Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The lithium carbonate market will continue the pattern of tight supply - demand balance. The escalation of the Middle - East situation has triggered capital panic, leading to an oscillating correction [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate dropped by the daily limit to 150,860 yuan/ton due to geopolitical influence. The trading volume nearly doubled compared to the previous period, the open interest decreased, and the net long - short ratio increased significantly. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 441 lots to 37,755 lots [2]. - On the spot side, the average price of SMM electric carbon is 161,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric and industrial carbon remains at 3,500 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt producers are reluctant to sell, while downstream material factories are more willing to buy at lower prices, with active market inquiries and significantly increased trading enthusiasm [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the prices of various raw materials increased compared to February 13. The SMM weekly operating rate rose to 49.75% (a 3.73% increase compared to February 12), and the weekly total output increased to 21,822 tons (+1,638 tons), indicating a marginal increase in supply [3]. - **Demand**: Demand showed differentiation. Last week, lithium iron phosphate production and inventory increased, while ternary production decreased and inventory was reduced. As of February 8, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In February, the NBS lithium - battery output was 169.01GWh, a 12.9% month - on - month decrease. Energy storage cells had strong production and sales and low inventory, being a structural highlight [3]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the SMM four - location sample social inventory decreased by 1,690 tons to 44,520 tons, and the sample weekly total inventory decreased to 100,093 tons, at a relatively low level. The total inventory days decreased to 28.2 days, maintaining an overall tight - balance pattern [3]. 3.3 Macro - policy and Environment - **Domestic Policy**: Subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. The management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries raise the recycling threshold, eliminate backward production capacity, optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term, and raise the cost - support center. The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference work together to support long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - **Domestic Macro - environment**: The central bank's structural interest rate cuts strengthen the long - term positive atmosphere [4]. - **International Situation**: In February, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and the White House's 15% temporary tariff policy improved the marginal profit of exports, benefiting demand during the window period. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased risk - aversion sentiment and greater fluctuations in the US dollar index, which may intensify short - term price fluctuations. However, its impact is subject to the dominance of the tight supply - demand balance pattern in the lithium market, being a short - term emotional disturbance rather than a trend reversal [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market has shown strong performance, with lithium carbonate prices surging, marking a significant rebound from last year's lows, driven by expectations of increased demand due to changes in export tax policies [1][6][7]. Price Movement - On January 12, the main contract for lithium carbonate hit a limit up, increasing by 9% to 156,060 yuan/ton, surpassing the 150,000 yuan mark for the first time in two years [1]. - Since early December, lithium carbonate prices have rapidly increased, breaking through multiple price thresholds, with a rebound of over 150% from the low point in June of the previous year [1]. Spot Market Performance - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 152,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate was at 148,500 yuan/ton, reflecting increases of 12,000 yuan and percentage rises of 8.57% and 8.79%, respectively [3][4]. Stock Market Reaction - The A-share lithium mining index saw significant gains, with companies like Dazhong Mining and Jinyuan Co. rising over 6%, and others like Zhongkuang Resources and Shengxin Lithium Energy increasing by more than 5% [4]. Policy Impact - The recent adjustment in export tax policy for battery products, effective from April 2026, is expected to create a rush for exports before the tax rate decreases from 9% to 6% and eventually to zero [6][7]. - Analysts believe this policy change will enhance the profitability of lithium battery companies and lead to increased overseas prices, benefiting companies not affected by the tax changes [7]. Demand Dynamics - There is a notable increase in demand from the new energy commercial vehicle and energy storage sectors, shifting market expectations from oversupply to a tight balance, with first-quarter demand significantly exceeding expectations compared to the same period in 2025 [7]. - Current prices are seen as reflective of the supply-demand fundamentals, with strong market conditions expected to persist in the first quarter [7]. Future Considerations - If lithium carbonate prices continue to rise and exceed 200,000 yuan/ton, there may be upward pressure on costs for other battery materials, potentially suppressing downstream demand and triggering a reversal in supply-demand dynamics [7]. - Concerns have been raised about speculative trading in lithium carbonate prices, which could lead to a zero-sum game within the industry and misguide capacity investments, increasing long-term oversupply risks [8]. Regulatory Measures - To maintain stability in the lithium carbonate futures market and mitigate potential risks, regulatory bodies have implemented measures such as adjusting trading fees and limits [8].