[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 跨境流动性跟踪 20260301 汇率政策组合拳如何影响流动性？ [Table_Summary] [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-02 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 03/25 05/25 07/25 10/25 12/25 02/26 银行 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | 021-38003646 | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 林虎 | | SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 | | SFC CE No. BWK411 | | 021-38003643 | | gflinhu@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | | 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 银行行业 ...

Policy Focus - The recent policies emphasize the urgency of implementing government work post-Spring Festival, with a focus on enhancing responsibility and aiming for annual targets[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0%, marking the first use of this tool in nearly three and a half years[2] - Various regions, including Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, have held "New Year First Meetings" to set the tone for the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on new productivity, private economy, and high-quality development[2] Real Estate and Economic Measures - Shanghai's "Seven Measures" include easing purchase restrictions and increasing public housing loan limits (up to 3.24 million yuan), aimed at stabilizing the real estate market[2] - The emphasis on establishing a correct view of performance has been reiterated in multiple meetings, including the State Council and the Central Party's construction work meeting[2] - The government is promoting the silver economy and elderly care services, enhancing consumption capabilities through subsidies and new consumption scenarios[4] Industry Development - Multiple departments are focusing on strengthening industries, particularly in low-altitude and "AI+" sectors, with initiatives to support low-altitude industry development and establish a comprehensive low-altitude insurance system[9] - The PBOC's recent policy aims to stabilize the RMB exchange rate and promote a neutral foreign exchange policy, indicating a shift towards supporting enterprises in managing currency risks[6] Upcoming Events and Expectations - Attention is drawn to the upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) sessions, where GDP growth targets are expected to be set between 4.5% and 5% for 2026, with a CPI target around 2%[2] - Key indicators to watch include whether the PMI can return to expansion territory and if credit can achieve a strong start in the first quarter[2]

Core Insights - The report highlights a downward adjustment of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales to 0%, effective from March 2, 2026, aimed at promoting foreign exchange market development and supporting enterprises in managing exchange rate risks [4] - The report indicates a stable and slightly easing liquidity in the financial market, with major repo rates continuing to decline, leading to a recovery in the bond market [1][11] - The report notes that the U.S. core PPI rose by 3.6% year-on-year in January, which may complicate future monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve [6] Domestic News - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to discuss the 14th Five-Year Plan and emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced the implementation of the Private Investment Fund Information Disclosure Supervision and Management Measures starting September 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing transparency in private fund operations [5] International News - The U.S. PPI data for January showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, exceeding expectations, which may lead to upward pressure on the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index [6] - The report mentions a general decline in the yields of 10-year government bonds across major European economies, indicating a shift in market sentiment [24] Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of recovery on February 27, with the yield on the 10-year government bond falling by 1.10 basis points to 1.8020% [14] - The report notes significant price deviations in the secondary market for credit bonds, with some experiencing drastic declines [16] - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline in major indices, with a trading volume of 765.99 billion yuan, indicating a bearish sentiment [18] Overseas Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury yields fell across various maturities, with the 10-year yield down to 4.02%, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions [21] - The report highlights a decline in the yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies, reflecting a broader trend of easing yields [24]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese central bank has implemented urgent policies to stabilize the yuan amid significant fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, aiming to counteract the rapid appreciation of the currency and prevent a potential financial crisis [2][11][30]. Group 1: Central Bank Policy Actions - On February 27, the People's Bank of China announced targeted foreign exchange market control policies, effective March 2, which included reducing the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward sales from 20% to 0% [6][11]. - The previous 20% reserve requirement increased costs for banks and ultimately for enterprises, making it more difficult for them to engage in forward foreign exchange transactions [8][11]. - The central bank's decision to eliminate this reserve requirement aims to lower the costs for enterprises hedging against exchange rate risks and to stabilize the foreign exchange market [11][23]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Impacts - As of early 2026, Chinese enterprises held foreign exchange deposits totaling $932.2 billion, nearly equivalent to Germany's annual GDP, reflecting a significant accumulation of foreign exchange positions [16]. - The rapid appreciation of the yuan has led to substantial exchange rate losses for companies holding foreign exchange, negating the benefits of interest rate differentials they previously enjoyed [18][21]. - In response to these losses, many enterprises began to sell dollars and buy yuan to lock in losses, which further exacerbated the yuan's appreciation and created a feedback loop of market pressure [21][23]. Group 3: Historical Context and Global Considerations - The central bank's policy adjustment is informed by historical precedents, particularly the 1985 Plaza Accord, which serves as a cautionary tale against allowing external forces to manipulate domestic economic conditions through currency interventions [26][28][30]. - The central bank has emphasized that it will not permit excessive unilateral appreciation of the yuan or abnormal capital flows, aiming to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market [30]. - The recent policy changes are part of a broader strategy to respond to global monetary dynamics and to safeguard the yuan's pricing power in the international market [24][30].

【内容摘要】2月27日，资金面稳中向宽，主要回购利率继续下行；债市止跌回暖；转债市场主要指数集体收跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普 遍下行，主要欧洲经济体10年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【中共中央政治局召开会议，讨论"十五五"规划纲要草案和政府工作报告】中共中央政治局2月27日召开会议，讨论国务院拟提请第十四届全国人民代表大 会第四次会议审查的中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要草案稿和审议的《政府工作报告》稿。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会 议强调，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，强化改革举措与宏观政策协同。要着力建设强大国内市场，加紧培育壮大新动能，加快高 水平科技自立自强。持续深化重点领域改革，进一步扩大高水平对外开放，扎实推进乡村全面振兴，推动新型城镇化和区域协调发展。更大力度保障和改善 民生，加快推动全面绿色转型，加强重点领域风险防范化解和安全能力建设。要加强政府自身建设，牢固树立和践行正确政绩观。 【远期售汇业务外汇风险准备金率下调至0】央行2月27日宣布，为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，自2026年3月2日起，将 ...

央行：将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率下调为0。 1月15日国新办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行宣布一揽子政策举措，鼓励金融机构提升汇率避险服务水 平。 上述专家表示，本次下调远期售汇风险准备金率，有助于金融机构为企业提供成本合理的汇率风险管理 产品，也是落实一揽子政策的具体体现。2025年，企业套期保值比率提升至30%，货物贸易中使用人民 币结算的比重也提高到近30%，相当于有60%的企业在外贸出口上，受到汇率风险的影响是比较小的， 未来这两个比例有望进一步提高，也有利于保持汇率稳定。 年初以来，受美元指数走弱等因素影响，人民币兑美元汇率持续升值，截至目前，在岸人民币兑美元汇 率升值幅度在2%左右。 央行表示，下一步，将继续引导金融机构优化对企业汇率避险服务，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上 的基本稳定。 在人民币兑美元汇率升至6.85附近之际，2月27日一早，中国人民银行（以下或称"央行"）官方发布消 息，为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，决定自2026年3月2日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇 风险准备金率从20%下调至0。 权威专家表示，此举能够降低企业远期购汇成本，提高企业在购汇方向开展外汇套保的积极性 ...

| 信息公开 | 新闻发布 法律法规 货币政策 宏观审慎 信贷政策 全融市场 金融稳定 调查统计 银行会计 支付体系 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金融科技 征信管理 党建工作 | 人民币 | 经理国库 国际交往 人员招录 | 学术交流 | | 反洗钱 | | 服务互动 | | | 政务公开 政策解读 公告信息 图文直播 央行研究 | | 音频视频 市场动态 网上展厅 报告下载 报刊年签 | | | | 网送文告 | 办事大厅 | 在线申报 下载中心 网上调查 | 意见征集 | 全融知识 关于我们 | | | | | 2026年2月27日 星期五 我的位置:首页 > 沟通交流 > 新闻 | | | | | NK OF CHINA 中国人民银行决定将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率下调为0 2026-02-27 08:30:48 扛印本页 关闭窗口 为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，中国人民银行决定自2026年3月2日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下 调至0。下一步，中国人民银行将继续引导金融机构优化 ...

来源：吴晓波频道CHANNELWU 当人民币汇率在升值的道路上一路狂奔，央妈终于亲自下场稳汇率。 2026年2月27日早8点，中国人民银行发布公告：为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，决定自2026年3月2日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准 备金率从20%下调至0。 | 40 | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行会计 | 支付体系 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 反洗钱 | 党建工作 | | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音频视频 | 市场动态 | 网上展厅 | 报告下载 | 报刊年鉴 | | | 网送文告 2026年2月27日 星 ...

来源：人民日报海外版 本报北京2月27日电（记者徐佩玉）记者27日从中国人民银行获悉，为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管 理好汇率风险，中国人民银行决定自2026年3月2日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下调 至0。这是自2022年9月中国人民银行将外汇风险准备金率上调至20%后，再次出手调整。 责任编辑：秦艺 来源：人民日报海外版 本报北京2月27日电（记者徐佩玉）记者27日从中国人民银行获悉，为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管 理好汇率风险，中国人民银行决定自2026年3月2日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下调 至0。这是自2022年9月中国人民银行将外汇风险准备金率上调至20%后，再次出手调整。 远期售汇业务是银行对企业提供的一种汇率避险衍生产品。业内人士普遍认为，此次下调能够降低企业 远期购汇成本，提高企业在购汇方向开展外汇套期保值的积极性，也有利于支持企业合理运用外汇衍生 产品管理好汇率风险。 下一步，中国人民银行将继续引导金融机构优化对企业汇率避险服务，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平 上的基本稳定。 《人民日报海外版》（2026年02月28日 第 03 版） 远期售汇业务是银行对企 ...

2月27日，中国人民银行宣布，为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，自2026年3月2日起， 将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下调至0。 有业内专家对《证券日报》记者表示，此举可降低企业远期购汇成本，提高企业在购汇方向开展外汇套 保的积极性，也有助于支持企业合理运用外汇衍生产品管理好汇率风险。 此次调整距离上次已时隔近三年半。2022年9月份，中国人民银行将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率 从0上调至20%。前述业内专家表示，本次下调远期售汇风险准备金率实质上是合理退出前期措施，促 进外汇政策回归中性。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 本报记者 刘 琪 "当准备金率为20%时，银行每开展一笔100美元的远期售汇业务，就需向中国人民银行冻结20美元且无 利息的资金，这笔成本最终会提高企业远期购汇的价格。"民生银行首席经济学家温彬对《证券日报》 记者表示，如今远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下调至0，意味着银行无需为此冻结资金，远 期购汇的成本也将随之降低。 此前，中国人民银行副行长邹澜在1月份国新办举行的新闻发布会上宣布了一揽子政策举措，其中就包 括" ...