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中信证券:继续看好存储需求超预期 且供不应求将持续至2027年上半年
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-03-07 01:13
Core Viewpoint - The storage industry remains in a high state of prosperity, driven by strong demand and better-than-expected performance from key players like Kioxia and Bawei Storage, with expectations of supply shortages continuing into the first half of 2027 [1][8]. Price Review - DRAM prices showed a mixed trend in February, with spot prices fluctuating between -3% to +12%, while contract prices for DDR5 and DDR4 increased by 4% and 8% respectively [1]. - NAND Flash prices continued to rise significantly in February, with spot prices increasing by 10% to 26% and contract prices up by 37% to 67% [1]. - Module prices for DDR4/5 remained stable, while SSD prices increased by 0% to 13% and mobile storage prices rose by 10% to 25% [2]. Price Outlook - DRAM contract prices are expected to rise by 90% to 95% in Q1, with major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix planning further price increases in Q2 [2]. - NAND Flash prices are projected to increase by 85% to 90% in Q1 due to strong demand from AI servers, surpassing previous expectations of 55% to 60% [2]. Demand Assessment from Overseas Manufacturers - SK Hynix anticipates a year-on-year growth of over 20% in DRAM bit demand and 15% to 20% in NAND bit demand for 2026, with inventory levels at approximately four weeks [4]. - SanDisk expects data center bit demand to grow by over 60% in 2026 [4]. - Kioxia forecasts a long-term CAGR of about 20% for NAND market bit demand, with significant revenue growth expected in FY4Q25 [4]. Domestic Storage Company Performance Expectations - Bawei Storage projects revenue of 4 to 4.5 billion yuan for January-February, representing a year-on-year increase of 340% to 395%, with net profit expected to rise by 922% to 1086% [5].
中信证券:继续看好存储需求超预期,预计行业供不应求将持续至27H1
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-03-07 01:08
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the storage industry remains in a high state of prosperity, supported by better-than-expected performance and guidance from Kioxia, an increase in NAND contract prices for Q1, and strong earnings announcements from domestic module manufacturer Baiwei Storage for January-February [1] Group 1 - Kioxia's performance and guidance have exceeded expectations since February [1] - NAND contract prices for the first quarter have been raised, indicating strong demand [1] - Baiwei Storage's earnings announcements for January-February have also surpassed expectations, further validating the industry's robust outlook [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities maintains a positive outlook on storage demand, expecting a supply shortage to persist until the first half of 2027 [1] - The report recommends focusing on storage module companies, original storage manufacturers, and design companies closely aligned with original manufacturers due to their strong short-term performance potential [1]