市场情绪扰动，盘面波动加剧 工业硅/多晶硅 20251124 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 工业硅 价格：现货方面，本周工业硅现货价格波动幅度加大。截至2025年11月21日，新疆工业硅553#通氧价格为8900元/吨， 环比上周持平。期货方面，本周主力合约偏弱震荡后大幅冲高回落，截至11月21日主力合约收8960元/吨。 供应：新疆地区开工率保持稳定，供应以稳为主；西北青海、宁夏、甘肃地区开工变化不大；云南地区个别硅企有减 停，产量小幅回落；四川地区平水期，月底将进入枯水期，开工率将进一步下调。整体而言，工业硅产量环比下降。 需求：多晶硅企业周度开工环比持稳，对工业硅需求较为稳定；有机硅开工环比基本稳定，近期有少量单体产能增开， 有机硅反内卷会议后价格出现调涨，引发硅能源大幅反弹，但随后市场逐步消化情绪，价格也有所回落；铝合金企业 开工率小幅增加，下游订单需求尚可。出口方面，10月工业硅出口4.51万吨，环比减少36%，同比减少31%。 成本：本周工业硅成本暂稳。 库存：SMM统计11月20日工业硅全国社会库存共计54.8万吨， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 沥青 偏弱运行 宝城期货 陈栋 近期，沥青期货 2601 合约下探至 3000 元/吨整数关口附近。当前，基本面延续供需双弱态势，现货市 场交投清淡，期现基差持续走弱，旺季不旺格局凸显。 利润影响供给 四季度以来，受国际原油价格波动影响，沥青加工利润处于亏损状态。以山东地炼为例，沥青加工一 度亏损超过 600 元/吨。虽然近期沥青加工利润有所修复，但仍远低于正常水平。在低利润甚至亏损的背景 下，炼厂生产积极性受挫，主动通过检修或转产等方式降低沥青产出。据隆众资讯发布的数据，11 月 12 日当周，国内沥青加工理论利润均值为-593.2 元/吨，周度小幅减少 58.8 元/吨；中国 92 家沥青炼厂产能利 用率为 30.8%，周度下降 1.1 个百分点；沥青周产量为 51.4 万吨，环比下降 3.4%。 当前，国内沥青炼厂产能利用率处于近 5 年高位，沥青产量处于近 5 年中高位。在供应压力依然偏大 的背景下，进入 11 月，沥青现货价格延续跌势。截至 11 月 12 日，沥青现货均价为 3211 元/吨，环比下跌 120 元/吨，降幅为 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - Recently, the spot price of logs has been weak and has been adjusted downwards. The supply side has seen a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the obvious inversion between domestic and foreign prices provides certain support from import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures price. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 decreased on November 20 compared to November 19, with decreases of - 0.45%, - 0.51%, and - 0.44% respectively. Some basis and spreads showed small changes. Most spot prices remained stable, except for the 4A medium - sized radiata pine in Taicang Port, which decreased by 10 yuan, a - 1.32% decline. The import cost increased slightly by 0.78 yuan, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate also increased slightly [2]. Supply - Monthly port arrivals in October increased by 24.7 million cubic meters compared to September, a 13.99% increase. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8, a 17.39% increase. Weekly major port inventories in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions increased, with increases of 0.68%, 2.04%, and 1.46% respectively [2][3]. Demand - The average daily outbound volume in China decreased by 0.07 million cubic meters, a - 1% decline. In Shandong, it decreased by 3%, while in Jiangsu, it increased by 7% [3]. Forecast of Arrivals - From November 17 - 23, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 3 to 13, a 30% week - on - week increase. The total arrival volume increased by 150,000 cubic meters to about 465,000 cubic meters, a 48% week - on - week increase [3].

行情走势 01 11月19日（周三），工业硅主力合约盘中一度涨超6.%，价格最高上涨至9545元/吨，创下近期新高。截止下午收盘，工业硅主力合约收涨 4.68%，报9390元/吨。 工业硅今日为何大涨？ 据市场消息，有机硅单体厂实控人会议昨日在上海如期召开，此次会议由行业权威机构中国氟硅有机材料工业协会主办，国内有机硅龙头企业 系数参加。据市场信息，参会企业总产能占全行业产能的80%以上，会议核心议题聚焦于联合减排与行业挺价事宜，标志着有机硅行业在应 对市场困境方面迈出关键一步。 会议确定的减排方案计划自12月1日起正式执行，具体执行期限目前尚未明确。根据第三方测算，若12月份满月执行该减产计划，预计当月 DMC（二甲基环硅氧烷）产量约为21.04万吨，较减产前减少约0.8万吨。这一减产幅度对上游工业硅的消费量影响约在0.44万吨，将在一 定程度上缓解上游原材料的供应压力。 价格方面，会议明确有机硅DMC指导价格为13000-13200元/吨，较联合挺价前（即11月12日）累计上涨约1700-2000元/吨。其他下游 产 品 价 格 同 步 跟 涨 ， 其 中 107 胶 价 格 在 13700-14000 ...

| 匹行。 | | --- | | 数据来源:海关总署、木联数据、Wind、厂发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 | | 免责声明 | | 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可缔的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 | | 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表厂发期货或其时属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内商仅供参考，报告中部信息或所表 | | 达贴意见并不构成所述品种买卖部出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货持定客户及其他专业人士，版权归 | | 广发期货所有，来经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为"广发期货"。 | | 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | | 关注微信公众号 | 曹剑兰 原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月19日 期货和现货价格 | NATHANA ITE | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 11月18日 | 11月17日 | 涨跌 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the spot price of logs has been weakening and has been adjusted downwards. The supply side has seen a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices forms a certain support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures price. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On November 17th, compared with November 14th, the price of log 2601 increased by 0.5 yuan to 789 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.06%; the price of log 2603 increased by 3.5 yuan to 799 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.44%; the price of log 2605 decreased by 0.5 yuan to 809.5 yuan, with a decline rate of -0.06%. The price of log 2511 remained unchanged at 740 yuan [1] - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 17th compared with November 14th. For example, the price of 3.9A small radiata pine in Rizhao Port was 700 yuan, and the price of 4A small radiata pine in Taicang Port was 710 yuan [1] - External quotes: The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged on November 21st compared with November 14th, at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter and 126 euros/JAS cubic meter respectively [1] Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 17th was 7.105 yuan, an increase of 0.01 yuan compared with November 16th. The import theoretical cost was 810.08 yuan, an increase of 1.22 yuan compared with November 16th [1] Supply - Monthly supply: In October, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters compared with September, with a growth rate of 13.99%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased from 46 to 54, with a growth rate of 17.39% [1] - In the week of November 17th - 23rd, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 compared with the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 30%; the total arrival volume was about 46.5 million cubic meters, an increase of 15 million cubic meters compared with the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 48% [2] Inventory - As of November 14th, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 295 million cubic meters, an increase of 2 million cubic meters compared with November 7th. Among them, the inventory in Shandong was 82.45 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 2.04%, and the inventory in Jiangsu was 83.66 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 1.46% [1][2] Demand - Weekly demand: The average daily outbound volume in China decreased from 6.63 million cubic meters on November 7th to 6.56 million cubic meters on November 14th, with a decline rate of - 1%. In Shandong, it decreased from 3.79 million cubic meters to 3.67 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of - 3%. In Jiangsu, it increased from 2.28 million cubic meters to 2.44 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 7% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a range - bound consolidation, with the price center of gravity moving down and weak operation, and the market is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish [1][3] - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, with the downstream being differentiated in the off - season and the price under pressure for adjustment. The market presents a structurally differentiated trend [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center of gravity moves down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [3] Aluminum Alumina - The alumina market has a continuous supply - surplus pattern, the decline of spot prices has slowed but not stopped, and the industry profit is shrinking. Some high - cost enterprises in the Jin and Yu regions are facing losses, resulting in a 17,000 - ton week - on - week decrease in production. The total inventory has reached 4.793 million tons, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction [3] Aluminum Water and Downstream - The SMM weekly aluminum water ratio last week was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Some sectors are in the transition from peak to off - season, and the aluminum price increase has put pressure on downstream processing fees, leading to production cuts in some processing enterprises [3] - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% last week. The SMM expects the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry to show a differentiated trend in the short term, with grid orders supporting the slight recovery of aluminum cables, while aluminum sheets, strips, and foils are likely to decline due to environmental protection and the off - season [3] - On November 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 646,000 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday [3] Price Outlook - Macro factors have a mixed impact, and the market still expects a tightening of overseas supply. However, with the arrival of the off - season in China, the downstream is weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing. The price is expected to have a short - term correction space [4]

供需双弱 成本支撑区间震荡 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面，供应端样本企业开工率与产量双双下降，关注价格来到低位后是否形成减产趋势。需求方面，本周钢联样本钢材表需与 产量继续双双下降，唐山阶段性限产结束后，本周铁水产量出现反弹，但目前钢材利润仍然不佳，原料需求端始终存在下行预期。 成本端方面，枯水期叠加煤炭现货价格强势，各产区铁合金电价总体稳中偏强。总体来看，基本面供需双弱，成本端有所抬升，预 计延续底部震荡走势。 锰硅方面，供应端同样出现小幅下滑，关注后续是否形成减产趋势。需求方面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile operation. Although the spot price is weak and the supply is expected to increase, the current low futures price and the price inversion between the domestic and foreign markets provide some support for the futures price, limiting its downward space [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On November 13, the price of log2511 remained unchanged at 740.0; log2601 rose to 783.5, up 5.0 (0.64%); log2603 rose to 793.5, up 1.0 (0.13%); log2605 fell to 810.0, down 2.0 (-0.25%) [2] - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 13 compared to November 12 [2] - Spread and basis: The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 5.0 to -43.5; the 11 - 03 spread decreased by 1.0 to -53.5; the 11 - contract basis remained unchanged at 10.0; the 01 - contract basis decreased by 5.0 to -33.5 [2] - Foreign quotes: On November 14, the CFR prices of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine and 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged compared to November 7 [2] - Import cost: The RMB/USD exchange rate decreased to 7.102 on November 13, and the import theoretical cost decreased to 809.77 yuan [2] 3.2 Supply - Monthly supply: In October, the port shipping volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, up 13.99% from September; the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0 (17.39%) [2] - Expected supply (November 10 - 16, 2025): The number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 12, a week - on - week decrease of 25%; the total arrival volume was about 39.5 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 26% [3] 3.3 Inventory - Weekly inventory of major ports: As of November 7, the total inventory in Chinese ports increased by 5.0 (1.74%) to 288.0 million cubic meters; in Shandong, it increased by 3.2 (1.70%) to 191.5 million cubic meters; in Jiangsu, it increased by 0.2 (0.24%) to 82.45 million cubic meters [2][3] 3.4 Demand - Weekly demand: As of November 7, the daily average outbound volume in China increased by 0.35 (6%) to 6.63 million cubic meters; in Shandong, it increased by 0.60 (19%) to 3.79 million cubic meters; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.15 (-6%) to 2.28 million cubic meters [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, with limited improvement in demand. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may put pressure on the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [1] - The downstream replenishment willingness of polysilicon is limited, and there is significant pressure for further price increases in the spot market, which restricts the upward space of the market. Investors with existing long positions should protect their profits. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.54% to 9,145 yuan/ton. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In October, the southwest production area entered the high-cost dry season, and some silicon enterprises shut down their furnaces. In November, the industrial silicon production is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. Downstream demand is weak, with polysilicon enterprises reducing production, organic silicon enterprises operating at reduced capacity or under maintenance, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchasing on demand. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt an interval trading strategy. Pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton and monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics. [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The prices of N-type dense material, N-type re-feeding material, N-type mixed material, and N-type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 1.37% to 54,195 yuan/ton. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Silicon material enterprises are reducing production, but some new production capacities may be put into operation. In November, production is expected to decline. The polysilicon market has light trading, and downstream resistance to high-priced resources is strong. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply-side reform policies, investors can try to go long on dips with a light position. Monitor the launch of the polysilicon platform and macro sentiment changes. [1] Other Information - **Silicon Coal Price**: In Gansu, the silicon coal price increased slightly by 30 yuan/ton, with the average price of silicon mixed coal reaching 930 yuan/ton and the average price of granular coal reaching 1,050 yuan/ton. [1] - **Italian Agricultural Photovoltaic Project**: Italy's first-round agricultural photovoltaic plan has selected 747 projects, with a total installed capacity of 2 GW, supported by 1.7 billion euros (1.9 billion US dollars) from the European Recovery Fund. [1]