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央行货币政策分化
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美债抛完日债抛,日债抛完欧债抛
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-06 03:53
Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has signaled a potential end to its monetary easing cycle, leading to a shift in market expectations and a sell-off in European bonds [1][3]. Group 1: ECB's Policy Shift - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the central bank is nearing the end of its monetary policy easing cycle and may raise future growth forecasts, which has prompted traders to adjust their positions [1]. - Following Lagarde's comments, the two-year government bond yields in most Eurozone countries rose by at least 5 basis points [1]. Group 2: Global Bond Market Reaction - The sell-off in the European bond market has had a contagion effect, impacting the U.S. bond market despite weak U.S. employment data that had previously supported U.S. Treasury prices [2][3]. - The U.S. two-year Treasury yield briefly fell but then rebounded, ultimately rising by over 5 basis points [3]. Group 3: Divergence in Monetary Policies - There is a significant gap in the market's expectations for interest rate cuts between the ECB and the Federal Reserve, with the market now pricing in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut by the Fed in September [7]. - The ECB's expected rate cut for the end of the year has been adjusted from 30 basis points to 25 basis points following Lagarde's remarks [7]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Concerns over U.S. fiscal prospects and inflation driven by tariffs are contributing to a complex environment for bond investors, making it difficult for U.S. Treasury yields to decline significantly [7][8]. - The market is awaiting the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, with expectations of an increase of 125,000 jobs, which is lower than the previous month's figure [8].
多国央行货币政策呈现“分化”格局
Group 1: Central Bank Decisions - The Bank of England lowered its benchmark interest rate from 4.5% to 4.25%, with a divided opinion among committee members regarding the extent of the cut [1] - The Central Bank of Peru reduced its reference rate from 4.75% to 4.50% [2] - The Bank Negara Malaysia maintained its overnight policy rate at 3% but lowered the statutory reserve requirement by 100 basis points to 1%, effective May 16, releasing approximately 19 billion Malaysian Ringgit in liquidity [4] - The Swedish and Norwegian central banks kept their rates unchanged at 2.25% and 4.5% respectively, citing increased global economic uncertainty due to U.S. trade policies [5] - The Central Bank of Brazil raised its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 14.75%, the highest level since August 2006, due to rising food and energy prices [6] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The Bank of England forecasts a temporary rise in inflation to 3.7% due to energy price increases, up from 2.6% in March [1] - The Bank of England predicts a 0.8% economic growth for the UK in 2025, lower than the previous year, emphasizing the need for stable low inflation before further rate cuts [1] - The Bank Negara Malaysia noted that U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures have weakened global economic and trade growth prospects [4] - The Swedish central bank indicated that inflation may fall below previous forecasts, suggesting potential future easing of monetary policy [5] - The Central Bank of Brazil expects an inflation rate of 4.8% in 2025, above its target range [6]