记者 辛圆 2月27日，中国人民银行发布公告，为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，中国人民银行决 定自2026年3月2日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下调至0。 下一步，中国人民银行将继续引导金融机构优化对企业汇率避险服务，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平 上的基本稳定。 招联首席经济学家、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼对智通财经表示，央行决定将远期售汇业务的 外汇风险准备金率从20%下调为0，这是人民银行根据市场环境变化，运用宏观审慎工具来调节市场供 求、稳定汇率预期的操作，旨在支持和鼓励企业管理汇率风险，同时释放抑制人民币过度升值的信号。 董希淼指出，当前人民币面临较强的升值压力，企业远期购汇的动机通常较弱此时，较高的准备金率 （20%）意义不大，反而增加了企业正常的套保成本。将准备金率下调至0，有助于鼓励有实际需求的 企业，抓住成本低的时机进行套期保值，锁定汇率风险。 董希淼同时称，下调准备金率通常被视为抑制人民币汇率过快升值的信号。当企业锁汇成本降低，远期 购汇需求可能会适度释放，从而在外汇市场上增加对美元的需求，有助于平衡外汇供求，保持人民币汇 率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定，防止 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2024, the RMB exchange rate showed resilience in a complex macro - background. The nominal effective exchange rate index of the RMB increased, and it appreciated against a basket of currencies. Although it depreciated against the US dollar, it was less than most currencies. However, due to the continuous "inversion" of the Sino - US interest rate spread, there was always adjustment pressure on the RMB exchange rate. [8][15] - In 2025, changes in domestic and foreign macro - events may intensify the volatility of the RMB exchange rate. The scale of domestic incremental counter - cyclical regulatory policies and the overseas political and economic situation, especially Trump's re - election, will have an impact on the RMB exchange rate. The differentiation of Sino - US monetary policies may also cause adjustment pressure on the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar. [9][37] - In the short term, macro - prudential tools are crucial for stabilizing the RMB exchange rate, while in the long term, it depends on positive and effective macro - policies. [10][44] 3. Summary by Directory 2024 RMB Exchange Rate Review - **RMB exchange rate trend is highly consistent with China's economic fundamentals**: In 2024, China's GDP growth rate and PMI showed a pattern of "high at the beginning, low in the middle, and rising at the end". The RMB exchange rate against a basket of currencies followed a similar trend. Policy introductions since late September 2024 boosted the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter and the RMB exchange rate. [8][17] - **The RMB exchange rate remained resilient against the backdrop of a strong US dollar**: In 2024, the "strong US dollar" was a key feature in the international foreign exchange market. Most developed and emerging market currencies depreciated against the US dollar, but Asian currencies, including the RMB, showed resilience due to strong economic performance. The RMB's relatively small depreciation against the US dollar led to its appreciation against a basket of currencies. [9][20] - **The continuous "inversion" of the Sino - US interest rate spread created adjustment pressure on the RMB exchange rate**: The difference in the 10 - year government bond yields between China and the US widened in 2024. The inflation trends in the two countries led to different trends in their 10 - year government bond yields, and the Sino - US interest rate spread and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar were strongly correlated. [29][32] 2025 RMB Exchange Rate Outlook - **Changes in domestic and foreign macro - events may intensify the volatility of the RMB exchange rate**: In 2025, the domestic expectation of more incremental counter - cyclical regulatory policies and Trump's re - election as the US president will make the global economic and trade pattern more volatile, which may magnify the exchange rate fluctuations of the RMB against the US dollar. [37][38] - **The differentiation of Sino - US monetary policies creates adjustment pressure on the RMB exchange rate**: China may implement more aggressive monetary easing policies, while the US will be more cautious about interest rate cuts due to inflation and tariff policies. The resulting continuous "inversion" of the Sino - US interest rate spread will be a "pressure source" for the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in 2025. [40][43] - **Stabilizing the RMB exchange rate depends on macro - prudential tools in the short term and positive macro - policies in the long term**: The central bank has increased its regulation of the RMB exchange rate, and short - term regulatory measures have achieved certain results. In the long run, expanding domestic demand, promoting innovation, and ensuring economic stability are the cornerstones for stabilizing the RMB exchange rate. [44][45]