既然旧的"效率优先"全球化逻辑不灵了，买房致富的路径也失 效了，那么，钱该往哪里去？ 作者：郑晨烨 封图：受访者供图 "如果商品不能越过国界，那么军队就要越过国界。"11月19日，在2025年第九届中欧国际工商 学院深圳论坛上，兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委引用了法国经济学家巴斯夏的一句名言，来描述当 下的全球贸易局势。 他认为，全球经济正处于"康波萧条期"，老的技术潜力耗尽，新的技术还没长大，存量博弈导致 多边合作被零和思维取代。这种状态，就像科幻小说《三体》里的"乱纪元"，行星围着三颗恒星 转，轨道已经算不清楚了。 这种"乱"，在数据上表现得更直接。野村证券中国首席经济学家陆挺在现场算了一笔账：过去五 年，中国出口年均增长率接近8%，但在未来的"十五五"期间，这个数字可能会回落到3%至5%。 陆挺同时表示，不能只看新经济，而不管被称为"老登"的房地产行业，虽然房地产不再是增长支 柱，但它留下的债务链条和历史遗留问题，仍是未来五年中国宏观经济不得不面对的负累。 既然旧的"效率优先"全球化逻辑不灵了，买房致富的路径也失效了，那么，钱该往哪里去？ "要去大海里打鲸鱼，不要在烂泥塘里挖泥鳅。"深圳东方港湾投资管理股份 ...

Core Insights - The source of uncertainty in asset returns is influenced by the trend of "de-globalization," which continues to affect economic fundamentals and is gradually incorporated into valuation assumptions [3][10] - Asset diversification is considered a "free lunch" in asset allocation, with its value derived from the correlation between different assets [4][17] - In the current uncertain environment, investment strategies should focus on anchoring growth through income-generating assets, leveraging to enhance returns, and recognizing the ongoing macro narrative surrounding gold [5][21][38] Source of Uncertainty in Asset Returns - The "de-globalization" trend has emerged and will continue to impact economic fundamentals, with the potential for structural risks and profit expectations in certain sectors [10] - The internal macro environment is facing risks of slowing economic growth and a transition in economic drivers, moving from a high-growth phase to a medium-low growth phase [12] - The changes in Sharpe ratios across different asset classes indicate varying performance and risk profiles, with a notable downward trend in bond yield spreads since 2011 [14][15] Asset Diversification - The essence of asset diversification lies in investing in different asset classes to reduce overall portfolio risk while balancing returns, with the underlying value stemming from asset correlations [18] - Historical performance data shows significant fluctuations in quarterly returns across different years, highlighting the importance of diversification in managing risk [18] Income-Generating Assets - Income-generating assets, such as bonds and high-dividend stocks, provide predictable cash flows, enhance liquidity, and can hedge against inflation, making them essential in a diversified portfolio [23][21] - High-dividend strategies focus on stable cash flows and valuation recovery, with companies in mature industries typically exhibiting a higher propensity for dividends [26][28] Leveraging for Growth - The core value of introducing leverage in a portfolio is to enhance expected returns while maintaining overall risk balance, particularly in a risk parity framework [34] - Leveraging can amplify returns from low-risk assets without disrupting the risk contribution structure of the overall portfolio [34] High-Quality Growth - High-quality growth is identified as a key driver for the new phase of economic growth, emphasizing the importance of technological innovation and productivity improvements [35][37] - The focus on new quality production capabilities aims to enhance total factor productivity, with specific attention to sectors such as digital economy, high-end manufacturing, and renewable energy [36] Gold as a Strategic Asset - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the questioning of the dollar's safety have led to increased global demand for gold as a risk diversification strategy [38][39] - Historical data indicates a significant rise in gold reserves among global economies since 2008, reflecting a shift away from dollar dependency [40]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) reported a strong performance for the first half of 2025, with significant increases in net operating income and profit attributable to shareholders, leading to a rise in stock price by over 6% following the earnings announcement [1][2]. Financial Performance - The net operating income before impairment provisions for the first half of 2025 was HKD 40.022 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.26% [1]. - Profit attributable to shareholders reached HKD 22.12 billion, up 10.54% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at HKD 2.0952 [1]. - The interim dividend proposed is HKD 0.58 per share [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Net interest income, after accounting for foreign exchange swap contracts, increased to HKD 28.929 billion, a year-on-year rise of 0.4%, driven by growth in average interest-earning assets [2]. - Average interest-earning assets grew by HKD 203.871 billion or 5.7% year-on-year [2]. - The net service fee and commission income increased year-on-year, benefiting from improved market conditions in investment, with notable growth in insurance, securities brokerage, and fund business commissions [1]. Profitability Metrics - The net trading income also saw a year-on-year increase, which helped offset the rise in operating expenses, impairment provisions, and net losses from fair value adjustments of investment properties [1]. - The total profit for the period was HKD 22.796 billion, an increase of HKD 2.333 billion or 11.4% year-on-year [1]. Interest Margin - The net interest margin, after including foreign exchange swap contracts, was 1.54%, down 7 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to lower market interest rates compared to the same period last year [2]. - The group has strengthened deposit pricing and term management to optimize the deposit structure, which has partially mitigated the impact of declining market interest rates [2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **gold and precious metals industry**, particularly the comparison between gold and interest-bearing assets like the S&P 500 over a long-term horizon [1][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Long-term Performance**: Gold and the S&P 500 have achieved similar annualized compound growth rates of approximately **7.2%** over the past **65 years**, challenging traditional views on non-yielding assets [1][5]. - **Market Cycles**: Historical analysis indicates that the market has experienced two major cycles over the past **65 years**, each lasting about **30-40 years**, where initially interest-bearing assets perform well, followed by a period where value-preserving assets like gold gain strength [1][7]. - **Current Market Position**: The market is at a critical juncture where the returns of gold and the S&P 500 are converging. The outcome in the next **one to two years** will depend on whether the AI industry can sustain the S&P 500 or if economic stagnation will lead to a rise in gold prices [1][8]. - **Extreme Scenarios for Gold Prices**: In extreme scenarios, gold prices could reach **$10,000** in a situation similar to the **1980s stagflation**, or **$4,154** during a recession akin to **2011**, indicating significant potential for price increases under adverse economic conditions [1][9][10]. - **Asset Allocation Strategies**: During economic recessions, it is advised to avoid risk assets and hold cash and gold. However, in stagflation periods, cash may depreciate, making physical assets like gold more advantageous [1][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Copper-Gold Ratio**: The copper-gold ratio has reached a historical low, similar to the **1980s stagflation**, indicating weak expectations for the manufacturing and industrial sectors, which reflects a broader slowdown in global economic momentum [2][13]. - **Future of Gold as a Value Asset**: The current economic environment suggests that the bull market for gold may not be over, with potential risks of the U.S. economy declining further, transitioning from a soft landing to a more severe downturn [1][14]. - **Investment Recommendations**: In the current low-interest-rate environment, a cautious approach to gold stocks is advised, but the potential for significant returns exists due to low valuation levels. Specific stocks such as **Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold**, and others are recommended for investment [1][15][16]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the gold market's dynamics, investment strategies, and economic indicators.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a 3.9% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 17.336 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.8% to 2.164 billion yuan [1]. - The financial and consulting business remains a key revenue driver, with a revenue increase of 2.1% year-on-year, while equipment and industrial operations saw declines of 10.7% and 15.5%, respectively [1][17]. - The company has focused on the development of inclusive finance, achieving a 28.7% growth in the asset scale of this business, with revenue soaring by 124.1% year-on-year [3][38]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the average return on equity was 8.66%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s interest-earning assets stood at 266.626 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.3% increase from the end of the previous year [2]. - The average yield on interest-earning assets rose to 8.08%, while the cost of interest-bearing liabilities decreased to 4.02%, leading to a net interest margin of 4.51% [2][25]. Business Segments - The financial and consulting segment generated 110.90 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 64.0% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 57.5% [1][19]. - The inclusive finance business achieved a revenue of 14.51 billion yuan, significantly contributing to overall growth [3][38]. Asset Quality - The company reported a non-performing loan ratio of 1.05% and a watchlist ratio of 5.51%, both showing a decline from the previous year [3][36]. - The provision coverage ratio remained stable at 227.33%, indicating solid asset quality [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high cash dividend payout ratio, with projections for net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.01 billion yuan, 4.23 billion yuan, and 4.48 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5].

Core Insights - The current gold bull market has lasted for 33 months, with increasing divergence in market views regarding its cycle position and potential [3][18] - The report provides a new perspective on the confrontation between gold and interest-bearing assets, suggesting that gold still has room to rise despite fears of high prices [3][10] - The second half of the year may see a higher probability of recession, which could further boost the gold bull market through cyclical safe-haven investments and de-dollarization trends [3][10] Half-Year Review: Three Phases of Change - As of June 30, 2025, gold prices increased by 26% to $3,302 per ounce, with a peak of $3,500 per ounce, divided into three phases: January-March saw a COMEX squeeze, April experienced a V-shaped reversal due to tariff escalations, and May-June saw geopolitical easing leading to price stabilization [8][21] - Notable differences this year include a shift in U.S. economic expectations, a significant increase in the negative correlation between gold prices and the U.S. dollar/stock market, and the sensitivity of gold stocks to price changes due to historically low valuations [8][29] Gold's Perspective: Store of Value vs. Interest-Bearing Assets - Gold's opposition is not only to the U.S. dollar but also to interest-bearing assets, with historical data showing that gold and interest-bearing assets have cyclical rotations rather than a one-sided advantage [9][37] - The report highlights that the annual compound returns of gold and the S&P 500 are nearly equal at approximately 7.2%, indicating that stable long-term returns are challenging to achieve [9][40] Historical Price Anchoring: Extreme Pricing Scenarios - The report explores potential extreme pricing scenarios for gold, suggesting that in a recessionary environment, gold could reach $4,196 per ounce, while in a stagflation scenario, it could reach $10,093 per ounce [10][60] - The analysis indicates that the current gold price could be 1.25 times higher in a recession scenario, reflecting a shift in investment from risk assets to gold as a safe haven [10][61] Semi-Annual Outlook: Focus on Recession Pathways and Gold Stock Elasticity - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding different historical pathways to gauge gold's current cycle position, with a focus on preparing for potential recession scenarios [10][59] - Gold stocks are expected to show greater elasticity due to their extreme undervaluation and potential performance recovery as market conditions evolve [10][35]