Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The gas prices across various regions remain stable due to sufficient inventory in the US, progress in European storage, and slow recovery in domestic demand [1][10] - The report highlights the gradual implementation of price adjustments in urban gas companies, leading to improved profitability and valuation recovery [38] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy independence and the potential impact of US LNG import tariffs on companies with US gas sources [54][56] Price Tracking - As of September 26, 2025, the weekly price changes for various gas prices are as follows: US HH -0.1%, European TTF +1.2%, East Asia JKM -0.6%, China LNG ex-factory -0.1%, and China LNG CIF -2.1% [10][14] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US decreased by 0.1% week-on-week to 1,117 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand increased by 2.7% to 1,013 billion cubic feet per day [16] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that US natural gas inventory is sufficient, with a week-on-week increase of 750 billion cubic feet to 35,080 billion cubic feet [16] - In Europe, natural gas consumption from January to June 2025 was 2,408 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [19] - Domestic natural gas apparent consumption in China increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 2,832 billion cubic meters from January to August 2025 [25][34] Pricing Mechanism Progress - Nationwide price adjustments have been gradually implemented, with 65% of cities adjusting residential gas prices by an average of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [38] - The report suggests that there is still a 10% room for price gap recovery in urban gas companies [38] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing price adjustments, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [56] - It also highlights the importance of companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [56] - Companies with gas production capabilities, like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings, are suggested for attention due to the increasing uncertainty in US gas imports [56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a cooling trend in temperatures leading to a decrease in US gas prices, while European storage efforts are pushing prices up. Domestic gas prices are also experiencing a decline due to slow demand recovery [5][10] - The supply-demand analysis indicates a slight increase in total gas supply in the US, while demand has decreased slightly. European gas prices have risen due to storage efforts, and domestic gas prices have also fallen [15][16] - The report emphasizes the ongoing progress in price adjustments across various cities, which is expected to enhance profitability for city gas companies and support valuation recovery [35] Summary by Sections Price Tracking - As of August 22, 2025, US HH gas prices decreased by 3.1%, while European TTF prices increased by 7.6%. Domestic LNG prices fell by 1.7% [10][12] Supply and Demand Analysis - US total gas supply increased by 0.4% week-on-week to 1,126 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand decreased by 1.2% to 1,061 billion cubic feet per day. European gas consumption for the first five months of 2025 was 2,180 billion cubic meters, up 6.6% year-on-year [15][16] Price Adjustment Progress - Nationwide, 64% of cities have implemented residential price adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter. The report suggests that there is still a 10% room for price gap recovery [35] Important Announcements - The report notes significant mid-year performance announcements from various gas companies, indicating mixed results in revenue and profit growth [41] Important Events - The report mentions a reduction in the US LNG import tariff from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of US gas imports [42][44] - It also discusses the EU's agreement to provide greater flexibility in natural gas storage targets, allowing for a 10% deviation from the 90% storage goal [49] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing price mechanism adjustments, particularly those with strong long-term contracts and flexible operations [5][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a rise in US gas prices due to warmer temperatures in August, while domestic gas prices are expected to decline amid slow demand recovery and intensified competition between sea and land sources [5][10] - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in pricing mechanisms and the potential for cost reductions in downstream gas companies, which may lead to improved profitability and valuation recovery [37][50] Price Tracking - As of August 8, 2025, US HH gas prices increased by 1.5% week-on-week, while European TTF prices decreased by 2.7%, and domestic LNG prices fell by 3.8% [5][10] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US decreased by 1.1% week-on-week to 1,119 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand fell by 6.5% to 1,025 billion cubic feet per day [14][27] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that China's apparent natural gas consumption decreased by 0.2% year-on-year to 2,103 billion cubic feet in the first half of 2025, attributed to warmer winter conditions in 2024 affecting heating demand [27][28] - Domestic LNG import prices averaged 3,819 yuan per ton in June 2025, reflecting a 3.3% increase month-on-month but an 8% decrease year-on-year [27][31] Pricing Mechanism Progress - The report indicates that 64% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [37] - The new pricing mechanism for provincial natural gas pipeline transportation aims to reduce costs and enhance efficiency, with a permitted return rate lower than current provincial levels [50][51] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can benefit from cost reductions and pricing adjustments, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, among others [53] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [53]