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如何理解央行利率比价
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-11-18 00:07
Overview - The report discusses the recent performance of various sectors in the market, highlighting the strong performance of the chemical, power equipment, and oil sectors, while the beauty care and automotive sectors lag behind [1][3]. Fixed Income - The report analyzes the central bank's interest rate pricing relationships, indicating that current rates are within a reasonable range. A decrease in deposit rates is expected to further widen the space for monetary policy easing, potentially lowering social financing costs [5][6]. Financial Engineering - The convertible bond market is experiencing high valuation fluctuations, with a pricing deviation indicator of 7.80%, suggesting a low long-term allocation value for convertible bonds. Investors are advised to reduce exposure to equity-linked convertible bonds to mitigate risks [3][4]. Chemical Industry - The report highlights the AIDC power management solutions, emphasizing the need for new power supply architectures due to increased power demands from CPUs and GPUs. Solid-state transformers (SST) are identified as a potential solution, with several companies mentioned as key players in this space [7][8]. Power Equipment - Significant advancements in perovskite solar cells have been noted, with improvements in efficiency and stability. The report indicates that the industrialization process is accelerating, supported by government policies aimed at promoting advanced photovoltaic technologies [9][10]. Media Sector - The media sector is experiencing a downturn, with a 1.44% decline attributed to the tech sector's pullback. However, there is optimism regarding gaming and AI applications, with specific companies highlighted for their potential in these areas [11][12]. Bilibili Inc. - Bilibili reported a revenue of 7.7 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a 5.2% year-on-year increase. The company has seen growth in its user base, with daily active users reaching 117 million, up 9% year-on-year. The advertising revenue growth has accelerated, driven by advancements in AI and user engagement [13][14][15].
固定收益专题:如何理解央行利率比价
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-11-17 12:28
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Currently, various interest rate parity relationships are generally within a reasonable range, which provides further room for subsequent monetary easing. With the decline of deposit rates, it will further broaden the space for subsequent monetary policy easing to drive down the social financing cost [4][29]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comparison between Central Bank Interest Rates and Market Interest Rates - At the beginning of this year, the market interest rate deviated significantly from the policy rate, but it has now returned to the normal level. The DR007 rate has gradually fallen back to near the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate [1][9]. - In a smooth interest rate transmission mechanism, short - term money market interest rates revolve around the policy rate center and affect the overall market interest rate level through the financial system [1][9]. Comparison between Commercial Banks' Asset - side and Liability - side Interest Rates - Deposit rates and lending rates have been declining in tandem, which is expected to open up more policy operation space. Before 2024, the trends of deposit and lending rates diverged, but after 2024, the deposit rate turned downward, and the pressure on the narrowing net interest margin has been relieved to some extent [2][12]. Comparison of Yields of Different Types of Assets - **Long - term**: The comprehensive loan yield after deducting non - performing loans and taxes is highly consistent with the 5 - year Treasury bond yield. In the second quarter of this year, the weighted average loan interest rate was 3.29%, and the calculated weighted average loan yield was 1.52%, close to the 1.54% average yield of 5 - year Treasury bonds in the same period. Similar results can be obtained for mortgage loans [2][14]. - **Short - term**: The yield trends of different assets at the short - end are similar, with small spreads, indicating a stable parity relationship [2][17]. Comparison of Interest Rates of Different Terms The previously abnormal yield curve has now returned to a normal state. The 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond spread is currently around 40bps, which is basically at a normal historical level [3][20]. Comparison of Interest Rates of Different Risks - Subsequent reduction of lending rates may require a decline in bond yields. Enterprise lending rates cannot be lower than government bond yields such as Treasury bonds and local bonds [4][22]. - High - interest 30 - year local bonds may restrict the downward movement of lending rates. Considering tax factors, the loan lower - limit determined by government bonds may be higher, which can reduce competitive low - price lending by banks but may also limit the decline in financing costs to some extent [4][25].