以下文章来源于懒人养基 ，作者懒人养基 懒人养基 . 雪球2022年、2025度基金影响力用户，私企业主，经济学硕士，《基金投资全攻略》作者。早期靠创业获取主动收入，从17年开始，逐步将经营产生的余 钱、闲钱，几乎全部逢低买入权益基金，从赚取主动收入慢慢向赚取被动收入过渡。价值投资践行者。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 懒人养基 来源：雪球 过去五年，中国累计货物贸易顺差超过2.8万亿美元，但外汇储备规模始终维持在3.1-3.2万亿美元区间，并未出现同步增长。这一反常现象的背 后，是外贸企业将创汇大量留存境外。 究其原因，主要是中美利差倒挂与人民币贬值预期形成的"双杀"格局。2022年以来，美联储激进加息将美元利率推升至5%以上高位，而国内保持 宽松货币政策，人民币存款利率持续下行。企业持有美元存款可享受超过5%的无风险收益，若叠加人民币贬值，实际收益更为可观。这种套利驱 动下，企业结汇意愿降至冰点，转而选择"藏汇于外"，形成庞大的境外美元池。 据研究机构测算，这部分"滞留"境外的贸易顺差资金规模已达2.5万 ...

在演讲中，邓志超针对未来中国离岸金融的发展提出了几点展望思考： 第一，地缘政治影响中国离岸金融的需求。他提到，中国离岸金融的需求源动力来自于中国经贸和政治 在全球的地位。当前，毫无疑问的是中国已经从世界舞台的边缘走到了中央，发展离岸人民币交易成为 核心要点。这两方面对发展中国离岸金融有很明显的支撑作用。现阶段，地缘政治对中国的离岸金融发 展会产生两方面相反影响：一是降低美国及其同盟国投资中国、将资源投向中国的意愿，这是负面的； 另一个是有可能会激发中国及中国经济交往密切的经济主体选用人民币替代美元，这是好的方面。 "综合判断下，地缘政治影响短期内抑制外资流入，但是中长期会对人民币离岸创造提供历史性机遇。" 第二，中美利率倒挂加速中国对外投资的步伐。邓志超表示，当前与未来，会有资本持续放弃使用美元 体系，转而寻求人民币体系的支持，主要的推动力是境内融资向境外投资的交易模式。 当前，中美现在之间的利差倒挂在2.2%的水平。他提出的一个判断是，"未来即便美联储会降息，利差 倒挂现象依然会持续2-3年。而美国国内的通胀在3%左右，参考美联储FOMC会议12月的点阵图，美元 长期利率很有可能会在3%左右附近，依然会比人 ...

Summary of Offshore RMB Bond Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The offshore RMB bond market has evolved since its inception in 2007, going through four stages: initial development, gradual expansion, scale contraction, and renewed growth [1][3][4] - As of 2022, despite the inverted interest rate differential between China and the U.S., the issuance scale of offshore RMB bonds exceeded 400 billion RMB, with a projected increase to 800 billion RMB in 2024 [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Composition**: - The market is predominantly led by Chinese entities, with a projected share of 74% in 2024. The main types of bonds are certificates of deposit, followed by credit bonds and interest rate bonds [1][6] - The Hong Kong market is the largest offshore RMB market, with the issuance scale of dim sum bonds reaching 1.07 trillion RMB by the end of 2024, a 37% year-on-year increase [1][8] - **Issuance Trends**: - The issuance of dim sum bonds has shifted towards Chinese government entities, with the proportion of urban investment bonds increasing significantly from 2023 to 2025, expected to reach 47% by July 2025 [1][10] - The offshore RMB bond market has seen a significant influx of issuers due to low financing costs, with 2024 issuance expected to grow further [5][15] - **Investor Structure**: - The investor base has diversified, now including smaller brokerages, asset management firms, and private equity funds, alongside traditional large financial institutions [11] - The introduction of green bonds has attracted ESG-focused investors, with 85% of dim sum bonds currently held in the CME system [11] Important but Overlooked Content - **Investment Channels**: - Major investment channels for offshore RMB bonds include QDII, southbound trading, TRS, and Hong Kong mutual recognition funds, with QDII quotas being expanded to meet domestic demand [12][14] - **Interest Rate Dynamics**: - Offshore RMB interest rates generally align with onshore rates but exhibit a spread influenced by liquidity changes, central bank operations, and market supply-demand dynamics [13][16] - **Market Characteristics**: - The offshore RMB bond market is characterized by a predominance of medium to short-term bonds, with a notable increase in long-term bond issuance [6][7] - **Future Outlook**: - The market is expected to continue expanding due to supportive policies and increasing demand for offshore assets, particularly in a low-interest environment [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the People's Bank of China implementing interest rate cuts in Q4, the RMB is expected to appreciate, with the USD/RMB exchange rate projected to approach 7.0 by year-end under baseline conditions and 6.7 in optimistic scenarios [1] - The appreciation of the RMB is associated with improved market risk appetite, benefiting both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with the latter being more sensitive to foreign capital and global liquidity [1] - The macro report from China Galaxy Securities indicates signs of economic weakness in Q3, leading to a new policy waiting period, but there is no consensus on the expectation of interest rate cuts in Q4 [1] Group 2 - The current RMB appreciation is not driven by economic fundamentals but rather by a self-reinforcing cycle of exchange rate expectations and supply-demand dynamics in the foreign exchange market [2] - The Chinese government's low debt cost relative to economic growth and high efficiency in debt usage supports the exchange rate, with significant policy financial tools and special refinancing bonds expected to be implemented in Q4 [2] - An estimated $700 billion to $1 trillion in settlement demand may be released during the upcoming appreciation cycle, providing further support for the RMB exchange rate [2] Group 3 - Weak economic fundamentals typically correspond to lower valuations in the Chinese stock market, making it more attractive compared to other markets [3] - Significant interest rate cuts are expected to boost economic recovery expectations and enhance corporate profit forecasts, which are crucial for the performance of the Chinese stock market [3] Group 4 - In the US stock market, signals indicate that stock prices are relatively high, with the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 surpassing 40 for the first time since 2000, raising concerns about potential market corrections [6] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has warned that stock prices are relatively elevated, suggesting caution in the market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since 2025 and signaling the start of a new monetary easing cycle globally [2][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Rate Cut - The rate cut is primarily due to the persistent weakness in the U.S. labor market since May, reflecting a "preventive rate cut" characteristic as the Fed seeks to balance deteriorating employment and inflation pressures [5][6]. - The August non-farm payroll data showed only 22,000 new jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a sharp decline in job growth [5][6]. Group 2: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a possibility of two more rate cuts before the end of the year, with the Fed's dot plot indicating potential cuts in October and December, each by 25 basis points [7][10]. - The uncertainty surrounding inflation trends may complicate the rate cut process in the following year [7]. Group 3: Impact on China - The Fed's rate cut expands the space for monetary policy adjustments in China, indirectly affecting the Chinese stock and real estate markets through domestic macro policy changes [5][12]. - The potential for a passive appreciation of the RMB is noted, as the Fed's actions may reduce the extent of the U.S.-China interest rate differential [12][17]. Group 4: Global Market Implications - The rate cut is expected to support U.S. equities by reducing corporate financing costs, although the immediate impact may be limited due to prior market expectations [11][12]. - The global bond market is likely to benefit from increased liquidity, although the domestic bond market in China may not see significant changes due to its focus on local economic factors [15][16]. Group 5: Gold Market Outlook - The Fed's rate cut is viewed positively for international gold prices, which have already risen approximately 40% this year, with expectations of continued upward pressure due to geopolitical risks and the future trajectory of the U.S. dollar [19][20]. Group 6: Monitoring Future Economic Indicators - Key indicators to watch include U.S. inflation trends and China's export performance, which may influence future policy decisions and potential new stimulus measures [20].

Group 1 - The yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds increased by 2.0 basis points to 1.826% [1] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased by 7.0 basis points to 4.1% [1] - The spread between Chinese and U.S. bond yields narrowed to 227.0 basis points, a decrease of 9.0 basis points from the previous day, marking three consecutive days of narrowing [1]

Economic Indicators - In July, the total electricity consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, indicating structural changes in the economy [1][3] - Industrial electricity consumption accounts for nearly 60%, while traditional high-energy-consuming sectors such as chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, and building materials saw a collective decline in electricity usage [1][3] - High-tech manufacturing, electronic devices, biomedicine, and industrial robotics experienced electricity consumption growth rates exceeding 10% [3] Transportation and Financing - Railway freight volume has shown positive growth for six consecutive months, with July's freight volume reaching 452 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [3] - The balance of domestic and foreign currency loans remained above 272 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, indicating sustained financing willingness [3] Monetary Policy Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which would alleviate global funding cost pressures and expand China's monetary policy space [6] - Historical experience suggests that the LPR may be lowered by 10-15 basis points on September 22, aiming for a balance between stable exchange rates and supporting the real estate market [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Domestic policies are entering a sensitive phase, with intentions to stabilize the real estate market becoming evident [8] - Potential policy paths include urban village renovations, updating dilapidated housing, and supporting improvement demand, all pointing towards a high-quality housing market [8] - The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing and the potential for similar actions in Shanghai and Shenzhen may lead to a rebound in core city real estate markets if combined with interest rate cuts [8][10] Long-term Real Estate Trends - Historical patterns indicate that stock markets often rise before real estate markets, suggesting a potential correlation in the current cycle [10] - Despite concerns about population peaks and high vacancy rates, the continuous expansion of money supply supports the long-term upward trend in core city housing prices [11] - The urbanization rate in China has just crossed 66%, with population and resources still concentrating in major cities, reinforcing the demand for real estate [11] Investment Strategies - The current low down payment ratios and mortgage rates present favorable conditions for homebuyers, making it a rational choice to sell properties in non-core areas and invest in prime locations [13] - The potential for housing prices in top cities to increase by 3-5 times over the next two decades is supported by the natural results of compounding and deepening urbanization [13] - Investors are advised to focus on "hardcore assets" such as properties near subway stations, quality school districts, and industrial clusters, which provide liquidity support and resilience [18]

Domestic Aspects - Economic data for August shows low operating rates for midstream products, indicating continued effects of anti-involution policies, while upstream operating rates are stronger than last year, suggesting a rebound in infrastructure investment [1][3] - The week of August 10 saw a significant rebound in container and cargo throughput, exceeding historical levels, indicating continued support for exports [3][7] - The central bank's liquidity tightening intentions may be indicated if the DR007 rate rises above 1.5%, aligning with previous statements about addressing the misalignment of monetary policies between China and the US [1][3][7] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate, potentially returning to the 6 range, which would enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets [1][3][7] Overseas Aspects - The US July PPI data may lead the Federal Reserve to lock in a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the Jackson Hole meeting being a key observation window [4][8] - High PPI and weak CPI suggest that US businesses are absorbing most of the tariff costs, indicating a delayed transmission of inflation to consumer prices [4][8] - The US tariff policies are aimed at boosting domestic investment, with potential new legislation from Trump to enhance election prospects before the midterm elections [4][8] - A meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 resulted in positive statements, possibly driven by political performance pressures [4][8] Monetary Liquidity Tracking - The overall liquidity remains loose, with a slight increase in benchmark rates and positive net financing for government bonds [5][13] - The average weekly DR001 and DR007 rates have increased, indicating a tightening in the money market [14] - Government bond issuance is set to rise significantly next week, reflecting a decrease in pressure on government debt [15] Major Asset Performance - The A-share market saw a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing below 3700 [22] - The US stock market indices showed upward trends, while the bond market experienced adjustments [27] - Commodity prices for gold and crude oil have declined, while the RMB exchange rate remained stable against the dollar [27]

Core Viewpoint - The latest credit and social financing data from the central bank indicates strong growth in new RMB loans and social financing in Q1, reflecting effective macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and credit expansion, although structural issues in credit demand persist [1][2][4]. Group 1: Credit and Social Financing Data - In Q1, new RMB loans increased by 8.34 trillion yuan, up 663.6 billion yuan year-on-year, with March alone contributing 3.13 trillion yuan, aligning with expectations [1][2]. - The total social financing increment reached 12.06 trillion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 1.77 trillion yuan, with March's figure at 4.65 trillion yuan, significantly exceeding market expectations [1][2]. - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 9.7% year-on-year by the end of March, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point increase, indicating a rapid recovery [1]. Group 2: Structural Issues in Credit Demand - Despite strong total credit data, there remains a lack of effective credit demand from the real economy, particularly in investment and consumption from both enterprises and households [3][4]. - In March, household loans showed a positive growth trend but were still down by 394 billion yuan year-on-year, with short-term and medium-to-long-term loans decreasing by 139.4 billion yuan and 250.4 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - Corporate loans increased significantly, but the growth was primarily driven by short-term loans and bill financing, indicating weak long-term investment intentions from enterprises, with medium-to-long-term loans only slightly increasing by 14.8 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The importance of structural monetary policy tools is increasing, as the current economic environment necessitates a focus on targeted measures rather than relying solely on broad credit expansion [4][6]. - Analysts suggest that the second quarter may present a window for reserve requirement ratio cuts, but interest rate reductions face challenges due to narrowing or inverted US-China interest rate differentials [5]. - The central bank's approach will likely involve maintaining reasonable liquidity while ensuring stability in foreign trade and investment, with a focus on structural tools that directly impact the loan market [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of the Federal Reserve's unexpected tightening and imported inflation pressure on China's monetary policy is significant, with potential for further rate cuts and the introduction of new tools to support economic stability and assist enterprises [1] Group 1: Domestic and External Factors - Domestic inflation is expected to remain moderate, providing room for monetary policy adjustments, while the spillover effects of the Fed's rate hikes have peaked [2] - The overall inflation pressure in China is manageable despite structural price increases in commodities and tight supply-demand conditions in some agricultural products [2] - The focus of monetary policy will remain on stabilizing growth and ensuring adequate liquidity to support the real economy [2] Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - The impact of the potential interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is diminishing, and a temporary interest rate inversion will not hinder macroeconomic policy [3] - There is still room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions, contingent on economic performance [4] - The likelihood of a decline in the 5-year LPR is higher than that of the 1-year LPR, as the latter does not show strong necessity for a decrease [5] Group 3: Policy Tools and Measures - There is a need for additional policy tools to address uncertainties, with potential for new structural tools to be introduced [6] - Historical precedents suggest that monetary policy tools can extend beyond traditional measures like RRR cuts and interest rate reductions [7] - The People's Bank of China may consider reintroducing tools like the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) to provide stable long-term funding for specific sectors [7]