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中辉期货:螺纹钢早报-20251104
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 03:57
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bearish [1][7] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1][10] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1][13] - **Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bearish [1][17] Core Views of the Report - For rebar, weekly production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, inventory continued to decline, with weak supply and demand in the off - season, and iron water production decreased significantly, and mid - term it will run in a range with potential short - term weakness [1][4][5] - For hot rolled coil, both apparent demand and production recovered, inventory decreased slightly but remained higher than the same period in previous years, and mid - term it will run in a range with potential short - term correction [1][4][5] - For iron ore, iron water production decreased significantly this week due to environmental protection and maintenance, with mills reducing inventory and ports accumulating inventory, and short - term ore prices will fluctuate weakly [1][6][7] - For coke, the second round of price increases has fully landed, and the expectation of the third round is strengthening. Although iron water production has declined, the supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and prices will remain strong [1][9][10] - For coking coal, coal mine production and operating rates decreased slightly, supply may tighten in November, and although demand weakened marginally, the supply - demand pattern is still healthy, with prices remaining strong [1][12][13] - For manganese silicon, production area supply remains high, downstream demand weakened marginally, inventory increased, and short - term cost provides some support, but overall it's bearish [1][16][17] - For ferrosilicon, production area supply remains high, downstream demand weakened marginally, inventory increased significantly, and it's bearish due to the loose fundamentals and potential upward pressure on coal prices [1][16][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Variety View**: Rebar shows weak supply - demand in the off - season with iron water production decline, and hot rolled coil has recovered demand and production but high inventory [4] - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of rebar and hot rolled coil mostly declined, and there were changes in basis, futures spreads, and other indicators [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Rebar has limited upward and downward drivers, running in a mid - term range with potential short - term weakness; hot rolled coil runs in a mid - term range with potential short - term correction [5] Iron Ore - **Variety View**: This week, iron water production decreased significantly due to environmental protection and maintenance, mills reduced inventory, ports accumulated inventory, and external ore arrivals increased significantly, with a neutral - bearish static fundamentals [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish, as production cuts and supply increases put pressure on ore prices [7] Coke - **Variety View**: The second round of price increases has fully landed, the third - round expectation is strengthening, and although iron water production has declined, the supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, with some mills still replenishing inventory [9] - **Market Data**: Futures prices of coke contracts decreased slightly, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as inventory and production [8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [10] Coking Coal - **Variety View**: Coal mine production and operating rates decreased slightly, supply may tighten in November due to over - production checks and political instability in Mongolia, and although demand weakened marginally, the supply - demand pattern is still healthy [12] - **Market Data**: Futures prices of coking coal contracts decreased slightly, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as inventory and production [11] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [13] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Variety View**: For manganese silicon, production area supply is high, downstream demand weakened marginally, and inventory increased; for ferrosilicon, production area supply remains high, downstream demand weakened marginally, and inventory increased significantly [16] - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon had different changes, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as production and inventory [15] - **Operation Suggestion**: For manganese silicon, cautiously bearish with short - term cost support; for ferrosilicon, bearish due to loose fundamentals and potential upward pressure on coal prices [17]