Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to show an overall trend of oscillating upward, supported by factors such as the de - stocking of cotton and the high risk of heat damage in some Xinjiang regions. However, the consumption off - season in the downstream textile industry will slow down the price increase. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,180 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 16,786 lots, down 2,027 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are 137 lots, up 28 lots. - Cotton main contract open interest is 568,367 lots, up 21,679 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 20,395 lots, down 773 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 9,643 sheets, down 73 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 98 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,272 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,651 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,384 yuan/ton. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) arrival price is 22,122 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32s) arrival price is 23,916 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,248 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. - The national industrial inventory of cotton is 850 thousand tons, up 24 thousand tons; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3,458.7 thousand tons, down 693.9 thousand tons. - Cotton import volume is 40 thousand tons, down 20 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume is 100 thousand tons, down 20 thousand tons. - Imported cotton profit is 918 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; grey fabric inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. - Monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, down 36 thousand tons. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value is 1,357,773.7 thousand US dollars, up 197,117.9 thousand US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value is 1,263,177.3 thousand US dollars, up 5,210.9 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 17.39%, up 1.43%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility is 17.39%, up 1.37%. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 5.09%, up 0.09%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility is 8.31%, down 0.04% [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' July 2025 China agricultural product supply - demand analysis shows that the forecast of China's cotton supply - demand situation remains the same as last month. As of the end of June, most cotton - growing areas in the country are in the budding to flowering stage, 4 - 7 days earlier than normal. - The China Meteorological Administration predicts that Xinjiang will have continuously high temperatures in July, with more high - temperature days than normal, and cotton is at high risk of heat damage. - According to the USDA weekly crop growth report, as of the week of July 13, 2025, the boll - setting rate of US cotton is 23%, up from 14% last week, compared with 26% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 22%. The budding rate is 61%, up from 48% last week, compared with 62% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 62%. The good - to - excellent rate is 54%, up from 52% last week, compared with 45% in the same period last year [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Although the US cotton rating has been revised upward, the forecast of dry weather in future production areas has boosted the US cotton futures price. The US imposes tariffs on imported products from countries such as Japan and South Korea, and there are threats of new tariffs on BRICS countries, so be vigilant about macro - factor risks. - In China, the textile industry is in the consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials due to rising raw material prices. As of July 10, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises is 70.40%, down 0.84% month - on - month [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, the textile industry is in the off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. Cotton is in the de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some Xinjiang areas increases the risk of heat damage to cotton, supporting a slightly stronger price trend, but the slow de - stocking process drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger with oscillations. One should also be vigilant about macro - factor risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for red dates is 10,425 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10; the main contract's position volume is 136,908 lots, an increase of 1,239; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,018 lots, a decrease of 239; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,893 lots, an increase of 209; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,745 lots, a decrease of 209 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 6 yuan/jin, in Henan is 4.3 yuan/jin; the wholesale price of special - grade red dates in Henan is 9.8 yuan/kg, in Hebei is 9.73 yuan/kg (a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg), in Guangdong is 11 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg); the first - grade red dates price in Guangdong is 9.6 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg). The unified prices of red dates in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar are 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and the price of Aksu is unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 318.7 million tons, and the planting area is 199.3 million hectares, a decrease of 4.1 million hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 10,520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons; the monthly export volume of red dates is 2,229,227 kg, a decrease of 132,571 kg; the cumulative export volume is 15,350,567 kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 1.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan/kg; the cumulative sales volume of red dates of好想你is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year production of red dates of好想youis - 34.59% [2] 3.6 Industry News - On July 9th, in the Aksu area, it rained with a temperature between 18 - 28°C, which is suitable for fruit setting. Jujube farmers are actively managing their orchards, and the jujube trees are gradually entering the physiological fruit - dropping stage. One should pay attention to the fruit - setting situation and weather changes. Internationally, as of the week ending July 6, 2025, the boll - setting rate of US cotton is 14% (up from 9% last week, compared to 18% last year and a five - year average of 15%), the budding rate is 48% (up from 40% last week, compared to 51% last year and a five - year average of 49%), and the good - to - excellent rate is 52% (up from 51% last week, compared to 45% last year). Recent weather is conducive to crop growth, and combined with a stronger US dollar and a weaker grain market, it has pushed down the price of US cotton. The US is imposing tariffs on imported products from countries such as Japan and South Korea, and Trump has threatened to impose a new 10% tariff on BRICS countries [2]