Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The lithium carbonate market will continue the pattern of tight supply - demand balance. The escalation of the Middle - East situation has triggered capital panic, leading to an oscillating correction [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate dropped by the daily limit to 150,860 yuan/ton due to geopolitical influence. The trading volume nearly doubled compared to the previous period, the open interest decreased, and the net long - short ratio increased significantly. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 441 lots to 37,755 lots [2]. - On the spot side, the average price of SMM electric carbon is 161,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric and industrial carbon remains at 3,500 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt producers are reluctant to sell, while downstream material factories are more willing to buy at lower prices, with active market inquiries and significantly increased trading enthusiasm [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the prices of various raw materials increased compared to February 13. The SMM weekly operating rate rose to 49.75% (a 3.73% increase compared to February 12), and the weekly total output increased to 21,822 tons (+1,638 tons), indicating a marginal increase in supply [3]. - **Demand**: Demand showed differentiation. Last week, lithium iron phosphate production and inventory increased, while ternary production decreased and inventory was reduced. As of February 8, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In February, the NBS lithium - battery output was 169.01GWh, a 12.9% month - on - month decrease. Energy storage cells had strong production and sales and low inventory, being a structural highlight [3]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the SMM four - location sample social inventory decreased by 1,690 tons to 44,520 tons, and the sample weekly total inventory decreased to 100,093 tons, at a relatively low level. The total inventory days decreased to 28.2 days, maintaining an overall tight - balance pattern [3]. 3.3 Macro - policy and Environment - **Domestic Policy**: Subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. The management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries raise the recycling threshold, eliminate backward production capacity, optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term, and raise the cost - support center. The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference work together to support long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - **Domestic Macro - environment**: The central bank's structural interest rate cuts strengthen the long - term positive atmosphere [4]. - **International Situation**: In February, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and the White House's 15% temporary tariff policy improved the marginal profit of exports, benefiting demand during the window period. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased risk - aversion sentiment and greater fluctuations in the US dollar index, which may intensify short - term price fluctuations. However, its impact is subject to the dominance of the tight supply - demand balance pattern in the lithium market, being a short - term emotional disturbance rather than a trend reversal [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the global natural rubber market is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year due to increased consumption driven by the growth of the automotive industry in emerging and developed economies. The supply of natural rubber will enter a low - production season in March, while the downstream demand for tires is expected to see strong repair momentum in March, which will support the rubber price. It is predicted that the rubber price will show a strong and volatile trend in March. For butadiene rubber, although there are more maintenance plans in March and downstream demand is supportive, the inventory level suppresses the price, and it is expected to show a volatile and slightly strong trend [109][110]. Summary by Directory 1. Price - **Futures price**: From January 30 to February 27, 2026, the RU main contract increased by 795 yuan/ton, the NR main contract increased by 530 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract decreased by 760 yuan/ton [5]. - **Basis**: During the same period, the RU main contract basis increased by 5 yuan/ton, the NR main contract basis increased by 74 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract basis increased by 360 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly spread**: The RU - NR spread on February 27, 2026 was 3303 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 244 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 829 yuan/ton [12]. - **Price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber**: The price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber has fallen from a high level, but the substitution effect of synthetic rubber still exists [17]. - **Processing profit**: The processing profit of Thai standard rubber on February 26, 2026 was - 115.15 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 140.81 US dollars/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 151.68 US dollars/ton [18]. - **Production cost and profit of butadiene rubber**: On February 26, 2026, the production cost of butadiene rubber was 13006 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 412 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 824 yuan/ton; the production profit was - 6 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 412 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 76 yuan/ton [21]. 2. Supply - **Global natural rubber production**: In 2025, the global natural rubber production increased by 1.4%, and it is expected to increase by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons in 2026. The overall demand in 2026 is expected to increase by 1.7% to 15.6 million tons [25]. - **Production in major producing areas**: In March, Southeast Asian main producing areas enter the low - production season. The production in major producing areas such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam has maintained a relatively stable trend [29][33]. - **Export volume**: The cumulative year - on - year increase in the export volume of major producing countries has declined. For example, Thailand's natural rubber and mixed rubber exports in January 2026 decreased by 10% year - on - year [39]. - **China's import volume**: China's natural rubber import volume has increased year - on - year. In December 2025, the import volume of natural rubber and mixed rubber was 803,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 24.8% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [45]. - **Butadiene supply**: In March, the supply pressure of butadiene increases. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene on February 27, 2026 was 76.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year increase of 0.03%. There are new production capacity plans in 2026 and 2027, and there are also many equipment maintenance plans [49][52][54]. - **Butadiene rubber production**: In January 2026, the production of butadiene rubber was 149,933 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6313 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,067 tons. There are many equipment maintenance plans in 2026, mainly concentrated in the second and third quarters [57][60][61]. - **Butadiene rubber import and export**: In December 2025, the import volume of butadiene rubber was 29,123 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0%; the export volume was 27,971 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 20.1% [62]. 3. Demand - **Automobile policy**: The implementation details of the subsidy for replacing old cars with new ones in 2026 have been released. The policy for new energy vehicles to be exempted from vehicle purchase tax has partially retreated since January 1, 2026. In January 2026, the domestic passenger car retail volume decreased year - on - year, but the export market reached a record high [67]. - **Tire start - up**: In March, tire start - up recovers. The average start - up rate of all - steel tires in February was 36.31%, a decrease of 25.33 percentage points compared with January; the average start - up rate of semi - steel tires was 45.26%, a decrease of 26.55 percentage points compared with January [69]. - **Tire export**: The export demand for tires has weakened. In 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 9.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [76]. - **Automobile production and sales**: The production and sales of automobiles have steadily advanced. The demand for heavy - duty trucks has stabilized and strengthened [77][78]. 4. Inventory - **Qingdao natural rubber inventory**: As of February 6, 2026, the bonded inventory was 106,900 tons, the general trade inventory was 502,400 tons, and the total inventory was 609,300 tons, with an increase of 1200 tons, 16,900 tons, and 18,100 tons respectively compared with January 30 [82]. - **Exchange inventory of natural rubber and No. 20 rubber**: As of February 27, the natural rubber warehouse receipt was 114,470 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 124,980 tons; the No. 20 rubber warehouse receipt was 50,601 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 52,416 tons [85]. - **Butadiene rubber inventory**: As of February 27, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 53,500 tons [87]. 5. Position - **RU main contract total position**: The total position of the RU main contract shows certain fluctuations [90]. - **NR and BR positions**: On February 27, 2026, the total position of natural rubber was 238,035 hands, the total position of No. 20 rubber was 105,322 hands, and the total position of BR was 107,736 hands. Compared with January 30, the position of natural rubber increased by 13,819 hands, the position of No. 20 rubber decreased by 534 hands, and the position of BR decreased by 46,960 hands [92]. 6. Options - **Natural rubber options**: Include historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratio of option trading volume and position [96][100]. - **Butadiene rubber options**: Include historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratio of option trading volume and position [102][105].

Core Viewpoint - The Henan Provincial Department of Commerce, in collaboration with various government departments, has issued the implementation details for the 2026 automobile trade-in subsidy program, aimed at promoting the replacement of old vehicles with new energy and fuel-efficient cars [1] Subsidy Details - For scrapping and updating vehicles in 2026, a subsidy of 12% of the new car sales price, up to 20,000 yuan, will be provided for eligible old vehicles replaced with new energy passenger cars [1] - For scrapping eligible fuel passenger cars and purchasing fuel passenger cars with an engine displacement of 2.0 liters or less, a subsidy of 10% of the new car sales price, up to 15,000 yuan, will be granted [1] - For trade-in updates, a subsidy of 8% of the new car sales price, up to 15,000 yuan, will be available for eligible new energy passenger cars [1] - For trade-in of eligible fuel passenger cars, a subsidy of 6% of the new car sales price, up to 13,000 yuan, will be provided [1] Eligibility Criteria - To qualify for the 2026 automobile scrapping subsidy, the old vehicle must be registered before June 30, 2013, for gasoline cars, before June 30, 2015, for diesel and other fuel cars, or before December 31, 2019, for new energy vehicles [2] - The old vehicle must be registered in the applicant's name before January 8, 2025, and must remain registered in their name until scrapping [2] - The scrapping certificate must be issued by a qualified scrapping enterprise, and both the scrapping and cancellation dates must be after January 1, 2026 [2] Application Process - Applications for both scrapping and trade-in subsidies will be processed online [4] - For scrapping subsidies, applications can be submitted via mobile platforms like WeChat, Alipay, Douyin, and Yunshanfu, or through the national automobile circulation information management system website [4] - For trade-in subsidies, consumers can use the Yunshanfu APP to access the application portal [4] Required Documentation - For scrapping subsidy applications, required documents include identity verification, bank account information, scrapping certificate, and new vehicle sales invoice and registration certificate [5][6] - For trade-in subsidy applications, documents needed include identity verification, bank account information, second-hand vehicle sales invoice, and new vehicle sales invoice and registration certificate [5][6] Application Progress Tracking - Consumers can track the progress of their subsidy applications through the original application channels [6] - Each individual consumer is limited to one subsidy for either scrapping or trade-in, and cannot receive both [6]

Group 1: Automotive Industry Inventory and Subsidies - As of January 2026, the national passenger car inventory in China stands at 3.57 million units, a decrease of 80,000 units from the previous month, but an increase of 580,000 units compared to January 2025, indicating a high inventory level [1] - The inventory supports a sales period of 70 days, which is higher than 65 days in January 2023 and equal to January 2024, but significantly higher than 48 days in January 2025, suggesting considerable inventory pressure [1] - In Henan Province, a new subsidy policy for vehicle trade-ins has been announced, offering up to 20,000 yuan for scrapping old vehicles and purchasing new energy vehicles, and up to 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles, with varying percentages based on the vehicle type [1] Group 2: Collaborations and Factory Developments - BMW Group signed a memorandum of understanding with CATL to enhance collaboration in battery supply chains aimed at reducing carbon footprints in electric vehicles [2] - Great Wall Motors plans to establish a second factory in Brazil's Espírito Santo state, with an annual production capacity of 200,000 vehicles, following the opening of its first factory in the region last year [2] Group 3: Vehicle Recalls - Hyundai, Kia, and BMW are voluntarily recalling over 107,158 vehicles in South Korea due to fire risks associated with manufacturing defects across 37 models [4] - BMW is recalling 58,713 vehicles in the U.S. due to potential damage to electrical wiring during air filter replacements, which could lead to short circuits and fire risks [5] Group 4: Innovations in Automotive Technology - Seres Automotive has published a patent for a method and device for identifying motion sickness, utilizing multi-source signal samples to train a model for predicting passenger discomfort [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new vehicle replacement subsidy policy in Henan for 2026, which provides financial incentives for consumers to trade in old vehicles for new ones, particularly focusing on electric and fuel vehicles [1] Group 1: Subsidy Details - The subsidy for scrapping eligible old vehicles and purchasing qualifying new energy passenger cars is set at 12% of the new car sales price, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan [1] - For scrapping eligible fuel passenger cars and purchasing qualifying new fuel passenger cars, the subsidy is 10% of the new car sales price, with a maximum subsidy of 15,000 yuan [1] - No subsidies will be provided for scrapping new energy passenger cars when purchasing fuel passenger cars [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce announced the second round of the 2026 automobile trade-in lottery will take place on March 2, 2026, to support consumers during the Spring Festival [2] - Consumers can register for the lottery from 7:00 AM to 10:00 PM on weekdays, with the registration channel open regularly, but temporarily closed on the day of the lottery [2] - The lottery results will be available for consumers to check starting March 3, 2026 [2] Group 2 - Eligible participants must have a valid "Motor Vehicle Sales Unified Invoice" issued by a local automobile sales organization and must submit various documents including the new car invoice and old car license plate [3] - The registration process will involve real-time verification of the new vehicle invoice against the national tax authority's platform, and those who fail the verification will not be able to complete their registration [3] - The lottery will be supervised by a third-party notary organization, and participants will be able to check their results through the original registration channel [3] Group 3 - Winners must submit their applications for the automobile scrapping and replacement subsidy by January 10, 2027, and any corrections to their information must be submitted by January 20, 2027 [4] - The subsidy qualification is non-transferable and must be used by the same individual who registered for the lottery [4] - Participants who do not win in the current round will automatically be included in the next round without needing to re-register [4] Group 4 - The funding for the 2026 automobile trade-in subsidy will be implemented on a "total amount control, first-come, first-served" basis, urging interested consumers to register promptly [5] - Consumers who have won the lottery are encouraged to submit their applications in a timely manner to avoid affecting their subsidy claims [5] - Registration will be available every working day from the announcement of the implementation details until the day before the last lottery round [5]

Group 1 - In January 2026, most car manufacturers reported a year-on-year increase in sales but a month-on-month decline, with the automotive consumption index dropping to 31.1 from 97.7 in the previous month [1] - The implementation of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy is expected to stimulate consumer demand for car purchases, despite a gradual reduction in subsidy amounts compared to the previous year [1][2] - Over 20 provinces, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Hubei, have launched specific implementation plans for the "old-for-new" subsidy, with some regions offering up to 20,000 yuan in subsidies [1][2] Group 2 - A series of consumer promotion policies have been introduced at both central and local levels to boost the automotive market, particularly ahead of the traditional sales peak during the Spring Festival [2][4] - Specific subsidies for replacing old vehicles with new energy vehicles and fuel-efficient cars have been announced, with maximum subsidies of 20,000 yuan for new energy vehicles and 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles [2][3] - The "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring' Special Activity Plan" encourages local governments to increase the number of subsidies for the "old-for-new" program during the Spring Festival [4] Group 3 - The automotive market is expected to face a phase of adjustment in February 2026 due to multiple factors, including the impact of the Spring Festival, previous demand exhaustion, and changes in the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy [6] - January 2026 saw a significant decline in retail sales of passenger vehicles, with a year-on-year drop of 28% and a month-on-month drop of 37%, indicating pressure on the market [6] - Despite adjustments in the "old-for-new" policy and the new energy vehicle purchase tax, the overall stimulating effect of these policies on the market remains significant [7] Group 4 - The total sales volume of automobiles in China is projected to reach 34.75 million units in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 1%, while new energy vehicle sales are expected to grow by 15.2% to 19 million units [7] - The ongoing implementation of the "old-for-new" policy is anticipated to stabilize new car market prices, creating a favorable environment for the used car market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing Municipal Government has officially released the 2026 automobile trade-in subsidy policy, which includes two types of subsidies: "scrapping and updating" and "trading and updating" [1][2] Group 1: Subsidy Details - The "scrapping and updating" subsidy offers consumers up to 20,000 yuan for scrapping old vehicles and purchasing new ones, with 12% of the new vehicle's sales price as a subsidy for electric vehicles and 10% for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less [1] - The "trading and updating" subsidy provides up to 15,000 yuan for consumers who sell their old vehicles and purchase new ones, with an 8% subsidy on the sales price for electric vehicles [1] Group 2: Application Process - The application system for the subsidies will open on February 9, 2026, at 10 AM, and consumers can apply online through designated platforms [1] - Consumers must ensure that the materials for scrapping or transferring old vehicles and purchasing new ones are obtained from January 1, 2026, and that the old vehicles are registered in the applicant's name by January 8, 2025 [2] Group 3: Eligibility Criteria - Each consumer is limited to one "scrapping and updating" subsidy or one "trading and updating" subsidy in 2026 [2] - The new electric vehicles purchased must be included in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's directory for tax exemption on vehicle purchases, and the invoices and registration must be processed within the city [2]

Core Viewpoint - Hubei Province has officially launched a new round of vehicle trade-in subsidy policy, effective from January 1, 2026, aimed at promoting green consumption and optimizing the automotive market [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The new subsidy policy includes adjustments to the vehicle scrapping and trade-in standards, extending the registration time for scrapped vehicles, and ensuring that more essential consumer groups benefit from the subsidies [1][4]. - The subsidy standard will now be calculated as a percentage of the new car sales price, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan for purchasing new energy vehicles and 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less [4][5]. Group 2: Consumer Impact - As of December 21, 2025, nearly 420,000 applications for the trade-in subsidy have been submitted, generating over 60 billion yuan in automotive consumption, with nearly 50% of consumers benefiting from the policy [2]. - The proportion of new energy vehicles purchased through the trade-in program exceeds 60%, indicating a rapid shift towards greener and smarter automotive solutions [2]. Group 3: Application Process - The application process for subsidies will continue to be fully online, allowing consumers to apply through designated platforms with necessary documentation [2][3]. - Each consumer can only choose one option between scrapping and trade-in for subsidies within a year, and the same vehicle cannot receive multiple subsidies [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Framework - The policy emphasizes a unified standard for trade-in subsidies and prohibits the designation of specific vehicle recycling companies, ensuring fair participation from various business entities [3][4]. - A joint regulatory mechanism will be established among relevant departments to prevent fraudulent claims and ensure compliance with the subsidy guidelines [3].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing will implement a new automobile trade-in subsidy scheme starting February 9, 2026, with a maximum subsidy amount of 20,000 yuan [1]. Group 1: Subsidy Details - The subsidy scheme includes two categories: "scrapping and updating" and "trading and updating" [1]. - For "scrapping and updating," consumers can receive a subsidy of 12% of the new car sales price (up to 20,000 yuan) for purchasing new energy vehicles, and 10% (up to 15,000 yuan) for purchasing fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less [3]. - For "trading and updating," consumers can receive a subsidy of 8% of the new energy vehicle sales price (up to 15,000 yuan) when selling an old car [3]. Group 2: Application Process - The application system for the subsidies will open on February 9, 2026, at 10:00 AM, and consumers can apply online through designated platforms [2]. - Consumers must ensure that the materials related to the scrapping or selling of old cars and the purchase of new cars are obtained from January 1, 2026 [4]. - Each consumer is eligible for only one subsidy for either scrapping or trading in a car in 2026 [4].