. 1 2 1 ■ 证券研究报告 张伟 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160525060002 zhanqwei04@ctsec.com 任思雨 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160525090006 rensy@ctsec.com 相关报告 政策点评 / 2026.01.31 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! 沃什么穷不是 浪尔完 1. 《存款搬家，新路径 》 2026-01-30 2.《工业利润超季节性反弹》 2026-01- 28 3. 《美联储或许并不重要》 2026-01- 27 是不是沃什当选、沃什采取怎样的货币政策其实都不重要,重要的是，谁才 � 是当今的保罗 · 沃尔克?要解决美国的问题,只能靠颠覆性的技术进步,大幅 提高生产力,用更快的增长覆盖高额的债务。这也是美国在 80年代走出大滞 胎的根本原因。 ❖ 并不是沃尔克选择了时代，而是时代选择了沃尔克。1970年代开始的信息技 术革命的有效突破，才给沃尔克大幅加息整治通胀以及里根整顿财政纪律、 供给侧改革提供了最必要的条件和底气。没有信息技术革命的背景，沃尔克 和里根的政策可能也难以有效推行。所以，美联储其实并不重要，在 AI 技术 ...

正如我所说，当前美国财经界正经历一场极为罕见的地震。那些平日里在华尔街呼风唤雨、彼此恨不得吞了对方骨头的顶级大佬，竟然破天荒地坐到了一 张桌子上，联名写了一封信。与此同时，所有在世的前美联储主席，无论是共和党提拔的，还是民主党赏识的，这群平时退休后只会在家钓鱼、养花、写 回忆录的老头老太，也集体站了出来。 他们所有人，只为了发出一个共同的警告：白宫，别再伸手干扰美联储。这可不寻常。在华盛顿的政治游戏中，大家总是讲究一层不变的体面，惯于看破 不说破，尤其是对于这些身居高位的精英们。而如今，这些既得利益者竟然撕下脸皮，赤裸裸地对总统喊话，说明事情已经到了异常严重的地步。惠誉评 级更是把话挑明了：美联储的独立性，代表着美国主权信用评级，代表着美元霸权的最后一道屏障。如果特朗普敢动这块屏障，我们就敢下调美国的评 级。这哪是警告？这分明是下战书。可特朗普在乎吗？显然不在乎。对于这位脑袋里只装着交易和选票的懂王来说，那些在数据表格前推眼镜的美联储书 呆子，根本就是他通向权力巅峰路上的最大障碍。他现在心里想的，是做一件无数美国总统都曾梦想做过的事，但只有尼克松真正实现过的事——把印钞 机的开关，装进白宫的椭圆形办公室里。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential negative consequences of former President Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which could undermine the Fed's independence and exacerbate inflation, contrary to his campaign promises to combat it [1][2]. Economic Overheating Risks - Artificially lowering interest rates may lead to economic overheating and increased inflation, which is the very issue Trump aims to address. Low borrowing costs can stimulate demand excessively, resulting in too many dollars chasing too few goods, a situation that contributed to inflation reaching a 40-year high post-COVID-19 [2]. Mortgage Rate Concerns - If investors become concerned about the Fed's independence and its commitment to controlling inflation, market panic could ensue. This could lead to higher long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, which are already around 7%, worsening the housing affordability crisis [3]. Historical Lessons from Nixon - Historical precedents show that interference with central banks can lead to disastrous outcomes. President Nixon pressured the Fed to adopt expansionary monetary policies before the 1972 election, resulting in runaway inflation that peaked above 13% by 1980, leading to a period known as "stagflation" [4]. Lessons from Erdogan's Turkey - The recent experience of Turkey under President Erdogan, who dismissed the central bank governor and pressured for rate cuts, resulted in a currency collapse and inflation exceeding 80%. This serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of political interference in central banking [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **gold and precious metals industry**, particularly the comparison between gold and interest-bearing assets like the S&P 500 over a long-term horizon [1][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Long-term Performance**: Gold and the S&P 500 have achieved similar annualized compound growth rates of approximately **7.2%** over the past **65 years**, challenging traditional views on non-yielding assets [1][5]. - **Market Cycles**: Historical analysis indicates that the market has experienced two major cycles over the past **65 years**, each lasting about **30-40 years**, where initially interest-bearing assets perform well, followed by a period where value-preserving assets like gold gain strength [1][7]. - **Current Market Position**: The market is at a critical juncture where the returns of gold and the S&P 500 are converging. The outcome in the next **one to two years** will depend on whether the AI industry can sustain the S&P 500 or if economic stagnation will lead to a rise in gold prices [1][8]. - **Extreme Scenarios for Gold Prices**: In extreme scenarios, gold prices could reach **$10,000** in a situation similar to the **1980s stagflation**, or **$4,154** during a recession akin to **2011**, indicating significant potential for price increases under adverse economic conditions [1][9][10]. - **Asset Allocation Strategies**: During economic recessions, it is advised to avoid risk assets and hold cash and gold. However, in stagflation periods, cash may depreciate, making physical assets like gold more advantageous [1][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Copper-Gold Ratio**: The copper-gold ratio has reached a historical low, similar to the **1980s stagflation**, indicating weak expectations for the manufacturing and industrial sectors, which reflects a broader slowdown in global economic momentum [2][13]. - **Future of Gold as a Value Asset**: The current economic environment suggests that the bull market for gold may not be over, with potential risks of the U.S. economy declining further, transitioning from a soft landing to a more severe downturn [1][14]. - **Investment Recommendations**: In the current low-interest-rate environment, a cautious approach to gold stocks is advised, but the potential for significant returns exists due to low valuation levels. Specific stocks such as **Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold**, and others are recommended for investment [1][15][16]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the gold market's dynamics, investment strategies, and economic indicators.