Demand - In 2025, national fixed asset investment is expected to decrease by 3.8% year-on-year, with a widening decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to January-November [18][19] - Manufacturing investment is projected to grow by 0.6% year-on-year, a slowdown of 1.3 percentage points from January-November [18] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to decline by 2.2%, with a 1.1 percentage point increase in the rate of decline compared to January-November [18] - Real estate development investment is expected to drop by 17.2% year-on-year, with a 1.3 percentage point increase in the decline rate compared to January-November [18] - January average weekly demand for rebar is 1.82 million tons, down 12% month-on-month, while hot-rolled coil demand is 3.11 million tons, up 1% month-on-month [18][19] - February demand is expected to stagnate due to the Spring Festival holiday [18][19] Supply - In 2025, China's crude steel production is projected to be 961 million tons, a decrease of 44.22 million tons or 4.4% year-on-year [19] - Pig iron production is expected to be 836 million tons, down 25.86 million tons or 3% year-on-year [19] - January production saw a slight rebound, with molten iron production increasing by 0.55 million tons [19] - February is expected to see stable production for long-process steel mills, while electric arc furnace plants will gradually shut down for the holiday [19] Inventory - In January, inventory of the five major steel products increased by 463,600 tons, with rebar inventory rising by 535,000 tons and hot-rolled coil inventory decreasing by 153,800 tons [19] - Total inventory of the five products increased by 1.4615 million tons year-on-year [19] - February is expected to see accelerated inventory accumulation due to stagnant demand and high production levels [19] Exports - In December 2025, China exported 11.301 million tons of steel, an increase of 1.321 million tons or 13.2% month-on-month [20] - Cumulative steel exports for 2025 reached 119.019 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [20] - The implementation of the steel product export license management system from January 1, 2026, may lead to a noticeable decline in export volumes in January and February [20] Costs - In January, iron ore prices fluctuated, while coke prices saw an initial increase followed by a decline, leading to a slight narrowing of profits for long-process steel mills and an expansion of losses for short-process mills [20] - The profit margin for 247 steel mills is currently at 39.39%, with raw material replenishment nearing completion [20] Summary - The steel market in January was characterized by weak demand and insufficient driving forces, leading to narrow price fluctuations [21] - February is expected to see increased supply pressure due to stagnant demand and high production levels, with inventory accumulation expected to accelerate [21] - The overall market sentiment remains somewhat positive due to a strong atmosphere for price increases in the commodity market [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream steel mills are at a high level of pre - holiday maintenance, with weak hot metal production. Combined with the off - season of terminal demand, the demand for raw materials is poor. The coke production of steel mills has been maintained, with a slight increase in daily average coke output and a significant increase in inventory. The profitability of steel mills has decreased. [1][5] - In the middle reaches, the coking profit has rebounded, but pre - holiday production cuts by coking enterprises have increased, resulting in a decrease in coke output. The national average profit per ton of coke is - 55 (up 11 compared to the previous period) yuan/ton. [1][5] - In the upstream, the output of domestic coal mines has declined before the Spring Festival, the inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the supply pressure has eased. [1][6] - Overall, due to the impact of environmental protection policies in some regions and the pre - holiday shutdown of upstream coal mines, the supply of coking coal and coke has shrunk. On the downstream side, affected by the weakening demand in the off - season and the increase in steel mill maintenance, the hot metal production remains at a low level, and the steel mill's coke inventory has accumulated. Although there is still a certain expectation of inventory replenishment before the holiday, the overall driving force is limited. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate. [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3128 | - 14 | - 0.45 | 5036448 | 2376275 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot Rolled Coil | 3288 | - 17 | - 0.51 | 1922037 | 1547118 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 791.5 | - 3.5 | - 0.44 | 1277262 | 555392 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1155.5 | - 1.5 | - 0.13 | 4894069 | 616871 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1721.5 | - 0.5 | - 0.03 | 96984 | 38611 | Yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - **Downstream**: The steel mills are at a high level of pre - holiday maintenance, with weak hot metal production. The profitability of steel mills has decreased. The daily average hot metal output is 227.98 tons, a decrease of 0.12 tons compared to the previous week. The daily average coke output is 47.01 (up 0.11 compared to the previous period) tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 85.91% (up 0.2). The coke inventory is 678.19 (up 16.55) tons, and the available days of coke are 12.54 days. [5] - **Middle Reaches**: The coking profit has rebounded, but pre - holiday production cuts by coking enterprises have increased. The national average profit per ton of coke is - 55 (up 11 compared to the previous period) yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 71.86% (down 0.55), the daily average coke output is 62.84 (down 0.47) tons, and the coke inventory is 84.39 (up 2.94) tons. [1][5] - **Upstream**: The output of domestic coal mines has declined before the Spring Festival, the inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the supply pressure has eased. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples is 89.1%, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the previous period. The daily average output of raw coal is 197.8 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons compared to the previous period. The raw coal inventory is 549.6 tons, a decrease of 10.9 tons compared to the previous period. The daily average output of clean coal is 77.1 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons compared to the previous period. The clean coal inventory is 267.2 tons, a decrease of 7.2 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports nationwide has decreased by 15 tons, and the inventory of coke at 18 ports has decreased by 6.19 tons. [1][6] 3.3 Industry News - Mysteel surveyed the Spring Festival holiday situation of 523 coking coal mines across the country. Currently, there are 395 coal mines in production, with a total production capacity of 7.57 billion tons. Among the 395 coal mines in production, 388 coal mines have plans to stop production during the holiday, with a production - stopping capacity of 7.44 billion tons, affecting 1.868 million tons of raw coal output. [13] - On January 28, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions raised the coke purchase price for the first time. The price of wet - quenched coke was raised by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of dry - quenched coke was raised by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on January 30, 2026. [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the spot price trends of coking coal and coke, the daily average output of independent coking plants and steel mills, capacity utilization rates, inventory situations, and ton - coke profits in different regions. [9][14][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market last week saw slow supply growth, continuous decline in demand, and weak purchasing sentiment. The domestic supply was affected by factors such as production cuts in individual coal mines, with the main - producing area mine operating rate dropping to 85.31%, and overall supply recovery was slow. Imported Mongolian coal clearance decreased slightly but remained at a high level. On the demand side, the daily hot metal output continued to decline, and with the deepening of the off - season for terminal demand, there was more room for the decline of hot metal output. Affected by the second round of coke price cuts, downstream purchasing sentiment was low. The inventory structure was differentiated, with upstream mines and coal - washing plants accumulating inventory, coking plants also accumulating inventory, and steel mills' inventory slightly decreasing. Overall, the coking coal supply was stable while demand was weak, with poor downstream purchasing sentiment, maintaining a weak operation. However, due to the large short - term decline, there was a demand for a technical rebound, and later attention should be paid to the winter storage and replenishment demand [4]. - For coke, the second round of price cuts was implemented, squeezing the profits of coke enterprises. Recently, many places launched emergency response measures for heavy pollution weather, and some coke enterprises increased production cuts. On the demand side, steel mills' inventories were relatively reasonable, but there were more blast furnace overhauls, and steel prices were weak, reducing the rigid demand for coke. Currently, the coke supply - demand structure was weak, inventory was at a medium level, and the weakening of finished product prices reduced the demand for raw material replenishment. The coke price was running weakly. Similar to coking coal, due to the large short - term decline, there was a demand for a technical rebound, and attention should be paid to the winter storage and replenishment demand [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Part One: Market Views Coking Coal - **Supply**: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 85.31% (-0.28%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 750,000 tons (-3700). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal - washing plants was 38.21% (+1.68%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 279,200 tons (+8000). The operating rate and daily output of mines continued to decline, while the capacity utilization rate and output of coal - washing plants increased slightly. The clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased slightly last week but remained at a high level, and overall supply recovery was slow [4]. - **Demand**: The daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.292 million tons (-31,000), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.63% (-1.53%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills were 12.82 days (-0.06), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 13.2 days (+0.52). The blast furnace operating rate and daily hot metal output of steel mills continued to decline, the available days of coking coal in steel mills slightly decreased, and the available days of coking coal in coking plants increased. Demand continued to weaken, and downstream purchasing willingness was low [4]. - **Inventory**: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2553,100 tons (+83,000), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1.0373 billion tons (+28.1 million), the steel mill inventory was 794.65 million tons (-3.62 million), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 322.37 million tons (+0.97 million), and the inventory of major ports was 307.5 million tons (+11 million). Upstream mines and coal - washing plants accumulated inventory, downstream steel mills slightly reduced inventory, coking plants accumulated inventory, purchasing sentiment weakened, and the inventory of major ports continued to rise [4]. Coke - **Supply**: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was 44 yuan/ton (+14). The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 73.16% (-0.68%), the daily average output was 639,800 tons (-5500), and the daily average output of coke in 247 steel mills was 466,100 tons (-1000). Although the average profit per ton of coke in coking plants rebounded, the second - round price cut of coke was implemented, profit expectations shrank, and many places launched emergency response measures for heavy pollution weather, with some coke enterprises increasing production cuts. The capacity utilization rate and output decreased slightly, and the coke output of steel mills decreased slightly [5]. - **Demand**: The daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.292 million tons (-31,000), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.63% (-1.53%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 11.66 days (+0.37). The daily hot metal output and blast furnace operating rate continued to decline, the inventory usage cycle of steel mills for coke increased, and the rigid demand for coke weakened [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 873,200 tons (+108,800), the inventory of major ports was 1.812 billion tons (-0.1 million), and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 635.28 million tons (+10.03 million). The inventory of coking plants and steel mills increased month - on - month, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the overall social inventory of coke increased [5]. Part Two: Macroeconomic and Real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, and the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the steel industry and the manufacturing industry, but no specific analysis is provided [7][11][14][18]. Part Three: Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - It includes data on the purchase price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the comparison of mainstream coking coal spot prices nationwide, the basis tracking of coking coal contracts, the daily average output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, the daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal - washing plants, the daily hot metal output and blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide, the inventory of 314 sample coal - washing plants and 523 sample mines, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills and all - sample independent coking plants nationwide, the inventory of imported coking coal at ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in 247 steel mills and 230 independent coking plants nationwide, and the number of Mongolian coal clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port, but no specific analysis is provided [21][25][31][36][38][41][43][46][50][53]. Part Four: Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - It contains data on the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the price adjustment schedule of coke spot, the comparison of coke spot prices, the basis tracking of coke contracts, the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, the daily average output and capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises, 247 steel mills, and ports, and the available days of coke inventory in 247 steel mills, but no specific analysis is provided [57][59][61][64][71][74][77][82][86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market last week saw a slight increase in supply, a decline in demand from a high level, and weak purchasing sentiment. The overall supply recovery was slow with limited increments. Although the daily output of clean coal increased slightly, the market sentiment was poor, leading to a continuous decline in the futures price. However, due to the low current valuation, low supply, and potential winter storage demand, the futures price is expected to stop falling and rebound. Attention should be paid to subsequent macro - policy expectations and safety inspection intensity [4]. - The coke market is weak, with the first round of price cuts initiated by some steel mills. Supply is increasing as environmental controls ease and coke enterprise profits expand. Demand is weakening as steel mill blast furnace maintenance continues and terminal demand enters the off - season. The supply - demand balance is moving towards looseness, but due to the relatively high blast furnace operating rate of steel mills and winter storage demand, the coke at a relatively low price still has resilience and is expected to stop falling and rebound following the coking coal futures price in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment disturbances [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Part I: Market View Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines decreased to 86.01% (- 0.93%), but the daily output of clean coal increased by 0.61 tons to 76.41 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants decreased to 36.32% (- 1.24%), and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 1.05 tons to 26.58 tons. Recently, Mongolian coal customs clearance has returned to normal, and the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port last week rebounded to a high level, increasing overall supply slightly [4]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.09% (- 1.1%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills increased slightly to 13.01 days (+ 0.04), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants decreased to 12.84 days (- 0.6). Demand declined slightly, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm [4]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased by 38 tons to 223.92 tons, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants decreased by 27.89 tons to 1010.3 tons, the steel mill inventory increased by 4.22 tons to 801.3 tons, the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 2.48 tons to 305.31 tons, and the inventory at major ports increased by 3 tons to 294.5 tons. Upstream mines and coal washing plants accumulated inventory, steel mills accumulated inventory, coking plants reduced inventory, and the purchasing sentiment weakened significantly [4]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants increased by 27 yuan to 46 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants increased to 72.95% (+ 1.24%), and the daily output increased by 1.09 tons to 63.76 tons. The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.32 tons [5]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.09% (- 1.1%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills increased to 11.29 days (+ 0.24). Demand still had some resilience [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 6.47 tons to 71.76 tons, the inventory at major ports decreased by 5.6 tons to 187.4 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.18 tons to 625.52 tons. The overall social inventory of coke increased slightly [5]. Part II: Macro - real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, national real - estate new construction, construction, completion area, sales area cumulative year - on - year, 30 large - city weekly commercial housing transaction area, steel industry purchasing managers' index (PMI), and manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), but no specific analysis is provided [7][11][14][18]. Part III: Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks various indicators such as the procurement price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the spot price comparison of mainstream coking coal nationwide, coking coal basis spreads, the daily output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the blast furnace operating rate and hot metal output of steel mills, the coking coal inventory of mines, coal washing plants, steel mills, coking plants, and ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in steel mills and coking plants, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicle number at the Ganqimaodu Port, but no specific analysis is provided [21][26][32][35][39][42][44][48][52][55]. Part IV: Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks various indicators such as the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the coke spot price adjustment schedule, the spot price comparison of coke, coke basis spreads, the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the coke inventory of coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports, and the available days of coke inventory in steel mills, but no specific analysis is provided [60][62][63][67][74][77][80][84][88].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market fluctuated. The fourth round of coke price increase was implemented over the weekend, with a rise of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [2]. - Although there have been four rounds of price increases, the increase is less than that of coking coal. Coking plants generally have average profits, smooth shipment rhythms, and maintain low - inventory operations [2]. - On the supply side, coal production in some mines in Shanxi has slightly recovered, but domestic supply remains tight due to factors such as inspections and changing working faces. On the demand side, coke production continues to decline, and the procurement of the middle and lower reaches has slowed down after restocking. The upstream coal mines have a small inventory build - up with relatively low pressure. Overall, the futures market pressure has weakened the spot market sentiment, but the fundamental support remains. It is expected that coking coal prices will fluctuate [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, coking coal and coke prices in the domestic market fluctuated. The fourth - round coke price increase was implemented over the weekend, with a 50 - 55 yuan/ton rise [2]. - Coking plants have average profits, smooth shipments, and low - inventory operations. The supply is tight, and demand has slowed down. The futures market pressure has weakened the spot market sentiment, but the fundamentals support price fluctuations [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The total coking coal inventory was 2157.64 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.95 million tons (-0.18%). The total coke inventory was 1758.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.4 million tons (-0.87%). The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 236.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.66 million tons (1.14%). The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 34 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton (54.55%) [4]. Other Data Presentations - The report presents various data through multiple figures, including the 5 - day intraday chart of coking coal and coke futures contracts, the average price of coking coal varieties, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian coking coal, the price of metallurgical coke, the basis of coking coal and coke, the daily output of clean coal, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal, the inventory and available days of coking coal and coke, the daily output of coke, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises, and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills [6][8][11][14][16][19][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Downstream: Steel mills' hot metal production rebounded, increasing the demand for coking coal and coke. Steel mills' coke production slightly increased, inventory declined, and available days decreased. The profitability rate of steel mills last week was 38.96%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and 18.62 percentage points from the same period last year. The daily average hot metal production was 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons from the previous week and 0.94 tons from the same period last year. The daily average coke production was 46.17 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.08 tons), with a capacity utilization rate of 85.14% (an increase of 0.15%). Coke inventory was 622.4 tons (a decrease of 4.24 tons), and the available days for coke were 11.06 days (a decrease of 0.01 days) [1][5]. - Midstream: Coking enterprises continued to operate at a loss, and their production willingness was average. The fourth round of price increases was basically implemented last week. Due to the strong coking coal, the losses of coking enterprises increased, and coke production decreased. The average national profit per ton of coke was - 34 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton), and the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was - 20 yuan/ton (a decrease of 17 yuan/ton). The capacity utilization rate last week was 71.64% (a decrease of 0.67%), and the daily average coke production was 63 tons (a decrease of 0.59 tons) [1][6]. - Upstream: In the coal mines, production accelerated, and the supply of coking coal increased, effectively alleviating the supply shortage. The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 86.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.5%. The daily average production of raw coal was 1.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,000 tons. The raw coal inventory was 4.346 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,000 tons. The daily average production of clean coal was 757,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,000 tons, and the clean coal inventory was 1.651 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons [1][6]. - Overall: Coal mine production resumed, and coking coal production rebounded from a low level. The fourth round of coke price increases was implemented, and coking enterprise production was relatively stable. The hot metal production of downstream steel mills increased week - on - week, but steel entered the off - season, and the expected demand for raw materials weakened. Overall, the supply of coking coal and coke increased marginally, market sentiment declined, and the futures prices were expected to show a volatile trend [1][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3053 | 19 | 0.63 | 4907951 | 2731199 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3256 | 11 | 0.34 | 1702672 | 1302507 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 772.5 | 12.0 | 1.58 | 1423894 | 494127 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1192.0 | - 78.0 | - 6.14 | 5024636 | 941024 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1669.5 | - 87.0 | - 4.95 | 107554 | 48736 | Yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and weakened. Although the hot metal production of steel mills rebounded, the increase in mine production alleviated the expected supply shortage of coking coal and coke, and the futures prices fluctuated at high levels [5]. 3.3 Industry News - From January to October 2025, Mongolia's cumulative coal export volume was 69.7343 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.81%. The export value was 4.487 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 39.43%. The average export price was 64.35 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 43.82 US dollars/ton [10]. - From January to October, the national real estate development investment was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.55253 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.7%. The new housing construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 359.52 million square meters, a decrease of 19.3%. The housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9%. Among them, the residential completion area was 248.66 million square meters, a decrease of 18.9%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%. Among them, the residential sales area decreased by 7.0%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 6.9017 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. Among them, the residential sales volume decreased by 9.4% [10]. - From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.08914 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 4.9% year - on - year. Among them, mining investment increased by 3.8%, manufacturing investment increased by 2.7%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 12.5%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline transportation investment increased by 13.8%, water transportation investment increased by 9.4%, and railway transportation investment increased by 3.0% [10]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the basis trend of coke, the futures and monthly spread trend of hot - rolled coils, the daily average production of independent coking plants, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises, the daily average hot metal production, and various inventory and profit - related charts [8][12][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight in the short term due to stricter safety inspections and planned shutdowns of some mines. The import volume of coking coal is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The demand for coking coal is under pressure as coke enterprises' production is restricted. The coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and short - term operations are recommended. [17][22][62] - The supply of coke is gradually tightening due to the approaching military parade and the implementation of production restrictions in some regions. The demand for coke is high in the short term but is expected to face production restrictions in the future. The coke futures market is under pressure, and short - term operations are recommended. [42][58][62] Summary by Directory 1. Double - Coking Market Review - It presents the weekly market review of double - coking main contracts, but specific review content is not detailed in the provided text. [8] 2. Coking Coal Fundamental Overview Coking Coal Production - In July, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 1.229 million tons. From January to July, the output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. As of August 29, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 75.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17%. The supply of coking coal remains tight in the short term. [17] Coking Coal Import - From January to July 2025, China imported 62.4453 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 7.98%. The monthly import volume of US coking coal has been zero, and the import volume of Australian coal has increased slightly year - on - year but accounts for a relatively small proportion. Since August, the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal has rebounded to a high level, and the import volume of coking coal is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. [22] Port Inventory - The total coking coal inventory of six ports was 2.7535 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 138,600 tons. [25] Coke Enterprise Inventory - The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coke enterprises was 8.1987 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,700 tons. Coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is at a relatively high level, and procurement has become more cautious. [30] Steel Mill Inventory - The coking coal inventory of sample steel mills was 8.1185 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand, and the in - plant coking coal inventory remains flat. [33] 3. Coke Fundamental Overview Coke Supply - In July, China's coke output was 41.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 291.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, with the growth rate decreasing by 0.2% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of sample coke enterprises was 72.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47%. Coke supply is gradually tightening. [37][42] Coke Enterprise Inventory - As of this Friday, the total coke inventory of independent coke enterprises was 398,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons. The real demand of blast furnaces for raw materials is at a high level, and downstream procurement is based on demand. Inventory has stopped decreasing and has slightly accumulated week - on - week. [46] Port Inventory - As of this Friday, the total port coke inventory was 2.1209 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,300 tons. Port inventory fluctuates within a narrow range. [50] Steel Mill Inventory - The coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 610,070 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,800 tons. Blast furnace operation remains at a high level, and the momentum for inventory increase is slowing down. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand. [53] Coke Demand - From January to July 2025, the national pig iron output was 505.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. In July, the pig iron output was 70.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4013 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,200 tons. [58] 4. Double - Coking Future Outlook - For coking coal, the supply is tight in the short term, and the demand is under pressure. The futures market fluctuates at a low level, and short - term operations are recommended. For coke, the supply is tightening, and the demand is expected to face production restrictions in the future. The futures market is under pressure, and short - term operations are recommended. [62]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for coking coal and coke has experienced a price decline since mid-August, but supply-side contraction expectations remain, leading to a potentially strong market outlook for the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since mid-August, coking coal and coke prices have generally retreated after a previous surge [1]. - As of August 22, the main coking coal futures contract closed at 1162 yuan/ton, reflecting a 14% decline from its recent peak [2]. - The average ex-factory price for Shanxi's premium coking coal is reported at 1400 to 1450 yuan/ton, while Shandong's gas coal is at 960 to 990 yuan/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current coal production is normal, but policies aimed at reducing capacity and inspections are expected to lead to supply-side contractions in the coal industry [2][3]. - The seventh round of coke price increases began on August 18, with expectations of further price adjustments due to supply constraints [3]. - As of August 21, the average operating load of 104 independent coking enterprises was 74.65%, slightly down by 0.13 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Price Support Factors - Limited production notifications have been issued for coking plants in Shandong and Hebei, indicating a potential reduction in coke supply [4]. - The average available days of coke inventory at 45 major steel mills is 7.28 days, showing a slight decrease, which suggests a tight supply situation [4]. - Despite recent price increases, the cost pressures on coking enterprises have eased due to falling coking coal prices, but limited production notifications may tighten supply further [4].