lots, up 6,479 lots [2] - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 34 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 60,941 tons, unchanged [2] - HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 222 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - HC main contract basis: 60 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB fine ore: 792 yuan/wet ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi-first-class metallurgical coke: 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - 45-port iron ore inventory: 13,849.47 million tons, up 24.15 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 43.76 million tons, up 3.10 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 633.61 million tons, up 10.07 million tons [2] - Hebei billet inventory: 128.95 million tons, down 7.58 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.85%, up 3.47% [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.2%, up 4.43% [2] - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 325.14 million tons, up 10.90 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 83.06%, up 2.79% [2] - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil plant inventory: 80.88 million tons, up 0.90 million tons [2] - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 292.44 million tons, down 1.92 million tons [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 901 million tons, down 38 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.8154 million vehicles, up 0.2243 million vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 2.8566 million vehicles, up 0.2632 million vehicles [2] - Air conditioner production: 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [2] - Household refrigerator production: 9.4532 million units, up 0.7225 million units [2] - Household washing machine production: 10.1318 million units, up 1.3575 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 65.71 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a daily output of 2.1196 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%; produced 60.8 million tons of pig iron, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a daily output of 1.9614 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%; produced 68.73 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with a daily output of 2.2172 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [2] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's air conditioner production in August 2025 was 16.819 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; the cumulative production from January to August was 199.646 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [2] 3.7 Key Focus - Thursday's hot-rolled coil weekly output, in-plant inventory, and social inventory [2]

Group 1: Policy Expectations - Eight major policy expectations have been identified, covering areas such as monetary policy and consumption, with a focus on the new energy storage construction plan [1] - The upcoming meeting between China and the US in Spain will address issues including TikTok and potential tariffs on China and India [1][3] - The expectation for the resumption of government bond trading operations by the central bank has increased, as highlighted by recent articles from Securities Times and China Securities Journal [1][3] Group 2: Energy Storage - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Action Plan (2025-2027)", which is expected to meet its goals ahead of schedule [2] - The plan includes various application scenarios, including AIDC, and anticipates a national pricing policy for energy storage capacity [2] - There is an expectation of price increases in the upstream supply chain for energy storage, particularly for energy storage cell prices [2] Group 3: Industry Growth Plans - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released several industry growth action plans, including those for the electronic information manufacturing, automotive, and power equipment sectors for 2025-2026 [2] - The automotive plan has more detailed demand-driven policies and increased deployment for L3 autonomous driving compared to the 2023-2024 version [2] - The power equipment plan emphasizes a more detailed approach to main objectives and a shift in focus from demand to supply structure adjustments [2] Group 4: Other Policy Developments - Recent policies have been issued regarding public utilities, artificial intelligence, data elements, and the regulation of excessive competition [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission has solicited public opinions on the revised pricing and cost supervision methods for power transmission and distribution [4] - Various local governments, including Shanghai and Hangzhou, have released policies related to artificial intelligence [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View The subsequent stock index trend is expected to remain generally strong but with increased volatility. On one hand, under the optimistic sentiment, the current upward trend of the stock index is mainly driven by loose domestic and foreign liquidity. After the Fed's interest rate cut is implemented, the expectation of the interest rate cut path may cause short - term marginal fluctuations in liquidity. If the Fed slows down the interest rate cut rhythm due to strong US inflation and employment, overseas liquidity will tighten marginally, and the stock index may face a phased adjustment. If US inflation and employment are weak, the expectation of interest rate cuts will heat up, overseas liquidity will loosen marginally, further boosting the stock index. If one is strong and the other is weak, the stock index trend may be volatile under the repeated influence of interest rate cut expectations. On the other hand, the intensification of domestic service consumption policies and the existence of valuation repair space will provide strong support for the market, forming a bottom - support for A - shares, and the downside space is small. Therefore, if there is an adjustment, the amplitude will not be large [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Multiple Benefits and the Market Rally In August, the CSI 300 index increased by 3.54%. In August, the A - share market showed a certain upward trend. The closing price of the Shanghai Composite Index on August 30 was 5427, with a slight increase of 0.02% compared to the previous trading day, and a cumulative increase of 2.45% in August [11]. 3.2 September: Stability at Home, Changes Abroad - **3.2.1 September Fed Interest Rate Cut Almost Certain, Focus on Marginal Changes in Liquidity** The CME data shows that as of August, the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September is 87.5%. The PCE in July 2024 was 2.9%. The Fed's interest rate cut situation will have an impact on the A - share market through liquidity [12]. - **3.2.2 Domestic Policy Expectations Continue to Provide Bottom - Support** In August, the cumulative increase of the CSI 300 index was 20% lower than that of the Consumption 100 index. From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic catering revenue was 4.9%, and in June it was 3.8%. Domestic policies are expected to continue to support the A - share market [14]. - **3.2.3 There is Still a Large Space for Valuation Repair** The valuation of the CSI 300 index has a large repair space, with a historical percentile of 60 - 66%. From August 1 to 29, the PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 index increased from 13.11 to 14.12, an increase of 7.7%. Compared with historical high - points such as 45.2 in 2007, 19 in 2015, and 16.5 in 2021, there is still room for improvement. In August, the TTM of the A - share market also showed certain changes, with the TTM of the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 18.95%, the TTM of the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 4.41%, and the TTM of the ChiNext Index increasing by 15.25%. The DR007 central value continued to decline in August, which is conducive to market liquidity [18][21]. 3.3 Market Outlook In August, the trading sentiment was hot. The PCR (Put - Call Ratio) of some index futures was at a relatively high level, such as the PCR of IM and IH reaching 95%, and the MO PCR reaching 90% in August [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2510 fell 3.31%, and the far - month contracts fell between 2 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 8.7% week - on - week, and the spot indicators continued to fall, which is expected to drive down the futures prices. With shipping companies engaging in a "price war" and the global trade situation being uncertain due to potential tariff increases, and the weakening of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, coupled with the weak demand expectation for the container shipping index (European line) and large fluctuations in futures prices, investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures盘面 - EC main contract closing price is 1285.000, down 44.0; EC sub - main contract closing price is 1571, down 62.90. The spread between EC2510 and EC2512 is - 286.00, up 18.50; the spread between EC2510 and EC2602 is - 115.00, up 9.80. The EC contract basis is 705.20, up 31.00. The main contract position of EC is 54,248, up 523 [1] Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) is 1990.20, down 189.97; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly) is 1,041.38, down 64.91. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) is 1415.36, down 44.83; container ship capacity is 1,227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 0.44. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) is 1174.87, down 18.47; CCFI (European line) (weekly) is 1,757.74, down 32.73. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2046.00, down 5.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1,874.00, down 56.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships is 14,606.00, up 204.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships is 26,364.00, down 1704.00 [1] Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports. In June, the global economic and trade friction index was 92, in the medium - high range. Affected by factors such as the US extending the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, the global economic and trade friction continued to ease, with the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures decreasing by 14.7% year - on - year and 13.7% month - on - month. The New York Fed President Williams said it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time and is quite optimistic about the economic situation [1] Key Points to Watch - On August 29, important economic data will be released, including Japan's July unemployment rate, France's August CPI monthly rate preliminary value, France's second - quarter GDP annual rate final value, Germany's August seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's August CPI monthly rate preliminary value, the US July core PCE price index annual rate, the US July personal expenditure monthly rate, and the US August University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [1]