➢ 展望3月，进入"两会"期间，市场对"十五五"规划开局之年的稳增长政策存期待，政策预期上存支撑，但下游需 求尚未完全启动，整体处于"供需双弱"格局，库存仍在累积。关注会议结束，现实供需带来的库存去化情况，会 议期间预计震荡运行为主。从钢材基本面看，受春节假期影响，电弧炉产能利用率回落明显，高炉开工率稳中有升。 因螺纹产量有部分来自于电弧炉工艺，导致2月产量回落明显，热卷主要来自于高炉，产量小幅回升。春节期间，需 求端随着大部分工地和工厂放假，需求回落明显，导致厂内和社会库累库明显。随着春节假期结束，下游陆续复工复 产有望带动库存去化，但由于部分工地要到元宵之后，去库拐点有所推迟。 钢材铁矿月度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2026-02-27 目录 01 后市预判 02 产业动态 03 数据分析 后市研判 PART 01 后市研判 PART 01 ➢ 展望3月，铁矿供强需弱，港口库存高位，使得盘面上方承压，但随着"两会"召开，政策情绪面有扰动叠加节后复 工终端需求仍有回补的预期，使得盘面下方有支撑，价格区间震荡运行为主。从基本面看，2月上旬受热带气旋影 ...

成文日期：20260213 研究品种:沥青 报告周期:周报 研究员：陈博（从业资格号：F03138462; 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022938) 沥青期货周报 1 期货市场 当周沥青期货价格呈现"先稳后跌"走势,前三个交易日维持 3330-3370 元/吨区间震荡，周五受市场情绪及原油价格波动影响, 价格大幅下探至 3251 元/吨低点，最终收于 3280 元/吨。 3 影响因素 需求端：临近春节,下游施工基本停滞,终端采购意愿低迷, 现货市场成交清淡,仅南方部分区域存在少量刚需。 供应端：国内炼厂开工率维持低位，山东部分炼厂计划春节复 产但尚未落地，整体供应变化不大。 4 行情展望 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图 1： 沥青主力合约日 k 图 数据来源:同花顺期货通 短期沥青期价或维持区间震荡。上行驱动主要来自原油价格波 动及地缘风险反复,下行压力则源于库存持续累积及需求疲软。短 期需重点关注原油价格走势、节后需求恢复进度及库存去化情况; 当前市场处于供需双弱阶段，价格波动受情 ...

今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅微幅上涨，沪铅主力合约2604开盘报16715元，高点16805元，低点16700 元，结算价16755元，收盘16795元/吨，涨50元，涨幅0.3%。伦铅最新价报1989美元，跌6.5美元。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报16630-16730元/吨，均价16680元，较前一日价格上涨 20元；广东现货市场1#铅报16585-16685元/吨，均价16635元，较前一日价格持平。今日现货铅市场报 价在16525-16730元/吨之间，对比沪期铅2603合约贴水195-升水10元/吨，沪期铅2604合约贴水235-贴水 30元/吨。 ccmn铅市分析：今日国内现货铅价小跌，今日沪铅维持窄幅震荡、高位整理，主要受宏观多空对冲与 基本面供需僵持共同主导：海外美元震荡、风险偏好中性，国内经济弱复苏、下游复工偏慢，资金以短 线交易为主，缺乏单边驱动；产业端铅精矿加工费低位、冶炼成本刚性支撑，社会库存结构性偏紧，刚 需稳定抵消部分需求走弱，再生铅供给释放偏缓，形成外压内稳、成本托底、需求偏弱的格局。同步来 看，春节后锡产业链冶炼端逐步复产、下游电子焊料与光伏企业集中于复 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-2-24） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：市场将延续供需双弱格局，价格以窄幅震荡为主。节后首周，下游主要以消耗节前库存为主， 采购需求释放有限，难以推动价格上涨，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 每日观点 焦炭： 1、基本面：春节期间，多数焦化企业维持正常生产节奏，未出现明显起伏，受春节物流效率降低影响， 焦企外运受限，厂内库存出现积压，钢厂对焦炭维持按需采购，主动补库意愿薄弱；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1620，基差-62；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存692万吨，港口库存201万吨，独立焦企库存45万吨，总样本库存9 ...

【ccmn.cn铅期货市场】隔夜伦铅收跌，开盘报1996.50美元/吨，高点报1998.50美元，低点报1970美 元，尾盘收于1984美元，跌10.5美元，跌幅0.53%；成交量4638手，持仓量177408手。长江铅业网 (pb.ccmn.cn)今日现货铅价行情预估：隔夜市场突现"双杀"行情！一方面，美国接连爆表的就业数据彻 底"浇灭"了市场的提前降息幻想，强化了美联储维持高利率的预期，导致美元走强、美股重挫，从计价 和风险情绪两端压制大宗商品。另一方面，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）对白银保证金规则的调整触发 了贵金属市场的剧烈去杠杆。在这内外宏观压力共振之下，此前相对沉寂的国内铅价昨日意外成为领跌 焦点，其大幅下挫不仅完美踩中了春节前的资金避险时点，更因兼具突发性、话题性与深刻的宏观背 景，成为市场瞩目的新热点。 春节前夕供需双淡 铅市现货端无支撑 供应端：国内铅冶炼企业维持正常生产节奏，原生铅产能稳定，再生铅企业虽有季节性减产，但整体供 应充足，无明显收缩利好。需求端：下游铅蓄电池企业已完成节前备货，多数企业提前进入放假周期， 开工率持续走低，电动自行车电池、汽车电池需求同步走弱，现货采购仅维持刚需，供 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青春节假期持仓报告：供需双弱，易受原油波动影响 发布日期：2026年2月12日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.0个百分点至24.5%，较去年同期高了0.1个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年2月份国内沥青预计排产193.6万吨，环比减少6.4万吨， 减幅为3.2%，同比减少13.5万吨，减幅为6.5%。上周，临近春节，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌， 其中道路沥青开工环比下跌5个百分点至9%。上周，山东地区在价格上涨后终端需求疲软，其出货量 减少较多，全国出货量环比减少1.33%至21.16万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比小幅下 降，处于近年来同期的最低位。委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，这将影响国内沥青的生 产和成本，有消息称大型贸易商维多中国报价委内瑞拉原油贴水5美元/桶，这比2025年12月份的贴 水13美元/桶大幅缩小，市场消息称Reliance采购约200万桶委油、4月到港，对布伦特折价约-6.50美 元/桶，国内炼厂获得委内瑞拉原油的可能性增加，但预计还是较美国介入前大幅下降，关注国内炼 厂原料短缺情况。本周齐鲁石化、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Before the Spring Festival, the supply of coking coal enters a significant contraction period, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal will also be restricted during the Chinese New Year. The downstream winter storage replenishment is coming to an end, and the market returns to the fundamentals of weak supply and demand. Coking coal is expected to be mainly in a weak consolidation [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Coking coal opened low and moved high during the day, showing a weak trend. The supply of coking coal has significantly contracted before the Spring Festival, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal will be restricted during the Chinese New Year. Some large coal mines will continue to ship during the holiday. According to Mysteel statistics, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples is 86.67%, a decrease of 2.46% compared with the previous period. The daily average output of raw coal reaches 1.9253 million tons. As the holiday approaches, there are more safety inspections and shutdowns in mines, and the downstream winter storage inventory is coming to an end. The inventory of coking coal in mines has decreased, with a weekly decrease of 25,300 tons. Last week, coking enterprises increased their inventory by 676,000 tons, and steel mills increased their inventory by 98,400 tons. Winter storage replenishment is still ongoing, and there are still two weeks of inventory preparation time before the Spring Festival, but it is now approaching the end stage. The trading volume of downstream steel products is not good, the downstream hot metal output has increased by 0.26% compared with the previous period, and the weekly average daily output is 228,580 tons. After the news of Indonesia's production cut and suspension of spot exports fermented last week, the market price corrected, and the market returned to the fundamentals of weak supply and demand. The downstream trading volume is low, mainly for long - term contract delivery. With weak supply and demand, coking coal is expected to be mainly in a weak consolidation [1]. Spot Data - In the spot market, the mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) is reported at 1,280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking raw coal is 1,037 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the closing price of the main contract futures is 1,147 yuan/ton, the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. Fundamental Tracking Supply Data - From January 30 to February 6, the coking coal start - up rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 86.67%, a decrease of 2.46 percentage points compared with the previous period; the daily average output of refined coking coal was 75,450 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons compared with the previous period [4]. Demand Data - From January 30 to February 6, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 63,140 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons compared with the previous period; the daily average output of coke of 247 steel mills was 47,240 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons compared with the previous period. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228,580 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared with the previous period [6].

2026 年 2 月 9 日星期一 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 上周五焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1138.5 元/吨，环比日盘开盘下跌 2.86%；焦炭主力合 约 J2605 收于 1698.5 元/吨，环比日盘开盘下跌 2.27%。周五夜盘，焦煤主力合约收于 | | | | | 1130.5 元/吨，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.70%，焦炭主力合约收于 1683.0 元/吨，环比日盘 | | | | | 收盘下跌 0.91%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、上周，247 家钢厂高炉开工率 79.53%，环比增加 0.53 个百分点，同比增加 1.55 个 | | | | | 百分点；日均铁水产量 228.58 万吨，环比增加 0.60 万吨，同比增加 0.14 万吨。 | | | 焦煤、 | | 2、河北 6 市启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应。石家庄、唐山、保定、廊坊 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The market's core contradiction is that the marginal benefits on the supply side are insufficient to reverse the overall expectation of oversupply, and the demand side fails to provide effective impetus, leading to weak upward price momentum. In the short - term, the price is expected to continue the trend of bottom - building through oscillations [9][34]. - In the current situation of weak supply and demand, it is recommended to conduct range trading, and consider selling a wide - straddle option combination to earn time value [35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract of soda ash futures fluctuated between 1,184 - 1,235 yuan/ton. As of the close of the white - trading session on February 6, 2026, the main contract SA2605 of soda ash futures dropped 14 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.16%, closing at 1,190 yuan/ton [5][6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - As of February 5, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 774,300 tons, a 0.88 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, a decline of 1.12%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 83.25%, down 0.94% from the previous value of 84.19% [7][10]. - Among them, the production of light soda ash was 360,300 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons; the production of heavy soda ash was 414,000 tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons [10]. - The capacity utilization rate of ammonia - soda process was 88.21%, a 0.78% decrease; the capacity utilization rate of combined - production process was 77.23%, a 2.58% increase; the overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual capacity of 1 million tons or more was 86.47%, a 1.85% decrease [12]. 3.2.2 Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,581,100 tons, a 20,700 - ton increase from Monday, a rise of 1.33%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 835,000 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 746,100 tons, an increase of 23,200 tons [8][15]. - Compared with the previous Thursday, it increased by 36,900 tons, a rise of 2.39%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash increased by 6,900 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash increased by 30,000 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory decreased by 29,770 tons, a decline of 15.85% [15]. 3.2.3 Shipment - As of February 5, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 737,400 tons, a 2.98% decrease from the previous week. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 95.23%, a 1.82 - percentage - point decrease [17]. 3.2.4 Profit - As of February 5, 2026, the theoretical profit of the combined - production process of soda ash in China was - 29 yuan/ton, a 9.43% decrease from the previous week. The price of raw - material mine salt remained stable, the price of thermal coal fluctuated upward, the cost side strengthened, while the market price of soda ash was weak and stable, resulting in a narrow decline in the profit of the combined - production process [20]. - The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process of soda ash was - 88.80 yuan/ton, a 0.45 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous week. The price of raw - material sea salt remained stable, the price of anthracite coal increased slightly, the cost side strengthened slightly, and the price of soda ash was weak and stable, leading to a narrow decline in the profit of the ammonia - soda process [23]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Situation 3.3.1 Float Glass Industry Output - As of February 5, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 149,800 tons, a 0.79% decrease from the 29th. The weekly output of national float glass from January 30 to February 5, 2026, was 1,055,800 tons, a 0.11% decrease from the previous week and a 3.16% decrease from the same period last year [26]. 3.3.2 Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53,064,000 weight boxes, a 500,000 - weight - box increase from the previous week, a rise of 0.95%, and a 11.77% decrease from the same period last year [29]. - The inventory days were 23.1 days, a 0.3 - day increase from the previous period [29]. 3.4 Price Changes - Various product prices showed different trends. For example, the price of 5500 - kcal thermal coal increased by 4 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; the price of some regional light and heavy soda ash decreased, and the price of float glass decreased by 1 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease [33].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The report predicts that the market for finished products will move in a volatile manner [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Steel Production and Supply - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2858 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.60 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.14 million tons [3] - Six cities in Hebei launched a Level II emergency response for heavy air pollution on February 8 [3] Winter Storage Policy and Market Sentiment - Henan's winter storage policies were gradually introduced, with the mainstream locked - in price at 3,040 yuan/ton, and the post - settlement model extended to the end of March. Some steel mills chose self - storage or on - demand delivery [3] - Merchants' willingness for winter storage was low, generally stocking 1,000 - 2,000 tons. The market was cautious and waiting due to weak expectations of post - holiday demand recovery [3] Excavator Sales - In January 2026, 18,708 excavators of various types were sold, a year - on - year increase of 49.5%. Among them, domestic sales were 8,723 units, a year - on - year increase of 61.4%; exports were 9,985 units, a year - on - year increase of 40.5% [3] Steel Price - At the end of last week, the ex - factory price of common billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan remained stable at 2,910 yuan/ton [3] Market Situation - Last week, finished products fluctuated lower, and the steel market continued to show a situation of weak supply and demand. As the Spring Festival approached, the spot market gradually entered the holiday rhythm. There might still be capital outflows before the holiday, leading to a decline in market trading. The macro - environment was calm and had little impact on prices [3]