21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道 近日，中央财办有关负责同志接受中央主要媒体采访，深入解读中央经济工作会议精神。 该负责人指出，2025年主要经济指标符合预期，预计全年经济增长5%左右、继续位居世界主要经济体前列，经济总量有望达到140万亿元左右。展望明年， 面临的困难挑战不少，但我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大等长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋 势没有改变。活跃的要素流动和创新为发展持续注入 新动能，投资和消费增速明年有望恢复，产业转型升级加快，科技和产业创新进入成果集中爆发阶段，我国经济发展前景十分光明。 该负责人围绕继续实施更加积极有为的宏观政策、提振消费和扩大投资、建设三大国际科技创新中心、综合整治"内卷式"竞争、推进高质量就业、着力稳定 房地产市场等方面，介绍2026年相关领域的主要部署和新举措。 继续实施更加积极有为的宏观政策 今年我国首次实施更加积极的财政政策，时隔14年再次实施适度宽松的货币政策，为推动经济持续回升向好发挥了重要作用。2026年，我国将继续实施更加 积极有为的宏观政策，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。 该负责人表示，明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。政策力度上 ...

会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续 扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建 设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升 和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 会议明确了2026年经济工作中的八大重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱 动，加紧培育壮大新动能等。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026 年经济工作。 经济长期向好的基本趋势没有变 会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年。党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，坚定不移 贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发展，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济社会 发展主要目标将顺利完成。 2025年我国经济将顺利完成经济社会发展主要目标，更加积极有为的宏观政策是重要支撑。 具体来看，财政政策方面，赤字率从2024年的3%显著提升至2025年的4%，新增地方专项债和超长期特 别国债等资金规模进一 ...

21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026 年经济工作。 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活 存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动 经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 会议明确了2026年经济工作中的八大重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能等。 经济长期向好的基本趋势没有变 会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年。党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发展，统 筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。 会议指出，我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，重点领域风险隐患较多。这些大多是 发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决的，我国经 ...

持续扩大内需和优化供给需要更加积极有为的宏观政策予以支撑。会议指出将继续实施更加积 极的财政政策。在财政资金使用上，需把"投资于物和投资于人"紧密结合在一起。"投资于 物"意味着加强重点领域财力保障，全力支持高水平科技自立自强、建设现代化产业体系、推 动经济社会发展全面绿色转型等。"投资于人"则聚焦加强民生保障，财税资源将优先保障教 育、社会保障等基本公共服务，加大对普惠养老和育儿支持体系的财政补贴与税收激励力度。 会议提出实施适度宽松的货币政策。维持宽松的货币环境，能够切实降低实体经济特别是企业 的融资成本，提振经营和投资信心，为经济持续回升向好提供稳定的金融环境。为了保持流动 性合理充裕，降低社会融资成本，预计可能实施降准、降息，重点在于加大逆周期与跨周期调 节力度，并且或将更加注重精准滴灌，通过结构性工具将资金引向科技创新、绿色发展、普惠 小微等重点领域。 综合来看，为更好地实现稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期的目标，财政政策需与货币政策紧 密协同，确保形成合力，共同服务于"十五五"开好局的大目标，同时也需为培育新质生产力、 实现中长期高质量发展预留空间和创造条件。总量上，财政的扩大支出与货币的流通性投放 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the economic outlook for China in the first quarter of 2025, focusing on GDP growth, fiscal policies, and responses to external trade challenges, particularly the US-China trade war [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Growth**: China's GDP grew by 4.59% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating a positive start to the year, but fiscal revenue remains weak, necessitating attention to fiscal spending [1][4]. - **Government Response**: The government is implementing measures to boost domestic demand to counteract the impact of the trade war, including enhancing consumer services and supporting struggling enterprises [1][5][6]. - **Fiscal Policy**: A total of 1.3 trillion yuan in special long-term bonds will be issued this year, with 500 billion yuan allocated for major project construction and equipment upgrades, aimed at stimulating consumption [1][11][12]. - **Monetary Policy Adjustments**: Anticipated adjustments to monetary policy may include interest rate cuts and the introduction of new structural monetary policy tools to support economic development [3][17]. - **Employment Stability**: The government emphasizes maintaining employment and economic stability through a comprehensive policy toolbox, including measures to support low-income and vulnerable populations affected by the trade war [2][14][18]. Additional Important Content - **Trade War Impact**: The trade war has significantly affected foreign trade, with direct trade nearly ceasing, which may impact economic performance in subsequent quarters [4][5]. - **Consumer Spending**: The government aims to enhance consumer spending by increasing the income of low- and middle-income groups and removing restrictions in certain consumption sectors [6][10]. - **Debt Management**: The government is addressing local government debts to ensure timely payments to enterprises, which is crucial for stabilizing the economy and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises [20][21]. - **Real Estate Market**: Measures are being taken to stabilize the real estate market, including purchasing existing properties and idle land through local government initiatives [21][22]. - **Social Safety Nets**: A layered social assistance system is being developed to provide comprehensive support for low-income and vulnerable groups, particularly in response to the economic downturn [14][18]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the economic strategies and challenges faced by China in 2025.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2024, the RMB exchange rate showed resilience in a complex macro - background. The nominal effective exchange rate index of the RMB increased, and it appreciated against a basket of currencies. Although it depreciated against the US dollar, it was less than most currencies. However, due to the continuous "inversion" of the Sino - US interest rate spread, there was always adjustment pressure on the RMB exchange rate. [8][15] - In 2025, changes in domestic and foreign macro - events may intensify the volatility of the RMB exchange rate. The scale of domestic incremental counter - cyclical regulatory policies and the overseas political and economic situation, especially Trump's re - election, will have an impact on the RMB exchange rate. The differentiation of Sino - US monetary policies may also cause adjustment pressure on the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar. [9][37] - In the short term, macro - prudential tools are crucial for stabilizing the RMB exchange rate, while in the long term, it depends on positive and effective macro - policies. [10][44] 3. Summary by Directory 2024 RMB Exchange Rate Review - **RMB exchange rate trend is highly consistent with China's economic fundamentals**: In 2024, China's GDP growth rate and PMI showed a pattern of "high at the beginning, low in the middle, and rising at the end". The RMB exchange rate against a basket of currencies followed a similar trend. Policy introductions since late September 2024 boosted the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter and the RMB exchange rate. [8][17] - **The RMB exchange rate remained resilient against the backdrop of a strong US dollar**: In 2024, the "strong US dollar" was a key feature in the international foreign exchange market. Most developed and emerging market currencies depreciated against the US dollar, but Asian currencies, including the RMB, showed resilience due to strong economic performance. The RMB's relatively small depreciation against the US dollar led to its appreciation against a basket of currencies. [9][20] - **The continuous "inversion" of the Sino - US interest rate spread created adjustment pressure on the RMB exchange rate**: The difference in the 10 - year government bond yields between China and the US widened in 2024. The inflation trends in the two countries led to different trends in their 10 - year government bond yields, and the Sino - US interest rate spread and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar were strongly correlated. [29][32] 2025 RMB Exchange Rate Outlook - **Changes in domestic and foreign macro - events may intensify the volatility of the RMB exchange rate**: In 2025, the domestic expectation of more incremental counter - cyclical regulatory policies and Trump's re - election as the US president will make the global economic and trade pattern more volatile, which may magnify the exchange rate fluctuations of the RMB against the US dollar. [37][38] - **The differentiation of Sino - US monetary policies creates adjustment pressure on the RMB exchange rate**: China may implement more aggressive monetary easing policies, while the US will be more cautious about interest rate cuts due to inflation and tariff policies. The resulting continuous "inversion" of the Sino - US interest rate spread will be a "pressure source" for the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in 2025. [40][43] - **Stabilizing the RMB exchange rate depends on macro - prudential tools in the short term and positive macro - policies in the long term**: The central bank has increased its regulation of the RMB exchange rate, and short - term regulatory measures have achieved certain results. In the long run, expanding domestic demand, promoting innovation, and ensuring economic stability are the cornerstones for stabilizing the RMB exchange rate. [44][45]