上周M2601—M2605、M2603—M2605价差明显走扩，今日M3—5态势依旧较强，涨至330元/吨上方， M1—5于250元/吨附近盘整。外盘与之对应的是巴西基差坚挺，特别是近月，内盘则是传海关延长大豆 通关时间，以及大豆拍卖成交价格贵但成交尚可。 由于CBOT大豆的大幅下跌，巴西的基差出现了明显走强，上周五2月FOB价格周度上涨21美分，总体 一口价小幅下跌，但从买盘价差上看，周度上涨8美分。买卖价差较大，难以成交。近月比起远月，相 对于美豆具有更高的性价比，需求方面会有一定的支撑。且在新作大规模丰收前，旧作几乎没有供应压 力。从榨利的角度看，巴西3月船期对于中国的压榨利润已经开放，预计会对巴西的贴水有一定的支 撑。 2.USDA最新的12月份报告，未对美国国内供需平衡表进行任何调整。较好的天气下，南美2025/2026季 大豆丰产可能性大，美国大豆在溢价南美的情况下，出口可能持续承压。 3.今年6月中旬EPA已公布了未来两年美国生物燃料的掺混量草案，一般经过一段时间的公众意见征求 后，12月会公布最终方案，但本周有媒体透露目前EPA还在斟酌公众的意见，最终方案很难在今年公 布。 4.阿根廷再次下调 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic soybean harvest is nearing completion with quality differentiation, and prices are stabilizing. High soybean imports continue, and there is a possibility of importing US soybeans due to upcoming Sino - US negotiations. Oil mill operating rates are rising, and soybean meal inventories are gradually decreasing. Demand remains strong. The soybean No.1 contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound, while the soybean meal contract will oscillate and adjust. Enterprises are advised to make purchases on dips as needed [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The soybean No.2601 contract oscillated and rebounded. The spot price was relatively stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4000 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakened, and the futures price shifted from a discount to a premium. - The soybean meal 01 contract stopped falling after oscillation, rebounding after hitting a low of 2863. The spot price of soybean meal slightly declined, with the 43 - protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang dropping from 2900 yuan/ton to around 2870 yuan/ton. The basis oscillated, and the futures price maintained a slight premium [4]. Domestic Soybean Situation - As of October 17, the domestic soybean harvest was more than half - completed, showing variety differentiation. The remaining grain ratio in Heilongjiang rose to 90%, in Anhui to 70%, in Henan to 60%, and in Shandong to 70%. The soybean harvest in Heilongjiang was almost finished, with good quality, while in North China and other regions, continuous rain led to poor quality [4]. Import Situation - In September, domestic soybean imports reached 12.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to September, cumulative imports were 86.185 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. Sino - US negotiations may take place at the end of this month, with soybeans being one of the three major demands. The market expects China to purchase US soybeans to ease the situation. However, domestic imports are mainly from South America, and as the cost of Brazilian soybeans rises, purchases have slowed down. As of October 17, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 2.21 million tons, a significant month - on - month decline, and port soybean inventories were 9.884 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline, remaining at a high level in recent years [4]. US Soybean Situation - US soybeans are oscillating at a low level. The US government shutdown has suspended the release of USDA reports. Currently, the US soybean harvest may be more than half - completed, but US soybean farmers have nowhere to sell their soybeans due to the government shutdown and受阻 aid. Sino - US negotiation expectations are boosting US soybeans [5]. Oil Mill Situation - As of October 17, the operating rate of oil mills was 59.59%, a significant increase. The soybean crushing volume was 2.166 million tons, returning to a high level. Oil mill soybean inventories reached 7.687 million tons, hitting a new high in recent years. Soybean meal production was 1.711 million tons, a significant increase. Oil mill soybean meal inventories were 976,200 tons, a further month - on - month decline, and the unexecuted soybean meal contracts were 5.007 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The profit from crushing Brazilian soybeans has declined [5]. Feed Demand Situation - In the livestock farming sector, pig prices rebounded after a sharp decline, but farming is still in significant losses. As of October 17, the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 375.29 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 244.7 yuan per head, with losses widening. Leading pig enterprises are also facing losses. Policy regulation is insufficient and has a lagging effect. Although the production capacity has been adjusted downward to some extent, the decline is not large, and the pig inventory is still growing due to inertia. - In the poultry sector, egg prices rebounded and then fell again. Laying hen farming is back in the red, and the culling rate is insufficient. The inventory in September continued to grow and remained at a historical high. Feed demand is strong. As of October 17, the soybean meal inventory days of feed mills were 7.93 days, continuing to decline [6].

Market Conditions Futures Market - The main continuous contract of DCE Soybean No. 1 futures fluctuated within a narrow range today, closing at 4117 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 111,267 lots and an open interest of 110,426 lots, a decrease of 10,173 lots [2]. - The closing prices of A2509, A2511, A2601, and A2603 contracts were 4117 yuan/ton, 4101 yuan/ton, 4095 yuan/ton, and 4084 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.22%, 0.22%, 0.07%, and 0.15% respectively [3]. Spot Market - Today's basis of Soybean No. 1 was -97 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to narrow. The total number of registered warehouse receipts for Soybean No. 1 was 13,688 lots, an increase of 286 lots from the previous trading day [5]. Influencing Factors Important Events - The average price of domestic soybeans was 4011 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous day, and the spot price of soybeans has fluctuated up and down in recent days. The soybean inventory at major ports was 6.9117 million tons, up 0.81% from the previous day, and the port soybean inventory continued to accumulate [7][9]. Industry News - The decline of the near - month landed duty - paid price of imported soybeans has slowed down, and the price has stabilized with a slight increase. The near - month landed duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was 4755.44 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was 3909.75 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3762.30 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall profit of enterprise crushing has maintained a stable and rising trend [10].