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双焦周报20251201:供需小幅走弱,盘面持续回落-20251201
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 12:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market last week saw a slight increase in supply, a decline in demand from a high level, and weak purchasing sentiment. The overall supply recovery was slow with limited increments. Although the daily output of clean coal increased slightly, the market sentiment was poor, leading to a continuous decline in the futures price. However, due to the low current valuation, low supply, and potential winter storage demand, the futures price is expected to stop falling and rebound. Attention should be paid to subsequent macro - policy expectations and safety inspection intensity [4]. - The coke market is weak, with the first round of price cuts initiated by some steel mills. Supply is increasing as environmental controls ease and coke enterprise profits expand. Demand is weakening as steel mill blast furnace maintenance continues and terminal demand enters the off - season. The supply - demand balance is moving towards looseness, but due to the relatively high blast furnace operating rate of steel mills and winter storage demand, the coke at a relatively low price still has resilience and is expected to stop falling and rebound following the coking coal futures price in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment disturbances [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Part I: Market View Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines decreased to 86.01% (- 0.93%), but the daily output of clean coal increased by 0.61 tons to 76.41 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants decreased to 36.32% (- 1.24%), and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 1.05 tons to 26.58 tons. Recently, Mongolian coal customs clearance has returned to normal, and the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port last week rebounded to a high level, increasing overall supply slightly [4]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.09% (- 1.1%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills increased slightly to 13.01 days (+ 0.04), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants decreased to 12.84 days (- 0.6). Demand declined slightly, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm [4]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased by 38 tons to 223.92 tons, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants decreased by 27.89 tons to 1010.3 tons, the steel mill inventory increased by 4.22 tons to 801.3 tons, the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 2.48 tons to 305.31 tons, and the inventory at major ports increased by 3 tons to 294.5 tons. Upstream mines and coal washing plants accumulated inventory, steel mills accumulated inventory, coking plants reduced inventory, and the purchasing sentiment weakened significantly [4]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants increased by 27 yuan to 46 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants increased to 72.95% (+ 1.24%), and the daily output increased by 1.09 tons to 63.76 tons. The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.32 tons [5]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.09% (- 1.1%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills increased to 11.29 days (+ 0.24). Demand still had some resilience [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 6.47 tons to 71.76 tons, the inventory at major ports decreased by 5.6 tons to 187.4 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.18 tons to 625.52 tons. The overall social inventory of coke increased slightly [5]. Part II: Macro - real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, national real - estate new construction, construction, completion area, sales area cumulative year - on - year, 30 large - city weekly commercial housing transaction area, steel industry purchasing managers' index (PMI), and manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), but no specific analysis is provided [7][11][14][18]. Part III: Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks various indicators such as the procurement price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the spot price comparison of mainstream coking coal nationwide, coking coal basis spreads, the daily output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the blast furnace operating rate and hot metal output of steel mills, the coking coal inventory of mines, coal washing plants, steel mills, coking plants, and ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in steel mills and coking plants, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicle number at the Ganqimaodu Port, but no specific analysis is provided [21][26][32][35][39][42][44][48][52][55]. Part IV: Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks various indicators such as the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the coke spot price adjustment schedule, the spot price comparison of coke, coke basis spreads, the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the coke inventory of coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports, and the available days of coke inventory in steel mills, but no specific analysis is provided [60][62][63][67][74][77][80][84][88].