期货研究报告 2025年11月17日 周报 双焦：周末提涨落地，供应延续下滑 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周国内市场炼焦煤、焦炭价格震荡运行。周五河北、山东等地主流钢厂对焦炭 价格招标上调，涨幅为50-55元/吨，周末执行，焦炭第四轮提涨落地。虽然涨价四轮，但涨幅不及焦煤，焦 化厂现在普遍利润一般，出货节奏顺畅，焦企保持低库存运行。 展望：供应端，山西部分前期因井下原因生产受限的煤矿产量稍有恢复，但仍有因检查以及换工作面等 因素停减产的煤矿，国内供应依旧偏紧。需求端，焦炭产量延续下滑，中下游经过前期补库后采购有所放缓， 上游煤矿小幅累库，总体压力较小。整体上，盘面承压运行带动现货情绪转弱，竞拍流拍及降价煤矿增多， 但基本面支撑仍在，预计焦煤价格震荡运行。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦 ...

焦煤焦炭周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 矿山产量增加 双焦震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 下游：钢厂铁水产量反弹，煤焦需求增加。钢厂焦炭产 量小幅增加，库存回落，可用天水减少。 ⚫ 中游：焦化企业持续亏损，生产意愿一般。上周第四轮 提涨基本落地，因焦煤偏强焦企的亏损增加，焦炭产量 减少。 ⚫ 上游：煤矿方面，矿山生产有所加快，焦煤供应增加， 有力缓解了供应紧张情况。523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定 产能利用率为86.3%，环比+2.5%。原煤日均产量192万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight in the short term due to stricter safety inspections and planned shutdowns of some mines. The import volume of coking coal is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The demand for coking coal is under pressure as coke enterprises' production is restricted. The coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and short - term operations are recommended. [17][22][62] - The supply of coke is gradually tightening due to the approaching military parade and the implementation of production restrictions in some regions. The demand for coke is high in the short term but is expected to face production restrictions in the future. The coke futures market is under pressure, and short - term operations are recommended. [42][58][62] Summary by Directory 1. Double - Coking Market Review - It presents the weekly market review of double - coking main contracts, but specific review content is not detailed in the provided text. [8] 2. Coking Coal Fundamental Overview Coking Coal Production - In July, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 1.229 million tons. From January to July, the output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. As of August 29, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 75.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17%. The supply of coking coal remains tight in the short term. [17] Coking Coal Import - From January to July 2025, China imported 62.4453 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 7.98%. The monthly import volume of US coking coal has been zero, and the import volume of Australian coal has increased slightly year - on - year but accounts for a relatively small proportion. Since August, the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal has rebounded to a high level, and the import volume of coking coal is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. [22] Port Inventory - The total coking coal inventory of six ports was 2.7535 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 138,600 tons. [25] Coke Enterprise Inventory - The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coke enterprises was 8.1987 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,700 tons. Coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is at a relatively high level, and procurement has become more cautious. [30] Steel Mill Inventory - The coking coal inventory of sample steel mills was 8.1185 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand, and the in - plant coking coal inventory remains flat. [33] 3. Coke Fundamental Overview Coke Supply - In July, China's coke output was 41.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 291.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, with the growth rate decreasing by 0.2% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of sample coke enterprises was 72.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47%. Coke supply is gradually tightening. [37][42] Coke Enterprise Inventory - As of this Friday, the total coke inventory of independent coke enterprises was 398,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons. The real demand of blast furnaces for raw materials is at a high level, and downstream procurement is based on demand. Inventory has stopped decreasing and has slightly accumulated week - on - week. [46] Port Inventory - As of this Friday, the total port coke inventory was 2.1209 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,300 tons. Port inventory fluctuates within a narrow range. [50] Steel Mill Inventory - The coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 610,070 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,800 tons. Blast furnace operation remains at a high level, and the momentum for inventory increase is slowing down. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand. [53] Coke Demand - From January to July 2025, the national pig iron output was 505.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. In July, the pig iron output was 70.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4013 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,200 tons. [58] 4. Double - Coking Future Outlook - For coking coal, the supply is tight in the short term, and the demand is under pressure. The futures market fluctuates at a low level, and short - term operations are recommended. For coke, the supply is tightening, and the demand is expected to face production restrictions in the future. The futures market is under pressure, and short - term operations are recommended. [62]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for coking coal and coke has experienced a price decline since mid-August, but supply-side contraction expectations remain, leading to a potentially strong market outlook for the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since mid-August, coking coal and coke prices have generally retreated after a previous surge [1]. - As of August 22, the main coking coal futures contract closed at 1162 yuan/ton, reflecting a 14% decline from its recent peak [2]. - The average ex-factory price for Shanxi's premium coking coal is reported at 1400 to 1450 yuan/ton, while Shandong's gas coal is at 960 to 990 yuan/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current coal production is normal, but policies aimed at reducing capacity and inspections are expected to lead to supply-side contractions in the coal industry [2][3]. - The seventh round of coke price increases began on August 18, with expectations of further price adjustments due to supply constraints [3]. - As of August 21, the average operating load of 104 independent coking enterprises was 74.65%, slightly down by 0.13 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Price Support Factors - Limited production notifications have been issued for coking plants in Shandong and Hebei, indicating a potential reduction in coke supply [4]. - The average available days of coke inventory at 45 major steel mills is 7.28 days, showing a slight decrease, which suggests a tight supply situation [4]. - Despite recent price increases, the cost pressures on coking enterprises have eased due to falling coking coal prices, but limited production notifications may tighten supply further [4].