所长寄语 任志强 华福证券总裁助理兼研究所所长 当前，资本市场在高度不确定的宏观环境中运行，专业的宏观研究已成为机构客户优化持 仓结构、管理组合风险的核心工具。而宏观团队作为研究所的"中枢神经"，其战略价值不仅在 于独立输出研究成果，更在于打通研究链条上下游：通过宏观视角校准行业研究的政策敏感 度，为策略团队提供资产配置的底层逻辑，同时联动各行业团队，构建多维度分析体系。这种 协同能力，正是研究所构建差异化竞争力的关键内核。 陈兴博士拥有十余年深耕宏观研究的积淀，兼具工科实证思维与金融理论纵深。此次加 盟，他将牵头搭建三大研究矩阵：国内实体经济、金融流动性和资产配置、海外经济。期待陈 兴博士能够带领团队，始终秉持"大道至简"的研究理念，多写落地的结论，以清晰框架解构经 济迷局。既为客户创造可验证的投资价值，更为研究所打造差异化的研究竞争力提供战略支 点，同时为内部服务赋能，助力提升公司综合竞争力。 回顾自己的研究成绩，我也发现，那些得到市场好评如潮的成果，往往并没有多么复杂的逻 辑，核心主线也就三言两语能讲得清楚。掺杂太多支线分析，纠结于研究形式上的完备，常常是 得不偿失。前辈领导们的珠玉在前，虽还未能至，但 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of investing in oneself as the best form of investment, especially in the context of modern societal challenges and technological advancements [7][9]. - It highlights the shift from external opportunities to internal development, suggesting that personal capabilities and virtues are fundamental to long-term success [9]. Group 1: Author's Background and Philosophy - Dr. Du Yu, the founder of Weikezhi, has a diverse background as a musician, writer, investor, and researcher, illustrating the concept of "investing in people" through his own experiences [4]. - His academic journey includes degrees from Wuhan University, Peking University, and the Chinese University of Hong Kong, culminating in a PhD from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, showcasing a commitment to continuous learning and self-investment [4]. Group 2: Integration of Traditional Wisdom - Dr. Du uses the "Huangdi Neijing" as an example to demonstrate that ancient texts encompass a wide range of knowledge, including music, geography, and psychology, which can provide holistic insights for modern challenges [6]. - He advocates for the integration of traditional wisdom into contemporary practices, arguing that ancient philosophies can help navigate the complexities of modern life [10][12]. Group 3: Practical Applications and Recommendations - The article suggests that individuals should focus on practical experiences and learn from those who have achieved tangible results, rather than solely relying on theoretical knowledge [12]. - Dr. Du encourages the reading of classical texts as a means to cultivate a stable mindset in the fast-paced AI era, positioning traditional wisdom as a "ballast" for the soul [12]. Group 4: Future Directions - Weikezhi aims to explore the intersection of artificial intelligence and humanistic values, promoting comprehensive personal development and providing practical solutions for growth [14]. - The organization is committed to disseminating Chinese traditional wisdom globally, enhancing cross-cultural exchanges and revitalizing ancient knowledge in modern contexts [12][14].

Core Insights - The latest paper challenges the mainstream approach of diffusion models by suggesting that instead of predicting noise, models should directly generate clean images [1][2] - The research emphasizes a return to the fundamental purpose of diffusion models, which is denoising, rather than complicating the architecture with additional components [2][3] Summary by Sections Diffusion Models Misuse - Current mainstream diffusion models often predict noise or a mixture of images and noise, rather than focusing on generating clean images [3][5] - This approach creates a significant challenge, as predicting noise requires a large model capacity to capture the high-dimensional noise, leading to potential training failures [5][6] Proposed Solution: JiT Architecture - The paper introduces a simplified architecture called JiT (Just image Transformers), which directly predicts clean images without relying on complex components like VAE or tokenizers [7][8] - JiT operates purely from pixel data, treating the task as a denoising problem, which aligns better with the original design of neural networks [6][8] Experimental Results - Experimental results indicate that while traditional noise prediction models struggle in high-dimensional spaces, JiT maintains robustness and achieves superior performance [10] - JiT demonstrates excellent scalability, maintaining high-quality generation even with larger input dimensions without increasing network width [11][13] - The architecture achieved state-of-the-art FID scores of 1.82 and 1.78 on ImageNet datasets of 256x256 and 512x512, respectively [13][14] Author Background - The lead author, Li Tianhong, is a notable researcher in representation learning and generative models, having previously collaborated with renowned researcher He Kaiming [15][17]

Core Viewpoint - The articles emphasize the importance of simplicity and durability in design and functionality, using the metaphor of a "weight" that remains intact over time to illustrate the value of straightforward, reliable solutions in modern life [1][2][3] Group 1: Simplicity in Design - The concept of "秤砣不坏" (the weight does not break) highlights that simple structures are more durable compared to complex ones, which tend to fail more easily [1][2] - Modern products, such as toilets and cars, have become increasingly complex, leading to higher maintenance costs and potential failures during critical moments [1][2] - The articles advocate for a return to simplicity in product design, focusing on core functionalities rather than unnecessary features [2][3] Group 2: Practicality and Reliability - The discussion points out that true effectiveness often lies in straightforward solutions, which are more reliable and easier to maintain [3] - The notion of "大道至简" (the great way is simple) suggests that achieving goals should not involve convoluted processes or excessive embellishments [2][3] - The articles encourage a mindset that prioritizes essential functions and durability over complexity, which can lead to waste and inefficiency [1][2][3]

Core Insights - The essence of futures trading is to pursue simplicity, as complexity can lead to instability in a market that is already intricate [1][3][12] Group 1: Simplicity in Trading - Achieving simplicity in trading requires a certain level of understanding and self-awareness, which is a challenging process [3] - Successful traders maintain a distance from the market, ensuring they are neither too close nor too far [4] - Emotional interference must be eliminated to enhance the chances of success, and the focus should not solely be on trading [4] Group 2: Technical Simplification - Technical analysis should be simplified, avoiding complex software and excessive information [5] - The process of trading should involve reducing unnecessary elements, which leads to a deeper understanding of the market [5] - Self-discipline and awareness of personal limits are crucial traits of successful traders [5] Group 3: System Complexity and Errors - A trading system that is overly complex can lead to execution difficulties and poor fault tolerance [7][9] - The belief that adding more conditions to a trading system increases accuracy is a misconception, as market movements are inherently unpredictable [7][10] Group 4: Investment Philosophy - The principle of "大道至简" (the greatest path is the simplest) emphasizes that valuable insights are often the most straightforward [10] - Successful investors, like Warren Buffett, focus on risk avoidance and capital preservation as the core of their trading strategy [10][12] - Many investors overlook the importance of managing risk, leading to significant losses, while seasoned traders prioritize capital protection for reasonable returns [12]