Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: After the Fed's expected 25bp rate cut last night, although the market had anticipated this, the rate cut still helps to support the macro sentiment. Most assets such as US stocks, crude oil, gold, and copper rose last night, which is also beneficial for the sentiment of the domestic commodity market to be supported. Methanol has limited upward momentum in the short - term due to inventory pressure and cost - profit factors, but it is difficult to fall significantly under the support of macro sentiment and may gradually stabilize [1] Key Data Summary Methanol Futures Prices - MA01 decreased from 2066 yuan/ton on December 9, 2025, to 2053 yuan/ton on December 10, 2025, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton or 0.63% [1] - MA05 decreased from 2143 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton or 0.65% [1] - MA09 decreased from 2143 yuan/ton to 2126 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton or 0.79% [1] Spot Prices - In Taicang, it increased from 2075 yuan/ton to 2077.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.12% [1] - In Shandong, it decreased from 2222.5 yuan/ton to 2220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.11% [1] - In Guangdong, it decreased from 2067.5 yuan/ton to 2060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.36% [1] Cost and Profit - Coal - to - methanol profit increased from 213.3 yuan/ton to 225.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.6 yuan/ton or 5.91% [1] - Northwest MTO profit decreased from -244.2 yuan/ton to -301.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.6 yuan/ton or 23.59% [1] - East China MTO profit decreased from -862.57 yuan/ton to -919.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton or 6.61% [1] Important Information - The domestic methanol main contract MA2601 showed a weak shock, opening at 2082 yuan/ton, closing at 2066 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 787,400 lots and an open interest of 723,600 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1] - Overseas, several methanol plants in a certain Middle - Eastern country are still under maintenance. As of December 7, the number of methanol shipments loaded at ports in the Middle - Eastern country in December reached around 350,000 tons [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the short put option of 01 contract until expiration (viewpoint score: 0) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The current low valuation of urea is the result of the market's consensus on the pressure of supply-demand surplus. The recent price decline is affected by cooling sentiment and falling coal prices. From the perspective of driving factors, the urea price is supported at a low level. With the support of macro sentiment, urea may gradually stabilize. It is recommended to go long on far-month contracts at low prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On December 10, UR01 was 1645 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day), UR05 was 1713 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan or 0.12%), UR09 was 1721 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.59%), and Henan was 1690 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.60%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Hebei, it was 1720 yuan/ton (unchanged), in the Northeast, it was 1740 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu, it was 1680 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Spreads**: The spread between Shandong spot and UR was -13 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan from the previous day), and the 01 - 05 spread was -68 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi were 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively (both unchanged). The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan were 3160 yuan/ton and 2670 yuan/ton respectively (both unchanged). The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu were 5233 yuan/ton and 5250 yuan/ton respectively (both unchanged) [1] 2. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1650 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1655 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1640 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1645 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1647 yuan/ton, and the持仓 volume was 142790 lots [1] 3. Market Logic - **Bullish and Bearish Logic**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected last night, which helped support the macro - sentiment. Most assets such as U.S. stocks, crude oil, gold, and copper rose, which is also beneficial to the sentiment of the domestic commodity market. Urea has a limited rebound from the bottom, and its valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. There is still an expectation of supply reduction in mid - to - late December. On the demand side, export quotas can relieve the domestic supply - demand pressure, and the winter reserve demand can support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Go long on far - month contracts at low prices (viewpoint score: 0) [1]