交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年8月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4 基差 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14850，基差-1055 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年8月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14800，基差-920 偏空 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线上运行 中性 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不如预期、中美贸易摩擦 现货价格 23年全乳胶，不可用于交割，8月21日现货价格上涨 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年8月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14800，基差-835 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 青岛保税区美元报价 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、青岛地区未季节性去库 • 风险点 • 世界经 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年8月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 多空因素及主要风险点 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14750，基差-1110 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、青岛地区未季节性去库 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增 ...

Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, with strong foreign spot prices and rising domestic inventories. The tire operating rate is at a high level, and market sentiment dominates short - term trading. The overall situation presents a mix of long and short factors [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Hints - The fundamentals show that supply is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and the tire operating rate is high, presenting a neutral situation. The basis is - 45 with a spot price of 14850, also neutral. The exchange inventory has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory has increased week - on - week and year - on - year, remaining neutral. The price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend, but the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. Short - term trading is dominated by market sentiment [4]. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption is at a high level. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline. The external environment is bearish [4][6]. - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, while the Qingdao area inventory has increased slightly [14][17]. - **Import**: Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have seasonally rebounded, and tire production has reached a new high for the same period, but tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on July 21, and there is a US dollar quotation in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone [8]. - **Basis**: The basis weakened on July 21 [35]. Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Bullish Factors**: High downstream consumption, strong raw material prices, and resistant spot prices [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Increasing supply and a bearish external environment [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with increasing supply, strong foreign spot prices, increasing domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates [4] - The basis is -115 with a spot price of 14,550, indicating a bearish signal [4] - The inventory shows a mixed picture, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreasing week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory increasing week - on - week and year - on - year, overall neutral [4] - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content provided in the given text 2. Fundamental Data - Supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level [4] - The 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) spot price rose on July 17 [8] - Import volume has a seasonal decline [20] - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising [23][26] - Tire production is at a new high for the same period [29] - Tire industry exports are seasonally growing [32] 3. Base Difference - The spot price is 14,550, and the basis is - 115, showing a bearish situation [4] - The basis narrowed on July 17 [35] 4. Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory has not changed much recently [14] - The Qingdao area inventory has not changed much recently [17] 5. Long - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, strong raw material prices, and resilient spot prices [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply and a bearish external environment [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot strong, domestic inventory rising, and high tire operating rates [4]. - The basis is - 110 (spot price is 14250), showing a bearish signal [4]. - Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while Qingdao area inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year, overall neutral [4]. - The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish signal [4]. - The main position is net short and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. Fundamental Data Supply and Demand - Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline, which are bullish factors [6]. - Supply is increasing and the external environment is bearish, which are bearish factors [6]. Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 14 [8]. Inventory - Exchange inventory has changed little recently [14]. - Qingdao area inventory has changed little recently [17]. Import - Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally rebounded [23][26]. - Tire production is at a record high for the same period [29]. - Tire industry exports are seasonally increasing [32]. Basis - The basis widened on July 14 [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot prices strong, domestic inventories rising, and tire operating rates at a high level [4]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral. The supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to rise, and tire operating rates are at a high level [4]. - The basis is - 150 with a spot price of 13,800, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year, overall neutral [4]. - The 20 - day line is downward, but the price is running above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4]. - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) was flat on June 20th [8]. - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has changed little recently [14]. The Qingdao area inventory has also changed little recently [17]. - **Import**: The import volume has seasonally declined [20]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, while tire production is at a record high in the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely to Rise**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating of the natural rubber industry is neutral, with some aspects showing a slightly bearish tendency [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level. Market sentiment dominates, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber are as follows: supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is high, rated as neutral; the basis is - 10 with a spot price of 14000, rated as neutral; inventory shows different trends in the exchange and Qingdao area, rated as neutral; the price is above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, rated as neutral; the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions, rated as bearish; market sentiment dominates and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Leverage Factors and Main Risk Points** - **Positive Factors**: High - level downstream consumption, strong raw material prices, and resilient spot prices [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Increasing supply, rising market inventory, and a bearish external environment [6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on June 18, and the US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was also involved [8]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory has changed little recently, and Qingdao area inventory has also changed little recently [14][17]. - **Import**: Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][29][32]. - **Basis**: The basis narrowed on June 18 [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with supply starting to increase, foreign spot prices being strong, domestic inventories beginning to rise, and tire operating rates at a high level. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot being strong, domestic inventories rising, and tire operating rates at a high level. The basis is 265 with the spot price at 13850, showing a bullish signal. Inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while those in Qingdao decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, overall neutral. The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in shorts, showing bearish signals. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4] Fundamentals Data Supply and Demand - Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is at a high level. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline. Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, while tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [4][6][23][26][29][32] Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on June 12. The basis widened on June 12, with the futures at a premium [8][35] Inventory - The exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory have changed little recently. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year [14][17][4] Import - The import volume is seasonally falling [20] Multi - empty Factors - Bullish factors include high downstream consumption, strong raw material prices, and resistant spot prices. Bearish factors include increased supply, increased market inventories, and a bearish external environment [6]