业绩底部明确，营收扭转了过去两年同比下降态势。公司此前已经披露业绩快报，2025 年实现营收 3375 亿元，同比增长0.01%；实现归母净利润1502亿元，同比增长1.2%。其中，第四季度营收和归母净 利润同比分别增长1.6%和3.4%。公司2025 年净利息收入和手续费净收入同比分别增长了2.0%和4.4%， 扭转了2024 年下降态势，债市波动下其他非息收入同比下降14%。 机构：国信证券 研究员：田维韦/王剑 资产质量稳健，小微零售业务阶段性承压。期末不良率0.94%，较9 月末持平，较年初下降1bp，加回核 销处置后的不良生成率0.85%，同比下降3bps。 期末拨备覆盖率392%，较9 月末下降约14 个百分点，依然处在高位。其中，公司贷款不良率0.89%，较 年初下降17bps，较6 月末下降4bps；零售贷款不良率1.06%，较年初提升10bps，较6 月末提升3bps，主 要是小微信贷不良率由年初的0.79%提升至1.22%；按揭不良率较年初提升3bps 至0.51%，依然处在低 位；信用卡不良拐点明确，主要是较早提加强风控和加大处置。 投资建议：公司治理机制、文化体系以及优质客群是其重要的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Guosen Securities has given China Merchants Bank (600036.SH, latest price: 39.44 CNY) an "outperform" rating due to several positive indicators in its performance [1] - The bank's revenue has reversed the declining trend seen over the past two years, indicating a clear bottom in its performance [1] - The net interest margin stabilized and rebounded in the fourth quarter, with steady scale expansion [1] Group 2 - The bank's customer base is of high quality, and the income from its wealth management business has shown a strong recovery [1] - By 2025, the income from the wealth management business is projected to reach 44.01 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.9%, which will account for 13.04% of total revenue [1] - The asset quality remains stable, although the small and micro retail business is experiencing temporary pressure [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, showcasing resilience with adjusted revenues of 161 billion and 579 billion yuan for the quarter and the year, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 35.5% and 5.2% [1]. - The growth in revenue was driven by self-operated, asset management, and brokerage businesses, with Q4 2024 brokerage revenue increasing by 48.9% year-on-year [2]. - The capital market sentiment has improved, contributing to a year-on-year increase in self-operated business revenue for the full year [3]. - Regulatory policies have tightened, leading to pressure on investment banking and credit businesses, with significant declines in underwriting volumes [4]. - The company anticipates continued growth in market activity due to supportive policies, projecting net profit growth of 24.5% for 2025 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved adjusted revenues of 161 billion yuan, with a net profit of 49 billion yuan, reflecting a 48.3% increase year-on-year [1]. - For the full year, the company reported revenues of 579 billion yuan and a net profit of 217 billion yuan, marking a 10.1% increase year-on-year [1]. Brokerage and Asset Management - Brokerage revenue for Q4 2024 was 35.6 billion yuan, up 48.9% year-on-year, driven by increased market trading activity [2]. - Asset management revenue reached 30.3 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a 23.5% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in non-monetary public fund management [2]. Self-Operated Business - The self-operated business generated revenues of 46.8 billion yuan in Q4 2024, with a full-year total of 263.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.6% increase year-on-year [3]. - The company's financial asset scale reached 861.8 billion yuan, with an investment return rate of 3.06% [3]. Investment Banking and Credit Business - Investment banking revenue for Q4 2024 was 13.4 billion yuan, but the full-year revenue declined by 33.9% to 41.6 billion yuan due to stricter regulatory policies [4]. - Credit business revenue fell sharply, with Q4 2024 revenue at 1.6 billion yuan, down 78.1% year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - The company expects continued market activity growth supported by favorable policies, with revised net profit forecasts of 270 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 24.5% year-on-year increase [5].