Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Egg [1] - **Bearish**: Live Pig [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean [1] Core Views - Multiple factors are influencing the agricultural product market, including policy, international trade, and macro - economic factors. Different agricultural products show various trends, with most being in a state of oscillation in the short - term [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - CBOT soybeans are strong due to improved export expectations. China's central policy promotes soybean yield and protects planting profits. Policy - led soybean auctions increase market supply, with a high - price transaction average of 4298 yuan/ton and a premium of 210 - 310 yuan/ton. Geopolitical and macro risks need attention [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Reuters predicts that Brazilian and Argentine soybean yields will increase in the 2025/26 season compared to January data, while US soybean ending stocks will decrease. After Sino - US leaders' communication, the expected purchase volume of US soybeans by China has increased. The 2 - month USDA supply - demand report will be released on February 11, 2026, and the short - term Dalian soybean meal may continue to oscillate at the bottom [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Gold and silver volatility increases, domestic soybean oil reduces positions and prices oscillate downward. Although CBOT soybeans are strong, Brazilian soybean premiums fall, and soybean meal rebounds, so domestic soybean oil is weaker than the US market. US soybean oil is strong due to favorable biomass diesel policies. The 26/27 US soybean supply - demand balance pressure may decrease year - on - year, and there is a high probability of inventory reduction, so caution is needed for the upward oscillation of US soybean oil and soybeans [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market oscillates. Oilseed import expectations improve, and Sino - US, Sino - Canadian, and US - Canadian economic and trade relations are important for rapeseed trade. The US biofuel policy ensures the stability of Canadian rapeseed oil exports. A 0.7 - million - ton rapeseed oil trading event is fully transacted. Coastal mills start to crush Australian seeds, and the incremental supply eases market concerns. The short - term rapeseed trend is oscillatory [6] Corn - Northeast and North Port corn spot prices are firm, with a 5 - yuan/ton increase in Jinzhou Port's closing price. Some Shandong deep - processing enterprises reduce purchase prices. After the Spring Festival, ground - stored corn may be concentrated on the market, and the short - term Dalian corn futures will oscillate [7] Live Pig - The live pig near - month 03 contract hits a new low, other contracts decline slightly, and funds reduce positions. Spot prices stabilize slightly, and slaughter volume increases near the Spring Festival. The current industry's slaughter weight is high, and the second - fattening pen utilization rate may continue to decline. In the long - term, due to the increasing supply of sows and piglets, pig prices are expected to hit a low in the first half of next year [8] Egg - Egg futures' decline slows, funds reduce positions and shift from near - term to far - term contracts. Spot prices are stable in some provinces and decline in others. January's chick - replenishment volume shows a significant month - on - month improvement but a slight year - on - year decline. Egg prices in the first half of 2026 have upward - repair momentum. After the Spring Festival spot low, a long - position strategy for egg futures contracts in the first half of 2026 can be considered [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a downward trend in agricultural commodity prices, with corn, wheat, and soybean futures all experiencing declines on December 16 [1][2] - The March 2026 corn contract closed at $4.37 per bushel, down 3.25 cents or 0.74% from the previous trading day [1] - The March 2026 wheat contract closed at $5.10 per bushel, down 11.25 cents or 2.16% from the previous trading day [1] - The January 2026 soybean contract closed at $10.63 per bushel, down 9 cents or 0.84% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Macroeconomic weakness is impacting the agricultural market, with the U.S. non-farm payrolls recording an increase of 64,000 jobs and the unemployment rate reaching a four-year high, putting pressure on stock and energy markets [1] - WTI crude oil prices hit a seven-month low at $55.45 per barrel, reflecting the overall negative market sentiment [1] - The agricultural market is expected to experience increased volatility for the remainder of December, with long-term risks remaining bearish unless consistent drought and high temperatures occur in Argentina and southern Brazil in January [2] - The March soybean futures are anticipated to test the range of $10.30 to $10.40 per ounce, while corn futures may test $4.25 to $4.30 per ounce [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Apple investment strategy: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red date investment strategy: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The late Fuji apple's on - the - ground and warehousing transactions are winding down, with stable in - warehouse trading. The on - the - ground supply in Shandong is decreasing and the quality is declining. The high - quality apples in western regions are mainly for outbound sales, and their prices are stable. Affected by competing fruits like citrus, the market sales are average. In the short term, the market is expected to remain stable supported by foreign trade channels, and future focus should be on inventory digestion [2][3]. - Red dates: The red date futures price fluctuated and closed higher. The acquisition in Aksu and Alar is progressing rapidly, the price in Kashgar has dropped slightly with few transactions, and the acquisition in Ruoqiang and other areas is basically completed. In the sales areas, new products are gradually on the market, with uneven quality and large price differences. The inventory pressure is high, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The market's future expectations are pessimistic. The quality of red dates is better than last year. The actual consumption at the consumer end will be a key focus [7]. Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9,496 yuan/ton, an increase of 121 yuan/ton or 1.29% from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over - 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 9,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous day [5]. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.80 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day [5]. Group 4: Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price rose. The on - the - ground and warehousing transactions of late Fuji are coming to an end, with stable in - warehouse trading. The on - the - ground supply in Shandong is decreasing and the quality is declining. High - quality apples in the west are mainly for outbound sales, and their prices are stable. The market is affected by competing fruits, with average sales. In the short term, the market is supported by foreign trade channels and is expected to remain stable. Last week, the warehousing of new - season late Fuji in production areas was mostly completed, with the remaining mainly in western townships of Shandong Qixia and the paper - wrapped film production area of Shanxi Yuncheng. The warehousing volume was lower than last year, with a higher proportion of farmers' warehousing and a lower proportion of high - quality products. The outbound sales have begun, mainly for foreign - trade goods and some merchants' supplementary supplies. The sales area is in the off - season, and the sales of apples are squeezed by citrus [3]. Red dates - The red date futures price fluctuated and closed higher. The acquisition in Aksu and Alar is progressing rapidly, the price in Kashgar has dropped slightly with few transactions, and the acquisition in Ruoqiang and other areas is basically completed. The acquisition is priced according to quality, and enterprises' enthusiasm is average. In the sales areas, new products are gradually on the market, with uneven quality and large price differences. Merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing is average, and they buy according to demand. Last week, the enthusiasm for acquisition in the spot market of the sales area decreased after continuous price drops. The inventory of 36 sample points increased slightly. It is expected that new products will be listed in large quantities soon, and the inventory pressure is high. The new - season jujube trees have over - exhausted problems, and a production reduction is expected. The quality of jujubes is better than last year. The actual consumption at the consumer end will be a key focus [7].

Group 1: Apple Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Apple futures prices fluctuated and closed lower yesterday. The ground and warehousing transactions of late Fuji apples are gradually winding up, and the in - warehouse transactions are stable. The price of high - quality goods is firm, but the market sales are average due to the impact of citrus competitors. The short - term market is expected to be stable with support, and future attention should be paid to inventory digestion [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9375 yuan/ton, a change of - 58 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.61%. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 1875, a change of + 58 from the previous day. The price of semi - commercial late Fuji above 70 in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 1075, a change of + 58 from the previous day [1]. Recent Market Information - The ground and warehousing transactions of late Fuji are gradually winding up, and the in - warehouse transactions are stable. The western outbound is still concentrated in Gansu and Shaanxi Xunyi. The market supply in Shandong is decreasing, and the quality of ground goods is declining. The price of high - quality goods is stable, and the short - term market is expected to be stable. Currently, affected by citrus and other competing fruits, the market sales are average, and future attention should be paid to the market's digestion ability of inventory goods [2]. Market Analysis - Apple futures prices fluctuated and closed lower yesterday. The warehousing volume is lower than the same period last year, and the proportion of high - quality goods in the warehousing structure has decreased. The outbound work has started, but the goods flowing to the market are limited. The sales area is in the off - season, and the sales space of apples is squeezed by citrus. The price is generally stable, and this week, attention should be paid to the completion of warehousing in Shandong and Shanxi and the outbound speed in the west [3]. Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The supply of late Fuji has increased, but the commodity rate this year is low. Merchants are cautious about ordering general goods. The warehousing work is gradually entering the later stage, and the warehousing volume is lower than the same period last year [4]. Group 2: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [8] Core Viewpoints - Red date futures prices showed a downward trend yesterday. The purchase price of red dates in some areas has been slightly reduced, and the purchase progress is fast. The new goods in the sales areas have limited arrivals, and the quality is uneven, resulting in a wide price difference. The short - term spot price is expected to be weakly stable. The new goods are expected to be concentrated on the market soon, and the inventory pressure is high. The market's future expectations are pessimistic [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 9290 yuan/ton, a change of - 35 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.38%. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 was - 390, a change of + 35 from the previous day [5]. Recent Market Information - The purchase price of red dates in Aksu and Alar areas has been slightly reduced, and the purchase progress is fast. Other production areas are mostly near the end of the purchase, adhering to the principle of high - quality and high - price. The enthusiasm of enterprises for purchase is average. The new goods in the sales areas of Hebei and Guangdong have limited arrivals, and the quality is uneven, resulting in a wide price difference. The enthusiasm of merchants for purchasing is average. The new goods in the Hebei sales area are on the market in small quantities, and downstream merchants purchase on demand. The short - term spot price is expected to be weakly stable [6]. Market Analysis - Red date futures prices showed a downward trend yesterday. The purchase price of red dates in some areas has been slightly reduced, and the purchase progress is fast. The new goods in the sales areas have limited arrivals, and the quality is uneven, resulting in a wide price difference. The short - term spot price is expected to be weakly stable. The purchase enthusiasm in the sales area has decreased, and the new goods are not well - received. The inventory of 36 sample points has increased slightly. The new season's jujube trees have over - exhausted problems, and the production reduction is an expected situation. The quality of jujube fruits is better than that of the same period last year. The actual consumption at the consumer end will be another focus of the market [7]. Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Recently, red date futures have fallen significantly for four consecutive weeks, and the market game has increased. The market expectations are relatively pessimistic. According to the modification of the red date delivery rules by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2025, old - season red dates can still participate in delivery and the cost is lower than that of new - season red dates, so the near - month contracts may still have a certain downward space [8].

Report Overview - Date: October 29, 2025 - Report Name: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Slow destocking in producing areas, focus on downside support [2] - Soybean oil: Rebound in US soybeans, decline in the oil - meal ratio [2] - Soybean meal: Strong US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal rebounds and fluctuates [2] - Soybean: Strong and fluctuating [2] - Corn: Fluctuating weakly [2] - Sugar: Weak overseas, strong domestic [2] - Cotton: Higher cost of new cotton supports cotton futures prices [2] - Eggs: Maintaining adjustment [2] - Live pigs: Spot sentiment declines, waiting for confirmation [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil futures prices (day session: 8,958 yuan/ton, -1.56%; night session: 8,824 yuan/ton, -1.50%); soybean oil futures prices (day session: 8,182 yuan/ton, -0.63%; night session: 8,080 yuan/ton, -1.25%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads of related products are also provided [5]. - **News**: Indonesia's 2025 palm oil production is expected to increase by 10% to about 5,600 million tons, and exports are expected to be 3,000 - 3,100 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to increase by another 5%. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons [6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both -1 [10]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean 2601 futures price (day session: 4,115 yuan/ton, +0.66%; night session: 4,129 yuan/ton, +0.90%); DCE soybean meal 2601 futures price (day session: 2,975 yuan/ton, +1.40%; night session: 2,991 yuan/ton, +0.84%). Spot prices and industry data such as trading volume and inventory are also provided [11]. - **News**: On October 28, CBOT soybean futures hit a 15 - month high due to expectations of a Sino - US trade agreement [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is 0; soybean trend intensity is +1 [13]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: Corn futures prices (C2511: day session 2,109 yuan/ton, +0.38%; night session 2,105 yuan/ton, -0.19%; C2601: day session 2,123 yuan/ton, +0.28%; night session 2,123 yuan/ton, 0.00%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [15]. - **News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Shekou prices also decreased by 10 yuan/ton [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [17]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: Raw sugar price is 14.37 cents/pound, -0.09; mainstream spot price is 5,730 yuan/ton, 0; futures main contract price is 5,483 yuan/ton, +38. Spreads and basis are also provided [18]. - **News**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, and exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons). The CAOC expects China's 25/26 sugar production to be 11.2 million tons, consumption to be 15.9 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601 futures price (day session: 13,565 yuan/ton, 0.00%; night session: 13,575 yuan/ton, 0.07%); CY2601 futures price (day session: 19,765 yuan/ton, -0.03%; night session: 19,785 yuan/ton, 0.10%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [21]. - **News**: Cotton spot trading is mostly sluggish, with some low - basis transactions being better. ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to optimistic expectations of international economic and trade relations [22][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [26]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg futures prices (egg 2511: 2,866 yuan/500 kg, -1.85%; egg 2601: 3,304 yuan/500 kg, -0.12%). Spreads, spot prices, and related industry data are also provided [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. Live Pigs - **Fundamentals**: Live pig spot prices (Henan: 12,630 yuan/ton; Sichuan: 12,300 yuan/ton; Guangdong: 12,360 yuan/ton). Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [30]. - **Market Information**: Yuexiu and Yangxiang added delivery warehouses. The national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Live pig trend intensity is 0 [31]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: Peanut spot prices (Liaoning 308 general: 8,200 yuan/ton; Henan Baisha general: 6,900 yuan/ton, -100; Xingcheng Xiaoriben: 7,900 yuan/ton, +40; Sudan refined rice: 8,650 yuan/ton, 0). Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [33]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, peanut prices are chaotic, and supply is not fully released. In Liaoning, farmers are reluctant to sell, and trading is stalemate. In Xingcheng, the market is active [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [37].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the mixed performance of corn, wheat, and soybean prices in the Chicago futures market, with corn and wheat experiencing declines while soybean prices saw a slight increase [1][2] - On October 13, the most active December corn contract closed at $4.11 per bushel, down 2.25 cents (0.54%) from the previous trading day, while the December wheat contract fell to $4.97 per bushel, down 1.75 cents (0.35%). In contrast, the November soybean contract rose by 1 cent (0.1%) to $10.08 per bushel [1] - The impressive corn yield in the northern and western Midwest of the U.S. is noted, with December corn futures attempting to hold the support level of $4.105 per bushel, and the next downside target set at $4.05 [1] Group 2 - China continues to seek Brazilian soybeans, reportedly purchasing 2-4 cargo ships of Brazilian soybeans, with estimates indicating that the sowing area in Brazil has reached 14-15% of the planned area [1] - The forecast for U.S. soybean planting area is expected to increase to 87-88 million acres by 2026 due to rising fertilizer costs and crop rotation willingness, while corn planting area may decrease to 92-93 million acres, and wheat planting area is projected to drop by 1-2 million acres to 45-46 million acres [1] - The global grain market is currently characterized by three major themes: record global wheat export supply, significant U.S. corn production with insufficient Midwest inventory, and the impact of U.S.-China trade relations on agricultural markets [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: September 22, 2025 - Analyst: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 [1][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 2.27%. The Fed's 25bp rate cut and relatively stable Sino-US economic and trade negotiations create a neutral and warm macro - environment. With the support of the consumer peak season and pre - holiday restocking, the commodity market may run stably in the short term. Precious metals are likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall, while the short - term trend of other sectors varies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector up 2.27%, energy and chemicals up 1.42%, and precious metals, agricultural products, and non - ferrous metals down 0.8%, 0.78%, and 0.66% respectively. The top - rising varieties were coking coal, coke, and glass, while the top - falling ones were live pigs, soybean meal, and tin. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market rebounded, and only the black and agricultural product sectors had net capital inflows [2][7]. - **Market Data Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the performance of different sectors and varieties, including the rise and fall of the Nanhua Index, the weekly contribution rate of each sector of the China Securities Commodity Index, the fluctuation of each variety's main contract, the performance of commodity - related sector indexes, the precipitation funds of each commodity sector, the weekly precipitation fund changes of each variety, the average trading - to - holding ratio of each variety, macro - high - frequency data, relevant ratios, and black - industry chain ratios [8][10][12] 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the sector initially corrected due to profit - taking but rebounded on the dovish remarks of the new Fed governor. It is likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the previous bullish sentiment cooled, but the restart of rate cuts still provides short - term support. With the pre - holiday restocking and improving macro - sentiment, the sector may run stably in the short term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved, production continued to decline, and inventory decreased slightly. Steel mills have pre - holiday restocking needs, but low profit per ton restricts further production resumption. The iron ore port inventory decreased, and the coking coal's capacity expansion is less likely. The sector fluctuates with policy expectations [3]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices rose and then fell last week. The Fed's 25bp rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the supply - demand contradiction after the peak oil - consumption season will gradually intensify. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term supply disruptions, but the premium space is limited. Trump's statement to lower oil prices also affects market sentiment. Oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester, the weaving load decreased slightly, and filament inventory continued to accumulate. The downstream has pre - holiday stocking expectations, but cost support is weak. Building materials such as glass and PVC still face high - supply and low - demand situations, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The actual export demand for US soybeans was poor, and the Sino - US call did not mention agricultural product trade. The overseas palm oil export data in the first half of September was inconsistent. The short - term domestic supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and the sector may run in a volatile manner [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - The report provides information on various commodity ETFs, including net value, weekly return, scale, share change, trading volume, trading volume change, and underlying assets. Gold - related ETFs have different performance in terms of return and scale change, and other commodity ETFs such as energy - chemical and agricultural - product - related ones also show different trends [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The DCE soybean meal and live hog futures showed downward trends on August 14, while the CBOT US soybean futures rose. The market is influenced by factors such as weather in the US Midwest, Brazilian soybean exports, and domestic supply - demand dynamics [1][2]. - The price of CBOT soybean futures is expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall due to factors like the overall downward adjustment of the US soybean harvest outlook and the undetermined weather situation. The domestic continuous soybean meal M01 contract is expected to reach new highs from September to October [15][16]. - The live hog market currently has an increase in supply from the breeding side and weak demand. However, the near - term contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [19]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2601 contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous trading day. The prices of coastal mainstream oil mills dropped by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2601 contract closed at 14130 yuan/ton, down 1.15%. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs was 13.72 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg. The CBOT US soybean main contract rose 0.94% to 1042 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the western part has active rainfall, and the eastern part is relatively dry. The temperature from last Thursday to this Monday was close to or higher than normal. The 6 - 10 - day outlook shows sporadic showers from Tuesday to Saturday, with the temperature close to or higher than normal. Most areas have good soil moisture as corn and soybeans enter the reproductive stage [3][4]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - From August 10 to 16, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to be 2.34 million tons, soybean meal exports 639,100 tons, and corn exports 2.1834 million tons [5]. - On August 13, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal shrank to 75,000 tons, with the average trading price rising to 3104.36 yuan/ton, reaching a three - month high [5]. - Affected by the improvement of the fundamentals in the US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report and the increasing weather risk premium, the CBOT soybean futures rose. On August 14, the import cost of US soybeans reached 4672 yuan, Brazilian soybeans 4075 yuan, and Argentine soybeans 3881 yuan, reaching new highs [5]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 50.2 million tons, up 2% from the previous estimate [6]. - As of August 7, the expected net sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 market year are between 200,000 - 700,000 tons, and in the 2025/26 market year are 400,000 - 900,000 tons. The expected net sales of US soybean meal in the 2024/25 market year are between 50,000 - 250,000 tons, and in the 2025/26 market year are 100,000 - 250,000 tons [6]. - Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.8 million tons [6]. - On August 14, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.17 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.19 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market decreased by 0.1% [7]. - In July, China's new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [7]. - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December this year [7]. 4. Data Charts - The report presents charts related to the prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live hogs, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China [10][11][15]. 5. Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures are expected to be bullish. The domestic continuous soybean meal M01 contract is in a strong position in the short - term, with the upper pressure range at 3250 - 3300 and the lower support at 3120. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to reach new highs from September to October. The spot price of soybean meal has increased, but the downstream demand is weak. The basis in the fourth quarter is not expected to decline significantly [16][17]. - **Live Hogs**: The supply from the breeding side has increased, and the demand is currently weak. The near - term contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [19].

Group 1: Report's Investment Ratings for the Industry - Both the soybean meal and corn sectors are rated as cautiously bearish [3][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the price showed a weak and volatile trend yesterday. With favorable weather in the main U.S. soybean - growing regions, soybean growth is expected to continue to improve. Macro - factors are significantly disturbing, and the trade relationship between China and the U.S. is expected to improve. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal remains loose with high soybean arrivals and rising inventories [1][3] - For corn, the price had a narrow - range fluctuation yesterday. On the domestic front, the supply side has stabilized after the digestion of negative factors, and the demand side has a decline in the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises and sufficient inventories in feed enterprises. Policy impacts are weakening, but there are still risks of market fluctuations due to the approaching new - crop listing and uncertain policy - grain release [4][6] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2983 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2910 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - U.S. Data: As of July 27, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, the flowering rate was 76%, and the pod - setting rate was 41%. As of July 24, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 40.97 million tons, and the cumulative export inspection volume in the 2024/25 season was 4720.33 million tons, a 10.4% year - on - year increase, reaching 93% of the annual export target [2] Market Analysis - The soybean meal futures price showed a weak and volatile trend. The good weather in the U.S. soybean - growing regions is conducive to soybean growth. Macro - factors are disturbing, and attention should be paid to policy changes. Domestically, the supply is loose with high soybean arrivals and rising inventories [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2302 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.73%); the closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2666 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.63%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4] - U.S. and Brazil Data: As of July 24, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 1.52 million tons, and the cumulative export inspection volume in the 2024/25 season was 60.34 million tons, a 29.3% year - on - year increase, reaching 86.4% of the USDA forecast target. In Brazil, the second - season corn harvest progress as of July 24 was 68%, and the 2024/25 corn production is expected to be 136.3 million tons [4][5] Market Analysis - The corn futures price had a narrow - range fluctuation. On the supply side, the market sentiment has stabilized after the digestion of negative factors. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises have sufficient inventories. Policy impacts are weakening, but there are still market risks [6] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, the textile industry is in the off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. Cotton is in the de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some Xinjiang areas increases the risk of heat damage to cotton, supporting a slightly stronger price trend, but the slow de - stocking process drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger with oscillations. One should also be vigilant about macro - factor risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for red dates is 10,425 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10; the main contract's position volume is 136,908 lots, an increase of 1,239; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,018 lots, a decrease of 239; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,893 lots, an increase of 209; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,745 lots, a decrease of 209 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 6 yuan/jin, in Henan is 4.3 yuan/jin; the wholesale price of special - grade red dates in Henan is 9.8 yuan/kg, in Hebei is 9.73 yuan/kg (a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg), in Guangdong is 11 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg); the first - grade red dates price in Guangdong is 9.6 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg). The unified prices of red dates in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar are 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and the price of Aksu is unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 318.7 million tons, and the planting area is 199.3 million hectares, a decrease of 4.1 million hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 10,520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons; the monthly export volume of red dates is 2,229,227 kg, a decrease of 132,571 kg; the cumulative export volume is 15,350,567 kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 1.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan/kg; the cumulative sales volume of red dates of好想你is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year production of red dates of好想youis - 34.59% [2] 3.6 Industry News - On July 9th, in the Aksu area, it rained with a temperature between 18 - 28°C, which is suitable for fruit setting. Jujube farmers are actively managing their orchards, and the jujube trees are gradually entering the physiological fruit - dropping stage. One should pay attention to the fruit - setting situation and weather changes. Internationally, as of the week ending July 6, 2025, the boll - setting rate of US cotton is 14% (up from 9% last week, compared to 18% last year and a five - year average of 15%), the budding rate is 48% (up from 40% last week, compared to 51% last year and a five - year average of 49%), and the good - to - excellent rate is 52% (up from 51% last week, compared to 45% last year). Recent weather is conducive to crop growth, and combined with a stronger US dollar and a weaker grain market, it has pushed down the price of US cotton. The US is imposing tariffs on imported products from countries such as Japan and South Korea, and Trump has threatened to impose a new 10% tariff on BRICS countries [2]