1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash include short - term and long - term expectations for glass, and the limited valuation elasticity of soda ash due to the excess expectation. The high inventory of glass in the middle stream needs to be digested, and the capacity expansion cycle of soda ash has not ended. The cost - raising logic may boost the overall valuation [1][2]. - The trading logic for the near - term is to focus on the changes in cold - repair and ignition expectations for glass and the cost - based price fluctuations for soda ash. For the long - term, attention should be paid to supply expectations, demand verification, and cost factors [3][7]. - The trend of glass and soda ash has a cost - raising expectation in the short - term, but the upside space is limited. The 05 - contract of glass and soda ash is more about expectations before delivery, lacking clear fundamental drivers [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Glass**: In the short - term, there are expectations of seasonal demand return and accelerated cold - repair of supply. In the long - term, it is about macro - policy expectations. The daily melting of float glass has dropped to around 145,000 tons, but supply decline alone cannot drive prices independently. Middle - stream high inventory is a risk, and there are ignition expectations despite accelerated cold - repair [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation elasticity is limited due to the unchanged excess expectation. It can only follow the cost. Price movements depend on upstream inventory changes and supply or cost "stories" [2]. - **Reality**: The high inventory of glass in the middle stream needs to be digested, and the capacity expansion cycle of soda ash has not ended. The cost - raising logic due to overseas geopolitical issues may boost the overall valuation [2]. - **Trading Logic**: For the near - term, focus on cold - repair and ignition expectations for glass and cost - based price fluctuations for soda ash. For the long - term, pay attention to supply expectations, demand verification, and cost factors [3][7]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: There is a short - term cost - raising expectation, but the upside space is limited. Glass has weak demand, cold - repair and ignition expectations, and high middle - stream inventory. Soda ash is suppressed by high production, with limited price elasticity [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The 05 - contract of glass and soda ash is more about expectations before delivery, lacking clear fundamental drivers [10]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass**: The spot prices of various glass products remained unchanged on March 29, 2026. The 05 - contract of glass increased by 0.48% to 1041 yuan/ton on March 27, 2026, while the 09 - contract decreased by 0.42% to 1179 yuan/ton. The daily production and sales in different regions showed fluctuations [13][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly unchanged on March 27, 2026. The 05 - contract of soda ash increased by 0.33% to 1229 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract increased by 0.15% to 1310 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: There is still room for positive feedback in the spot - futures market for both glass and soda ash when the market rises. The overall valuation of glass and soda ash is not high and may be driven by other sectors. There is an expectation of cost increase [16]. - **Negative Information**: No negative information is clearly stated in the report. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. Keep an eye on the cold - repair and ignition expectations of glass production lines, glass production and sales, spot prices, and soda ash spot transactions [18][19][21]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: The expectation of the 05 - contract of glass is unclear, with weak supply and demand. The near - term spot pressure is large, and the middle - stream inventory is high. There may be a cost - raising expectation in the long - term, but the demand is unclear [22]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: For glass, the 5 - 9 spread has narrowed due to accelerated cold - repair, and the 05 - contract is facing delivery pressure. For soda ash, it maintains a C - structure, and the long - term excess pattern remains unchanged [31]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - **Glass**: Natural - gas production lines are in loss, the cost of petroleum - coke has increased significantly, and coal - gas production lines have a small profit [46]. - **Soda Ash**: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1200 - 1220 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process in Central China is around 950 - 1000 yuan/ton [46]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - **Glass**: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 80,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand. Some glass products have good export performance [53]. - **Soda Ash**: The monthly average net export of soda ash remains high, accounting for about 6% of the apparent demand. The cumulative export from January to February 2026 was 401,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 112,800 tons, or 39.03% [53]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Glass**: In March, the cold - repair of float glass accelerated, and the daily melting dropped below 145,000 tons. There are still some cold - repair and ignition production lines to be realized, and the cold - repair rhythm is expected to be faster [57]. - **Soda Ash**: The current daily production of soda ash is at a high level, with a weekly production of over 750,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance and capacity of some soda - ash manufacturers [60]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - **Glass**: The middle - stream inventory of glass remains high, and the spot pressure persists. The downstream raw - sheet inventory has increased, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The demand is weak in reality [64]. - **Soda Ash**: The rigid demand for soda ash is moderately weak, and the middle and lower reaches mainly replenish inventory at low prices [76]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises is 73.622 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 814,000 heavy boxes, or 1.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.86%. The inventory days are 33.6 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from the previous period. The middle - stream inventory remains high [89]. - **Soda Ash**: The total inventory of soda - ash manufacturers is 1.8519 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1900 tons. Among them, the light - soda inventory is 946,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,500 tons, and the heavy - soda inventory is 905,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons [90].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and oscillate and consolidate. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be under pressure at a high level in the short term and adjust under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown arrangements, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to oscillate downward, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to shift downward. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - Overseas electrolytic aluminum production reduction expectations still exist, and the global supply contraction logic remains. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains stable with limited supply increments [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9% last week, showing signs of a peak season, and demand was released. The photovoltaic materials in the profile sector entered the final stage of "rush - export", and new orders in the automotive and power fields increased significantly [3] - After the Spring Festival, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market continued to accumulate inventory. As of March 19, the inventory in the mainstream consumption areas was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from last Thursday. The inventory is still at a high level in the past five years, but the inventory accumulation situation has shown signs of easing [3] - LME inventory depletion supports the bottom of LME aluminum, but the upward momentum is insufficient. Domestic high - inventory and weak reality suppress the upward momentum, and the internal and external driving forces continue to diverge [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, the market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production and demand and rapidly increasing inventory from a low level. Although the sharp rise in crude oil prices has briefly boosted market confidence, the market's demand expectations for this year are relatively weak, and the outlook for the fundamentals is pessimistic. In the short - term, the prices of black - series commodities are expected to be strong, and the futures prices are likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the market is entering the consumption peak season. The steel production is at a low level, and the iron - water production has declined significantly. The supply side has seen an increase in shipments, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The medium - term downward trend of the futures price may end [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Situation**: After the US - Israel attack on Iran, the crude oil price remained strong after a spike and fall, and the prices of black - series commodities were short - term strong. The overall market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production and demand and increasing inventory. The downstream demand is expected to gradually start, but the market's demand expectations for this year are weak [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has broken through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and it is more likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the short term [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the spot prices of rebar decreased slightly while the spot price of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged. The basis and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed different changes [2]. - **Production**: The total output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills remained stable last week. The output of rebar increased by 4.97% to 173.31 million tons, and the output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.75% to 301.11 million tons. The capacity utilization and operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased, and the output of rebar from electric - arc furnace steel mills increased by 44.70% to 68.66 million tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products increased by 8.29% to 1403.13 million tons, the social inventory of rebar increased by 12.33% to 637.75 million tons, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 6.78% to 381.61 million tons. The steel mill inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.27% to 548.87 million tons, the steel mill inventory of rebar increased by 2.19% to 237.93 million tons, and the steel mill inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.96% to 90.08 million tons [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 23.68% to 662.5 million tons, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 95.68% to 80.54 million tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 18.07% to 291.31 million tons [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. The steel production is at a low level, and the iron - water production has declined significantly. The supply side has seen an increase in shipments, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the production costs on both the supply and demand sides [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude, think in terms of volatility, avoid chasing up or selling down. Try to go long with a light position on dips during the futures price correction [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the main DCE iron ore contract increased by 4.72% to 787.5 yuan/ton, and the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract increased by 4.73% to 103.74 US dollars/ton. The prices of various iron ore powders in ports also showed different changes [5]. - **Supply**: The Australian iron ore shipments decreased by 6.91% to 1552.2 million tons, and the Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased by 26.30% to 469.6 million tons. The arrival volume of iron ore in northern six ports increased by 41.80% to 1464.5 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory increased by 0.15% to 17117.86 million tons, the port trade ore inventory increased by 0.59% to 11780.21 million tons, and the sintered powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills decreased by 3.96% to 1314.02 million tons [5]. 3.3. Industry News - From January 20 to 26, 2026, the Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Supervision Administration inspected Huixian Longtian Coal Industry Co., Ltd. and found major accident hazards, and ordered it to suspend production for rectification for 2 days [8]. - Due to the recent situation in the Strait of Hormuz, several iron ore cargo ships originally destined for the Middle East have changed their routes and headed for China, with four ship redirection events reported [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **For the steel sector**: The market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production and demand and a rapid increase in inventory from a low level. Although the impact of the sharp rise in crude oil prices on black commodities is limited, it has a certain boost to the overall market sentiment. The downstream demand is expected to gradually start, but the market's demand expectation for this year is relatively weak, and the expectation for the fundamentals is pessimistic. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, indicating strong support below. Due to the current low valuation, the downside space may be limited [1]. - **For the iron ore sector**: The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. The output of the five major steel products of 247 sample steel mills remains stable, and the daily average hot metal output has rebounded from a low level. The supply side has seen an increase in shipments and a decrease in arrivals, but the port inventory has continued to rise and reached a record high. Technically, the futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Thread and Hot Roll - **Market situation**: After the US - Israel attack on Iran, the sharp rise in crude oil prices has a limited impact on black commodities but boosts the overall market sentiment. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production and demand and increasing inventory [1]. - **Operation suggestions**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [1]. - **Data summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous day and the previous week. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have also decreased [1]. - **Basis and spread**: The basis and spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Production**: The output of rebar and hot - rolled coil has decreased slightly, and the production of electric - arc furnace steel mills has changed, with the output of electric - arc furnace rebar increasing significantly [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties has increased, while the steel mill inventory has decreased slightly. The inventory of billets in the Tangshan area has increased [1]. - **Trading volume and apparent demand**: The trading volume in the spot market has decreased, and the apparent demand has increased [1]. - **Futures warehouse receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts for rebar has decreased, while that for hot - rolled coil has increased [1]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market situation**: The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. The output of the five major steel products remains stable, and the hot metal output has rebounded from a low level. The supply side has seen an increase in shipments and a decrease in arrivals, but the port inventory has continued to rise and reached a record high [3]. - **Operation suggestions**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with an oscillating mindset, avoid chasing up or selling down. When the futures price is oscillating and building a bottom, try to go long at a low position with a light position [3]. - **Data summary**: - **Price**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have increased to varying degrees compared with the previous day and the previous week [4]. - **Basis and spread**: The basis and futures monthly spread of iron ore have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - **Shipment and freight**: The shipment volume from Australia has decreased, while that from Brazil has increased. The freight rates and exchange rates have also changed [4]. - **Arrival and inventory**: The arrival volume of iron ore has increased slightly, the daily average port clearance volume has decreased, and the port inventory has continued to rise [4]. - **Production**: The output of domestic iron ore mines has decreased [4]. - **Futures warehouse receipts**: The number of futures warehouse receipts has decreased [4]. 3.3. Industry News - **Steel production restrictions**: During the important national meetings in 2026, steel enterprises are required to implement phased emission reduction control, with some steel enterprises having new blast furnace overhauls and production reduction plans [6]. - **Coking coal production**: The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased, and the daily output and inventory of raw coal have also increased [6]. - **Real estate policy**: The draft of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to promote the high - quality development of the real estate market and build a new real - estate development model [6]. - **Iron ore procurement**: Chinese state - owned iron ore purchasers have expanded the procurement restrictions on new seaborne iron ore goods from BHP due to a long - term contract dispute [8]. - **Coking plant profitability**: The average profit per ton of coke in 30 independent coking plants across the country is 17 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [8]. - **Glass inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises has continued to increase, approaching a three - year high [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot market has a slow start with price stability, and the profit of steel mills exists, but the actual resumption of production may be slow. It is not recommended to take unilateral or trend opportunities, and a cash-and-carry position can be operated based on the basis [2]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the price rebounds due to supply disturbances and cost increases, but the fundamentals are weak with high inventory and strong resistance to price increases. It is not recommended to chase long positions [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the first round of coke price cuts has begun, and the supply recovers faster than demand. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral positions and establish cash-and-carry positions on the 05 contract [5]. - For iron ore, the impact of the geopolitical conflict is mainly on market sentiment. It is not recommended to short at low prices, and medium - and long - term investors can enter short positions at pressure levels [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On March 4, the closing prices of far - month contracts for RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, JM2609 were 3100.00, 3232.00, 731.50, 1748.00, 1198.50 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 2.00, 0.00, 1.50, 11.00, 0.00 and changes in percentage of - 0.06%, 0.00%, 0.21%, 0.63%, 0.00% [1]. - The closing prices of near - month contracts for RB2605, HC2605, 12605, J2605, JM2605 on March 4 were 3071.00, 3212.00, 752.00, 1672.00, 1097.00 respectively, with corresponding changes of 4.00, 0.00, 3.00, 11.00, - 2.50 and changes in percentage of 0.13%, 0.00%, 0.40%, 0.66%, - 0.23% [1]. - The cross - month spreads on March 4 for RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, 12605 - 2609, J2605 - 2609, JM2605 - 2609 were - 29.00, - 20.00, 20.50, - 76.00, - 101.50 respectively, with corresponding changes of 2.00, - 1.00, 0.00, 0.00, - 6.50 [1]. - The spreads, ratios and profits on March 4 for roll - screw spread, screw - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, screw disk profit, coking disk profit were 141.00, 4.08, 1.52, - 63.55, 212.99 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 4.00, 0.00, 0.02, 10.48, 17.90 [1]. Spot Market - On March 4, the spot prices of Shanghai screw, Tianjin screw, Guangzhou screw, Tangshan billet, and Platts Index were 3170.00, 3110.00, 3390.00, 2910.00, 100.20 respectively, with corresponding changes of 0.00, 0.00, - 10.00, 0.00, - 0.35 [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - material spread, Rizhao Port: PB on March 4 were 3210.00, 3230.00, 3220.00, 260.00, 750.00 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 50.00, - 40.00, 0.00, 0.00, - 3.00 [1]. - The spot prices of Ganqimao coking coal, Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke, and Qingdao Port: PB on March 4 were 640.00, 1480.00, 750.00 respectively, with corresponding changes of 0.00, 0.00, - 5.00 [1]. - The basis on March 4 for HC main contract, RB main contract, main contract, J main contract, JM main contract were - 2.00, 99.00, 33.00, - 45.60, 113.00 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 43.00, 3.00, 0.00, 22.00, 10.00 [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral positions and wait for the basis to fall before establishing cash - and - carry positions [2][7]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, gradually take profits on previous long positions, and industrial customers should hedge at high prices [3][7]. - For coking coal and coke, take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral positions and establish cash - and - carry positions on the 05 contract when the price rebounds [5][7]. - For iron ore, enter short positions at pressure levels [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production, low demand, and rapidly increasing inventory from a low level. The downstream demand is expected to gradually start, but the market's demand expectation for this year is relatively weak. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, indicating strong support below. Due to the current low valuation, the downside space may be limited [2]. - The iron ore market is in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to gradually enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. The steel production is at a low level, and the hot metal production has rebounded from a low level. The supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The futures price has rebounded rapidly, and the medium - term downward trend may end [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased month - on - month, the total inventory continued to rise, the total production of the five major varieties decreased significantly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand was at a low level for the year [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price oscillates at a low level, indicating strong support below [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different degrees of decline [2]. - **Production**: The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the production of electric - arc - furnace steel mills' rebar increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The social and steel - mill inventories of the five major varieties and rebar and hot - rolled coil increased [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties, rebar, and hot - rolled coil increased [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The market is in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. The steel production is at a low level, and the hot metal production has rebounded from a low level. The supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory has reached a record high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with an oscillating mindset, and avoid chasing up or selling down [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore showed different degrees of changes [4]. - **Supply**: The shipping volume of Australian iron ore decreased, while that of Brazilian iron ore increased. The arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal production increased, and the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills decreased [4]. 3.3 Industry Information - The PMI of the steel industry in February 2026 was 46.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points, indicating that the operation of the steel industry slowed down in the short term due to the Spring Festival holiday. The supply and demand at both ends of steel contracted, the finished - product inventory decreased, and the prices of raw materials and steel were weak [7]. - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai regions lowered the prices of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on March 6, 2026 [8]. - As of the week ending March 4, the national building materials production increased, the total inventory increased, the national hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the total inventory increased [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - system commodities are currently in a state of weak supply and demand. The output and demand are at a low level, and the inventory is increasing rapidly from a low level. It is expected that downstream demand will gradually start after the Lantern Festival, and the market's demand expectation for 2026 is relatively weak. For iron ore, the market is in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. The supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory has reached a record high [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Impact**: The attack between the US, Israel and Iran on Saturday led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices on Monday, but it had limited impact on black - system commodities [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of threaded steel from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total output of the five major varieties decreased significantly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand was at the lowest level of the year [2] - **Technical Analysis**: After a sharp rebound, the futures price fell back, indicating that the upper resistance is still large. Due to the current low valuation, the downward space may be limited [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [2] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 3067 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3219 yuan/ton. The spot price of threaded steel (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) is 3190 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) is 3240 yuan/ton [2] - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill's threaded steel output is 165.10 tons, and the hot - rolled coil output is 309.61 tons [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties is 1295.75 tons, the social inventory of threaded steel is 567.76 tons, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coil is 357.37 tons [2] - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties is 662.5 tons, the apparent demand of threaded steel social inventory is 80.54 tons, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil social inventory is 291.31 tons [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is currently in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to gradually enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. Last week, the output of the five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline, and the daily average molten iron output increased by 28,000 tons month - on - month to 2.334 million tons [4] - **Supply**: With the improvement of the weather, the shipment has gradually recovered to a high level. The arrival volume has decreased, but the port inventory has continued to rise and reached a record high [4] - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term rebound, the futures price continued to fall back, and the medium - term downward trend is still continuing [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [4] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 754.5 yuan/dry ton, and the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 99.26 US dollars/dry ton [4] - **Shipment**: The Australian iron ore shipment is 16.674 million tons, and the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 6.372 million tons [4] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory is 170.9196 million tons, and the port trade ore inventory is 117.1165 million tons [4] 3.3 Industry News - On March 2, 2026, at 10:00, Anshan City launched a yellow (Level III) early warning for heavy pollution weather emergency response. Currently, steel enterprises in Anshan are implementing production suspension and restriction measures, and some steel enterprises are implementing a 40% production reduction [6] - From February 23 to March 1, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 22.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 911,000 tons; the total arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports in China was 21.469 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 55,000 tons; the total arrival volume of iron ore at six northern ports was 10.328 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 51,000 tons [6] - From February 23 to March 1, 2026, the total global iron ore shipment was 33.407 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 198,000 tons. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 26.907 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 226,000 tons. The Australian shipment was 19.484 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 623,000 tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 15.711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.38 million tons. The Brazilian shipment was 7.422 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 397,000 tons [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the steel market is in a "supply and demand double weak" pattern with policy expectations providing support, and is expected to fluctuate during the "Two Sessions". After the meetings, attention should be paid to inventory reduction due to actual supply and demand [6]. - In March, the iron ore market has strong supply and weak demand, with high port inventories pressuring the upper limit of the price, but policy sentiment and post - holiday demand recovery expectations support the lower limit, and the price will mainly fluctuate in a range [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市预判 (Outlook) - **Steel Market**: In March, the steel market is in a "supply and demand double weak" situation. Affected by the Spring Festival, EAF capacity utilization dropped significantly, while blast furnace operating rates increased slightly. Steel production decreased in February, and demand dropped during the Spring Festival, leading to inventory accumulation. After the holiday, downstream resumption of work is expected to drive inventory reduction, but the inflection point is postponed [6]. - **Iron Ore Market**: In March, iron ore supply is strong and demand is weak, with high port inventories. The market is affected by the "Two Sessions" and post - holiday demand recovery expectations, and the price will mainly fluctuate. In February, Australian shipments were affected by tropical cyclones and then recovered. Due to the Spring Festival, shipping and port operations were affected, and port inventories remained high. After the holiday, port throughput is expected to return to normal, and port inventories face pressure to reduce [9]. 3.2产业动态 (Industry Dynamics) - Some steel enterprises in North China have received temporary independent emission reduction notices from March 4th to 11th, with a minimum 30% reduction in blast furnace load [11]. - Most steel market merchants resumed work on the eighth day of the first lunar month, and some downstream terminals will resume work around the Lantern Festival [11]. - In February 2026, South Korea's KTC made a final ruling on the anti - dumping case of hot - rolled coils from China and Japan. China and South Korea reached a consensus through price commitments, and South Korea will implement quota management on Chinese hot - rolled coils without additional anti - dumping duties [11]. - From February 16th to 22nd, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil reached 14.176 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.287 million tons, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year [11]. - Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven" real - estate policy, adjusting the purchase restriction policy, reducing the social security requirement for non - Shanghai residents to buy housing inside the outer ring from 3 years to 1 year, and increasing the maximum provident fund loan amount for families to 3.24 million yuan. Shanghai - registered families buying their only new housing can be temporarily exempt from property tax [11]. - As of the end of January, the national passenger vehicle industry inventory was 3.57 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 80,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 580,000 units, showing a high - level inventory operation [11]. - The US has started to levy a 10% global tariff and is preparing to raise it to 15%. The US government is considering imposing new tariffs on about six industries on the grounds of "national security" [11]. 3.3数据分析 (Data Analysis) - **Steel Production**: Since February, rebar production has declined slightly, while hot - rolled coil production has increased steadily. As of February 27th, the weekly actual production of rebar was 1.651 million tons, a decrease of 414,000 tons compared to the same period last year, and the weekly actual production of hot - rolled coils was 3.0961 million tons, a decrease of 135,200 tons compared to the same period last year. The EAF capacity utilization decreased significantly, while the blast furnace operating rate increased slightly [13]. - **Steel Inventory**: As of the week of February 27th, the in - plant inventory of rebar was 232,840 tons, a decrease of 1,430 tons compared to the same period last year, and the social inventory in 35 cities was 567,760 tons, a decrease of 614,100 tons compared to the same period last year. The in - plant inventory of hot - rolled coils was 94,780 tons, an increase of 33,400 tons compared to the same period last year, and the social inventory in 33 cities was 357,370 tons, an increase of 134,100 tons compared to the same period last year. After the Spring Festival, downstream resumption of work is expected to drive inventory reduction, but the inflection point is postponed [14]. - **Steel Demand**: As of February 25th, the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide was 8.9%, a lunar - year - on - lunar - year increase of 1.5%; the labor attendance rate was 15.5%, a lunar - year - on - lunar - year increase of 3.7%; the fund availability rate was 29%, a lunar - year - on - lunar - year increase of 9.4%. As of the week of February 27th, the weekly consumption of rebar was 33,550 tons, a decrease of 157,160 tons compared to the same period last year, and the cement delivery volume was 22,100 tons, a decrease of 134,500 tons compared to the same period last year. The demand inflection point of building materials is postponed due to the late resumption of work [16]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Consumption**: As of February 27th, the weekly consumption of hot - rolled coils was 268,370 tons, a decrease of 53,960 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the eighth day of the first lunar month, 85% of traders had resumed work, and by the tenth day, most traders were expected to resume work. Terminal industries such as steel structures and machinery had a resumption level of 80% as of the eighth day, and are expected to reach 90% by the tenth day, with full resumption after the Lantern Festival [18]. - **Iron Ore Supply**: As of the week of February 20th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.209 million tons, an increase of 2.54 million tons compared to the same period last year; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 21.524 million tons, an increase of 497,000 tons compared to the same period last year. In early February, Australian shipments were affected by tropical cyclones and then recovered. Due to the Spring Festival, the arrival volume decreased [22]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: As of the week of February 27th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 170.9196 million tons, an increase of 18.7056 million tons compared to the same period last year; the daily average throughput was 298,480 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 90.851 million tons, a decrease of 820,900 tons compared to the same period last year. After the holiday, port throughput is expected to return to normal, and port inventories face pressure to reduce [27]. - **Iron Ore Trading**: As of the week of February 13th, the daily average spot trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports by traders was 34,800 tons. The daily average trading volume of forward iron ore spot decreased significantly. After the Spring Festival, market trading activity is expected to gradually recover [28]. - **Iron Ore Consumption**: As of February 27th, the daily average molten iron output of 247 sample steel enterprises was 233,280 tons, an increase of 53,400 tons compared to the same period last year; the daily average consumption of imported iron ore was 288,710 tons, an increase of 45,400 tons compared to the same period last year. Since February, the daily average molten iron output has been increasing, and the daily average consumption of imported iron ore has increased synchronously [30]. - **Price Difference between Hot - Rolled Coils and Rebar**: As of February 26th, the price difference between the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils was 155 yuan/ton, and the price difference has fluctuated within a range since February [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - Short - term asphalt futures prices may maintain range - bound oscillations. Upward drivers come from crude oil price fluctuations and recurring geopolitical risks, while downward pressure stems from continuous inventory accumulation and weak demand. The market is currently in a stage of weak supply and demand, and price fluctuations are greatly affected by sentiment [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - During the week, asphalt futures prices showed a "stable - then - falling" trend. They oscillated in the range of 3330 - 3370 yuan/ton in the first three trading days. On Friday, affected by market sentiment and crude oil price fluctuations, the price dropped significantly to a low of 3251 yuan/ton and finally closed at 3280 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The weekly basis (spot price - futures price) showed a convergent trend, narrowing from - 124 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to - 70 yuan/ton at the end of the week [3] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Demand side**: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream construction has basically stagnated, terminal purchasing willingness is low, spot market transactions are light, and only a small amount of rigid demand exists in some southern regions [4] - **Supply side**: The operating rate of domestic refineries remains low. Some refineries in Shandong plan to resume production during the Spring Festival but have not implemented it yet, and the overall supply has not changed much [4] 3.4 Market Outlook - Short - term asphalt futures prices may maintain range - bound oscillations. Key factors to focus on are crude oil price trends, post - festival demand recovery progress, and inventory depletion. The current market is in a stage of weak supply and demand, and price fluctuations are greatly affected by sentiment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a narrow fluctuation with slight price increases, influenced by macroeconomic factors and a balanced supply-demand situation [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai lead futures saw a slight increase, with the main contract opening at 16,715 CNY, reaching a high of 16,805 CNY and closing at 16,795 CNY, up by 50 CNY or 0.3% [1]. - The latest price for London lead is reported at 1,989 USD, down by 6.5 USD [1]. - The average price for domestic 1 lead in the Changjiang market is 16,680 CNY, up by 20 CNY from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The current market is characterized by a "dual weakness" in supply and demand, with supply gradually increasing due to improved raw material arrivals and stable smelter operations [3]. - Demand remains weak, particularly from battery manufacturers, who are operating at low rates and maintaining high finished product inventories, leading to minimal procurement of raw materials [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - The current trading environment is cautious, with limited actual transactions and a focus on upcoming economic data, including U.S. unemployment claims and domestic downstream recovery progress [4]. - The market is observing a weak structure in spot lead prices, with traders actively selling but downstream purchasing interest remaining low [4]. Group 4: Key Variables Influencing the Market - Short-term price movements will depend on three main variables: the Federal Reserve's policy signals and the strength of the USD, the accumulation of social lead ingot inventories, and the operational rates of downstream battery enterprises [5]. - The forecast indicates that lead prices will likely continue to experience high-level narrow fluctuations, with the main contract expected to trade between 16,650 and 16,900 CNY per ton [6].