2025.08. 22 本文字数：1524，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 伴随针对小额包裹的关税豁免即将到期，全球多国纷纷暂停向美国递送包裹。 此前，美国总统特朗普签署了一项行政令，该行政令规定，自8月29日起暂停"小额豁免"政策。 比利时邮政表示，由于美国国际货运新规存在不确定性，从8月22日开始暂时停止向美国寄送包裹。 届时，凡是通过非国际邮政系统(如联邦快递等)运送至美国、且申报价值在800美元以下的商业包 裹，将不再享有所谓"最低关税豁免"，需按规定缴纳所有适用关税。 据统计，该豁免原本适用于美国海关和边境保护局每天处理的超过400万个包裹。作为回应，越来越 多的国家邮政服务计划最早于本周暂停向美国递送包裹，理由是美国当局对如何征收关税以及如何提 交所需数据缺乏明确说明。 在7月31日，针对"美国今天暂停了针对小额包裹的免税政策，许多来自中国的包裹会受到影响"这 一问题，外交部新闻发言人郭嘉昆在例行记者会上表示，中方注意到有关情况。希望美方恪守公平竞 争的市场原则，为包括中国企业在内的各国企业提供公平、公正、非歧视的营商环境。 暂停对美发包裹 在亚洲，韩国邮政表示，将开始停止接受寄往 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has signaled a potential end to its monetary easing cycle, leading to a shift in market expectations and a sell-off in European bonds [1][3]. Group 1: ECB's Policy Shift - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the central bank is nearing the end of its monetary policy easing cycle and may raise future growth forecasts, which has prompted traders to adjust their positions [1]. - Following Lagarde's comments, the two-year government bond yields in most Eurozone countries rose by at least 5 basis points [1]. Group 2: Global Bond Market Reaction - The sell-off in the European bond market has had a contagion effect, impacting the U.S. bond market despite weak U.S. employment data that had previously supported U.S. Treasury prices [2][3]. - The U.S. two-year Treasury yield briefly fell but then rebounded, ultimately rising by over 5 basis points [3]. Group 3: Divergence in Monetary Policies - There is a significant gap in the market's expectations for interest rate cuts between the ECB and the Federal Reserve, with the market now pricing in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut by the Fed in September [7]. - The ECB's expected rate cut for the end of the year has been adjusted from 30 basis points to 25 basis points following Lagarde's remarks [7]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Concerns over U.S. fiscal prospects and inflation driven by tariffs are contributing to a complex environment for bond investors, making it difficult for U.S. Treasury yields to decline significantly [7][8]. - The market is awaiting the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, with expectations of an increase of 125,000 jobs, which is lower than the previous month's figure [8].