Group 1 - The global perception is shifting, with a survey indicating that nearly all countries believe the U.S. hegemony is declining and that China will dominate the world in the next decade [1][3] - In South Africa, 83% of respondents expect China's influence to grow, while Brazil and Turkey report 72% and 63% respectively, indicating a widespread acknowledgment of China's rising power even among U.S. citizens, where 54% agree [3] - The survey reveals a significant shift in trust towards China among global South countries, reflecting disappointment in the U.S.-led order and a belief in the inevitability of the East's rise [3] Group 2 - China is recognized for its core hard power, with many EU citizens expecting it to lead in electric vehicles and renewable energy, thus gaining a voice in global industry standards [5] - The West's previous belief in technological superiority as a protective barrier has been challenged, as China now offers a comprehensive suite of low-cost, efficient modern solutions, contrasting with the U.S.'s limited competitive offerings in civilian industries [5] Group 3 - Ukraine and South Korea are notable exceptions in viewing China negatively, driven more by geopolitical tragedies than rational strategic assessments [7] - Ukraine's despair from ongoing conflict has led to a projection of blame onto China for not intervening against Russian aggression, while South Korea's hostility stems from a complex relationship with the U.S. and fears of losing industrial advantages to China [7] - The anxiety in South Korea regarding the loss of key industries to China has manifested as illogical anger towards China, which does not alter the reality of the shifting global landscape [7]

国际观察室 -中东局势新变化和风险 20250618 摘要 内塔尼亚胡面临政治压力，可能通过转移矛盾稳固权力，导致以色列持 续对中东什叶派抵抗力量进行军事打击，但国内防御准备不足。 美国主要提供后勤支持，包括情报共享和空中加油，增强以色列军事行 动效果，但避免直接军事介入，战略重心在于亚太地区。 伊朗发射约 370 枚弹道导弹反击，但多数被美以防空系统拦截，效果有 限，若冲突升级，以色列或需更多美国支持。 以色列空袭削弱伊朗反击能力，摧毁大量导弹发射车及空军设施，加之 经济制裁，伊朗处境艰难。 伊朗反击目标选择克制，可能寄希望于美国调停，但重启谈判所需筹码 将远高于冲突前，包括放弃核能力和裁军。 伊朗福尔多地下核设施未被摧毁，仍是重要谈判筹码。美国虽不允许伊 朗拥核，但避免深度卷入中东冲突，战略重心在亚太。 特朗普对伊朗问题态度投机，约束以色列避免局势升级，同时施压伊朗 谈判，但可能因国内主战派压力而直接介入，原油价格已受影响。 Q&A 以色列在当前中东局势中的立场和行动策略是什么？ 以色列作为冲突的发起者，其立场和行动策略主要基于外部和内部两方面的考 虑。外部方面，以色列试图毁灭伊朗的核武器能力，并削弱伊朗 ...