沃什在一场深度访谈中直言通胀是美联储的责任，不能归咎于外界因素。作为接替鲍威尔的热门人选，他给出的改革方案并非推倒重来，而是主张美联储 需要"复兴"而非"革命"。针对高利率困境，沃什认为，可以通过缩表换取低利率空间。"如果我们让印钞机安静一点，利率其实可以更低。" 近日，特朗普亲信推举沃什当美联储主席。如果明年凯文·沃什接掌美联储，市场可能会看到几十年来美联储最显著的政策转向之一。 今年早些时候，在一场与胡佛研究所主持人彼得·罗宾逊（Peter Robinson）的对谈中，沃什毫不避讳地指出了当前美联储体系的沉疴，并抛出了一个 论断： "通胀是一种选择（Inflation is a choice）。" 他驳斥了将通胀归咎于供应链或地缘政治的借口，坚持认为央行完全有能力决定价格水平，现在 的局面正是美联储错误选择的结果。 沃什的核心论点建立在对"自满"的批判之上。他指出，美联储在"大稳健"时期（Great Moderation）之后误以为通胀已死，从而在非危机时期维持了过 于庞大的资产负债表。引用沃什的原话： "当你不断地这里印一万亿，那里印一万亿，这早晚会找上门来。" 他认为，美联储在2010年至2020年的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, a potential successor to the Federal Reserve Chair, criticizes the current Fed's policies and suggests significant reforms to address inflation, which he claims is a result of poor policy choices rather than external factors [1][5][20]. Group 1: Warsh's Critique of the Federal Reserve - Warsh argues that inflation is a choice made by the Federal Reserve, emphasizing that the central bank has the power to control price levels [5][20]. - He criticizes the Fed's complacency during the "Great Moderation" period, suggesting that the failure to reduce the balance sheet led to the current inflation crisis [1][5]. - Warsh believes that the Fed has deviated from its core mission of maintaining price stability and has engaged in excessive monetary interventions [5][20]. Group 2: Proposed Reforms - Warsh advocates for a "restoration" of the Federal Reserve rather than a complete overhaul, suggesting that the existing framework should be preserved while correcting past mistakes [2][5]. - He proposes reducing the Fed's balance sheet, which currently stands at $7 trillion, to create room for lower nominal interest rates [2][5]. - Warsh emphasizes the need for a clear division of responsibilities between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, arguing that both should focus on their respective roles without overstepping boundaries [2][5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite his criticisms, Warsh expresses optimism about the U.S. economy, predicting a productivity boom driven by AI, similar to the economic growth seen during the Reagan era [2][5]. - He believes that rational policy adjustments can lead to significant resilience in the U.S. economy [2][5].