本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 203.40 -3.62 207.02 -3.62 236.26 -32.86 高炉产能利用率（%） 90.55 -0.10 90.65 -0.10 87.51 3.04 表观需求量 146.00 -95.07 241.07 -95.07 248.50 -102.50 钢联建材成交周均值 11.99 1.88 10.11 1.88 13.23 -1.24 总库存 659.65 57.40 602.25 57.40 440.85 218.80 厂内库存 192.34 33.43 158.91 33.43 138.47 53.87 社会库存 467.31 23.97 443.34 23.97 302.38 164.93 螺纹钢周度数据（20251010） 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 70 75 80 85 90 95 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is that cost support has emerged, and steel prices have stabilized in a volatile manner [1]. - During the holiday, the rebar market continued the situation of weak supply and demand. Supply contracted but the reduction space in the peak season was questionable, and inventory was relatively high. Demand was weak and showed no improvement. The fundamentals had no substantial improvement, and inventory increased significantly during the holiday, putting pressure on steel prices. However, cost support was a positive factor. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the post - holiday demand recovery should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are judged as volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is cost support and price stabilization in a volatile manner [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holiday, the rebar market was in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply from construction steel mills weakened, but the reduction space in the peak season was uncertain, and inventory was relatively high. Demand was weak due to holiday factors and showed no improvement. The fundamentals had no substantial improvement, inventory increased significantly, and steel prices were under pressure. Cost support was a positive factor, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with attention on post - holiday demand recovery [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 10 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 假期累库显著，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 假期建筑钢材现货价格持稳为主，库存增 57.39 万吨，处于往年中性偏高水平，而螺纹钢供需 双弱格局未变，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，产量再度回落，但减量空间有限，且库存偏高，利好效应不 强。与此同时，节前下游需求有所改善，而下游未见好转，需求改 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, expect the fundamental situation to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4] - For urea, due to weak demand and high inventory, the price is expected to move within a range, and it is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6] - For rubber, maintain a long - term bullish view, and suggest waiting and seeing in the short term as it follows the trend of industrial products [11] - For PVC, due to strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - covering rallies [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices, and the styrene price may rebound when the inventory drawdown inflection point appears [16] - For polyethylene, expect the price to oscillate upwards in the long term, and suggest waiting and seeing in the short term [18] - For polypropylene, due to high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to wait and see [19] - For PX, due to lack of upward drivers, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the subsequent improvement in the terminal market [22] - For PTA, due to high unexpected maintenance and weak long - term outlook, it is recommended to wait and see [23] - For ethylene glycol, due to high supply and expected inventory build - up in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to go short at high prices, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 5.60 yuan/barrel, or 1.15%, to 493.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 8.00 yuan/ton, or 0.29%, to 2795.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 42.00 yuan/ton, or 1.25%, to 3395.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: In the weekly data of Fujeirah Port's oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 6.07 million barrels, a 24.26% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.18 million barrels to 1.82 million barrels, an 8.79% decrease; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.67 million barrels to 6.32 million barrels, a 9.58% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.79 million barrels to 14.21 million barrels, a 16.41% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 16, the 01 contract fell 21 yuan/ton to 2375 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 3 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 83 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is still weak, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. Supply is sufficient, and demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory at ports has reached a new high, while the inventory of inland enterprises is relatively low [4] - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 16, the 01 contract rose 3 yuan/ton to 1686 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 46 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventory is slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and compound fertilizer production has rebounded but is still in the seasonal decline stage. Demand is weak, and exports provide limited support [6] - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Supply**: The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is decreasing, reducing the positive supply factors [8] - **Market Sentiment**: Bulls believe in limited rubber production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal weak demand, and less - than - expected supply benefits [9] - **Industry Conditions**: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The export expectation has declined. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15100 (0) yuan, STR20 was at 1865 (+10) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1865 (0) dollars [11] - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - term bullish view and wait and see in the short term [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 39 yuan to 4960 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4790 (+50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 170 (+11) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 301 (+2) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased, the price of semi - coke remained unchanged, the price of ethylene remained unchanged, and the price of caustic soda decreased [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate also increased. Factory inventory decreased, while social inventory increased. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level for the year, and the valuation pressure is large [13] - **Strategy**: Consider short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - covering rallies [13] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices rose, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level for the same period, with significant upward correction potential [15][16] - **Fundamentals**: The cost - side pure benzene production is fluctuating moderately, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the benzene - ethylene production has been continuously increasing. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene has been significantly decreasing, and the demand - side three - S overall operating rate is fluctuating downward [16] - **Strategy**: Go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and cost support remains [18] - **Supply and Demand**: There are only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven price decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The supply - side still has 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, and the pressure is high [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The demand - side downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [19] - **Strategy**: Wait and see [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 10 yuan to 6762 yuan, and the PX CFR price fell 2 dollars to 834 dollars. The basis was 66 yuan (- 29), and the 11 - 1 spread was 42 yuan (- 4) [21] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China and Asia has increased. Some domestic and overseas plants have increased production or restarted [21] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate has increased, and some plants have restarted [21] - **Inventory**: The inventory decreased month - on - month at the end of July [21] - **Valuation**: The PXN is 228 dollars (- 6), and the naphtha cracking spread is 114 dollars (+6) [21] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the subsequent improvement in the terminal market [22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4688 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4610 yuan, the basis was - 80 yuan (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 46 yuan (- 2) [23] - **Supply**: The operating rate increased, and some plants restarted. Unexpected maintenance is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues [23] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates remained unchanged [23] - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased in early September [23] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee and the futures processing fee both increased [23] - **Strategy**: Wait and see [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 16 yuan to 4272 yuan, the East China spot price rose 7 yuan to 4385 yuan, the basis was 91 yuan (- 11), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 50 yuan (- 5) [24] - **Supply**: The overall operating rate increased, with the synthetic gas - based operating rate increasing significantly. Some domestic and overseas plants had production changes [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates remained unchanged [24] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, and the import arrival forecast is 94,000 tons [24] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production is - 645 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production is - 792 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production is 812 yuan [24] - **Strategy**: Go short at high prices, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2601 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that policy expectations are fermenting, leading to an oscillatory rebound in steel prices [2]. - The rebar futures price oscillated higher due to the enhanced policy expectations from the downward economic data in August and the strong boost from coking coal and coke. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar remained weak. Although the weekly output decreased, the reduction during the peak season was not strong, and inventory continued to increase, with limited relief of supply pressure. Meanwhile, the demand was poor, with high - frequency indicators running at a low level and no improvement in downstream industries, resulting in insufficient peak - season demand. Currently, steel prices rebounded oscillatory due to policy expectations and strong raw materials, but the fundamentals did not improve in the situation of weak supply and demand, and the sustainability of the upward drive needed to be tracked. In the short - term, steel prices maintained an oscillatory and stable state under the dominance of optimistic sentiment, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the fermentation of policy expectations leading to an oscillatory rebound in steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The economic data in August declined, enhancing policy expectations. Coupled with the strong boost from coking coal and coke, the rebar futures price oscillated higher. The supply - demand pattern of rebar was weak, with limited relief of supply pressure and poor demand, insufficient peak - season demand. Currently, steel prices rebounded oscillatory, but the fundamentals did not improve, and the sustainability of the upward drive needed to be tracked. In the short - term, steel prices were stable and oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the demand [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 9 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局偏弱，钢价震荡寻底 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货价格持稳运行，成交表现一般，而螺纹钢延续供需双弱局面，建筑钢厂生产趋 弱，螺纹周产量环比下降，但旺季减产持续性有待跟踪，且库存持续增加，供应压力并未缓解。与 此同时，螺纹钢需求表现偏弱，高频指标低位回升有限，且下游行业延续低迷，旺季成色不足，继 续承压钢价。目前 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Arbitrage: Suspended [5] 2) Core View The peak - season demand for lead is not obvious, and the supply - demand pattern has been generally weak. This pattern may not change significantly in September. Under the background of the Fed's interest rate cut, lead prices may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. It is recommended to sell high and buy low between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,200 yuan/ton [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On September 10, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$48.13/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price dropped by 75 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. Lead prices in different regions and prices of related products like lead scrap also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Futures**: On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,895 yuan/ton and closed at 16,795 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 45,315 lots, an increase of 14,839 lots. The position was 50,467 lots, an increase of 766 lots. During the night session, it closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close. The lead market had weak supply and demand, with weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm and light trading [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 10, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from last week. As of September 11, the LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, a decrease of 2,325 tons from the previous trading day [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Maintain a neutral view. Due to the unclear peak - season demand and the supply - demand pattern that is difficult to change in September, but with the Fed's interest rate cut, the lead price may be volatile and slightly stronger. It is recommended to trade within the range of 16,300 - 17,200 yuan/ton [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Suspend operations [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report - Report Date: September 10, 2025 - Report Industry: Steel and Iron Ore 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price is weakly oscillating with a daily decline of 0.73%. In the current supply-demand weakness, the fundamentals are weak, and industrial contradictions are accumulating. With the relatively favorable peak-season expectation and rising costs, the steel price is expected to continue the low-level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The main contract price is oscillating with a daily decline of 0.39%. In the current supply-demand weakness, industrial contradictions are accumulating limitedly, and the fundamentals are relatively good. With less delivery pressure, the short-term trend of hot-rolled coil is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the demand change [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price is oscillating at a high level with a daily increase of 0.25%. In the current supply-demand weakness, the fundamentals of iron ore are running smoothly. The holiday restocking expectation and supply disruptions support the ore price to continue the strong trend. However, the relatively negative factor is the high valuation, and the upside space is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **CPI and PPI**: In August 2025, the core CPI continued to rise, and the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed. The CPI was flat month-on-month and decreased by 0.4% year-on-year. The core CPI increased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding for the fourth consecutive month. The PPI was flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month [6]. - **Real Estate Sales**: According to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 16 key real estate enterprises from January to August 2025 were 868.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17%. The sales in August were 106.451 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% and a month-on-month increase of 20.2%. Only China Jinmao had a year-on-year increase in sales from January to August, with a growth rate of 25.7%. Other 15 enterprises had year-on-year decreases, and the largest decline was from Seazen Holdings, with a decrease of 54.1% [7]. - **Project Commencement**: In August 2025, 397 projects started across the country. The top three provinces in terms of commencement investment were Jilin, Guangxi, and Zhejiang, with total investments of 64.73 billion yuan, 30.37 billion yuan, and 27.7 billion yuan respectively [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The national average prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot-rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) were 3,283 yuan and 3,438 yuan respectively, with decreases of 4 yuan and 6 yuan compared with the previous day. The price of Tangshan billet (Q235) was 3,000 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,080 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The coil-rebar price difference was 180 yuan, and the rebar-scrap price difference was 1,120 yuan, with a decrease of 10 yuan [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 798 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan compared with the previous day. The price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 800 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan compared with the previous day. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 10.53 yuan and 23.91 yuan respectively, with increases of 0.44 yuan and 0.16 yuan compared with the previous day. The SGX swap (current month) was 106.75 yuan, an increase of 1.50 yuan compared with the previous day. The Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 107.65 yuan, an increase of 1.95 yuan compared with the previous day [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,109 | -0.73 | 3,126 | 3,092 | 1,264,549 | -64,810 | 1,867,674 | 88,845 | | Hot-rolled Coil | 3,342 | -0.39 | 3,355 | 3,316 | 446,058 | -68,834 | 1,313,659 | 6,895 | | Iron Ore | 805.0 | 0.25 | 809.0 | 796.0 | 334,534 | -159,592 | 544,566 | 3,366 | [11] 3.4 Related Charts The report provides charts on steel inventory (rebar, hot-rolled coil), iron ore inventory (national 45-port, 247 steel mills, domestic mines), and steel mill production (247 sample steel mills' blast furnace开工率 and capacity utilization, 87 independent electric furnace开工率, 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit and loss situation) [13][18][27]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply-demand pattern has little change. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and the weekly output of rebar has decreased by 1.88 tons. The demand is weak, and the peak-season demand is in doubt. The steel price is expected to continue the low-level oscillating trend [34]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand are weakening. The production of steel mills is restricted during the military parade, and the weekly output has decreased by 10.50 tons. The demand is also weakening, and the demand toughness is weakening. The short-term trend is relatively strong [34]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply-demand pattern has changed. The terminal consumption of ore has decreased significantly due to production restrictions. The supply is expected to increase steadily. The ore price is supported by restocking expectations and supply disruptions, but the upside space is cautiously optimistic [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal market showed mixed trends, with improved trading volume and market sentiment. The market presented a situation of weak supply and demand due to environmental policies affecting downstream demand and safety inspections limiting supply. The eighth round of coke price increase was not accepted by downstream steel mills, resulting in a short - term stable market under the game between coke and steel producers [2][5]. - In the short term, the futures market has support as both supply and demand are contracting. Attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mine supply after the parade [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal market had mixed price movements this week, with better trading volume and improved market sentiment. Environmental policies led to production restriction expectations in downstream steel mills and coking plants, affecting coking coal demand. Mine safety inspections and "over - production checks" limited supply, creating a situation of weak supply and demand. The eighth round of coke price increase was rejected by steel mills, and the market remained stable in the short term [2][5]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - quality Urban Development" was released, with measures to support the construction of world - class city clusters and enhance urban development [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports [7]. - From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 3.3159 trillion yuan, including 538.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 2.7776 trillion yuan of special bonds [7]. - From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [7]. - In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.15 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.115 million tons (a 2.0% daily increase). Estimated national daily crude steel output was 2.68 million tons (a 0.1% increase) [8]. - As of the week ending August 27, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.0%, a 1.2% decrease from the previous week [8]. - Recently, many small and medium - sized banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit interest rates by 10 - 20 basis points [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - On the production side, some coal mines had production stoppages or reductions due to internal reasons, while most maintained normal production. The market pricing logic is gradually returning to fundamental factors. Due to weakened downstream demand and slower procurement, the trading activity of coal washing plants and traders has declined [2]. - On the demand side, the seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce due to profit support, showing a structure of "high production, weak inventory reduction, and strong expectations." However, the pressure of steel inventory accumulation and potential production restriction policies will limit the upward space of coke prices [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply: Some coal mines have limited production due to accidents and other factors. With continuous safety inspections before the parade and some spontaneous production stoppages, coal mine production has tightened before the parade [30]. - Demand: Coke production has slightly declined in some areas under production restrictions. Coke enterprises maintain a demand - based procurement strategy, and overall coal mine transactions are average, but most coal mines do not have obvious inventory pressure [30]. - Investment Strategies: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; and for coking profit, also wait and see [2][30].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows a mixed performance, with asphalt futures experiencing a slight increase amid various supply and demand factors affecting the market [1] Supply Side - Hebei Xinhai plans to increase asphalt production by the end of the month, but Zhenhai Refining may temporarily halt asphalt production, and some local refineries in Shandong, such as Shengxing Petrochemical, may switch to producing residual oil, leading to a decrease in asphalt plant operating rates [1] Demand Side - In North China, terminal demand is weak due to rainfall, while demand in East China and southern regions has improved due to road construction by Shandong Expressway, resulting in price declines in North and East China, while South China sees a slight increase [1] Market Outlook - According to Guantong Futures, southern main refineries are operating at low capacity this week, with reduced rainfall in East China but more rainfall in northern regions. Additionally, market caution due to funding constraints is impacting asphalt demand. The recent rise and fall of crude oil prices have weakened cost support for asphalt, leading to a weak supply and demand scenario, resulting in fluctuating asphalt futures [1]