非領令部 2025 年 08 月 26 日 长城证券 (002939) 自营驱动业绩水平大幅提升，资管规模稳步增长 投告原因: 有业绩公布需要点评 (维持) | 市场数据: | 2025年08月26日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 12.08 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 14.07/6.45 | | 市净率 | 1.6 | | 股息率% (分红/股价) | 1.08 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) | 43,520 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,868.38/12,473.17 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025年06月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产 (元) | 7.72 | | 资产负债率% | 75.21 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 4,034/3,603 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | | 年内股价与大盘对比走势： 长城证券 沪深300指数 相关研究 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 串兆邦 A0230 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Wu Zongmin, the president of China Merchants Securities, ranked third in the comprehensive securities firms leadership power TOP list, which recognizes outstanding contributions and influence of leaders in the securities industry [1] - The TOP list is initiated by Sina Finance to honor the achievements of securities leaders over the past year, based on a multi-dimensional evaluation system that includes industry data, peer evaluations, and online presence, with a focus on creating economic and social value [1] Group 2 - Under Wu Zongmin's leadership, China Merchants Securities has demonstrated a cultural characteristic of "striving for innovation and long-term development," with stable growth in proprietary business and significant progress in wealth management transformation [5] - The company's financial asset scale increased to 378.82 billion yuan, with bond investments accounting for 69.81% of trading financial assets, and the investment yield rose by 0.57 percentage points to 2.57% [6] - The wealth management business saw a substantial increase in client scale, with the number of wealth management clients reaching 627,500, a year-on-year growth of 16.66%, and high-net-worth clients increasing by 9.46% [7] Group 3 - The investment banking business faced significant pressure, with net income from investment banking dropping to 856 million yuan, a decline of over 30%, while bond underwriting saw a 30.91% increase to 426.52 billion yuan [8] - China Merchants Securities' investment banking and bond business ratings improved from B to A, making it one of the fastest-rated firms among the 50 listed securities firms [9] - The company plans to continue focusing on technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance as part of its new five-year strategic plan [9]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 41.466 billion yuan (+13.37%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.351 billion yuan (+20.40%) [1] - The basic earnings per share increased to 1.62 yuan (+20.00%), while the return on equity (ROE) for 2023 was 9.24%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points year-on-year [1] Wealth Management - The company reported net income from brokerage services of 6.447 billion yuan (+8.19%) in 2024 [2] - By the end of 2024, the company had 1,776.39 billion yuan in cash, a year-on-year increase of 18.17% due to increased client funds [2] - The number of financial products sold (excluding cash management products) reached 16,760, an increase of 51.40%, with a sales scale of 503.991 billion yuan (+13.63%) [2] - The company maintained a leading position in public fund sales, with significant holdings in various fund categories [2] Investment Banking - The company achieved net income from investment banking of 2.097 billion yuan (-30.95%) in 2024, with equity underwriting reaching 54.897 billion yuan (-39.87%) [3] - The company ranked second in the industry for IPO and refinancing projects, participating in two of the top ten IPOs and two of the top ten refinancing projects [3] - Bond underwriting reached 12,960.48 billion yuan (+3.12%), ranking third in the industry [3] Asset Management - The company reported net income from asset management of 4.146 billion yuan (-2.58%) [4] - The total asset management scale grew significantly to 556.267 billion yuan (+16.98%), driven by increases in collective and single asset management [4] - The company's fund subsidiary, Southern Fund, managed assets totaling 2.47 trillion yuan (+30.54%), while Huatai-PineBridge managed 688.208 billion yuan (+72.82%) [4] Proprietary Trading - The company generated 14.5 billion yuan (+24.24%) in proprietary trading income, which was a major driver of performance growth [5] - The proportion of bond investments increased, accounting for 56.86% of the investment portfolio, while equity investments slightly decreased [5] International Business - International business revenue surged to 14.34 billion yuan (+80.93%), accounting for 34.58% of total revenue [6] - The company ranked third in the market for Hong Kong IPO sponsorship projects [6] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a gradually improving economic environment and ongoing reforms in the capital market, which may lead to valuation increases [7] - Forecasted basic earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 1.73 yuan, 1.80 yuan, and 1.95 yuan, respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CITIC Securities [2] Core Views - CITIC Securities reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 17.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.55 billion yuan, up 32.0% year-on-year [7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) for Q1 2025 was 2.37%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points compared to the same period last year [7] - The report highlights the growth in brokerage and proprietary trading businesses, with a significant increase in trading activity and client deposits [9] - The investment analysis suggests that the company is well-positioned for future growth, with a projected net profit of 241 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year increase [9] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For 2025, the expected revenue is 70.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.97% [8] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 24.13 billion yuan, representing an 11.17% increase compared to 2024 [8] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of revenue sources, with brokerage accounting for 20.6%, investment banking 6.1%, and asset management 15.9% of total revenue [9] - The company's financial investment assets and trading financial assets reached 922.8 billion yuan and 777.2 billion yuan respectively by the end of Q1 2025, showing a growth of 7.1% and 12.5% year-to-date [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.56 billion yuan in Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 84.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.7% [5][7] - The company's weighted average ROE for Q1 2025 was 2.44%, an increase of 1.14 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5] - The report highlights strong growth in both fee-based and proprietary businesses, with a significant increase in net investment income [7] Summary by Sections Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 41.65 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.43% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 11.29 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.50% [6] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of revenue sources, indicating a strong performance in brokerage and investment banking [7] Business Performance - The brokerage business generated 1.92 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 53.1% [7] - Investment banking revenue reached 150 million yuan, up 59.5% year-on-year, with notable growth in IPO and refinancing activities [7] - Proprietary investment net income was 3.16 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 94.0% [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong institutional business line, with a focus on enhancing its service platform for institutional clients [7] - The report emphasizes the company's competitive position in the bond underwriting market, with a market share of 4.7% [7] - The company is expected to maintain its growth trajectory through effective cost control and strategic investments [7]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of China Merchants Securities for 2024 shows a steady increase in revenue and net profit, driven by brokerage and proprietary trading, while the first quarter of 2025 indicates pressure on investment income due to market adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.39 billion, up 18.5% year-on-year [1]. - The breakdown of 2024 main revenue includes brokerage at 6.18 billion (up 11.8%), investment banking at 0.86 billion (down 34.2%), asset management at 0.72 billion (up 0.6%), net interest at 1.13 billion (down 21.9%), net investment at 9.65 billion (up 42.2%), and long equity investment at 1.48 billion (down 3.4%) [1]. - For Q1 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.31 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.0% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 28.7% [1]. Group 2: Asset and Investment Metrics - As of the end of 2024, total assets were 721.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, and net assets were 130.2 billion, up 6.7% [2]. - By the end of Q1 2025, total assets decreased to 661.3 billion, down 8.3% from the beginning of the year, while net assets increased slightly to 131.6 billion, up 1.1% [2]. - The investment net income for 2024 was 9.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.2%, with an investment return rate of 2.56%, up 0.57 percentage points [2]. Group 3: Brokerage and Client Growth - The brokerage business showed robust performance with 19.3 million trading clients, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, and managed client assets of 4.27 trillion, up 14.8% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s market share in stock-based funds was 4.51%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points year-on-year, while the net income from agency buying business was 5.33 billion, up 16.2% year-on-year [3]. - In Q1 2025, brokerage revenue reached 1.97 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.0% [3]. Group 4: Public Fund Performance - In 2024, the public fund business contributed stable profits, with China Merchants Fund achieving revenue of 5.31 billion (up 0.3%) and net profit of 1.65 billion (down 5.9%) [4]. - By the end of 2024, the non-money market fund AUM for China Merchants Fund was 561.5 billion, down 2.4% from the beginning of the year [4]. - For Q1 2025, the long equity investment revenue was 0.37 billion, up 6.1% year-on-year, while the non-money market fund AUM for China Merchants Fund was 551.1 billion, down 1.9% from the beginning of the year [4].