存量政策与增量政策集成效应
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中国明年财政和货币政策 “存量”与“增量”作何解?
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-12-11 12:34
Group 1 - The central economic work conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy for the upcoming year, with a focus on stabilizing growth as the core objective [1] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain strong support to expand demand and optimize structure, while monetary policy will provide a low-cost funding environment for economic operations [1] - The new expression "integrating the effects of stock and incremental policies" highlights the importance of implementing existing policies effectively before introducing new ones, ensuring continuity and alignment between them [1] Group 2 - Incremental policies are expected to include debt replacement efforts, directing more funds to address local government hidden debt issues [2] - The coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial, with fiscal policy acting as a "pulling force" for demand creation and monetary policy providing a "lubricant" for environmental stability [2] - Global economic conditions show inconsistent cycles among major economies, leading to stronger interactions between fiscal and monetary policies, with markets reacting more swiftly to policy signals [2]
(经济观察)中国明年财政和货币政策 “存量”与“增量”作何解?
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-12-11 12:30
Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy for the upcoming year, aiming to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness and support economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy will maintain strong support to expand demand and optimize structure, with a focus on implementing existing policies effectively [1] - The integration of existing and new fiscal policies is highlighted, with an emphasis on utilizing existing resources and improving policy transmission efficiency [1][2] - The continuation of debt replacement work is expected to address local government hidden debt issues [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose to provide a low-cost funding environment for economic operations [1] - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial, with attention to fiscal expenditure structure, deficit arrangements, and the issuance of special bonds [2] - The role of monetary policy includes stabilizing the environment and supporting economic recovery [2] Group 3: Policy Integration - The concept of "integrated effects of existing and new policies" is a new addition, emphasizing the need for alignment between existing and future policies [1] - The collaboration between fiscal policy as a demand driver and monetary policy as a stabilizing agent is essential for economic recovery [2] - Global economic conditions, including high interest rates and debt levels, necessitate a stronger interaction between fiscal and monetary policies [2]