博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 供需偏弱，双焦持续走弱 双焦周报 20251215 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 第 一 部 分 市 场 观 点 焦煤基本面 弘业期货研究院 HOLLY FUTURES INSIGHTS 数据来源：Wind、Mysteel、弘业期货研究院 • （1）供给：523家样本矿山开工率85.31%（-0.28%），523家样本矿山精煤日均产量75万吨（-0.37），314家洗煤 厂产能利用率38.21%（+1.68%），精煤日均产量27.92万吨（+0.8），矿山开工率和矿山精煤日均产量环比继续回 落，洗煤厂产能利用率和精煤产量小幅回升。进口煤方面，上周甘其毛都口岸蒙煤通关量小幅回落维持高位，整 体供应恢复缓慢。 • （2）需求：247家钢厂铁水日产量229.2万吨（-3.1），高炉开工率78.63%（-1.53%），钢厂炼焦煤可用天数 12.82天（-0.06），230家独立焦化厂炼焦煤可用天数13.2天（+0.52），钢厂高炉开工率和铁水日均产量持续下 滑，钢厂炼焦煤可用天数微降，焦化厂炼焦煤可用天数回升，需求持续走弱，下游采购意愿低 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market last week saw a slight increase in supply, a decline in demand from a high level, and weak purchasing sentiment. The overall supply recovery was slow with limited increments. Although the daily output of clean coal increased slightly, the market sentiment was poor, leading to a continuous decline in the futures price. However, due to the low current valuation, low supply, and potential winter storage demand, the futures price is expected to stop falling and rebound. Attention should be paid to subsequent macro - policy expectations and safety inspection intensity [4]. - The coke market is weak, with the first round of price cuts initiated by some steel mills. Supply is increasing as environmental controls ease and coke enterprise profits expand. Demand is weakening as steel mill blast furnace maintenance continues and terminal demand enters the off - season. The supply - demand balance is moving towards looseness, but due to the relatively high blast furnace operating rate of steel mills and winter storage demand, the coke at a relatively low price still has resilience and is expected to stop falling and rebound following the coking coal futures price in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment disturbances [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Part I: Market View Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines decreased to 86.01% (- 0.93%), but the daily output of clean coal increased by 0.61 tons to 76.41 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants decreased to 36.32% (- 1.24%), and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 1.05 tons to 26.58 tons. Recently, Mongolian coal customs clearance has returned to normal, and the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port last week rebounded to a high level, increasing overall supply slightly [4]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.09% (- 1.1%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills increased slightly to 13.01 days (+ 0.04), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants decreased to 12.84 days (- 0.6). Demand declined slightly, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm [4]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased by 38 tons to 223.92 tons, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants decreased by 27.89 tons to 1010.3 tons, the steel mill inventory increased by 4.22 tons to 801.3 tons, the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 2.48 tons to 305.31 tons, and the inventory at major ports increased by 3 tons to 294.5 tons. Upstream mines and coal washing plants accumulated inventory, steel mills accumulated inventory, coking plants reduced inventory, and the purchasing sentiment weakened significantly [4]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants increased by 27 yuan to 46 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants increased to 72.95% (+ 1.24%), and the daily output increased by 1.09 tons to 63.76 tons. The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.32 tons [5]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.09% (- 1.1%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills increased to 11.29 days (+ 0.24). Demand still had some resilience [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 6.47 tons to 71.76 tons, the inventory at major ports decreased by 5.6 tons to 187.4 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.18 tons to 625.52 tons. The overall social inventory of coke increased slightly [5]. Part II: Macro - real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, national real - estate new construction, construction, completion area, sales area cumulative year - on - year, 30 large - city weekly commercial housing transaction area, steel industry purchasing managers' index (PMI), and manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), but no specific analysis is provided [7][11][14][18]. Part III: Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks various indicators such as the procurement price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the spot price comparison of mainstream coking coal nationwide, coking coal basis spreads, the daily output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the blast furnace operating rate and hot metal output of steel mills, the coking coal inventory of mines, coal washing plants, steel mills, coking plants, and ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in steel mills and coking plants, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicle number at the Ganqimaodu Port, but no specific analysis is provided [21][26][32][35][39][42][44][48][52][55]. Part IV: Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks various indicators such as the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the coke spot price adjustment schedule, the spot price comparison of coke, coke basis spreads, the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the coke inventory of coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports, and the available days of coke inventory in steel mills, but no specific analysis is provided [60][62][63][67][74][77][80][84][88].

期货研究报告 2025年11月17日 周报 双焦：周末提涨落地，供应延续下滑 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周国内市场炼焦煤、焦炭价格震荡运行。周五河北、山东等地主流钢厂对焦炭 价格招标上调，涨幅为50-55元/吨，周末执行，焦炭第四轮提涨落地。虽然涨价四轮，但涨幅不及焦煤，焦 化厂现在普遍利润一般，出货节奏顺畅，焦企保持低库存运行。 展望：供应端，山西部分前期因井下原因生产受限的煤矿产量稍有恢复，但仍有因检查以及换工作面等 因素停减产的煤矿，国内供应依旧偏紧。需求端，焦炭产量延续下滑，中下游经过前期补库后采购有所放缓， 上游煤矿小幅累库，总体压力较小。整体上，盘面承压运行带动现货情绪转弱，竞拍流拍及降价煤矿增多， 但基本面支撑仍在，预计焦煤价格震荡运行。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦 ...

焦煤焦炭周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 矿山产量增加 双焦震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 下游：钢厂铁水产量反弹，煤焦需求增加。钢厂焦炭产 量小幅增加，库存回落，可用天水减少。 ⚫ 中游：焦化企业持续亏损，生产意愿一般。上周第四轮 提涨基本落地，因焦煤偏强焦企的亏损增加，焦炭产量 减少。 ⚫ 上游：煤矿方面，矿山生产有所加快，焦煤供应增加， 有力缓解了供应紧张情况。523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定 产能利用率为86.3%，环比+2.5%。原煤日均产量192万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight in the short term due to stricter safety inspections and planned shutdowns of some mines. The import volume of coking coal is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The demand for coking coal is under pressure as coke enterprises' production is restricted. The coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and short - term operations are recommended. [17][22][62] - The supply of coke is gradually tightening due to the approaching military parade and the implementation of production restrictions in some regions. The demand for coke is high in the short term but is expected to face production restrictions in the future. The coke futures market is under pressure, and short - term operations are recommended. [42][58][62] Summary by Directory 1. Double - Coking Market Review - It presents the weekly market review of double - coking main contracts, but specific review content is not detailed in the provided text. [8] 2. Coking Coal Fundamental Overview Coking Coal Production - In July, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 1.229 million tons. From January to July, the output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. As of August 29, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 75.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17%. The supply of coking coal remains tight in the short term. [17] Coking Coal Import - From January to July 2025, China imported 62.4453 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 7.98%. The monthly import volume of US coking coal has been zero, and the import volume of Australian coal has increased slightly year - on - year but accounts for a relatively small proportion. Since August, the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal has rebounded to a high level, and the import volume of coking coal is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. [22] Port Inventory - The total coking coal inventory of six ports was 2.7535 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 138,600 tons. [25] Coke Enterprise Inventory - The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coke enterprises was 8.1987 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,700 tons. Coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is at a relatively high level, and procurement has become more cautious. [30] Steel Mill Inventory - The coking coal inventory of sample steel mills was 8.1185 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand, and the in - plant coking coal inventory remains flat. [33] 3. Coke Fundamental Overview Coke Supply - In July, China's coke output was 41.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 291.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, with the growth rate decreasing by 0.2% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of sample coke enterprises was 72.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47%. Coke supply is gradually tightening. [37][42] Coke Enterprise Inventory - As of this Friday, the total coke inventory of independent coke enterprises was 398,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons. The real demand of blast furnaces for raw materials is at a high level, and downstream procurement is based on demand. Inventory has stopped decreasing and has slightly accumulated week - on - week. [46] Port Inventory - As of this Friday, the total port coke inventory was 2.1209 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,300 tons. Port inventory fluctuates within a narrow range. [50] Steel Mill Inventory - The coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 610,070 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,800 tons. Blast furnace operation remains at a high level, and the momentum for inventory increase is slowing down. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand. [53] Coke Demand - From January to July 2025, the national pig iron output was 505.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. In July, the pig iron output was 70.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4013 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,200 tons. [58] 4. Double - Coking Future Outlook - For coking coal, the supply is tight in the short term, and the demand is under pressure. The futures market fluctuates at a low level, and short - term operations are recommended. For coke, the supply is tightening, and the demand is expected to face production restrictions in the future. The futures market is under pressure, and short - term operations are recommended. [62]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for coking coal and coke has experienced a price decline since mid-August, but supply-side contraction expectations remain, leading to a potentially strong market outlook for the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since mid-August, coking coal and coke prices have generally retreated after a previous surge [1]. - As of August 22, the main coking coal futures contract closed at 1162 yuan/ton, reflecting a 14% decline from its recent peak [2]. - The average ex-factory price for Shanxi's premium coking coal is reported at 1400 to 1450 yuan/ton, while Shandong's gas coal is at 960 to 990 yuan/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current coal production is normal, but policies aimed at reducing capacity and inspections are expected to lead to supply-side contractions in the coal industry [2][3]. - The seventh round of coke price increases began on August 18, with expectations of further price adjustments due to supply constraints [3]. - As of August 21, the average operating load of 104 independent coking enterprises was 74.65%, slightly down by 0.13 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Price Support Factors - Limited production notifications have been issued for coking plants in Shandong and Hebei, indicating a potential reduction in coke supply [4]. - The average available days of coke inventory at 45 major steel mills is 7.28 days, showing a slight decrease, which suggests a tight supply situation [4]. - Despite recent price increases, the cost pressures on coking enterprises have eased due to falling coking coal prices, but limited production notifications may tighten supply further [4].