期货研究报告|能源专题报告 2025-10-23 伊朗与伊拉克天然气市场展望 研究院 能源化工组 研究员 潘翔 投资咨询号：Z0013188 康远宁 0755-23991175 kangyuanning@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3049404 投资咨询号：Z0015842 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 ■ 伊朗资源充裕却受制裁与内需挤压，出口潜力受限 伊朗拥有全球第二大天然气储量，约 1200 万亿立方英尺，占全球 16%，但长期制裁、 融资受限及技术瓶颈制约出口能力。2024–2025 年，国内能源危机加剧，夏季电力缺 口达 20 吉瓦，冬季气源短缺约 3 亿立方米/日，工业产能利用率降至 65%–85%，供需矛 盾持续恶化。 内容摘要 0755-82767160 panxiang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3023104 | 目录 | | --- | ■ 伊拉克供需失衡依赖进口，正加速推进气源多元化 伊拉克 2023 年已探明储量达 131 万亿立方英尺，约占全球总储量的 2%以及中东地区 的 4%，却因上游投资不足与基础设施薄弱，难以满足快速增长的电力需求。其对外部 ...

2024年，"土耳其溪"管道对欧天然气出口量同比增长23%，总量达167亿立方米，其中对匈天然 气出口量创下86亿立方米历史纪录。此外，对土管道天然气供应量也增长2.6%至210亿立方米。 2025年1-8月俄通过"土耳其溪"管道对欧天然气出口量同比增长7% 俄塔斯社网站9月2日报道，据欧洲天然气运输系统运营商网络数据，2025年1-8月，俄通过"土 耳其溪"管道对欧天然气出口量达115亿立方米，同比增长7%。其中，8月出口量为15.6亿立方米，虽较7 月环比下降2%，但较2024年8月同比增长5.5%。8月，该管道对欧方向的日均负荷量达5020万立方米， 同比增长5.5%。这条穿越黑海连接俄土的输气管道年输送能力315亿立方米，在经乌克兰过境天然气运 输终止后，已成为俄对欧天然气出口的唯一活跃路线。 （原标题：2025年1-8月俄通过"土耳其溪"管道对欧天然气出口量同比增长7%） ...

Core Viewpoint - Algeria is nearing a final agreement with American energy giants ExxonMobil and Chevron for the joint development of its shale gas resources, which will enhance its natural gas production and export capabilities, solidifying its position as a key supplier to Europe [1] Group 1: Algeria's Energy Strategy - Algeria is actively promoting natural gas pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports [1] - The chairman of Algeria's energy regulatory agency, Alnaft, indicated that technical terms have been largely agreed upon, with final negotiations on commercial terms ongoing [1] - The introduction of American energy companies is expected to demonstrate Algeria's resource potential [1] Group 2: Shale Gas Development - Algeria aims to increase its production and export volumes through the development of shale gas, leveraging its significant conventional gas reserves and being the third-largest holder of shale gas reserves globally [1] - The country is focusing on enhancing its natural gas supply to Europe, especially following the disruption of Russian gas supplies due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 3: European Market Dynamics - Europe is accelerating imports of pipeline gas and LNG from Africa, with Italian energy giant Eni initiating multiple fast-track projects in the region [1] - The UK’s Grain LNG terminal signed a ten-year agreement with Algeria's state oil company Sonatrach to extend its LNG storage and transshipment capacity starting January 2029 [1]

Group 1 - TC Energy predicts that Canada may become the largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter to Asia [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from the Paris Compliance Investors Organization indicates that the idea of restarting LNG export projects on Canada's East Coast is no longer viable due to structural changes in the global LNG market [1][2]. Group 1: Canadian LNG Export Challenges - The Canadian government is seeking alternative export markets for oil and gas due to tariff threats from the U.S. [1] - Previous LNG export plans, such as the Energy East project and the Quebec GNL project, have been canceled due to lack of approval from provincial and federal governments [1]. - The Quebec government has recently expressed openness to reviving the Quebec LNG project to reduce dependence on U.S. markets [1]. Group 2: Economic Viability Concerns - The cost of the Quebec LNG project is now estimated to be twice the amount assessed in 2018, potentially reaching $23.8 billion [2]. - The demand for natural gas in Europe is decreasing, while Asian markets have easier access to LNG from Canada's West Coast [2]. - New LNG projects in the U.S. and Qatar are expected to suppress the construction of higher-cost projects on Canada's East Coast in the coming three years [2]. Group 3: Alternative Economic Opportunities - The report suggests that Canada should focus on improving electricity integration between the East and West, investing in critical minerals, and developing high-speed passenger rail as more viable economic opportunities than pursuing East Coast LNG transport [2].

Group 1 - Azerbaijan's natural gas exports increased by 3.6% year-on-year from January to May [1]