高盛集团近日发布了对2026年的年度投资展望，梳理了未来一年值得关注的十大主题。该行经济学家预测，即使在关税壁垒加剧的环境下，中国仍将凭借技 术进步和持续的出口优势实现超预期增长。 在人工智能领域，报告指出AI投资主题正经历显著转型，投资者将目光投向数据中心内部，寻找那些无论使用何种芯片都能支持全球算力建设的公司。在 医药方面，GLP-1减肥药市场出现分化，投资焦点将转向寻求明年批准的新减重产品，并观察到生物制药的重心正从肥胖症药物过渡到"心脏病学复兴"。 高盛团队还指出，随着技术进步，制造能够模拟日常活动的硬件生产能力在提高，并评估了人形机器人发展对特斯拉等优势工业科技企业利润增长的潜在推 动力。报告亦提及，中国在自动驾驶汽车领域处于领先地位，预计到2035年中国无人驾驶出租车市场规模将达470亿美元。 报告同时提示，政策走向始终是一大市场主题，在步入2026年之际，政策对市场的影响可能较往常更为显著，美联储政策走向、最高法院对特朗普政府关税 政策的裁决等议题将主导市场情绪。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 根据高盛行业研究团队发布的报告 ...

2025年是变乱交织、挑战叠加的一年。岁末年终，中新网"中外对话"节目特邀中外专家，梳理国际局势 一年来的重要节点与深刻变化。 美国库恩基金会主席、知名中国问题研究专家罗伯特·库恩也指出，中国政策的连续性与战略稳定性为 国际社会提供了可靠参照，助力各国在复杂环境中谋划合作与发展。在国际社会共同面对民族主义抬头 和复杂博弈时，中国崛起成为动荡与不确定世界中的一股稳定力量，发挥着关键作用。(冯小妍） 北京外国语大学区域与全球治理高等研究院教授崔洪建接受采访时表示，面对复杂多变的国际局势，中 国为维护世界和平与稳定发挥了重要作用，不仅坚决遏制军国主义复活的风险，也团结更多力量，制止 少数国家推行可能引发地区不稳定的冒险政策。 ...

文章列举了三点原因。首先是中国重视教育，2022年已经有47%以上的人完成了本科教育，而美国这一比例仅为18%。根据大数法则，随着教育水平的提 升，创新突破势必会发生，而且中国在先进制造业方面依然保持着成本优势。其次是中国注重务实，力求通过先进技术来增强国内制造业的竞争力，从而提 高工厂的生产效率。最后，文章提到中国本土品牌的快速崛起，诸如拉布布这样抓住消费者需求的品牌，已经在欧美市场取得了显著成绩。综合这些因素， 文章最后质问西方领导人：为什么在认知中国方面如此错漏百出？并提醒西方国家，忽视中国将是个大错特错的决定，世界上真正的第二大经济体只有中 国。从整篇文章来看，这似乎是对中国一次中肯的评价。难得看到美国媒体如此清醒，那么这是否意味着美国的立场发生了改变？ 实际上，这种清醒背后，更像是美国在打压中国受挫后，短暂的理智回归。用通俗的话说，就是美国在被打了几拳后，终于恢复了清晰的思维。正如文章所 说，中国成功抵抗了美国的关税霸凌，且取得了令人称赞的成果，成为全球唯一一个让美国退回原点的国家，甚至提升了自身的国际地位和声望。因此，美 国媒体的视角似乎变得理智了。然而，这对中国真的是好事吗？我们依然需要谨慎对待 ...

这几年我们能够明显感觉到出口的东西越来越多且越来越贵，进口的东西越来越少且越来越便宜。 对我们而言，不过是回归到曾经的历史地位罢了 几百年前的大明靠着出口茶叶瓷器丝绸三件套，坐在家里就有海水一样的白银流进来。欧洲人在美洲几百年敲骨吸髓的掠夺来来的银子最后全都转手孝敬大 明了。 乡下一些制造爱好者自己能攢出来直升机…固定翼飞机…大型航模站几个人不会沉的那种…，还能弄袖珍潜水艇…什么电动钓鱼船，电动超跑，那更多了， 我看见一个攢歼10的，我都惊呆了… 就这种工业水平衬托出来的汽车制造，舰船制造，摩托车制造，这种工业制品能不横扫南方国家？再加上什么半导体，手机，钢铁，传统出口项目，制造业 太牛了 就拿汽车来说，这几年中国进口的汽车特别少，2024年只有392亿美元，出口额增长到1174亿美元，今年还会更夸张，谁敢信十年前老中汽车垃圾？同样还 有集成电路，天天喊我们被卡脖子，但2024年出口额高达1595亿美元，我们十分畅销的手机出口也才1343亿美元。 2025年最新报告指出，中国制造业增加值占全球比重已接近30%，规模连续15年全球第一。中国拥有联合国产业分类中全部41个工业大类，在500余种主要 工业产品中，多 ...

Group 1 - The core argument is that Trump's recognition of China's strength marks a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape, acknowledging that China has rapidly risen to challenge the U.S. [1] - Trump expresses concern over the potential cancellation of tariffs, emphasizing their importance as leverage in negotiations with China and other countries [3] - The U.S. has implemented various measures, including chip export controls and trade investigations under Section 301, to counter China's economic and technological advancements [5] Group 2 - Despite external pressures, China continues to advance in innovation and has increased its global influence, with a net favorability rating of 8.8 compared to the U.S.'s -1.5 [7] - The U.S. faces challenges in forming anti-China coalitions, as countries like Saudi Arabia and South Africa resist aligning against China, indicating a shift in global dynamics [9] - The U.S. is grappling with a significant national debt of $38 trillion and internal political strife, which has led to a government shutdown affecting over 42 million people [9][10] Group 3 - Trump's focus on tariffs as a solution for revitalizing U.S. manufacturing overlooks deeper systemic issues within the American economy [10] - The global landscape is evolving towards multipolarity, with emerging economies gaining prominence and diverse governance models becoming more accepted [10][12] - China's rise is attributed to its institutional resilience and strategic stability, suggesting that the U.S. must adapt to these fundamental changes to maintain its global leadership [12]

Market Overview - The A-share market has reached a 10-year high, nearing the 4000-point mark, with expectations to surpass it soon [2][15] - The current bull market is believed to be in its early stages, indicating potential for further growth [15][29] Investment Strategy - The strategy emphasizes long-term holding of quality stocks rather than short-term trading, which can lead to missed opportunities [9][10] - A significant portfolio adjustment was made, moving away from high-priced sectors like chips and innovative pharmaceuticals to focus on leading companies in the liquor, non-ferrous metals, and technology sectors [10][14] Market Dynamics - The article highlights the importance of recognizing China's economic advancements over the U.S., which is seen as a foundation for the A-share market's rise [18][21] - There is a notable increase in liquidity, with a record monthly sale of $51.8 billion by Chinese banks, driven by companies accelerating currency conversion [22][23] Future Outlook - The expectation is that as liquidity continues to increase, A-share prices will rise, with the potential for a sustained bull market if international conditions remain stable [28][30] - The article warns that while the long-term outlook for A-shares is positive, volatility is expected due to various geopolitical factors [31]

Core Insights - The article discusses the decline of the United States as a global power, highlighting three major challenges: debt, political division, and social stratification [1][3][4] Economic Challenges - As of October 2025, the U.S. national debt has surpassed $37.88 trillion, with an average debt burden of $110,000 per citizen. Interest payments alone exceed $1 trillion, accounting for 15% of the federal budget, comparable to military spending [6] - The inefficiency of the U.S. political system, characterized by partisan conflicts, has led to delays in budget approvals and infrastructure projects, exemplified by an eight-year delay in passing a significant infrastructure bill [6][8] Corruption and Governance - Corruption is increasingly problematic, with a reported 8.2 cases of corruption per 10 million people in 2025. This includes issues in law enforcement and defense procurement, contributing to a growing fiscal deficit and institutional rigidity [10] - The perception of a hollow financial system is reinforced by the ongoing corruption and inefficiency, undermining the credibility of the U.S. dollar as a global currency [10] Social Issues - The internal divisions within the U.S. are intensifying, with significant political and social unrest. The return of Trump to the presidency has exacerbated tensions between states, leading to a near civil war-like atmosphere [13] - Gun violence and drug-related issues have surged, with 24,000 gun-related incidents reported in the first half of 2025, reflecting a breakdown in social trust [15] - Wealth inequality is stark, with the top 10% controlling 93% of stock wealth, while the bottom 50% hold only 2.5% of assets, highlighting the erosion of the "American Dream" [17] China's Rise - In contrast, China is projected to achieve a GDP growth of 4.8% in 2025, supported by robust manufacturing, exports, and consumption, contributing one-third of global growth [19] - China's advancements in technology, particularly in AI and robotics, are notable, with significant investments leading to a leading position in industrial robot density and a strong presence in the global electric vehicle market [19][20] - The Belt and Road Initiative is revitalizing infrastructure projects across various regions, enhancing China's international economic influence [20] Global Shift - The article suggests a historical pattern where the decline of one empire coincides with the rise of another, positioning China as the emerging power as the U.S. faces deepening crises [22][23] - The global balance of power is shifting from the West to the East, with implications for currency dynamics and international order [23]

Group 1 - The current global situation is characterized by instability and uncertainty, largely due to the U.S. government's policies under Trump, which aim to create a chaotic environment [1][4] - The essence of the ongoing crisis is the shift of global power from the West to the East, particularly the rise of China, which has been evident since 2008 [1][3] - The historical context of the crisis can be compared to the post-1929 situation in the UK, where the U.S. felt threatened by Britain's rise, leading to trade wars and economic fragmentation [3] Group 2 - There is optimism regarding China's rise, as it is seen as responding effectively to global challenges, positioning itself advantageously compared to the U.S. in the long term [3][4] - China has become the world's largest manufacturing country, accounting for 30% of global manufacturing products, indicating its significant economic influence [4] - The reliance of some developing countries on the U.S. market is viewed as a potential source of uncertainty, as they may not fully recognize the diminishing importance of the U.S. in the current global landscape [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the strategic miscalculation by the United States in allowing China to join the WTO, which inadvertently provided China with the opportunity to accelerate its economic growth and industrialization [1][9] Group 1: Economic Growth Phases - After joining the WTO, China increased its foreign exchange reserves from $200 billion to $600 billion by 2005, marking the first significant accumulation of wealth [3] - From 2005 to 2008, China's foreign exchange reserves surged from $600 billion to $1.9 trillion, driven by a sudden appreciation of the yuan and an influx of foreign investment [4] - This rapid accumulation of reserves allowed China to transform from a low-end trade economy to a global industrial powerhouse, with urbanization rates rising from 36% to 64.7% [6] Group 2: Societal Impact - The economic transformation came at a cost, with the current generation facing heavy burdens such as high mortgage debts and job insecurity, reflecting the sacrifices made for national development [8] - The article posits that if the U.S. had focused its attention on China instead of the Middle East, China's path to modernization and industrialization would have been significantly more challenging [8][9] - The narrative likens the situation to stock market investments, where individuals benefit from economic growth but also bear the risks associated with market fluctuations [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's rise is shifting the global economic focus towards Asia, with ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hoh emphasizing China's role as a significant engine for global economic growth [1][2] - Since 1949, China's development has not only transformed its own destiny but has also profoundly influenced regional and global progress, according to Kao Kim Hoh [1] - The relationship between ASEAN and China has evolved significantly, with the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2021, contributing to peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region [1] Group 2 - Malaysia's permanent representative to ASEAN, Sara, highlighted China's contributions to global peace, development, and prosperity, positioning it as a vital source of innovation and progress [2] - Data shows that China and ASEAN have been each other's largest trading partners for several years, with bilateral trade reaching $686.78 billion in the first eight months of this year, marking an 8.6% increase year-on-year [2] - The negotiations for the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area 3.0 have been successfully completed, which is expected to create more opportunities for economic cooperation [2]