2025，是秩序崩坏之年，也是规则重塑元年。 这一年，特朗普挥舞"对等关税"大棒，撕裂战后贸易体系；中东战火骤然升级，美以直接出手打击伊朗核设施；俄乌走向谈判桌，却在领土与安 全边界上反复拉锯。美国财政在"大漂亮法案"下全面扩张，联邦政府关门刷新历史纪录，国家机器在党争中频频熄火。 同样深刻的变化发生在货币层面：美联储在政治压力下加速降息，日本央行却逆势重启加息，全球主要央行首次出现方向性的制度分裂。 所有裂痕，最终都映射到市场之上——黄金突破4500美元，迎来四十年来最狂热的一轮牛市；美元指数跌向二十年来最差年度表现；而风险资产 学会了一件事：把制度失灵本身，当成可被定价的背景噪音。 每一次冲击，都曾让全球市场短暂窒息。而当冲击反复出现，它就不再是意外，而是新常态。2026年，世界将在"混乱已成确定性"的现实中，继 续摸索新的平衡与规则。唯一可以确定的是：动荡本身，已经成为这个时代最稳定的特征。 特朗普关税大棒，重创全球贸易秩序 2025年，特朗普政府推行的 "对等关税" 政策掀起全球贸易震荡，关税从临时性贸易救济手段蜕变为常态化博弈工具，深刻冲击了战后形成的多边 贸易体系。 综合新华社、央视新闻报道，年初 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has signaled a potential end to its monetary easing cycle, leading to a shift in market expectations and a sell-off in European bonds [1][3]. Group 1: ECB's Policy Shift - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the central bank is nearing the end of its monetary policy easing cycle and may raise future growth forecasts, which has prompted traders to adjust their positions [1]. - Following Lagarde's comments, the two-year government bond yields in most Eurozone countries rose by at least 5 basis points [1]. Group 2: Global Bond Market Reaction - The sell-off in the European bond market has had a contagion effect, impacting the U.S. bond market despite weak U.S. employment data that had previously supported U.S. Treasury prices [2][3]. - The U.S. two-year Treasury yield briefly fell but then rebounded, ultimately rising by over 5 basis points [3]. Group 3: Divergence in Monetary Policies - There is a significant gap in the market's expectations for interest rate cuts between the ECB and the Federal Reserve, with the market now pricing in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut by the Fed in September [7]. - The ECB's expected rate cut for the end of the year has been adjusted from 30 basis points to 25 basis points following Lagarde's remarks [7]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Concerns over U.S. fiscal prospects and inflation driven by tariffs are contributing to a complex environment for bond investors, making it difficult for U.S. Treasury yields to decline significantly [7][8]. - The market is awaiting the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, with expectations of an increase of 125,000 jobs, which is lower than the previous month's figure [8].

Group 1: Central Bank Decisions - The Bank of England lowered its benchmark interest rate from 4.5% to 4.25%, with a divided opinion among committee members regarding the extent of the cut [1] - The Central Bank of Peru reduced its reference rate from 4.75% to 4.50% [2] - The Bank Negara Malaysia maintained its overnight policy rate at 3% but lowered the statutory reserve requirement by 100 basis points to 1%, effective May 16, releasing approximately 19 billion Malaysian Ringgit in liquidity [4] - The Swedish and Norwegian central banks kept their rates unchanged at 2.25% and 4.5% respectively, citing increased global economic uncertainty due to U.S. trade policies [5] - The Central Bank of Brazil raised its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 14.75%, the highest level since August 2006, due to rising food and energy prices [6] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The Bank of England forecasts a temporary rise in inflation to 3.7% due to energy price increases, up from 2.6% in March [1] - The Bank of England predicts a 0.8% economic growth for the UK in 2025, lower than the previous year, emphasizing the need for stable low inflation before further rate cuts [1] - The Bank Negara Malaysia noted that U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures have weakened global economic and trade growth prospects [4] - The Swedish central bank indicated that inflation may fall below previous forecasts, suggesting potential future easing of monetary policy [5] - The Central Bank of Brazil expects an inflation rate of 4.8% in 2025, above its target range [6]