Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: September 22, 2025 - Analyst: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 [1][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 2.27%. The Fed's 25bp rate cut and relatively stable Sino-US economic and trade negotiations create a neutral and warm macro - environment. With the support of the consumer peak season and pre - holiday restocking, the commodity market may run stably in the short term. Precious metals are likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall, while the short - term trend of other sectors varies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector up 2.27%, energy and chemicals up 1.42%, and precious metals, agricultural products, and non - ferrous metals down 0.8%, 0.78%, and 0.66% respectively. The top - rising varieties were coking coal, coke, and glass, while the top - falling ones were live pigs, soybean meal, and tin. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market rebounded, and only the black and agricultural product sectors had net capital inflows [2][7]. - **Market Data Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the performance of different sectors and varieties, including the rise and fall of the Nanhua Index, the weekly contribution rate of each sector of the China Securities Commodity Index, the fluctuation of each variety's main contract, the performance of commodity - related sector indexes, the precipitation funds of each commodity sector, the weekly precipitation fund changes of each variety, the average trading - to - holding ratio of each variety, macro - high - frequency data, relevant ratios, and black - industry chain ratios [8][10][12] 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the sector initially corrected due to profit - taking but rebounded on the dovish remarks of the new Fed governor. It is likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the previous bullish sentiment cooled, but the restart of rate cuts still provides short - term support. With the pre - holiday restocking and improving macro - sentiment, the sector may run stably in the short term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved, production continued to decline, and inventory decreased slightly. Steel mills have pre - holiday restocking needs, but low profit per ton restricts further production resumption. The iron ore port inventory decreased, and the coking coal's capacity expansion is less likely. The sector fluctuates with policy expectations [3]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices rose and then fell last week. The Fed's 25bp rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the supply - demand contradiction after the peak oil - consumption season will gradually intensify. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term supply disruptions, but the premium space is limited. Trump's statement to lower oil prices also affects market sentiment. Oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester, the weaving load decreased slightly, and filament inventory continued to accumulate. The downstream has pre - holiday stocking expectations, but cost support is weak. Building materials such as glass and PVC still face high - supply and low - demand situations, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The actual export demand for US soybeans was poor, and the Sino - US call did not mention agricultural product trade. The overseas palm oil export data in the first half of September was inconsistent. The short - term domestic supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and the sector may run in a volatile manner [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - The report provides information on various commodity ETFs, including net value, weekly return, scale, share change, trading volume, trading volume change, and underlying assets. Gold - related ETFs have different performance in terms of return and scale change, and other commodity ETFs such as energy - chemical and agricultural - product - related ones also show different trends [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The DCE soybean meal and live hog futures showed downward trends on August 14, while the CBOT US soybean futures rose. The market is influenced by factors such as weather in the US Midwest, Brazilian soybean exports, and domestic supply - demand dynamics [1][2]. - The price of CBOT soybean futures is expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall due to factors like the overall downward adjustment of the US soybean harvest outlook and the undetermined weather situation. The domestic continuous soybean meal M01 contract is expected to reach new highs from September to October [15][16]. - The live hog market currently has an increase in supply from the breeding side and weak demand. However, the near - term contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [19]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2601 contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous trading day. The prices of coastal mainstream oil mills dropped by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2601 contract closed at 14130 yuan/ton, down 1.15%. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs was 13.72 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg. The CBOT US soybean main contract rose 0.94% to 1042 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the western part has active rainfall, and the eastern part is relatively dry. The temperature from last Thursday to this Monday was close to or higher than normal. The 6 - 10 - day outlook shows sporadic showers from Tuesday to Saturday, with the temperature close to or higher than normal. Most areas have good soil moisture as corn and soybeans enter the reproductive stage [3][4]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - From August 10 to 16, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to be 2.34 million tons, soybean meal exports 639,100 tons, and corn exports 2.1834 million tons [5]. - On August 13, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal shrank to 75,000 tons, with the average trading price rising to 3104.36 yuan/ton, reaching a three - month high [5]. - Affected by the improvement of the fundamentals in the US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report and the increasing weather risk premium, the CBOT soybean futures rose. On August 14, the import cost of US soybeans reached 4672 yuan, Brazilian soybeans 4075 yuan, and Argentine soybeans 3881 yuan, reaching new highs [5]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 50.2 million tons, up 2% from the previous estimate [6]. - As of August 7, the expected net sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 market year are between 200,000 - 700,000 tons, and in the 2025/26 market year are 400,000 - 900,000 tons. The expected net sales of US soybean meal in the 2024/25 market year are between 50,000 - 250,000 tons, and in the 2025/26 market year are 100,000 - 250,000 tons [6]. - Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.8 million tons [6]. - On August 14, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.17 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.19 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market decreased by 0.1% [7]. - In July, China's new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [7]. - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December this year [7]. 4. Data Charts - The report presents charts related to the prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live hogs, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China [10][11][15]. 5. Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures are expected to be bullish. The domestic continuous soybean meal M01 contract is in a strong position in the short - term, with the upper pressure range at 3250 - 3300 and the lower support at 3120. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to reach new highs from September to October. The spot price of soybean meal has increased, but the downstream demand is weak. The basis in the fourth quarter is not expected to decline significantly [16][17]. - **Live Hogs**: The supply from the breeding side has increased, and the demand is currently weak. The near - term contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [19].

Group 1: Report's Investment Ratings for the Industry - Both the soybean meal and corn sectors are rated as cautiously bearish [3][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the price showed a weak and volatile trend yesterday. With favorable weather in the main U.S. soybean - growing regions, soybean growth is expected to continue to improve. Macro - factors are significantly disturbing, and the trade relationship between China and the U.S. is expected to improve. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal remains loose with high soybean arrivals and rising inventories [1][3] - For corn, the price had a narrow - range fluctuation yesterday. On the domestic front, the supply side has stabilized after the digestion of negative factors, and the demand side has a decline in the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises and sufficient inventories in feed enterprises. Policy impacts are weakening, but there are still risks of market fluctuations due to the approaching new - crop listing and uncertain policy - grain release [4][6] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2983 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2910 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - U.S. Data: As of July 27, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, the flowering rate was 76%, and the pod - setting rate was 41%. As of July 24, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 40.97 million tons, and the cumulative export inspection volume in the 2024/25 season was 4720.33 million tons, a 10.4% year - on - year increase, reaching 93% of the annual export target [2] Market Analysis - The soybean meal futures price showed a weak and volatile trend. The good weather in the U.S. soybean - growing regions is conducive to soybean growth. Macro - factors are disturbing, and attention should be paid to policy changes. Domestically, the supply is loose with high soybean arrivals and rising inventories [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2302 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.73%); the closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2666 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.63%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4] - U.S. and Brazil Data: As of July 24, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 1.52 million tons, and the cumulative export inspection volume in the 2024/25 season was 60.34 million tons, a 29.3% year - on - year increase, reaching 86.4% of the USDA forecast target. In Brazil, the second - season corn harvest progress as of July 24 was 68%, and the 2024/25 corn production is expected to be 136.3 million tons [4][5] Market Analysis - The corn futures price had a narrow - range fluctuation. On the supply side, the market sentiment has stabilized after the digestion of negative factors. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises have sufficient inventories. Policy impacts are weakening, but there are still market risks [6] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, the textile industry is in the off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. Cotton is in the de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some Xinjiang areas increases the risk of heat damage to cotton, supporting a slightly stronger price trend, but the slow de - stocking process drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger with oscillations. One should also be vigilant about macro - factor risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for red dates is 10,425 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10; the main contract's position volume is 136,908 lots, an increase of 1,239; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,018 lots, a decrease of 239; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,893 lots, an increase of 209; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,745 lots, a decrease of 209 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 6 yuan/jin, in Henan is 4.3 yuan/jin; the wholesale price of special - grade red dates in Henan is 9.8 yuan/kg, in Hebei is 9.73 yuan/kg (a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg), in Guangdong is 11 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg); the first - grade red dates price in Guangdong is 9.6 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg). The unified prices of red dates in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar are 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and the price of Aksu is unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 318.7 million tons, and the planting area is 199.3 million hectares, a decrease of 4.1 million hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 10,520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons; the monthly export volume of red dates is 2,229,227 kg, a decrease of 132,571 kg; the cumulative export volume is 15,350,567 kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 1.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan/kg; the cumulative sales volume of red dates of好想你is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year production of red dates of好想youis - 34.59% [2] 3.6 Industry News - On July 9th, in the Aksu area, it rained with a temperature between 18 - 28°C, which is suitable for fruit setting. Jujube farmers are actively managing their orchards, and the jujube trees are gradually entering the physiological fruit - dropping stage. One should pay attention to the fruit - setting situation and weather changes. Internationally, as of the week ending July 6, 2025, the boll - setting rate of US cotton is 14% (up from 9% last week, compared to 18% last year and a five - year average of 15%), the budding rate is 48% (up from 40% last week, compared to 51% last year and a five - year average of 49%), and the good - to - excellent rate is 52% (up from 51% last week, compared to 45% last year). Recent weather is conducive to crop growth, and combined with a stronger US dollar and a weaker grain market, it has pushed down the price of US cotton. The US is imposing tariffs on imported products from countries such as Japan and South Korea, and Trump has threatened to impose a new 10% tariff on BRICS countries [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - The short - term trends of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil are rebounds; cotton is under pressure during the rebound; jujube is at risk of a decline; and live pigs are in a wide - range oscillation [1]. - For soybean meal, the overall fundamentals remain bearish, and caution is needed when chasing long positions. For rapeseed meal, due to the strong price of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, there are opportunities to go long at low prices. For palm oil, attention should be paid to the risk fluctuations of crude oil in the future, and caution is needed when chasing long positions above 8700 yuan. For cotton, although there is support at the bottom, the upward momentum is weak. For jujube, be vigilant against the risk of the market rising first and then falling. For live pigs, consider short - selling on rebounds or reverse calendar spreads [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: Internationally, South American soybean production is basically determined, and the planting of US soybeans has started with normal rainfall in June. Domestically, ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are accumulating, and soybean meal supply is also entering a stock - building period. Feed enterprise inventories are gradually returning to the normal range, and spot trading has been average recently [3]. - **Data**: As of June 13, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 742.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.50 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 599.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.41 million tons; the soybean meal inventory was 41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.49 million tons [3]. - **Trading Advice**: The previous day's soybean meal rebounded, but approaching the previous high resistance, it is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions and to wait and see. Before the release of the US soybean acreage report, it is expected to run above the 20 - day moving average [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: Domestically, rapeseed meal inventories are much higher than in the past two years, and the new - season rapeseed has been harvested and listed in May. However, from June to August, rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, and the long - term import volume is expected to be low. The price of old - crop Canadian rapeseed is strong [7]. - **Data**: As of June 13, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 17.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.55 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 million tons; the unexecuted contracts were 5.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.45 million tons [7]. - **Trading Advice**: The short - term adjustment space of the rapeseed meal main contract is limited, and opportunities to go long at low prices can be considered. Pay attention to the subsequent Sino - Canadian trade situation for far - month contracts [1][7]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the inventory - building cycle of Southeast Asian palm oil has begun, but factors such as India's increased imports and the promotion of Malaysia's B20 policy have affected market sentiment. Domestically, the commercial inventory of palm oil is low, and imports have improved compared to the previous period [1]. - **Data**: As of the 24th week of 2025 (June 13), the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 40.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.70 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.20 million tons. The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending requirement of 5.61 billion gallons of biomass - based diesel (BBD) in 2026. In May 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 599,000 tons month - on - month, and China's palm oil imports were 180,000 tons [8]. - **Trading Advice**: The palm oil price rebounded, but considering the inventory - building cycle, caution is needed when chasing long positions above 8700 yuan, and attention should be paid to position control [1][9]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the US cotton planting progress is slow, and the drought situation has improved. Domestically, new cotton is growing well, the import of cotton in May decreased, and the destocking of domestic cotton is fast. However, downstream orders have weakened [11][12]. - **Data**: As of June 16, the US cotton planting progress was 85%. In May 2025, the domestic import of cotton resources was about 124,662 tons. The weekly order volume of textile enterprises decreased by 0.51 days to 9.91 days [11][12]. - **Trading Advice**: The Zhengzhou cotton's upward momentum is weak, but there is support at the bottom, and it is expected to operate in a short - term range [1][13]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: In the production areas, jujube trees are growing well, but high temperatures may affect flowering. The inventory is high, and the demand is in the off - season [15]. - **Data**: This week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,680 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13 tons, higher than the same period by 4,531 tons [15]. - **Trading Advice**: Be vigilant against the risk of the jujube market rising first and then falling, and continuously pay attention to the actual situation in the production areas [1][15]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the planned slaughter in June has decreased slightly, but there may still be an increase in the slaughter plan. In the medium - term, there will be pressure on supply from October to November. In the long - term, the far - month production capacity has not shown an inflection point. The demand for slaughter has decreased, and the second - fattening replenishment has increased [17]. - **Data**: In May 2025, the number of newly - born piglets in steel - union designated enterprises increased by 64,600 to 543,390. The national sample enterprises' pig inventory in May was 37.0841 million, and the slaughter volume was 11.0882 million heads [16][17]. - **Trading Advice**: It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds or conduct reverse calendar spreads for the 09 and 11 contracts, focusing on the subsequent adjustment of production capacity [1][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - DCE soybean meal's main 2509 contract rose 0.49% to 3077 yuan/ton, while coastal oil mills' quotes decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. DCE live hog's main 2509 contract dropped 0.54% to 13760 yuan/ton, and the national average ex - farm price of ternary live hogs was 14.16 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg. Overnight, CBOT US soybeans' main contract fell 0.12% to 1073 cents/bushel [2]. - For soybean meal, the US soybean market is stable, with import costs rising slightly. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is good, with strong basis trading. It is expected to remain stable with an upward bias. For live hogs, the market has an oversupply situation, and the rebound space of hog prices is limited, with short - term contracts likely to oscillate at a low level [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - DCE soybean meal's main 2509 contract closed at 3077 yuan/ton, up 0.49% or 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Coastal oil mills' quotes decreased 10 - 50 yuan/ton, except for Tianjin which rose 20 yuan/ton to 2980 yuan/ton. DCE live hog's main 2509 contract closed at 13760 yuan/ton, down 0.54% or 75 yuan/ton. The national average ex - farm price of ternary live hogs was 14.16 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg. Overnight, CBOT US soybeans' main contract fell 0.12% to 1073 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Main Producing Area Weather - From June 13th, in the US Midwest agricultural main producing areas, there will be scattered to widespread scattered showers in the western region before Sunday. In the southern region, the temperature will be near to above normal before Saturday and above normal from Sunday to next Monday. In the eastern region, there will be scattered showers before Sunday and scattered to widespread scattered showers next Monday. The rainfall in the southern part of the US Midwest has decreased since the middle of this week, and more rainfall may last until Friday and then move eastward. Overall, the weather pattern next week is also active, which is beneficial for soil moisture in the western region but not good for farmers' field operations [4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - On June 18th, the CNF quotes of imported Brazilian soybeans for August - September shipments were 465 and 473 US dollars/ton, with the arrival and duty - paid costs in South China being 3810 and 3860 yuan/ton respectively, up 50 - 100 yuan/ton from last week. The import cost of US soybeans on June 18th was 4629 yuan, up 5 yuan; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3830 yuan, up 4 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3682 yuan, down 5 yuan. The total bean meal sales of major domestic oil mills on June 18th were 93.47 million tons, up 71.48 million tons from the previous day. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate was 69.15%, up 2.07% [5]. - Analysts expect the US soybean production in the 2025 - 2026 season to be 118 million tons, slightly higher than the previous forecast. The expected US soybean export net sales for the 2024/25 market year as of June 12th were between 0 - 40 million tons, and for the 2025/26 market year were 0 - 20 million tons. Rainfall in the prairie region will help relieve drought, and about 40% of the area is experiencing drought. Canada will release a sowing area report on June 27th, and the rapeseed sowing area in March was 21.6 million acres, down 1.7% from the 2024/25 season [6]. - In May 2025, China's cumulative feed production was 27.621 million tons, up 3.68% month - on - month and 7.49% year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past four years. As of June 17th, the operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 28.23%, up 0.81% from last week, and the frozen meat storage capacity rate was 17.34%, up 0.02% from last week. The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week of June 14th was 245,000, in line with market expectations. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% and is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025 and 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027 [6][7]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the prices of wind soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, the prices of wind rapeseed meal in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, the prices of wind live hogs in Henan and DCE live hog futures, live hog basis, China's soybean inventory, and China's soybean meal inventory [10][12][14][15]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil has been digested, and the US soybean market is stable. The import cost is rising slightly. The sowing of US soybeans is almost finished, but the excellent - good rate is lower than expected. Domestically, the soybean supply is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate is high, and the soybean meal inventory is rising. With the strengthening of US soybeans, the import cost increases, and the downstream demand is good, with active basis trading. The future focus will be on the US soybean planting area and weather conditions, and it is expected to remain stable with an upward bias [17]. - For live hogs, on the supply side, farmers are accelerating the slaughter of large hogs, but due to heavy rainfall in the south and some second - fattening farmers entering the market, the supply has temporarily shrunk, supporting the hog price. On the demand side, summer heat reduces pork consumption. The overall market still has an oversupply situation, and the rebound space of hog prices is limited. The short - term contracts may oscillate at a low level [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: The US biofuel policy and Middle - East geopolitical situation are both favorable [2][4]. - Soybean oil: Expected to oscillate upwards [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed slightly higher, and domestic soybean meal futures are in an adjustment and oscillation phase [2][15]. - Soybean: Spot prices are stable, and the futures market is in an adjustment and oscillation phase [2][15]. - Corn: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner [2][18]. - Sugar: In a low - level consolidation phase [2][22]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the influence of external markets [2][26]. - Eggs: The culling of laying hens is accelerating, waiting for the bullish factors in the peak season to materialize [2][33]. - Pigs: Waiting for spot price confirmation, with the cost center of long - term contracts moving down [2][35]. - Peanuts: There is support at the lower level [2][38]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil a. Fundamental Data - Palm oil: The closing price of the main contract during the day was 8,518 yuan/ton, up 0.85%, and 8,528 yuan/ton at night, up 0.12%. The trading volume was 655,571 lots, a decrease of 208,528 lots, and the open interest was 512,360 lots, an increase of 9,252 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [5]. - Soybean oil: The closing price of the main contract during the day was 8,084 yuan/ton, up 1.40%, and 8,098 yuan/ton at night. The trading volume was 427,311 lots, an increase of 15,543 lots, and the open interest was 585,384 lots, an increase of 19,515 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [5]. b. Macro and Industry News - The conflict between Iran and Israel may increase the export cost of Malaysian palm oil due to rising logistics and transportation costs [6][7]. - Indian officials called for the reversal of the decision to reduce the import tariff of crude palm oil by 10% [8]. - Indian refineries cancelled 65,000 tons of crude palm oil orders due to the sudden surge in Malaysian palm oil prices [9]. c. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 1; Soybean oil trend intensity: 1 [14]. 2. Soybean Meal and Soybean a. Fundamental Data - Soybean meal: The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 during the day was 3,062 yuan/ton, up 0.03%, and 3,062 yuan/ton at night, down 0.29%. The trading volume was 864,500 tons, and the inventory was 421,400 tons [15]. - Soybean: The closing price of DCE soybean 2509 during the day was 4,258 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and 4,234 yuan/ton at night, down 0.63% [15]. b. Macro and Industry News - On June 18, CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher, driven by the strong rebound of wheat. The Ukrainian parliament rejected the proposal to impose a 10% export tariff on soybeans and rapeseed [15][17]. c. Trend Intensity - Soybean meal trend intensity: 0; Soybean trend intensity: 0 (only for the daily price fluctuation of the main contract on the reporting day) [17]. 3. Corn a. Fundamental Data - The closing price of C2507 was 2,363 yuan/ton, up 0.17% during the day, and remained unchanged at night. The trading volume was 361,246 lots, an increase of 21,257 lots, and the open interest was 493,230 lots, a decrease of 62,344 lots. - The closing price of C2509 was 2,397 yuan/ton, up 0.17% during the day, and 2,399 yuan/ton at night, up 0.08%. The trading volume was 472,636 lots, an increase of 218,445 lots, and the open interest was 837,782 lots, an increase of 60,893 lots [19]. b. Macro and Industry News - The northern corn port - collection price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in other regions was stable or rising [20]. c. Trend Intensity - Corn trend intensity: 0 [21]. 4. Sugar a. Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price was 16.35 cents/pound, down 0.1 cent. The mainstream spot price was 6,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The futures main contract price was 5,679 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton [22]. b. Macro and Industry News - Globally, the USDA expects a 4.73% increase in production in the 25/26 season. In Brazil, exports in May decreased by 20% year - on - year. In India, the 24/25 season's sugar production was 25.74 million tons as of May 15. In China, imports of sugar, syrup, and premixes decreased significantly from January to April [22]. - Domestically, the CAOC expects the 24/25 season's production to be 11.15 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of May, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons [23]. c. Trend Intensity - Sugar trend intensity: 0 [25]. 5. Cotton a. Fundamental Data - The closing price of CF2509 was 13,540 yuan/ton, up 0.11% during the day, and 13,470 yuan/ton at night, down 0.52%. The trading volume was 169,609 lots, a decrease of 29,392 lots, and the open interest was 797,362 lots, an increase of 3,511 lots [26]. b. Macro and Industry News - The domestic cotton spot market was sluggish, and the cotton yarn and fabric markets were also weak. ICE cotton futures fell due to concerns about demand and good weather in the US cotton - growing areas [27]. c. Trend Intensity - Cotton trend intensity: - 1 [30]. 6. Eggs a. Fundamental Data - The closing price of egg 2507 was 2,956 yuan/500 kg, up 3.10%, and the trading volume was 43,139 lots, with the open interest decreasing by 8,723 lots. - The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,691 yuan/500 kg, up 0.85%, and the trading volume was 17,581 lots, with the open interest decreasing by 798 lots [33]. b. Trend Intensity - Egg trend intensity: 0 [33]. 7. Pigs a. Fundamental Data - The Henan spot price was 14,330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year. The Sichuan spot price was 13,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year. The Guangdong spot price was 15,640 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [35]. - The closing price of pig 2507 was 13,340 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year. The closing price of pig 2509 was 13,835 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton year - on - year. The closing price of pig 2511 was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [35]. b. Market Logic - The current futures market is in the expectation - trading stage. The 09 contract is strong due to the expected bottoming - out and rising in July. In the long - term, the inventory cycle has its own characteristics, with an expected reverse spread structure. Short - term attention should be paid to capital sentiment [37]. c. Trend Intensity - Pig trend intensity: 0 [36]. 8. Peanuts a. Fundamental Data - The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 9,460 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The closing price of PK510 was 8,254 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The closing price of PK511 was 8,042 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [38]. b. Spot Market Focus - In most peanut - producing areas, raw material trading is almost over, mainly inventory trading. Prices in some areas are stable, and in some areas, they are slightly stronger [39]. c. Trend Intensity - Peanut trend intensity: 0 [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices of various commodities, weather forecasts, supply - demand data, macroeconomic news, and fund flow information. It also provides updates on the position changes in the futures market and the impact of policies on the industry. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 01 Overnight行情 - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 08 is 3927.00, with a previous day's increase of 2.27%. Brent 08 (ICE) closed at 75.18, up 6.88% the previous day and 2.73% overnight. NYMEX US crude oil 07 closed at 73.18, up 6.27% the previous day and 1.89% overnight [1] - The latest value of the US dollar index is 98.11, up 0.24%. The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.1772, down 0.04% [1] 02 Spot行情 - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 8670, 8540, and 8480 respectively, with corresponding basis of 490, 360, and 300, and no daily basis change [2] - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8020, 8080, 8070, and 8020 respectively, with corresponding basis of 212, 272, 262, and 212, and basis changes of - 32, - 2, 8, and - 2 [2] 03 - US soybean - producing states are expected to have rainfall above average and high temperatures from June 18 - 22 [3] - The Midwest of the US may still receive showers this week, which is beneficial for soil moisture improvement in the western region but not conducive to field operations [5] - From June 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 662,580 tons, a 26.3% increase from the same period last month [6] - As of the week ending June 10, CBOT soybean long positions decreased by 1533 to 190383, and short positions decreased by 11982 to 119987 [7] - As of the week ending June 10, about 13% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, compared to 16% the previous week and 1% last year [7] - The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending requirement of 5.61 billion gallons of biomass - based diesel (BBD) in 2026, a significant increase from 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 [7] 04 Macro News International News - The preliminary value of the US one - year inflation rate expectation in June is 5.1%, lower than the expected 6.4% and the previous value of 6.6% [16] - The Eurozone's seasonally - adjusted industrial output in April decreased by 2.4% month - on - month, and increased by 0.8% year - on - year [17] Domestic News - On June 13, the USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.1772, down 31 points (appreciation of the RMB) [18] - As of May, M2 balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, and M1 balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [18] 05 Fund Flow - On June 13, 2025, the net inflow of funds in the futures market was 51.58 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 18.16 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net inflow of 69.73 billion yuan in stock index futures [21] - The funds flowing into CSI 300 stock index futures were 35.81 billion yuan, and those flowing into CSI 1000 stock index futures were 18.16 billion yuan [20] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market faces significant pressure from a bumper harvest, and the domestic soybean supply pressure is also obvious, with inventory increasing and prices under pressure [4]. - The price of sugar is expected to remain weak due to factors such as the potential increase in global sugar production in the 2025/26 season and sluggish global demand [7][9]. - The oil market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and factors such as the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil, the weather in the United States, and the purchase situation in China and India need to be monitored [19][20]. - Corn prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term in the spot market and show strong oscillations in the futures market, affected by factors such as domestic supply, weather, and policy expectations [28]. - The overall supply pressure of the pig market is still evident, and prices are expected to oscillate [34][35]. - The peanut market is weak, with low spot trading volume and expected increase in new - season planting area, and short - selling is recommended for the 10 - contract peanut [38][40]. - Egg prices in the near - month 07 contract are expected to be weak, while the far - month 8 and 9 contracts may rise if the supply situation improves [48][49]. - Apple futures prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger in June, supported by low inventory and potential impacts on fruit setting [54][56]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - to - long - term, but the market is subject to the uncertainty of US policies [63][64]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 External Market Conditions - CBOT soybean index fell 0.24% to 1043.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.07% to 302 US dollars per short ton [2]. Important Information - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75%. The export inspection volume in the week ending June 5, 2025, was 547,040 tons. The 2024/25 US soybean ending stocks were estimated at 351 million bushels [2]. - As of the week ending June 6, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2446 million tons, the operating rate was 63.1%, the soybean inventory was 6.1029 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 382,500 tons [2]. Logic Analysis - The international soybean market has a significant bumper - harvest pressure, and the domestic soybean supply pressure is obvious, with inventory increasing and prices under pressure [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: M11 - 1 positive spread. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]. Sugar External Market Conditions - ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.21 (1.27%) to 16.70 cents per pound [6]. Important Information - The FAO sugar price index in May averaged 109.4 points, down 2.9 points (2.6%) month - on - month. The 24/25 sugar - crushing season in Guangdong had a cumulative sugar production of 654,500 tons, and the industrial inventory was 0 tons [7]. Logic Analysis - Raw sugar has been dragged down by the expected bumper harvest in Brazil and broken through the support level. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain weak due to factors such as the lag in summer stocking demand and the potential increase in processing sugar supply [9]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: May remain weak in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11][12]. Oilseeds and Oils External Market Conditions - The overnight CBOT US soybean oil main price decreased by 0.48% to 47.41 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price decreased by 0.15% to 3,919 ringgit per ton [14]. Important Information - Analysts' average forecasts for the 2024/25 US soybean ending stocks were 351 million bushels, and for the 2025/26 were 298 million bushels. As of June 8, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [15][17]. - As of the week ending June 6, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 372,600 tons, and the soybean oil commercial inventory was 812,700 tons [18]. Logic Analysis - The market expects the Malaysian palm oil to continue to increase production and accumulate inventory in May. India has lowered the crude palm oil tax rate, and the US weather is currently good but may turn dry in the future. The domestic soybean oil is in a stage of inventory accumulation, and the rapeseed oil supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [19]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Expected to oscillate in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [20][21][22]. Corn/Corn Starch External Market Changes - CBOT corn futures declined, with the main contract falling 2.1% to 433.5 cents per bushel [26]. Important Information - The CBOT corn futures fell due to good weather in the Midwest corn - producing areas and uncertain export prospects. The 2024/25 corn sales rate in Mato Grosso was 51.05%. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71%, the planting rate was 97%, and the emergence rate was 87% [27]. - On June 10, the purchase price at the northern port was 2,270 - 2,290 yuan per ton, and the corn price in the North China production area was strong [27]. Logic Analysis - The US corn planting has accelerated, and the weather is good, so the external - market corn price continues to decline. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, while the futures price will show strong oscillations [28]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The external - market 07 - contract corn will oscillate at the bottom. Wait and see for the 07 - contract corn. - Arbitrage: Conduct oscillating operations on the corn - starch spread, and widen the spread when the price is low. Hold the long - corn and short - 07 - contract corn position. - Options: Those with spot positions can consider the strategy of selling call options when the price is high [31][32]. Pigs Relevant Information - The pig price showed a rebound trend. As of the week ending June 6, the 7 - kg piglet price was 481 yuan per head, and the 50 - kg sow price was 1,626 yuan per head. On June 9, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 20.46 yuan per kilogram [34]. Logic Analysis - The supply pressure from the breeding side is still evident, and the overall price pressure is relatively significant due to the relatively high inventory [34]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillate mainly. - Arbitrage: LH79 reverse spread. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [35][36]. Peanuts Important Information - The peanut prices in different regions were reported. The peanut oil price was strong, while the peanut meal sales were slow. As of June 5, 2025, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 144,720 tons, and the peanut oil inventory was 40,100 tons [36][37]. Logic Analysis - The peanut spot trading volume is low, the import volume has decreased significantly, the downstream consumption is weak, and the market expects an increase in the new - season planting area [38]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - sell the 10 - contract peanut when the price is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the pk510 - C - 8800 options [40][41][42]. Eggs Important Information - The average price of the main egg - producing areas was 2.75 yuan per catty, and that of the main egg - consuming areas was 2.95 yuan per catty. In May, the national in - lay hen inventory was 1.334 billion, and the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 46.985 million [44]. - As of the week ending June 6, the national main - area egg - laying hen culling volume was 19.97 million, the national representative - area egg sales volume was 8,856 tons, the production - link inventory was 0.94 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.03 days [45][47]. Trading Logic - The near - month 07 - contract egg price is expected to be weak, while the far - month 8 and 9 contracts may rise if the supply situation improves [48]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the far - month 8 and 9 contracts in mid - to - late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [49]. Apples Important Information - As of May 21, 2025, the national main - area apple cold - storage inventory was 1.7085 million tons. The 2024 - 2025 season's 80 first - and second - grade apple storage profit in Qixia was 0.9 yuan per catty [52][53]. Trading Logic - The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples. The 10 - contract apple futures price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in June [54][56]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Build long positions in the AP10 contract when the price is low. - Arbitrage: Wait and see first. - Options: Wait and see first [61]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn External Market Impact - ICE US cotton rose on Friday, with the main contract rising 0.39 (0.59%) to 65.97 cents per pound [58]. Important Information - The average temperature and rainfall in the US cotton - producing areas and the rainfall in the Indian cotton - producing areas were reported. The cotton spot trading was divided, and the sales and transaction basis were reported [59][60][62]. Trading Logic - The current trading logic is mainly macro - oriented. In the short term, the price will oscillate within a range, and in the medium - to - long - term, it may decline, but the market is subject to the uncertainty of US policies [63]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate strongly under macro - influence. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [64][65][66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term rebound for soybean meal**: With South American soybean production mostly determined, US soybean planting progressing well and future rainfall sufficient, and domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories increasing, the overall fundamental situation is bearish. However, there was a technical rebound, with potential short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Resistance is strong in the 3030 - 3070 yuan range in the next one to two weeks [1][3]. - **Short - term oscillation for rapeseed meal**: Current rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories at oil mills are not under pressure, but high commercial rapeseed meal inventories are bearish for the July contract. Import volume is expected to decrease in the long - term, but Sino - Canadian dialogue may affect market sentiment. The short - term adjustment space is limited [1][7]. - **Short - term rebound and consolidation for palm oil**: Domestic palm oil commercial inventory is low, and imports have improved. The Southeast Asian palm oil inventory accumulation cycle has started. India's import increase and tariff reduction, as well as Malaysia's B20 policy, are positive factors. However, due to the inventory accumulation cycle, the strategy is to sell at high prices [1][9]. - **Short - term strength for cotton**: The US main cotton - growing areas have a moderate excellent - good rate, and future weather is favorable for production. In China, there is an increasing production expectation but the risk of high - temperature disturbances in June. Inventory reduction is faster than expected, but downstream orders are weak, and clothing export prospects have not significantly improved [1][13]. - **Rebound under pressure for red dates**: New - season jujube trees are growing well, but old - crop high inventory remains a problem. Downstream consumption is weak, and the upward driving force for the price is limited [1][15]. - **Weak operation for live pigs**: The long - term supply pressure guided by the number of breeding sows has not improved significantly. In the near - term, both group farms and farmers are increasing the slaughter volume, and the demand is weak. The strategy is to sell on rebounds or conduct inter - month reverse spreads [1][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International situation**: South American soybean production is determined, and US soybean planting has started with a progress much higher than last year and the five - year average. Future rainfall is sufficient, and the CPC's June rainfall outlook is favorable [1][3]. - **Domestic situation**: Ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are continuously increasing. As the operation rate rises, soybean meal supply will gradually ease and enter an inventory accumulation cycle. Feed enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish. The average monthly import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons. As of June 6, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.462 million tons, and 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 6.1029 million tons, with a 4.70% increase from the previous week [3]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3019 yuan/ton, up 0.30%. The overall fundamental situation is bearish, but there was a technical rebound. Short - selling opportunities after the rebound can be considered, with resistance in the 3030 - 3070 yuan range in the next one to two weeks [1][2][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory situation**: As of June 6, coastal areas' main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 202,000 tons, down 30,000 tons from the previous week; rapeseed meal inventory was 19,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; and unexecuted contracts were 51,000 tons, down 11,000 tons [7]. - **Supply and demand**: Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, and new - season rapeseed has been harvested in May. From May to July, rapeseed imports are expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term import volume is expected to be low. Sino - Canadian dialogue may affect market sentiment, and the short - term adjustment space is limited [1][7]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2614 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. Attention should be paid to the risk of subsequent tariff policies [1][4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory situation**: As of June 6, 2025 (Week 23), the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 372,600 tons, up 2.36% from the previous week and down 0.67% from last year [9]. - **International factors**: India's palm oil imports in May are expected to increase by 87% to 600,000 tons, and it has reduced the import tariff on edible oils. Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 30 days of May were strong, and the B20 policy is being promoted [9]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8182 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. It is expected to be bullish at the beginning of this week, but attention should be paid to the adjustment risk after the release of Malaysia's May inventory data. The strategy is to sell at high prices due to the inventory accumulation cycle [1][8][9]. Cotton - **International situation**: The US cotton planting rate is 66%, and about 7% of the cotton - growing areas are affected by drought, which has decreased by 1%. The excellent - good rate is 49%, lower than the same - period level by 12%. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is estimated to be 3.9048 million tons, a 5.5% increase year - on - year. India's southwest monsoon has stalled, and Pakistan's sown area has reached 95% of last year's, with a slight risk of production decline [11]. - **Domestic situation**: Xinjiang's cotton seedlings are mostly budding and some are blooming. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage in southern Xinjiang. The cost is expected to decrease slightly. The inventory reduction is fast, but downstream orders are weak, and clothing exports have not significantly improved [12][13]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 13495 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. ICE cotton is expected to oscillate weakly below 70 cents. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 13700 yuan [1][10][13]. Red Dates - **Production situation**: Southern Xinjiang's jujube trees are in the full - bloom stage, and the growth is good. The 36 - sample physical inventory is 106,753 tons, 85 tons higher than the previous week and 4445 tons higher than the same period [15]. - **Market situation**: The supply in the sales area is continuous, and the demand is weak. With the increase in temperature, the demand for dried fruits is expected to decline seasonally [15]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 8910 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to weather - related price fluctuations [1][14][15]. Live Pigs - **Supply situation**: In the short - term, the planned slaughter in June is expected to decrease slightly, but the supply pressure has not significantly improved. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets in May increased, which will bring pressure in Q4. In the long - term, the reduction of breeding sows in April is not significant enough to indicate a turning point in production capacity [18]. - **Demand situation**: Terminal demand is cooling with the rise in temperature, and the support from secondary fattening is weakening [18][19]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 13475 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The strategy is to sell on rebounds or conduct inter - month reverse spreads [17][18][19].