投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2025/11/25 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 |数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 | 指标 | | 11月24日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 79 | | 1600 | ----- 18/19 ----- 22/23 | | ===== 19/20 ----- 23/24 | == - 24/25 | | == - 25/26 | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 天津 日照 张家港 | 49 -11 | | 1200 800 400 | | | | | | | | | | -11 | | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 400 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 | | | 04/24 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 10/27 11/27 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the domestic soybean meal market is expected to be oscillatingly stronger, but the rebound height of the futures price is limited by the current loose supply of nearby soybean meal and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the policy changes between China and the US, adjustments in the US Department of Agriculture reports, and changes in South American weather [9]. 3. Summary by Related Contents a. Basis and Spread Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract), on November 3rd, the basis in Dalian was 74 with a rise of 15; in Tianjin, it was 54 with a rise of 25; in other regions like Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, etc., specific basis and changes are also provided. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 67 with a decline of 11. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 483 with a rise of 13, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 535 with a decline of 98 [6][7]. b. Supply Situation - The USDA currently estimates the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 2025/2026 season at 6.9%. The expected yield per acre of 53.5 bushels may be lowered, while the export forecast has room for an upward adjustment, and the supply - demand balance of US soybeans is expected to be tight. As of October 25th, according to CONAB data, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week, 37.7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42.5%. The far - month soybean purchase and shipping progress is slow [7][8]. c. Demand Situation - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory, and the reduction in production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current farming profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, but the提货 performance has been good [9]. d. Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs for the same period, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic soybean harvest is nearing completion with quality differentiation, and prices are stabilizing. High soybean imports continue, and there is a possibility of importing US soybeans due to upcoming Sino - US negotiations. Oil mill operating rates are rising, and soybean meal inventories are gradually decreasing. Demand remains strong. The soybean No.1 contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound, while the soybean meal contract will oscillate and adjust. Enterprises are advised to make purchases on dips as needed [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The soybean No.2601 contract oscillated and rebounded. The spot price was relatively stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4000 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakened, and the futures price shifted from a discount to a premium. - The soybean meal 01 contract stopped falling after oscillation, rebounding after hitting a low of 2863. The spot price of soybean meal slightly declined, with the 43 - protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang dropping from 2900 yuan/ton to around 2870 yuan/ton. The basis oscillated, and the futures price maintained a slight premium [4]. Domestic Soybean Situation - As of October 17, the domestic soybean harvest was more than half - completed, showing variety differentiation. The remaining grain ratio in Heilongjiang rose to 90%, in Anhui to 70%, in Henan to 60%, and in Shandong to 70%. The soybean harvest in Heilongjiang was almost finished, with good quality, while in North China and other regions, continuous rain led to poor quality [4]. Import Situation - In September, domestic soybean imports reached 12.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to September, cumulative imports were 86.185 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. Sino - US negotiations may take place at the end of this month, with soybeans being one of the three major demands. The market expects China to purchase US soybeans to ease the situation. However, domestic imports are mainly from South America, and as the cost of Brazilian soybeans rises, purchases have slowed down. As of October 17, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 2.21 million tons, a significant month - on - month decline, and port soybean inventories were 9.884 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline, remaining at a high level in recent years [4]. US Soybean Situation - US soybeans are oscillating at a low level. The US government shutdown has suspended the release of USDA reports. Currently, the US soybean harvest may be more than half - completed, but US soybean farmers have nowhere to sell their soybeans due to the government shutdown and受阻 aid. Sino - US negotiation expectations are boosting US soybeans [5]. Oil Mill Situation - As of October 17, the operating rate of oil mills was 59.59%, a significant increase. The soybean crushing volume was 2.166 million tons, returning to a high level. Oil mill soybean inventories reached 7.687 million tons, hitting a new high in recent years. Soybean meal production was 1.711 million tons, a significant increase. Oil mill soybean meal inventories were 976,200 tons, a further month - on - month decline, and the unexecuted soybean meal contracts were 5.007 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The profit from crushing Brazilian soybeans has declined [5]. Feed Demand Situation - In the livestock farming sector, pig prices rebounded after a sharp decline, but farming is still in significant losses. As of October 17, the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 375.29 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 244.7 yuan per head, with losses widening. Leading pig enterprises are also facing losses. Policy regulation is insufficient and has a lagging effect. Although the production capacity has been adjusted downward to some extent, the decline is not large, and the pig inventory is still growing due to inertia. - In the poultry sector, egg prices rebounded and then fell again. Laying hen farming is back in the red, and the culling rate is insufficient. The inventory in September continued to grow and remained at a historical high. Feed demand is strong. As of October 17, the soybean meal inventory days of feed mills were 7.93 days, continuing to decline [6].

Report Core View - The US soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and there is no obvious short - term weather speculation driver. The Brazilian soybean premium is still under selling pressure in the short term. The domestic soybean inventory continues to rise to a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly by 20,500 tons. It is expected that domestic soybean crushing will recover to a high level, and soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate at an accelerated pace. In the short term, it will continue to digest the pressure of spot basis and the bearish factor of Brazilian selling pressure. The futures price is expected to be weak in a volatile manner. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the disturbances of US soybean planting area and weather, as well as changes in Brazilian premiums [6][7] Basis Data Soybean Meal Spot Basis - Dalian: The basis value is 91, with a change of - 23 [3][4] - Tianjin: The basis value is 91, with a change of - 23; the basis for the main contract is 2000 [4] - Rizhao: The basis value is 11, with a change of - 23; the basis for the main contract is 1500 [4] - Zhangjiagang: The basis value is - 9, with a change of - 43; the basis for the main contract is 1000 [4] - Dongguan: The basis value is 31, with a change of - 33 [4] - Zhanjiang: The basis value is 91, with a change of - 43; the basis for the main contract is 1000, and there is also a value of 800 [4] - Fangcheng: The change is - 33; the basis for the main contract has values of 600 and 400 [4] Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis - Guangdong: The basis value is - 120, with a change of - 1; the basis for the main contract is 200, and there are also values of - 200 at different times [4] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 530, with a change of - 30; the main - contract spread on the futures market is 379, with a change of 2 [5] Inventory and Production Data Inventory - Chinese port soybean inventory and national major oil mills' soybean inventory are on the rise, and the national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory has increased slightly by 20,500 tons [6] - The days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises and the inventory of national major oil mills' soybean meal are presented in the time - series data [5] Production - The operating rate and soybean crushing volume of national major oil mills are shown in the time - series data, and it is expected that domestic crushing will recover to a high level [5][6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - CBOT soybean futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, with Brazilian discounts oscillating at the bottom. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract has limited room for further decline, and it is advisable to enter the market at low prices. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to be bearish, and the low level of the futures price may shorten the downward space of the basis [17]. - In the short term, the supply and demand of live pigs are expected to increase slightly, remaining in a slightly loose balance. Attention should be paid to the timing of potential supply release, which may cause prices to continue to be under pressure. However, continuous price declines may trigger farmers' reluctance to sell, hindering the price decline [18][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - The main DCE soybean meal 2509 contract rose 0.10% to 2889 yuan/ton, with coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes down 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The main DCE live pig 2509 contract rose 0.04% to 13690 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs was 14.45 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract closed unchanged at 1051 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Production Areas - In the US Midwest, it was dry on the weekend and will see rainfall again this week. In the west, there were scattered showers until last Friday, dry on Saturday and Sunday, and scattered showers on Monday. Temperatures varied. In the east, there were scattered showers until Saturday, mostly dry on Sunday, and scattered showers on Monday. Temperatures also fluctuated. The 6 - 10 - day outlook shows scattered showers from Tuesday to Thursday and mostly dry from Friday to Saturday. The southeastern low - pressure will bring showers to the east, and another weather system will bring more rainfall potential [4]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On May 16, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 646 million tons, up 57 million tons week - on - week. The soybean meal inventory was 12 million tons, up 2 million tons week - on - week [5]. - On May 19, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 178,000 tons, up 90,000 tons from the previous day. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill startup rate was 60.67%, up 3.17% from the previous day [5]. - On May 20, the import cost of US soybeans was 4553 yuan, up 6 yuan; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3660 yuan, up 5 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3570 yuan, up 50 yuan [5]. - On May 20, the daily slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises' live pigs was 269,369, up 2.67% [5]. - On May 20, the daily slaughter volume of key slaughtering enterprises' live pigs was 122,982, down 0.26% [6]. - In March 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.68 million tons of soybeans, producing 3.55 million tons of soybean meal and 960,000 tons of soybean oil. The ending inventory of soybeans was 2578 tons, soybean meal was 2.2 million tons, and soybean oil was 320,000 tons [6]. - As of May 17, the harvesting rate of 2024/25 Brazilian soybeans was 98.9% [6]. - As of May 18, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 66%, and the emergence rate was 34% [6]. - In the first three weeks of May, Brazil exported 7,836,693.24 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 712,426.66 tons, up 11.34% from the same period last year [7]. - China's imported soybeans' customs clearance has accelerated from over 20 days to about 10 days. It is expected that 13 million tons will arrive in May, 12 million tons in June, and 9.5 million tons in July [7]. 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts including the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal prices in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live pig prices in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory [10][11][14][15]. 5. Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean export weakness and good sowing weather suppress the rebound of US soybeans, but concerns about Argentine soybean production cuts provide short - term support. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract has limited downward space. The supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose, and the inventory pressure may reach its maximum from late June to July. The spot price of soybean meal is bearish [17]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply has slightly increased, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing. The terminal demand has declined, but the Dragon Boat Festival备货 may boost demand briefly. In the short term, supply and demand are in a slightly loose balance, and the price may be under pressure [18][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Anticipate the gradual recovery of domestic soybean meal inventory, alleviation of spot tightness, pressure on basis, and expect the futures market to fluctuate weakly, but limited decline due to import cost support. Suggest waiting for low - level long - position opportunities [5] 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Price and Basis Data - On April 25th, 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 6901, down 72; in Tianjin was 1019, down 222; in Rizhao was 628, down 112; in Zhangjiagang was 618, down 82; in Dongguan was 819, down 62; in Meijiang was 869, down 12; in Fangcheng was 819, up 128. Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 224, up 41 [3] 3.2 Spread Data - Spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal (Guangdong) was 1390, down 90; futures spread (main contract) was 347, up 13 [4] 3.3 International and Inventory Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.2342, and the futures crushing profit was 155 yuan/ton, up 5. Domestic soybean inventories reached a high level, soybean meal inventories were at a very low level and expected to gradually recover, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises decreased to a low level [4][5] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply side: Spot supply is tight, customs clearance time in some areas is extended; a large amount of Brazilian soybeans are expected to arrive in May and June; new - crop US soybean planting area is expected to shrink; recent rainfall in US soybean - growing areas may improve soil moisture but delay sowing. Demand side: Pig supply is expected to increase steadily before September; meat poultry production is expected to remain high in the first half of the year, and egg - laying poultry inventory is expected to remain high; the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased significantly; wheat substitutes for corn in some areas, reducing protein consumption, and downstream transactions and pick - up are poor [4][5]