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行业轮动策略月报:“预期共振”行业轮动模型十二月最新推荐-20251130
CMS· 2025-11-30 13:46
Strategy Logic - The report introduces the "Shouzheng Chuq" investment sentiment indicator, which aims to identify potential investment opportunities in the A-share market by analyzing industry rotation phenomena [1][5] - The strategy combines three main dimensions: investment sentiment, volume-price indicators, and analyst expectations, resulting in 12 detailed industry rotation indicators [1][5] - The investment sentiment indicator utilizes market data and alternative data to create positive and negative screening factors, capturing market momentum and sentiment [5][6] Strategy Performance - In November, the overall industry benchmark return was -0.95%, while the "Shouzheng Chuq" sentiment indicator long portfolio returned -1.24% [2][6] - The combined "Expectation Resonance" model long portfolio achieved a return of 0.98%, resulting in an excess return of 1.93% [2][6] - Year-to-date, the "Shouzheng Chuq" sentiment indicator long portfolio has shown robust performance with a return of 30.29% and an excess return of 8.05% [2][12] Latest Recommendations - The top recommended industries based on the latest data include non-bank financials, automotive, food and beverage, home appliances, transportation, and banking according to the "Shouzheng Chuq" model [3][21] - The "Expectation Resonance" model ranks non-bank financials, banking, home appliances, transportation, automotive, and electronics as the leading industries [3][21] - Detailed scores for recommended industries and corresponding ETFs are provided, indicating strong performance in non-bank financials and home appliances [21][22]
行业轮动策略月报:“预期共振”行业轮动模型十一月最新推荐-20251103
CMS· 2025-11-03 01:09
Strategy Logic - The report introduces the "Shouzheng Chuq" market investment prosperity indicator, which aims to identify investment opportunities in industries that can become market investment main lines, based on the phenomenon of industry rotation in the A-share market [1][5] - The strategy combines three major dimensions: investment prosperity, volume-price indicators, and analyst expectations, resulting in 12 detailed industry rotation indicators [1][5] - The investment prosperity indicator utilizes market data and alternative data to construct positive and negative screening factors, capturing the marginal upward beta factor and the super-expected report factor while preventing trading overheating [5][6] Strategy Performance - In October, the "Shouzheng Chuq" investment prosperity long portfolio achieved a return of 0.40%, while the analyst expectation indicator long portfolio returned 1.19%, closely matching the benchmark return of 1.06% [2][11] - The volume-price indicator performed exceptionally well, with a long portfolio return of 3.29%, resulting in an excess return of 2.23% [2][11] - The comprehensive "Expectation Resonance" model long portfolio yielded a return of 2.56%, with an excess return of 1.50% [2][11] Latest Recommendations - Based on the latest data, the top recommended industries for November according to the "Shouzheng Chuq" model include computer, petroleum and petrochemicals, light industry manufacturing, non-bank financials, commercial retail, and pharmaceuticals [3][19] - The "Expectation Resonance" model ranks non-bank financials, commercial retail, banking, petroleum and petrochemicals, light industry manufacturing, and home appliances as the leading industries [3][19] Industry Scores and ETF Recommendations - The report provides detailed scores for recommended industries, with non-bank financials scoring 1.00, commercial retail 0.97, and banking 0.93 under the "Expectation Resonance" composite indicator [19] - Corresponding ETFs for the recommended industries include various options for computer, petroleum, light industry manufacturing, non-bank financials, commercial retail, and pharmaceuticals [20]