Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The lithium carbonate market will continue the pattern of tight supply - demand balance. The escalation of the Middle - East situation has triggered capital panic, leading to an oscillating correction [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate dropped by the daily limit to 150,860 yuan/ton due to geopolitical influence. The trading volume nearly doubled compared to the previous period, the open interest decreased, and the net long - short ratio increased significantly. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 441 lots to 37,755 lots [2]. - On the spot side, the average price of SMM electric carbon is 161,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric and industrial carbon remains at 3,500 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt producers are reluctant to sell, while downstream material factories are more willing to buy at lower prices, with active market inquiries and significantly increased trading enthusiasm [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the prices of various raw materials increased compared to February 13. The SMM weekly operating rate rose to 49.75% (a 3.73% increase compared to February 12), and the weekly total output increased to 21,822 tons (+1,638 tons), indicating a marginal increase in supply [3]. - **Demand**: Demand showed differentiation. Last week, lithium iron phosphate production and inventory increased, while ternary production decreased and inventory was reduced. As of February 8, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In February, the NBS lithium - battery output was 169.01GWh, a 12.9% month - on - month decrease. Energy storage cells had strong production and sales and low inventory, being a structural highlight [3]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the SMM four - location sample social inventory decreased by 1,690 tons to 44,520 tons, and the sample weekly total inventory decreased to 100,093 tons, at a relatively low level. The total inventory days decreased to 28.2 days, maintaining an overall tight - balance pattern [3]. 3.3 Macro - policy and Environment - **Domestic Policy**: Subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. The management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries raise the recycling threshold, eliminate backward production capacity, optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term, and raise the cost - support center. The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference work together to support long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - **Domestic Macro - environment**: The central bank's structural interest rate cuts strengthen the long - term positive atmosphere [4]. - **International Situation**: In February, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and the White House's 15% temporary tariff policy improved the marginal profit of exports, benefiting demand during the window period. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased risk - aversion sentiment and greater fluctuations in the US dollar index, which may intensify short - term price fluctuations. However, its impact is subject to the dominance of the tight supply - demand balance pattern in the lithium market, being a short - term emotional disturbance rather than a trend reversal [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that lithium carbonate will operate strongly at a high level, and attention should be focused on cost and marginal changes in supply and demand [2][4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Market - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 181,520 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main funds continued, the long - short ratio decreased month - on - month, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly by 730 tons to 28,156 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 171,000 yuan/ton. The trading market was active last week. In the spot market, upstream producers were more willing to sell, with some still holding back supply. Downstream buyers had a mix of inventory building and waiting, and scattered purchases slowed down after the price increase. Overall, transactions were mainly based on demand [2] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Supply side**: Last week, the raw material market showed a differentiated trend. Overseas lithium spodumene remained stable with a slight increase, while domestic spot lithium ore prices generally declined. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 50.99% (- 1.7%), and the operating rate of each process route decreased month - on - month due to maintenance plans. The total output was 22,217 tons (- 388 tons), with a slight decrease in supply [3] - **Demand side**: There was a significant structural differentiation. Last week, the output of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventories were reduced. The output of SMM power cells decreased slightly. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales increased to 55.6%, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [3] - **Inventory**: Last week, the social inventory of the four - place sample of SMM increased by 2% (+ 860 tons) month - on - month, the sample weekly inventory decreased slightly by 0.7% (- 783 tons) month - on - month, and the total inventory days were 27.8 days. The inventory days of the upstream and downstream increased to 5.1 days and 9.6 days respectively, and the inventory days of other links decreased to 13.1 days, showing a significant differentiation in the inventory structure [3] Macro - policy Level - **Demand side**: Multiple incentives such as subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity - **Supply side**: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term, and raise the cost support center - **Industrial planning**: The industrial plan for Qinghai Salt Lake, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference have formed synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate in a volatile and upward - trending manner, with a focus on cost and marginal changes in supply and demand [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range and closed at 168,780 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main funds continued, the long - short ratio decreased month - on - month, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 230 tons to 28,886 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 164,500 yuan/ton [1] Supply - side Situation - Last week, raw material prices increased by over 17% month - on - month, strengthening cost support. This week, the total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 50.99% (-1.7%), and the operating rates of various process routes decreased month - on - month due to maintenance plans. The total production of SMM was 22,217 tons (-388 tons), with a slight decrease in supply [2] Demand - side Situation - There was a significant structural differentiation on the demand side. Last week, the production of SMM iron - lithium and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory was destocked. The production of SMM power cells decreased slightly. As of January 18, the penetration rate of SMM new - energy vehicle sales rose to 55.6%, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [2] Inventory Situation - The sample social inventory in four regions of SMM increased by 3.1% (+1,290 tons) month - on - month, the sample weekly inventory was destocked again, decreasing slightly by 0.7% (-783 tons) month - on - month. The total inventory days were 27.8 days, with the upstream and downstream inventory days increasing to 5.1 days and 9.6 days respectively, and the inventory days in other links decreasing to 13.1 days. The inventory structure showed significant differentiation [2] Macro - policy Situation - On the demand side, multiple incentives such as subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries, which will optimize the domestic supply structure and raise the cost support center in the long term. Industrial plans such as the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year" plan for energy storage, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cuts indirectly strengthen the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [3]