Report Core View - The US soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and there is no obvious short - term weather speculation driver. The Brazilian soybean premium is still under selling pressure in the short term. The domestic soybean inventory continues to rise to a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly by 20,500 tons. It is expected that domestic soybean crushing will recover to a high level, and soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate at an accelerated pace. In the short term, it will continue to digest the pressure of spot basis and the bearish factor of Brazilian selling pressure. The futures price is expected to be weak in a volatile manner. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the disturbances of US soybean planting area and weather, as well as changes in Brazilian premiums [6][7] Basis Data Soybean Meal Spot Basis - Dalian: The basis value is 91, with a change of - 23 [3][4] - Tianjin: The basis value is 91, with a change of - 23; the basis for the main contract is 2000 [4] - Rizhao: The basis value is 11, with a change of - 23; the basis for the main contract is 1500 [4] - Zhangjiagang: The basis value is - 9, with a change of - 43; the basis for the main contract is 1000 [4] - Dongguan: The basis value is 31, with a change of - 33 [4] - Zhanjiang: The basis value is 91, with a change of - 43; the basis for the main contract is 1000, and there is also a value of 800 [4] - Fangcheng: The change is - 33; the basis for the main contract has values of 600 and 400 [4] Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis - Guangdong: The basis value is - 120, with a change of - 1; the basis for the main contract is 200, and there are also values of - 200 at different times [4] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 530, with a change of - 30; the main - contract spread on the futures market is 379, with a change of 2 [5] Inventory and Production Data Inventory - Chinese port soybean inventory and national major oil mills' soybean inventory are on the rise, and the national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory has increased slightly by 20,500 tons [6] - The days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises and the inventory of national major oil mills' soybean meal are presented in the time - series data [5] Production - The operating rate and soybean crushing volume of national major oil mills are shown in the time - series data, and it is expected that domestic crushing will recover to a high level [5][6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - CBOT soybean futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, with Brazilian discounts oscillating at the bottom. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract has limited room for further decline, and it is advisable to enter the market at low prices. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to be bearish, and the low level of the futures price may shorten the downward space of the basis [17]. - In the short term, the supply and demand of live pigs are expected to increase slightly, remaining in a slightly loose balance. Attention should be paid to the timing of potential supply release, which may cause prices to continue to be under pressure. However, continuous price declines may trigger farmers' reluctance to sell, hindering the price decline [18][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - The main DCE soybean meal 2509 contract rose 0.10% to 2889 yuan/ton, with coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes down 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The main DCE live pig 2509 contract rose 0.04% to 13690 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs was 14.45 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract closed unchanged at 1051 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Production Areas - In the US Midwest, it was dry on the weekend and will see rainfall again this week. In the west, there were scattered showers until last Friday, dry on Saturday and Sunday, and scattered showers on Monday. Temperatures varied. In the east, there were scattered showers until Saturday, mostly dry on Sunday, and scattered showers on Monday. Temperatures also fluctuated. The 6 - 10 - day outlook shows scattered showers from Tuesday to Thursday and mostly dry from Friday to Saturday. The southeastern low - pressure will bring showers to the east, and another weather system will bring more rainfall potential [4]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On May 16, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 646 million tons, up 57 million tons week - on - week. The soybean meal inventory was 12 million tons, up 2 million tons week - on - week [5]. - On May 19, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 178,000 tons, up 90,000 tons from the previous day. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill startup rate was 60.67%, up 3.17% from the previous day [5]. - On May 20, the import cost of US soybeans was 4553 yuan, up 6 yuan; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3660 yuan, up 5 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3570 yuan, up 50 yuan [5]. - On May 20, the daily slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises' live pigs was 269,369, up 2.67% [5]. - On May 20, the daily slaughter volume of key slaughtering enterprises' live pigs was 122,982, down 0.26% [6]. - In March 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.68 million tons of soybeans, producing 3.55 million tons of soybean meal and 960,000 tons of soybean oil. The ending inventory of soybeans was 2578 tons, soybean meal was 2.2 million tons, and soybean oil was 320,000 tons [6]. - As of May 17, the harvesting rate of 2024/25 Brazilian soybeans was 98.9% [6]. - As of May 18, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 66%, and the emergence rate was 34% [6]. - In the first three weeks of May, Brazil exported 7,836,693.24 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 712,426.66 tons, up 11.34% from the same period last year [7]. - China's imported soybeans' customs clearance has accelerated from over 20 days to about 10 days. It is expected that 13 million tons will arrive in May, 12 million tons in June, and 9.5 million tons in July [7]. 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts including the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal prices in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live pig prices in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory [10][11][14][15]. 5. Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean export weakness and good sowing weather suppress the rebound of US soybeans, but concerns about Argentine soybean production cuts provide short - term support. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract has limited downward space. The supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose, and the inventory pressure may reach its maximum from late June to July. The spot price of soybean meal is bearish [17]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply has slightly increased, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing. The terminal demand has declined, but the Dragon Boat Festival备货 may boost demand briefly. In the short term, supply and demand are in a slightly loose balance, and the price may be under pressure [18][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Anticipate the gradual recovery of domestic soybean meal inventory, alleviation of spot tightness, pressure on basis, and expect the futures market to fluctuate weakly, but limited decline due to import cost support. Suggest waiting for low - level long - position opportunities [5] 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Price and Basis Data - On April 25th, 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 6901, down 72; in Tianjin was 1019, down 222; in Rizhao was 628, down 112; in Zhangjiagang was 618, down 82; in Dongguan was 819, down 62; in Meijiang was 869, down 12; in Fangcheng was 819, up 128. Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 224, up 41 [3] 3.2 Spread Data - Spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal (Guangdong) was 1390, down 90; futures spread (main contract) was 347, up 13 [4] 3.3 International and Inventory Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.2342, and the futures crushing profit was 155 yuan/ton, up 5. Domestic soybean inventories reached a high level, soybean meal inventories were at a very low level and expected to gradually recover, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises decreased to a low level [4][5] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply side: Spot supply is tight, customs clearance time in some areas is extended; a large amount of Brazilian soybeans are expected to arrive in May and June; new - crop US soybean planting area is expected to shrink; recent rainfall in US soybean - growing areas may improve soil moisture but delay sowing. Demand side: Pig supply is expected to increase steadily before September; meat poultry production is expected to remain high in the first half of the year, and egg - laying poultry inventory is expected to remain high; the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased significantly; wheat substitutes for corn in some areas, reducing protein consumption, and downstream transactions and pick - up are poor [4][5]